Projected NCAA Tournament Seeding
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26

Last Updated: Nov 20, 2024
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View: Probabilistic Seeding


Seed Team Bid Type Bid Chance Auto-Chance At-Large Chance At-Large If Not Auto
1  Auburn Auto 98.7% 25.1% 73.6% 98.3%
1  Gonzaga Auto 99.7% 76.1% 23.6% 98.6%
1  Kansas At-Large 98.6% 20.4% 78.2% 98.2%
1  Houston Auto 96.8% 24.3% 72.5% 95.8%
2  Duke Auto 97.5% 36.5% 61.0% 96.0%
2  Connecticut Auto 97.5% 45.2% 52.3% 95.4%
2  Kentucky At-Large 95.9% 13.6% 82.3% 95.3%
2  Tennessee At-Large 95.7% 15.5% 80.1% 94.9%
3  Alabama At-Large 89.2% 13.9% 75.3% 87.5%
3  Baylor At-Large 90.4% 11.5% 78.9% 89.2%
3  North Carolina At-Large 93.7% 25.9% 67.9% 91.5%
3  Iowa St. At-Large 86.7% 11.9% 74.8% 84.9%
4  Arizona At-Large 80.2% 9.1% 71.1% 78.2%
4  Marquette At-Large 92.3% 14.4% 77.9% 91.0%
4  Purdue Auto 83.0% 10.3% 72.7% 81.1%
4  Florida At-Large 82.6% 5.8% 76.7% 81.5%
5  Ohio St. At-Large 79.3% 10.1% 69.2% 76.9%
5  Texas Tech At-Large 81.7% 8.1% 73.6% 80.0%
5  Indiana At-Large 77.8% 9.9% 67.9% 75.4%
5  St. John's At-Large 83.7% 13.9% 69.8% 81.0%
6  Texas A&M At-Large 74.5% 5.5% 69.0% 73.0%
6  Mississippi St. At-Large 73.3% 4.6% 68.8% 72.1%
6  Michigan At-Large 76.0% 9.3% 66.8% 73.6%
6  Cincinnati At-Large 79.1% 6.0% 73.1% 77.8%
7  Illinois At-Large 73.6% 9.5% 64.0% 70.8%
7  Creighton At-Large 78.8% 13.5% 65.2% 75.4%
7  Pittsburgh At-Large 79.9% 9.6% 70.3% 77.7%
7  Arkansas At-Large 69.6% 5.1% 64.5% 67.9%
8  UCLA At-Large 65.4% 8.2% 57.3% 62.4%
8  Wisconsin At-Large 67.3% 4.7% 62.7% 65.7%
8  Texas At-Large 58.1% 4.4% 53.7% 56.2%
8  Penn St. At-Large 67.8% 7.6% 60.2% 65.1%
Seed Team Bid Type Bid Chance Auto-Chance At-Large Chance At-Large If Not Auto
9  Maryland At-Large 64.5% 7.3% 57.2% 61.7%
9  BYU At-Large 57.9% 3.0% 54.9% 56.6%
9  Rutgers At-Large 52.4% 4.0% 48.3% 50.4%
9  Michigan St. At-Large 62.8% 5.4% 57.4% 60.7%
10  Iowa At-Large 60.0% 4.6% 55.4% 58.1%
10  Oregon At-Large 59.0% 4.7% 54.3% 57.0%
10  Xavier At-Large 58.0% 6.8% 51.2% 55.0%
10  Miami (FL) At-Large 46.0% 5.9% 40.1% 42.6%
10  LSU At-Large 43.8% 1.2% 42.5% 43.1%
11  Mississippi At-Large 42.1% 1.3% 40.8% 41.3%
11  Arizona St. At-Large 41.6% 1.0% 40.6% 41.0%
11  Memphis Auto 66.2% 38.4% 27.7% 45.0%
11  Nevada Auto 51.5% 23.9% 27.7% 36.4%
11  Virginia Commonwealth Auto 34.4% 24.1% 10.3% 13.6%
