Southland
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
73 McNeese St. 69.7%   12   12 - 5 8 - 0 22 - 7 18 - 2 +7.7      +3.6 88 +4.1 71 64.7 280 +5.5 97 +8.3 1
180 TX A&M Corpus Christi 11.0%   9 - 7 6 - 2 16 - 12 13 - 7 -0.9      0.0 178 -0.9 206 70.9 110 -1.6 200 -0.5 3
211 Nicholls St. 5.1%   8 - 8 5 - 3 15 - 13 12 - 8 -2.6      -0.7 197 -1.9 236 70.8 115 -1.4 193 -3.0 7
219 SE Louisiana 5.5%   9 - 8 5 - 3 16 - 13 12 - 8 -3.3      -3.2 255 -0.1 176 67.6 214 -1.5 196 -0.4 2
222 Lamar 4.5%   7 - 9 5 - 3 14 - 14 12 - 8 -3.4      -3.4 258 0.0 174 66.2 237 -3.8 235 -0.6 4
239 UT Rio Grande Valley 2.3%   8 - 7 4 - 4 14 - 13 10 - 10 -4.4      -1.3 212 -3.1 265 72.6 79 -3.2 224 -6.0 8
252 Stephen F. Austin 0.5%   5 - 11 1 - 7 12 - 16 8 - 12 -5.1      -8.2 352 +3.1 90 66.4 234 -7.6 292 -15.2 11
284 Northwestern St. 0.7%   6 - 10 5 - 3 11 - 17 10 - 10 -7.0      -3.6 270 -3.5 274 62.0 341 -4.8 246 -2.3 5
308 Houston Christian 0.5%   6 - 11 5 - 3 11 - 18 10 - 10 -8.2      -4.4 293 -3.8 286 66.0 242 -7.4 286 -2.4 6
309 Incarnate Word 0.3%   5 - 10 2 - 6 10 - 17 7 - 13 -8.4      -1.0 205 -7.4 351 64.4 288 -10.6 323 -12.9 10
345 New Orleans 0.0%   4 - 15 2 - 6 8 - 23 6 - 14 -12.0      -5.6 321 -6.4 342 73.5 62 -8.6 306 -9.9 9
354 Texas A&M - Commerce 0.0%   2 - 15 0 - 8 5 - 26 3 - 17 -13.5      -8.4 354 -5.1 323 67.5 215 -14.7 347 -22.3 12





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th
McNeese St. 1.0 98.4 1.3 0.2 0.1 0.0
TX A&M Corpus Christi 3.0 2.9 46.3 23.2 13.4 7.2 4.4 1.7 0.7 0.2 0.0 0.0
Nicholls St. 4.2 0.4 20.9 19.2 18.6 16.6 11.1 7.2 4.3 1.3 0.3 0.1
SE Louisiana 3.7 0.9 28.1 25.5 18.3 12.2 7.8 4.3 2.0 0.8 0.2
Lamar 4.2 0.7 20.7 20.9 18.4 15.2 11.0 7.1 4.0 1.6 0.4 0.0
UT Rio Grande Valley 6.2 0.0 3.6 7.2 10.9 14.7 16.9 17.4 15.5 8.9 4.0 0.8 0.0
Stephen F. Austin 8.5 0.1 0.6 2.0 4.2 7.6 11.8 16.6 23.3 22.0 10.4 1.6
Northwestern St. 6.1 0.1 4.1 8.5 11.6 15.1 16.8 16.7 13.4 9.5 3.7 0.6 0.0
Houston Christian 6.3 0.0 4.0 6.9 9.9 14.0 17.1 18.0 15.8 9.0 4.0 1.3 0.0
Incarnate Word 9.0 0.1 0.4 1.2 2.5 4.9 8.9 14.3 23.1 26.4 16.4 2.0
New Orleans 10.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.7 3.0 6.2 13.3 25.3 43.0 6.9
Texas A&M - Commerce 11.7 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.2 4.3 16.4 77.7




