Southland
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
99 McNeese St. 50.3%   14   0 - 2 0 - 0 20 - 7 17 - 3 +5.1      +2.9 96 +2.2 104 64.7 313 -9.3 313 0.0 1
171 Stephen F. Austin 17.2%   0 - 1 0 - 0 17 - 11 13 - 7 -0.6      -1.7 221 +1.1 134 69.6 174 -4.8 266 0.0 1
212 Nicholls St. 9.2%   0 - 2 0 - 0 14 - 14 12 - 8 -2.8      -1.0 194 -1.9 235 66.1 276 -14.7 344 0.0 1
219 TX A&M Corpus Christi 9.1%   0 - 2 0 - 0 15 - 13 12 - 8 -3.0      -1.9 234 -1.1 207 71.8 107 +1.0 173 0.0 1
269 UT Rio Grande Valley 4.1%   0 - 2 0 - 0 12 - 14 10 - 10 -5.7      -1.7 218 -4.0 313 76.5 34 +0.2 192 0.0 1
276 SE Louisiana 4.0%   0 - 2 0 - 0 12 - 16 11 - 9 -6.0      -3.4 278 -2.6 252 65.4 298 -2.5 237 0.0 1
280 Lamar 3.6%   0 - 1 0 - 0 12 - 16 10 - 10 -6.2      -2.5 248 -3.7 299 70.1 160 +2.6 143 0.0 1
327 Incarnate Word 1.2%   1 - 1 0 - 0 11 - 16 9 - 11 -9.5      -1.9 232 -7.5 361 73.4 77 -6.6 285 0.0 1
332 Northwestern St. 0.8%   0 - 2 0 - 0 9 - 19 8 - 12 -9.8      -5.2 327 -4.6 325 68.6 200 +1.4 162 0.0 1
347 New Orleans 0.2%   0 - 2 0 - 0 8 - 23 7 - 13 -12.3      -5.6 331 -6.7 355 76.1 36 -9.6 315 0.0 1
353 Texas A&M - Commerce 0.2%   1 - 1 0 - 0 8 - 23 6 - 14 -13.1      -7.9 356 -5.2 337 65.7 292 +3.3 129 0.0 1
358 Houston Christian 0.1%   0 - 2 0 - 0 7 - 22 5 - 15 -14.3      -6.3 337 -8.0 362 73.4 76 +3.3 131 0.0 1





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th
McNeese St. 1.6 69.1 17.1 7.1 3.3 1.8 0.9 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
Stephen F. Austin 3.4 17.2 26.2 17.9 12.7 9.2 6.0 4.5 2.8 1.7 1.0 0.5 0.2
Nicholls St. 4.4 9.0 16.7 17.1 15.0 12.1 9.9 7.3 5.4 3.8 2.3 1.2 0.4
TX A&M Corpus Christi 4.4 8.9 16.5 16.9 14.8 12.5 9.8 7.6 5.5 3.9 2.2 1.1 0.5
UT Rio Grande Valley 5.9 3.4 8.6 11.0 12.2 12.2 12.0 11.6 10.0 8.0 5.8 3.6 1.7
SE Louisiana 5.6 3.6 9.0 12.6 13.0 12.9 12.1 11.0 8.9 7.1 4.9 3.2 1.6
Lamar 6.0 3.1 8.2 10.2 11.6 12.6 11.9 11.3 10.1 8.2 6.4 4.2 2.2
Incarnate Word 7.1 1.1 4.1 6.4 8.5 10.3 11.5 12.1 11.8 11.3 10.1 7.7 5.0
Northwestern St. 7.9 0.7 2.2 3.9 6.0 7.9 9.6 11.3 12.7 13.6 13.0 11.2 7.9
New Orleans 8.9 0.2 0.8 2.0 3.4 4.8 6.7 8.8 10.7 13.8 16.1 17.1 15.7
Texas A&M - Commerce 9.4 0.1 0.5 1.2 2.3 3.6 5.4 7.6 10.6 13.1 16.5 19.3 19.8
Houston Christian 9.7 0.1 0.4 1.1 1.7 3.0 4.4 6.4 9.0 11.6 16.0 20.3 25.9




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0
McNeese St. 17 - 3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.7 1.3 2.4 3.9 6.2 9.8 13.6 16.7 18.5 16.7 9.5
Stephen F. Austin 13 - 7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.9 1.5 2.6 4.4 6.0 8.4 10.4 11.9 12.9 12.7 11.2 8.6 5.0 2.2 0.6
Nicholls St. 12 - 8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.2 2.1 3.7 5.1 7.4 9.5 11.2 11.9 12.1 11.2 9.3 6.9 4.5 2.1 0.8 0.2
TX A&M Corpus Christi 12 - 8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 1.2 2.2 3.5 5.7 7.6 9.2 11.4 12.2 12.1 11.1 9.2 6.6 4.1 2.2 0.7 0.2
UT Rio Grande Valley 10 - 10 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.0 2.1 3.7 5.6 7.5 9.6 11.4 11.3 11.5 10.3 8.8 6.8 4.7 2.8 1.5 0.6 0.2 0.0
SE Louisiana 11 - 9 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.9 1.6 3.1 4.7 6.8 8.9 10.5 11.9 11.7 10.8 9.7 7.9 5.3 3.3 1.7 0.6 0.2 0.0
Lamar 10 - 10 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.3 2.5 4.0 6.0 7.7 9.7 11.0 11.4 11.1 10.6 8.1 6.4 4.6 2.6 1.5 0.5 0.2 0.0
Incarnate Word 9 - 11 0.1 0.5 1.3 2.8 4.6 6.7 9.2 10.6 11.5 11.5 10.8 9.5 7.6 5.5 3.6 2.1 1.2 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0