12  UC Irvine Auto 55.7% 52.4% 3.4% 7.1%
12  Liberty Auto 30.5% 28.5% 2.0% 2.8%
12  Bradley Auto 21.7% 21.1% 0.6% 0.8%
12  Grand Canyon Auto 39.6% 39.2% 0.4% 0.7%
13  Arkansas St. Auto 24.2% 24.0% 0.2% 0.3%
13  College of Charleston Auto 21.1% 20.9% 0.2% 0.2%
13  McNeese St. Auto 51.0% 51.0% 0.1% 0.1%
13  Kent St. Auto 24.6% 24.5% 0.1% 0.1%
14  Yale Auto 33.9% 33.9% 0.0% 0.0%
14  High Point Auto 31.9% 31.9% 0.0% 0.0%
14  Samford Auto 24.3% 24.3% 0.0% 0.0%
14  Purdue Fort Wayne Auto 24.4% 24.4% 0.0% 0.0%
15  Lipscomb Auto 21.5% 21.5%
15  Vermont Auto 26.7% 26.7%
15  St. Thomas Auto 22.3% 22.3% 0.0% 0.0%
15  Montana St. Auto 21.6% 21.6%
16  St. Peter's Auto 21.2% 21.2%
16  Colgate Auto 26.7% 26.7%
16  Norfolk St. Auto 35.0% 35.0% 0.0% 0.0%
16  Grambling St. Auto 25.3% 25.3%
16  Arkansas Little Rock Auto 22.0% 22.0%
16  Central Connecticut St. Auto 33.7% 33.7%



Bubble Teams - Last at Large Teams

Team Bid Chance Auto-Chance At-Large Chance At-Large If Not Auto
Iowa St. 86.7% 11.9% 74.8% 84.9%
Florida 82.6% 5.8% 76.7% 81.5%
St. John's 83.7% 13.9% 69.8% 81.0%
Texas Tech 81.7% 8.1% 73.6% 80.0%
Arizona 80.2% 9.1% 71.1% 78.2%
Cincinnati 79.1% 6.0% 73.1% 77.8%
Pittsburgh 79.9% 9.6% 70.3% 77.7%
Ohio St. 79.3% 10.1% 69.2% 76.9%
Creighton 78.8% 13.5% 65.2% 75.4%
Indiana 77.8% 9.9% 67.9% 75.4%
Michigan 76.0% 9.3% 66.8% 73.6%
Texas A&M 74.5% 5.5% 69.0% 73.0%
Mississippi St. 73.3% 4.6% 68.8% 72.1%
Illinois 73.6% 9.5% 64.0% 70.8%
Arkansas 69.6% 5.1% 64.5% 67.9%
Wisconsin 67.3% 4.7% 62.7% 65.7%
Penn St. 67.8% 7.6% 60.2% 65.1%
UCLA 65.4% 8.2% 57.3% 62.4%
Maryland 64.5% 7.3% 57.2% 61.7%
Michigan St. 62.8% 5.4% 57.4% 60.7%
Iowa 60.0% 4.6% 55.4% 58.1%
Oregon 59.0% 4.7% 54.3% 57.0%
BYU 57.9% 3.0% 54.9% 56.6%
Texas 58.1% 4.4% 53.7% 56.2%
Xavier 58.0% 6.8% 51.2% 55.0%
Rutgers 52.4% 4.0% 48.3% 50.4%
LSU 43.8% 1.2% 42.5% 43.1%
Miami (FL) 46.0% 5.9% 40.1% 42.6%
Mississippi 42.1% 1.3% 40.8% 41.3%
Arizona St. 41.6% 1.0% 40.6% 41.0%


Bubble Teams - First Teams Out

Team Bid Chance Auto-Chance At-Large Chance At-Large If Not Auto
St. Mary's 45.1% 9.9% 35.2% 39.1%
Louisville 40.3% 3.6% 36.7% 38.0%
Virginia 39.4% 2.7% 36.7% 37.7%
Georgia 36.0% 0.9% 35.1% 35.4%
Notre Dame 35.6% 2.5% 33.1% 33.9%
Central Florida 33.5% 0.6% 33.0% 33.2%
North Carolina St. 33.4% 2.6% 30.8% 31.6%
Wake Forest 31.1% 1.3% 29.8% 30.2%
TCU 29.6% 0.8% 28.9% 29.1%
Utah 29.8% 1.0% 28.7% 29.0%
Clemson 30.0% 3.0% 27.0% 27.8%