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0
McNeese St. 18 - 2 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.9 6.2 15.1 26.0 31.4 18.8
TX A&M Corpus Christi 13 - 7 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.6 4.6 10.0 17.0 21.8 20.8 15.0 6.8 1.9 0.2
Nicholls St. 12 - 8 0.1 0.8 3.1 8.1 13.3 19.2 20.2 17.4 11.3 5.0 1.3 0.2
SE Louisiana 12 - 8 0.0 0.0 0.3 1.3 4.2 9.2 15.5 21.5 21.3 15.5 8.5 2.4 0.4
Lamar 12 - 8 0.0 0.2 0.9 3.1 7.6 13.0 18.4 19.4 17.9 12.1 5.6 1.7 0.3
UT Rio Grande Valley 10 - 10 0.1 0.6 2.5 7.4 14.2 19.2 20.9 17.1 11.1 5.0 1.6 0.3 0.0
Stephen F. Austin 8 - 12 0.3 1.1 4.0 8.6 14.8 20.4 19.5 16.4 9.5 4.2 1.0 0.1
Northwestern St. 10 - 10 0.3 1.8 7.0 13.8 18.5 20.0 17.0 12.2 6.4 2.4 0.6 0.1
Houston Christian 10 - 10 0.6 2.6 7.6 14.3 19.8 20.8 16.1 10.2 5.3 2.1 0.5 0.1 0.0
Incarnate Word 7 - 13 0.3 1.8 5.8 12.0 19.0 21.2 18.3 12.5 6.2 2.3 0.7 0.1
New Orleans 6 - 14 1.4 8.2 16.4 23.1 21.8 15.1 8.8 3.6 1.3 0.3 0.0 0.0
Texas A&M - Commerce 3 - 17 5.8 16.6 24.5 22.7 17.3 8.3 3.4 1.2 0.4 0.1 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
McNeese St. 98.4% 95.4 2.8 0.2 0.1
TX A&M Corpus Christi 2.9% 1.0 1.7 0.2 0.1
Nicholls St. 0.4% 0.0 0.3 0.1 0.0
SE Louisiana 0.9% 0.2 0.5 0.1 0.1
Lamar 0.7% 0.2 0.4 0.1 0.0
UT Rio Grande Valley 0.0% 0.0 0.0
Stephen F. Austin
Northwestern St. 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Houston Christian 0.0% 0.0 0.0
Incarnate Word
New Orleans
Texas A&M - Commerce


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
McNeese St. 69.7% 69.7% 0.0% 12   0.0 0.0 0.3 0.9 12.2 38.6 15.8 1.8 0.0 30.3 0.0%
TX A&M Corpus Christi 11.0% 11.0% 0.0% 0.0 0.2 1.8 4.4 4.0 0.6 89.0 0.0%
Nicholls St. 5.1% 5.1% 0.0% 0.0 0.3 1.5 2.3 0.9 94.9 0.0%
SE Louisiana 5.5% 5.5% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.2 1.2 2.9 1.1 94.5 0.0%
Lamar 4.5% 4.5% 0.0% 0.1 0.8 2.3 1.3 95.5 0.0%
UT Rio Grande Valley 2.3% 2.3% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.2 0.5 97.7 0.0%
Stephen F. Austin 0.5% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0 0.3 0.3 99.5 0.0%
Northwestern St. 0.7% 0.7% 0.0% 0.0 0.3 0.4 99.3 0.0%
Houston Christian 0.5% 0.5% 0.0% 0.1 0.5 99.5 0.0%
Incarnate Word 0.3% 0.3% 0.0% 0.1 0.2 99.7 0.0%
New Orleans 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0%
Texas A&M - Commerce 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
McNeese St. 69.7% 0.0% 69.7% 14.9% 3.7% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
TX A&M Corpus Christi 11.0% 0.1% 11.0% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Nicholls St. 5.1% 0.2% 5.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
SE Louisiana 5.5% 0.2% 5.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Lamar 4.5% 0.4% 4.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
UT Rio Grande Valley 2.3% 0.1% 2.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Stephen F. Austin 0.5% 0.1% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Northwestern St. 0.7% 0.2% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Houston Christian 0.5% 0.4% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Incarnate Word 0.3% 0.1% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
New Orleans 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Texas A&M - Commerce 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.0 100.0
1st Round 99.1% 1.0 0.9 99.1
2nd Round 15.8% 0.2 84.2 15.8
Sweet Sixteen 3.8% 0.0 96.2 3.8
Elite Eight 0.7% 0.0 99.3 0.7
Final Four 0.1% 0.0 99.9 0.1
Final Game 0.0% 0.0 100.0
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0