Northwestern St. 8 - 12 0.2 0.9 2.4 4.3 7.1 9.4 11.0 12.5 12.1 10.8 9.3 7.2 5.4 3.4 2.0 1.2 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
New Orleans 7 - 13 0.7 2.4 4.9 8.5 10.9 12.4 13.0 12.0 10.1 8.3 6.2 4.5 2.9 1.7 0.9 0.4 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
Texas A&M - Commerce 6 - 14 1.0 3.3 6.7 9.8 12.4 13.3 13.1 11.8 9.8 7.0 5.0 3.2 1.9 0.9 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
Houston Christian 5 - 15 1.6 4.8 8.6 11.7 13.6 13.5 12.4 10.2 8.2 6.0 4.0 2.5 1.5 0.8 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
McNeese St. 69.1% 58.1 9.5 1.4 0.2 0.0
Stephen F. Austin 17.2% 11.1 5.1 0.9 0.1 0.0
Nicholls St. 9.0% 5.3 2.9 0.7 0.1 0.0
TX A&M Corpus Christi 8.9% 5.0 3.0 0.7 0.1 0.0
UT Rio Grande Valley 3.4% 1.7 1.3 0.3 0.1
SE Louisiana 3.6% 1.8 1.2 0.4 0.1 0.0
Lamar 3.1% 1.7 1.1 0.3 0.0
Incarnate Word 1.1% 0.5 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0
Northwestern St. 0.7% 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0
New Orleans 0.2% 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
Texas A&M - Commerce 0.1% 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
Houston Christian 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
McNeese St. 50.3% 50.2% 0.0% 14   0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.3 0.4 2.4 9.7 14.1 12.4 7.2 2.8 49.7 0.0%
Stephen F. Austin 17.2% 17.1% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 1.4 3.3 4.8 4.6 2.8 82.9 0.0%
Nicholls St. 9.2% 9.2% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.8 2.0 3.0 3.3 90.8 0.0%
TX A&M Corpus Christi 9.1% 9.1% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 1.2 2.4 3.3 2.0 90.9 0.0%
UT Rio Grande Valley 4.1% 4.1% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.4 1.4 95.9 0.0%
SE Louisiana 4.0% 4.0% 0.0% 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.3 1.9 96.0 0.0%
Lamar 3.6% 3.6% 0.0% 0.0 0.2 0.8 1.2 1.3 96.4 0.0%
Incarnate Word 1.2% 1.2% 0.0% 0.1 0.3 0.8 98.8 0.0%
Northwestern St. 0.8% 0.8% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 99.2 0.0%
New Orleans 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.2 99.8 0.0%
Texas A&M - Commerce 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.1 99.8 0.0%
Houston Christian 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.1 99.9 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
McNeese St. 50.3% 0.8% 49.9% 9.4% 2.6% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Stephen F. Austin 17.2% 1.0% 16.7% 1.5% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Nicholls St. 9.2% 1.6% 8.5% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
TX A&M Corpus Christi 9.1% 0.8% 8.7% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
UT Rio Grande Valley 4.1% 0.5% 3.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
SE Louisiana 4.0% 0.9% 3.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Lamar 3.6% 0.6% 3.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Incarnate Word 1.2% 0.5% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Northwestern St. 0.8% 0.3% 0.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
New Orleans 0.2% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Texas A&M - Commerce 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Houston Christian 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.0 100.0 0.0
1st Round 96.8% 1.0 3.3 96.7 0.0
2nd Round 12.3% 0.1 87.7 12.3
Sweet Sixteen 3.1% 0.0 96.9 3.1
Elite Eight 0.6% 0.0 99.4 0.6
Final Four 0.1% 0.0 99.9 0.1
Final Game 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0