Southland
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
92 McNeese St. 55.8%   13   3 - 5 0 - 0 21 - 8 17 - 3 +6.0      +3.1 96 +2.8 102 64.7 290 +2.1 136 0.0 4
179 Lamar 13.2%   3 - 5 2 - 0 16 - 12 14 - 6 -1.0      -1.9 229 +1.0 138 66.5 250 -3.8 231 +15.7 1
190 TX A&M Corpus Christi 9.7%   4 - 5 1 - 1 15 - 13 12 - 8 -1.4      -0.9 196 -0.5 189 70.8 125 -5.0 255 -4.8 5
214 Stephen F. Austin 5.9%   3 - 6 0 - 2 14 - 14 11 - 9 -2.7      -6.7 344 +4.0 78 64.6 293 -5.3 259 -14.9 9
230 SE Louisiana 4.5%   4 - 6 0 - 1 15 - 14 11 - 9 -3.7      -4.7 311 +1.0 137 68.0 207 -3.7 229 -16.8 10
233 UT Rio Grande Valley 4.6%   4 - 4 1 - 1 14 - 13 11 - 9 -3.8      -0.6 187 -3.2 278 76.5 27 -1.3 187 -4.8 5
243 Nicholls St. 3.8%   4 - 4 2 - 0 13 - 15 11 - 9 -4.6      -3.1 255 -1.5 215 68.3 198 -2.2 204 +5.8 3
296 Northwestern St. 1.5%   3 - 6 2 - 0 11 - 17 10 - 10 -7.0      -4.2 294 -2.8 261 63.9 311 -4.6 244 +8.3 2
307 Incarnate Word 0.8%   4 - 5 1 - 1 12 - 15 9 - 11 -7.8      -1.0 200 -6.8 352 64.9 287 -9.1 314 -13.3 7
346 New Orleans 0.1%   2 - 7 0 - 1 8 - 23 6 - 14 -11.7      -6.0 333 -5.7 339 74.1 62 -8.5 307 -16.8 10
356 Houston Christian 0.0%   1 - 7 1 - 1 5 - 24 5 - 15 -13.1      -5.3 323 -7.9 356 64.1 308 -18.7 361 -13.3 7
357 Texas A&M - Commerce 0.0%   1 - 8 0 - 2 6 - 25 4 - 16 -13.5      -7.6 355 -5.9 343 66.5 249 -14.5 347 -23.3 12





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th
McNeese St. 1.4 76.9 14.0 5.0 2.0 1.1 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
Lamar 2.9 19.0 34.5 18.3 11.1 7.0 4.4 2.7 1.8 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0
TX A&M Corpus Christi 4.2 6.8 19.0 20.4 15.9 12.4 9.4 6.9 4.8 2.7 1.2 0.4 0.1
Stephen F. Austin 5.3 2.3 9.5 13.4 15.1 14.9 13.3 11.3 9.2 6.3 3.1 1.3 0.4
SE Louisiana 5.3 2.9 10.4 13.7 15.0 14.3 12.8 11.2 8.5 6.3 3.1 1.3 0.5
UT Rio Grande Valley 5.5 2.5 8.6 12.5 13.8 13.8 13.3 12.0 10.1 7.5 3.9 1.5 0.4
Nicholls St. 5.4 3.1 10.2 12.6 13.3 13.3 13.0 12.2 10.3 7.2 3.4 1.2 0.3
Northwestern St. 6.3 1.3 5.4 8.1 10.7 12.5 13.5 14.7 13.9 10.9 6.0 2.3 0.7
Incarnate Word 7.4 0.3 2.7 4.5 6.7 8.7 11.0 13.3 15.9 16.5 11.8 6.2 2.4
New Orleans 9.6 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.3 2.4 3.8 5.8 9.3 15.0 23.3 21.0 17.2
Houston Christian 10.1 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.6 1.2 2.1 3.7 6.6 12.2 22.1 28.6 22.2
Texas A&M - Commerce 10.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 1.1 2.1 4.4 8.4 17.7 28.6 36.9




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0
McNeese St. 17 - 3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.9 1.7 3.4 6.2 10.2 14.6 19.0 20.3 16.0 7.3
Lamar 14 - 6 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.2 2.6 4.5 7.3 11.0 13.9 15.8 15.5 12.7 8.5 4.5 1.5 0.3
TX A&M Corpus Christi 12 - 8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.9 2.2 4.0 6.7 10.0 13.1 15.0 15.4 13.1 9.8 5.7 2.7 0.9 0.1
Stephen F. Austin 11 - 9 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.3 2.7 5.1 8.2 11.2 14.3 15.5 14.4 11.9 8.0 4.4 1.7 0.4 0.1
SE Louisiana 11 - 9 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.3 2.7 5.0 8.0 10.8 13.7 15.0 14.0 11.8 8.4 5.0 2.5 0.8 0.2 0.0
UT Rio Grande Valley 11 - 9 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.5 3.4 6.1 9.1 12.0 14.3 14.6 13.3 10.5 7.4 4.1 1.9 0.7 0.2 0.0
Nicholls St. 11 - 9 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.4 3.3 5.8 8.9 12.0 14.1 14.0 13.2 10.5 7.6 4.7 2.3 1.0 0.3 0.1 0.0
Northwestern St. 10 - 10 0.0 0.3 1.1 2.6 5.4 9.1 12.4 14.9 15.0 13.4 10.8 7.0 4.3 2.3 0.9 0.3 0.1 0.0
