Preseason Rankings
Projected NCAA Tournament Seeding
2024-25

Last Updated: Oct 29, 2024

View: Probabilistic Seeding


Seed Team Bid Type Bid Chance Auto-Chance At-Large Chance At-Large If Not Auto
Connecticut Auto 96.9% 42.4% 54.5% 94.6%
Kansas Auto 94.3% 21.3% 73.0% 92.8%
Alabama Auto 92.3% 22.9% 69.3% 90.0%
Houston At-Large 94.4% 20.7% 73.6% 92.9%
Duke Auto 93.3% 31.3% 62.0% 90.2%
Auburn At-Large 84.6% 14.5% 70.1% 82.0%
Arizona At-Large 84.5% 11.4% 73.1% 82.5%
Baylor At-Large 83.3% 12.0% 71.2% 81.0%
Purdue Auto 83.5% 15.5% 68.0% 80.5%
Iowa St. At-Large 85.0% 12.0% 73.0% 83.0%
North Carolina At-Large 86.9% 21.8% 65.1% 83.3%
Gonzaga Auto 86.4% 54.4% 32.0% 70.3%
Kentucky At-Large 74.6% 7.8% 66.8% 72.5%
Creighton At-Large 79.3% 14.7% 64.6% 75.7%
Tennessee At-Large 75.4% 9.2% 66.2% 72.9%
Arkansas At-Large 72.4% 8.4% 64.0% 69.9%
St. John's At-Large 69.4% 9.8% 59.6% 66.1%
Texas A&M At-Large 65.3% 6.5% 58.7% 62.8%
Marquette At-Large 64.2% 8.1% 56.1% 61.1%
Florida At-Large 62.4% 5.5% 57.0% 60.3%
Michigan At-Large 60.5% 6.4% 54.1% 57.8%
UCLA At-Large 64.1% 7.5% 56.6% 61.2%
Indiana At-Large 65.6% 8.4% 57.3% 62.5%
Illinois At-Large 64.0% 8.2% 55.8% 60.8%
Rutgers At-Large 59.9% 6.5% 53.4% 57.1%
Texas Tech At-Large 63.9% 4.8% 59.1% 62.1%
Michigan St. At-Large 63.0% 7.3% 55.7% 60.0%
Texas At-Large 62.7% 6.8% 55.9% 60.0%
Cincinnati At-Large 59.2% 3.8% 55.4% 57.6%
Ohio St. At-Large 55.8% 6.2% 49.6% 52.9%
Mississippi St. At-Large 53.2% 4.0% 49.2% 51.2%
Wisconsin At-Large 48.6% 4.2% 44.4% 46.4%
Seed Team Bid Type Bid Chance Auto-Chance At-Large Chance At-Large If Not Auto
Oregon At-Large 55.6% 5.4% 50.2% 53.1%
BYU At-Large 55.5% 3.8% 51.7% 53.8%
Maryland At-Large 52.3% 5.2% 47.1% 49.7%
Kansas St. At-Large 49.9% 2.9% 47.0% 48.4%
10  Xavier At-Large 56.1% 7.5% 48.6% 52.5%
10  Villanova At-Large 52.3% 6.3% 46.0% 49.1%
10  Mississippi At-Large 49.5% 3.8% 45.7% 47.5%
10  Iowa At-Large 46.2% 4.0% 42.1% 43.9%
10  Wake Forest At-Large 47.7% 5.1% 42.6% 44.9%
11  USC At-Large 43.9% 3.6% 40.3% 41.8%
11  Miami (FL) At-Large 47.4% 5.8% 41.6% 44.2%
11  San Diego St. Auto 44.5% 21.3% 23.2% 29.4%
11  Dayton Auto 32.8% 20.2% 12.7% 15.9%
11  Memphis Auto 46.1% 29.5% 16.6% 23.6%
12  Grand Canyon Auto 48.0% 44.9% 3.1% 5.6%
12  Bradley Auto 26.9% 24.4% 2.5% 3.3%
12  Princeton Auto 32.6% 31.2% 1.4% 2.0%