Oklahoma 28.4% 1.2% 27.2% 27.5%
Boise St. 43.2% 21.9% 21.3% 27.3%
Nebraska 26.5% 1.5% 25.1% 25.4%
Missouri 25.8% 0.9% 24.9% 25.1%
Colorado 25.5% 0.6% 24.9% 25.1%
Stanford 24.3% 1.8% 22.5% 22.9%
SMU 23.9% 1.7% 22.2% 22.6%
San Francisco 26.4% 6.1% 20.3% 21.6%
Northwestern 22.3% 0.9% 21.4% 21.6%
Kansas St. 21.9% 0.7% 21.2% 21.3%
Utah St. 35.5% 18.1% 17.4% 21.2%
New Mexico 30.6% 12.4% 18.2% 20.8%
West Virginia 19.2% 0.6% 18.7% 18.8%
Florida St. 19.2% 1.1% 18.1% 18.3%
Oklahoma St. 18.1% 0.4% 17.8% 17.8%
USC 18.3% 0.9% 17.4% 17.6%
Vanderbilt 17.1% 0.4% 16.7% 16.8%
South Carolina 16.9% 0.6% 16.4% 16.5%
Team Bid Chance Auto-Chance At-Large Chance At-Large If Not Auto
Washington 17.1% 0.9% 16.2% 16.4%
Providence 17.4% 1.5% 15.9% 16.1%
San Diego St. 27.2% 13.4% 13.7% 15.9%
Butler 14.4% 1.3% 13.1% 13.2%
Syracuse 12.5% 0.6% 11.9% 12.0%
Dayton 29.1% 19.5% 9.5% 11.9%
Villanova 12.7% 1.7% 11.0% 11.2%
Minnesota 10.2% 0.3% 9.9% 9.9%
Virginia Tech 10.0% 0.5% 9.5% 9.5%
Washington St. 11.2% 3.6% 7.5% 7.8%
California 7.4% 0.3% 7.1% 7.1%
Florida Atlantic 20.7% 14.7% 6.0% 7.0%
Seton Hall 7.8% 1.0% 6.7% 6.8%
North Texas 17.4% 13.0% 4.4% 5.0%
Wichita St. 12.6% 8.7% 3.9% 4.3%
Louisiana Tech 27.7% 25.0% 2.7% 3.6%
DePaul 4.0% 0.4% 3.6% 3.6%
UNLV 8.4% 5.3% 3.1% 3.2%
Oregon St. 4.8% 2.0% 2.8% 2.9%
Georgia Tech 2.8% 0.3% 2.4% 2.4%
Loyola Chicago 8.7% 6.4% 2.3% 2.4%
Colorado St. 6.7% 4.4% 2.3% 2.4%
Saint Louis 9.8% 7.8% 1.9% 2.1%
Santa Clara 3.6% 1.8% 1.8% 1.8%
Georgetown 1.6% 0.2% 1.4% 1.4%
Saint Joseph's 9.4% 8.1% 1.3% 1.4%
Boston College 1.4% 0.1% 1.3% 1.3%
Rhode Island 6.3% 5.4% 0.9% 0.9%
La Salle 5.1% 4.2% 0.9% 0.9%
St. Bonaventure 6.1% 5.3% 0.9% 0.9%
Team Bid Chance Auto-Chance At-Large Chance At-Large If Not Auto
Temple 5.9% 5.0% 0.9% 0.9%
Drake 16.9% 16.2% 0.8% 0.9%
Murray St. 16.7% 15.9% 0.7% 0.8%
George Mason 9.0% 8.5% 0.5% 0.6%
UAB 7.1% 6.6% 0.5% 0.6%
Davidson 3.8% 3.3% 0.5% 0.5%
Sam Houston St. 13.3% 12.9% 0.4% 0.4%
East Carolina 2.7% 2.4% 0.3% 0.3%
South Florida 4.1% 3.8% 0.3% 0.3%
UC Santa Barbara 16.7% 16.5% 0.2% 0.2%
Princeton 32.7% 32.5% 0.1% 0.2%
Charlotte 2.5% 2.3% 0.2% 0.2%
Northern Iowa 11.7% 11.6% 0.2% 0.2%
Western Kentucky 11.1% 11.0% 0.1% 0.1%
New Mexico St. 5.9% 5.8% 0.1% 0.1%
George Washington 2.3% 2.2% 0.1% 0.1%
Massachusetts 3.1% 3.0% 0.1% 0.1%
Furman 21.3% 21.2% 0.1% 0.1%
Hofstra 15.1% 15.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Tulsa 2.0% 1.9% 0.1% 0.1%