Incarnate Word 9 - 11 0.1 0.4 1.5 3.7 6.6 9.9 12.7 14.8 14.3 12.8 9.8 6.5 3.8 1.9 0.9 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
New Orleans 6 - 14 0.5 2.3 5.5 9.7 13.6 15.3 15.2 13.5 9.6 6.6 4.1 2.3 1.0 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0
Houston Christian 5 - 15 2.7 8.2 13.7 17.5 17.1 14.7 10.8 7.1 4.2 2.1 1.2 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
Texas A&M - Commerce 4 - 16 1.7 6.6 12.6 17.6 18.1 15.9 11.8 7.6 4.3 2.2 1.0 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
McNeese St. 76.9% 66.1 9.4 1.3 0.2 0.0
Lamar 19.0% 11.6 6.2 1.0 0.1 0.0
TX A&M Corpus Christi 6.8% 3.5 2.6 0.6 0.1 0.0
Stephen F. Austin 2.3% 1.0 0.9 0.3 0.1 0.0
SE Louisiana 2.9% 1.3 1.1 0.4 0.1 0.0
UT Rio Grande Valley 2.5% 1.1 1.0 0.3 0.1 0.0
Nicholls St. 3.1% 1.5 1.2 0.3 0.1 0.0
Northwestern St. 1.3% 0.5 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0
Incarnate Word 0.3% 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
New Orleans 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Houston Christian 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
Texas A&M - Commerce 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
McNeese St. 55.8% 55.8% 0.0% 13   0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.4 0.5 4.0 19.2 19.3 9.5 2.1 0.1 44.2 0.0%
Lamar 13.2% 13.2% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 1.7 3.9 5.1 2.2 86.8 0.0%
TX A&M Corpus Christi 9.7% 9.7% 0.0% 0.0 0.2 1.4 3.1 3.7 1.3 90.3 0.0%
Stephen F. Austin 5.9% 5.9% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.7 2.4 1.2 94.1 0.0%
SE Louisiana 4.5% 4.5% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.2 1.0 2.0 1.3 95.5 0.0%
UT Rio Grande Valley 4.6% 4.6% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.4 1.9 0.8 95.4 0.0%
Nicholls St. 3.8% 3.8% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.9 1.6 1.0 96.2 0.0%
Northwestern St. 1.5% 1.5% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.6 0.8 98.5 0.0%
Incarnate Word 0.8% 0.8% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 99.2 0.0%
New Orleans 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 99.9 0.0%
Houston Christian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0%
Texas A&M - Commerce 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
McNeese St. 55.8% 0.0% 55.8% 10.9% 2.9% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Lamar 13.2% 0.6% 13.0% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
TX A&M Corpus Christi 9.7% 0.4% 9.5% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Stephen F. Austin 5.9% 0.4% 5.7% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
SE Louisiana 4.5% 0.4% 4.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
UT Rio Grande Valley 4.6% 0.2% 4.5% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Nicholls St. 3.8% 0.4% 3.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Northwestern St. 1.5% 0.4% 1.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Incarnate Word 0.8% 0.3% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
New Orleans 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Houston Christian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Texas A&M - Commerce 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.0 100.0 0.0
1st Round 98.5% 1.0 1.5 98.5 0.0
2nd Round 12.8% 0.1 87.2 12.8
Sweet Sixteen 3.2% 0.0 96.8 3.2
Elite Eight 0.5% 0.0 99.5 0.5
Final Four 0.1% 0.0 99.9 0.1
Final Game 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0