12  Louisiana Tech Auto 19.7% 18.7% 1.0% 1.3%
13  James Madison Auto 21.8% 21.2% 0.6% 0.8%
13  UC Irvine Auto 35.8% 35.2% 0.6% 0.9%
13  McNeese St. Auto 50.1% 49.8% 0.3% 0.6%
13  College of Charleston Auto 20.6% 20.3% 0.2% 0.3%
14  Kent St. Auto 23.5% 23.3% 0.2% 0.3%
14  Samford Auto 18.0% 17.9% 0.1% 0.1%
14  Vermont Auto 36.8% 36.7% 0.1% 0.2%
14  High Point Auto 30.6% 30.5% 0.1% 0.1%
15  Oakland Auto 20.5% 20.4% 0.0% 0.1%
15  Montana St. Auto 24.8% 24.8% 0.1% 0.1%
15  Lipscomb Auto 24.4% 24.4% 0.0% 0.0%
15  South Dakota St. Auto 21.5% 21.5% 0.0% 0.0%
16  Colgate Auto 26.1% 26.1% 0.0% 0.0%
16  Iona Auto 13.8% 13.8% 0.0% 0.0%
16  Morehead St. Auto 27.1% 27.1%
16  Southern Auto 20.4% 20.4% 0.0% 0.0%
16  Howard Auto 25.2% 25.2%
16  Wagner Auto 29.7% 29.7%



Bubble Teams - Last at Large Teams

Team Bid Chance Auto-Chance At-Large Chance At-Large If Not Auto
North Carolina 86.9% 21.8% 65.1% 83.3%
Iowa St. 85.0% 12.0% 73.0% 83.0%
Arizona 84.5% 11.4% 73.1% 82.5%
Auburn 84.6% 14.5% 70.1% 82.0%
Baylor 83.3% 12.0% 71.2% 81.0%
Creighton 79.3% 14.7% 64.6% 75.7%
Tennessee 75.4% 9.2% 66.2% 72.9%
Kentucky 74.6% 7.8% 66.8% 72.5%
Arkansas 72.4% 8.4% 64.0% 69.9%
St. John's 69.4% 9.8% 59.6% 66.1%
Texas A&M 65.3% 6.5% 58.7% 62.8%
Indiana 65.6% 8.4% 57.3% 62.5%
Texas Tech 63.9% 4.8% 59.1% 62.1%
UCLA 64.1% 7.5% 56.6% 61.2%
Marquette 64.2% 8.1% 56.1% 61.1%
Illinois 64.0% 8.2% 55.8% 60.8%
Florida 62.4% 5.5% 57.0% 60.3%
Michigan St. 63.0% 7.3% 55.7% 60.0%
Texas 62.7% 6.8% 55.9% 60.0%
Michigan 60.5% 6.4% 54.1% 57.8%
Cincinnati 59.2% 3.8% 55.4% 57.6%
Rutgers 59.9% 6.5% 53.4% 57.1%
BYU 55.5% 3.8% 51.7% 53.8%
Oregon 55.6% 5.4% 50.2% 53.1%
Ohio St. 55.8% 6.2% 49.6% 52.9%
Xavier 56.1% 7.5% 48.6% 52.5%
Mississippi St. 53.2% 4.0% 49.2% 51.2%
Maryland 52.3% 5.2% 47.1% 49.7%
Villanova 52.3% 6.3% 46.0% 49.1%
Kansas St. 49.9% 2.9% 47.0% 48.4%
Mississippi 49.5% 3.8% 45.7% 47.5%
Wisconsin 48.6% 4.2% 44.4% 46.4%
Wake Forest 47.7% 5.1% 42.6% 44.9%
Miami (FL) 47.4% 5.8% 41.6% 44.2%
Iowa 46.2% 4.0% 42.1% 43.9%
USC 43.9% 3.6% 40.3% 41.8%


Bubble Teams - First Teams Out

Team Bid Chance Auto-Chance At-Large Chance At-Large If Not Auto
Louisville 42.9% 3.8% 39.1% 40.6%
Providence 42.8% 4.5% 38.3% 40.1%
North Carolina St. 41.3% 4.0% 37.3% 38.8%
Clemson 41.7% 4.8% 36.9% 38.8%
Pittsburgh 40.5% 3.8% 36.7% 38.1%