Southern Illinois 8.7% 8.7% 0.1% 0.1%
Tulane 2.1% 2.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Troy 17.6% 17.6% 0.1% 0.1%
Kennesaw St. 5.3% 5.2% 0.1% 0.1%
Wyoming 0.5% 0.5% 0.1% 0.1%
Belmont 7.5% 7.5% 0.1% 0.1%
Illinois-Chicago 5.7% 5.6% 0.1% 0.1%
UNC Wilmington 10.9% 10.9% 0.0% 0.1%
Loyola Marymount 0.5% 0.4% 0.1% 0.1%
Towson 14.3% 14.3% 0.0% 0.0%
Team Bid Chance Auto-Chance At-Large Chance At-Large If Not Auto
James Madison 17.4% 17.4% 0.0% 0.0%
Missouri St. 4.7% 4.7% 0.0% 0.0%
Middle Tennessee 4.6% 4.5% 0.0% 0.0%
Fordham 1.2% 1.2% 0.0% 0.0%
Utah Valley 15.9% 15.9% 0.0% 0.0%
Toledo 18.4% 18.4% 0.0% 0.0%
Rice 1.1% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Akron 19.4% 19.4% 0.0% 0.0%
Illinois St. 4.1% 4.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Jacksonville St. 3.3% 3.3% 0.0% 0.0%
Drexel 11.8% 11.8% 0.0% 0.0%
Hawaii 5.7% 5.7% 0.0% 0.0%
Columbia 8.9% 8.9% 0.0% 0.0%
Northeastern 10.9% 10.9% 0.0% 0.0%
UNC Greensboro 13.4% 13.4% 0.0% 0.0%
UC San Diego 7.0% 7.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Cal St. Northridge 4.6% 4.6% 0.0% 0.0%
UNC Asheville 15.7% 15.7% 0.0% 0.0%
Seattle 15.3% 15.3% 0.0% 0.0%
Ohio 13.0% 13.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Cornell 11.8% 11.8% 0.0% 0.0%
Texas St. 8.4% 8.4% 0.0% 0.0%
California Baptist 7.9% 7.9% 0.0% 0.0%
UC Davis 6.1% 6.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Umass Lowell 24.9% 24.9% 0.0% 0.0%
Northern Colorado 18.0% 18.0% 0.0% 0.0%
North Florida 16.2% 16.2% 0.0% 0.0%
Longwood 15.2% 15.2% 0.0% 0.0%
Oakland 14.4% 14.4% 0.0% 0.0%
Wright St. 13.2% 13.2% 0.0% 0.0%
Team Bid Chance Auto-Chance At-Large Chance At-Large If Not Auto
Stephen F. Austin 12.6% 12.6% 0.0% 0.0%
Chattanooga 12.3% 12.3% 0.0% 0.0%
East Tennessee St. 11.0% 11.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Austin Peay 9.1% 9.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Radford 8.7% 8.7% 0.0% 0.0%
Indiana St. 3.9% 3.9% 0.0% 0.0%
UC Riverside 3.7% 3.7% 0.0% 0.0%
UTEP 3.1% 3.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Cal St. Bakersfield 1.9% 1.9% 0.0% 0.0%
Campbell 1.9% 1.9% 0.0% 0.0%
Texas San Antonio 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Fresno St. 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
San Jose St. 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Portland 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%