Nebraska 39.7% 3.2% 36.6% 37.8%
TCU 38.6% 1.8% 36.9% 37.5%
Northwestern 38.0% 2.5% 35.4% 36.4%
LSU 37.7% 2.3% 35.4% 36.3%
Oklahoma 37.3% 2.1% 35.1% 35.9%
Syracuse 37.9% 3.8% 34.2% 35.5%
Washington 36.1% 2.4% 33.6% 34.5%
Virginia 35.6% 3.4% 32.2% 33.3%
Georgia 34.0% 1.8% 32.2% 32.8%
South Carolina 33.8% 1.7% 32.2% 32.7%
St. Mary's 46.0% 19.8% 26.2% 32.6%
Seton Hall 33.5% 2.8% 30.7% 31.6%
Missouri 32.6% 1.9% 30.7% 31.3%
West Virginia 30.8% 1.4% 29.5% 29.9%
Penn St. 31.0% 2.0% 29.0% 29.6%
Butler 30.0% 2.5% 27.5% 28.2%
Central Florida 28.7% 0.9% 27.8% 28.0%
Virginia Tech 29.2% 2.1% 27.1% 27.7%
Notre Dame 29.0% 2.7% 26.3% 27.0%
Arizona St. 27.0% 0.8% 26.1% 26.4%
SMU 26.3% 1.9% 24.3% 24.8%
Colorado 25.2% 0.8% 24.4% 24.6%
Minnesota 24.4% 1.5% 22.9% 23.3%
Oklahoma St. 23.7% 0.7% 23.1% 23.2%
Team Bid Chance Auto-Chance At-Large Chance At-Large If Not Auto
Utah 23.0% 0.8% 22.2% 22.4%
Florida St. 23.5% 1.7% 21.9% 22.2%
Georgia Tech 23.3% 1.9% 21.3% 21.7%
Vanderbilt 18.8% 0.9% 17.9% 18.1%
Boise St. 30.6% 16.0% 14.6% 17.4%
New Mexico 27.2% 14.2% 13.1% 15.2%
Stanford 15.7% 1.2% 14.5% 14.7%
Nevada 24.2% 12.6% 11.5% 13.2%
Georgetown 13.9% 1.1% 12.8% 13.0%
Utah St. 22.2% 12.1% 10.2% 11.6%
Colorado St. 21.1% 11.3% 9.8% 11.1%
San Francisco 18.3% 8.4% 9.9% 10.8%
Virginia Commonwealth 21.3% 12.8% 8.5% 9.7%
Santa Clara 14.7% 6.1% 8.6% 9.2%
Saint Joseph's 20.1% 12.3% 7.9% 9.0%
Washington St. 14.4% 6.8% 7.5% 8.1%
Saint Louis 17.1% 9.9% 7.1% 7.9%
UNLV 16.1% 9.0% 7.1% 7.8%
California 7.5% 0.4% 7.1% 7.1%
Loyola Chicago 14.2% 8.8% 5.4% 5.9%
Florida Atlantic 15.2% 10.0% 5.3% 5.8%
North Texas 18.5% 13.5% 5.0% 5.8%
Boston College 5.6% 0.4% 5.2% 5.2%
DePaul 5.4% 0.4% 5.0% 5.1%
George Mason 14.3% 9.8% 4.5% 5.0%
UAB 17.4% 13.2% 4.2% 4.9%
Wichita St. 10.9% 7.7% 3.2% 3.5%
South Florida 12.2% 9.2% 3.0% 3.3%
St. Bonaventure 5.5% 3.9% 1.6% 1.6%
Oregon St. 4.0% 2.5% 1.5% 1.6%
Team Bid Chance Auto-Chance At-Large Chance At-Large If Not Auto
Drake 18.5% 17.2% 1.3% 1.6%
Duquesne 4.9% 3.4% 1.4% 1.5%
Northern Iowa 14.5% 13.2% 1.3% 1.5%
Richmond 4.5% 3.3% 1.3% 1.3%
Western Kentucky 17.3% 16.3% 1.0% 1.2%
Massachusetts 5.6% 4.5% 1.1% 1.2%
Charlotte 5.1% 4.0% 1.1% 1.1%
Sam Houston St. 15.2% 14.4% 0.8% 1.0%
Temple 4.7% 3.8% 0.9% 0.9%
Davidson 4.0% 3.1% 0.9% 0.9%
Yale 24.1% 23.4% 0.7% 0.9%
Loyola Marymount 2.2% 1.5% 0.7% 0.7%
East Carolina 4.1% 3.3% 0.7% 0.7%
Liberty 18.1% 17.5% 0.6% 0.7%
Indiana St. 9.9% 9.3% 0.6% 0.7%
Rhode Island 3.2% 2.7% 0.6% 0.6%
Fordham 2.3% 1.8% 0.6% 0.6%
San Jose St. 2.1% 1.6% 0.5% 0.5%
Seattle 13.9% 13.5% 0.5% 0.5%
Wyoming 1.7% 1.2% 0.5% 0.5%
Tulsa 3.2% 2.7% 0.4% 0.4%
Arkansas St. 13.0% 12.7% 0.4% 0.4%
La Salle 1.9% 1.5% 0.3% 0.3%
New Mexico St. 7.9% 7.6% 0.3% 0.3%
Belmont 7.7% 7.4% 0.3% 0.3%
Troy 13.6% 13.3% 0.3% 0.3%
George Washington 2.3% 2.0% 0.3% 0.3%
Towson 18.2% 18.0% 0.2% 0.3%
Southern Illinois 7.9% 7.7% 0.3% 0.3%
Murray St. 8.3% 8.0% 0.3% 0.3%
Team Bid Chance Auto-Chance At-Large Chance At-Large If Not Auto
UTEP 8.9% 8.7% 0.3% 0.3%
Akron 20.5% 20.3% 0.2% 0.3%
Texas Arlington 10.1% 9.8% 0.2% 0.3%
Appalachian St. 12.0% 11.8% 0.2% 0.2%
Tulane 1.8% 1.6% 0.2% 0.2%
California Baptist 8.5% 8.4% 0.2% 0.2%
Penn 10.7% 10.5% 0.1% 0.2%
Louisiana 9.0% 8.9% 0.1% 0.2%
Utah Valley 9.2% 9.0% 0.1% 0.2%
Middle Tennessee 4.9% 4.8% 0.1% 0.1%
Kennesaw St. 6.4% 6.2% 0.1% 0.1%
Ohio 22.3% 22.2% 0.1% 0.1%
Drexel 11.6% 11.5% 0.1% 0.1%
Cornell 10.3% 10.2% 0.1% 0.1%
Texas St. 6.7% 6.6% 0.1% 0.1%
UNC Wilmington 11.4% 11.3% 0.1% 0.1%
Pepperdine 0.3% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1%
Wofford 15.0% 15.0% 0.1% 0.1%
Illinois St. 3.5% 3.5% 0.1% 0.1%
Harvard 9.7% 9.7% 0.1% 0.1%
Illinois-Chicago 3.2% 3.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Abilene Christian 6.5% 6.4% 0.1% 0.1%
Brown 9.6% 9.5% 0.1% 0.1%
UC Santa Barbara 12.0% 12.0% 0.1% 0.1%
Chattanooga 16.3% 16.2% 0.1% 0.1%
UC Davis 9.0% 9.0% 0.1% 0.1%
Furman 13.4% 13.3% 0.1% 0.1%
Jacksonville St. 4.4% 4.3% 0.1% 0.1%
Hofstra 11.7% 11.6% 0.0% 0.1%
Delaware 7.9% 7.9% 0.0% 0.1%
Team Bid Chance Auto-Chance At-Large Chance At-Large If Not Auto
UC San Diego 11.9% 11.9% 0.0% 0.1%
Northern Kentucky 15.0% 15.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Air Force 0.4% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0%
Texas San Antonio 0.6% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0%
Umass Lowell 22.7% 22.7% 0.0% 0.0%
Missouri St. 2.8% 2.7% 0.0% 0.0%
Marshall 5.5% 5.5% 0.0% 0.0%
Hawaii 8.3% 8.3% 0.0% 0.0%
Rice 0.7% 0.7% 0.0% 0.0%
UNC Greensboro 10.8% 10.7% 0.0% 0.0%
East Tennessee St. 12.7% 12.7% 0.0% 0.0%
Toledo 11.6% 11.6% 0.0% 0.0%
Georgia St. 4.7% 4.6% 0.0% 0.0%
Georgia Southern 4.0% 4.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Southern Utah 3.4% 3.4% 0.0% 0.0%
Stephen F. Austin 17.7% 17.7% 0.0% 0.0%
Tarleton St. 3.3% 3.2% 0.0% 0.0%
Monmouth 4.9% 4.9% 0.0% 0.0%
Evansville 2.0% 1.9% 0.0% 0.0%
Longwood 14.5% 14.4% 0.0% 0.0%
Weber St. 18.2% 18.2% 0.0% 0.0%
UNC Asheville 16.0% 16.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Winthrop 15.7% 15.7% 0.0% 0.0%
Southern Miss 2.8% 2.7% 0.0% 0.0%
Miami (OH) 5.5% 5.5% 0.0% 0.0%
Fresno St. 0.3% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0%
Montana 17.1% 17.0% 0.0% 0.0%
St. Thomas 15.8% 15.8% 0.0% 0.0%
Bryant 17.5% 17.5% 0.0% 0.0%
Valparaiso 1.6% 1.6% 0.0% 0.0%
Team Bid Chance Auto-Chance At-Large Chance At-Large If Not Auto
Lafayette 20.3% 20.3% 0.0% 0.0%
UC Riverside 9.7% 9.6% 0.0% 0.0%
Columbia 4.5% 4.5% 0.0% 0.0%
San Diego 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Wisconsin-Milwaukee 11.9% 11.9% 0.0% 0.0%
UMKC 15.5% 15.5% 0.0% 0.0%
Mercer 7.6% 7.6% 0.0% 0.0%
Portland 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Western Carolina 5.8% 5.8% 0.0% 0.0%
Northeastern 4.6% 4.6% 0.0% 0.0%
Wright St. 11.9% 11.9% 0.0% 0.0%
Stony Brook 2.6% 2.6% 0.0% 0.0%
Florida International 1.4% 1.4% 0.0% 0.0%
Old Dominion 3.2% 3.2% 0.0% 0.0%
Youngstown St. 11.7% 11.7% 0.0% 0.0%
Cal St. Fullerton 3.9% 3.9% 0.0% 0.0%
Nicholls St. 9.4% 9.4% 0.0% 0.0%
St. Peter's 13.2% 13.2% 0.0% 0.0%
Cleveland St. 9.2% 9.2% 0.0% 0.0%
Northern Colorado 10.1% 10.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Marist 10.5% 10.5% 0.0% 0.0%
Ball St. 4.8% 4.8% 0.0% 0.0%
Cal St. Bakersfield 2.2% 2.2% 0.0% 0.0%
William & Mary 3.4% 3.4% 0.0% 0.0%
Purdue Fort Wayne 14.6% 14.6% 0.0% 0.0%
Florida Gulf Coast 14.4% 14.4% 0.0% 0.0%
Oral Roberts 12.7% 12.7% 0.0% 0.0%
North Dakota St. 11.8% 11.8% 0.0% 0.0%
Merrimack 9.8% 9.8% 0.0% 0.0%
Navy 9.7% 9.7% 0.0% 0.0%
Team Bid Chance Auto-Chance At-Large Chance At-Large If Not Auto
Gardner-Webb 7.9% 7.9% 0.0% 0.0%
Maine 6.5% 6.5% 0.0% 0.0%
Albany 5.9% 5.9% 0.0% 0.0%
Cal St. Northridge 4.2% 4.2% 0.0% 0.0%
Long Beach St. 3.7% 3.7% 0.0% 0.0%
South Alabama 3.5% 3.5% 0.0% 0.0%
New Hampshire 2.8% 2.8% 0.0% 0.0%
Lamar 4.1% 4.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Presbyterian 3.2% 3.2% 0.0% 0.0%
Portland St. 6.9% 6.9% 0.0% 0.0%
Radford 5.9% 5.9% 0.0% 0.0%