Projected NCAA Tournament Seeding
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26

Last Updated: Dec 30, 2024
Compare with others at bracketmatrix.com

View: Probabilistic Seeding


Seed Team Bid Type Bid Chance Auto-Chance At-Large Chance At-Large If Not Auto
1  Auburn Auto 100.0% 38.6% 61.4% 100.0%
1  Tennessee At-Large 99.9% 17.7% 82.2% 99.9%
1  Duke Auto 99.9% 58.4% 41.6% 99.9%
1  Iowa St. Auto 99.7% 24.0% 75.8% 99.6%
2  Florida At-Large 99.8% 14.9% 84.9% 99.7%
2  Alabama At-Large 98.7% 10.0% 88.7% 98.6%
2  Houston At-Large 98.3% 23.5% 74.8% 97.8%
2  Kansas At-Large 98.8% 15.9% 83.0% 98.6%
3  Gonzaga Auto 97.9% 69.8% 28.1% 93.1%
3  Kentucky At-Large 92.0% 3.7% 88.3% 91.7%
3  UCLA At-Large 97.4% 12.5% 84.8% 97.0%
3  Connecticut Auto 98.4% 30.3% 68.1% 97.7%
4  Oregon At-Large 98.0% 10.3% 87.6% 97.7%
4  Baylor At-Large 89.5% 9.2% 80.3% 88.4%
4  Marquette At-Large 98.1% 22.0% 76.1% 97.5%
4  Michigan Auto 95.6% 15.2% 80.3% 94.8%
5  Mississippi St. At-Large 92.8% 3.5% 89.2% 92.5%
5  Michigan St. At-Large 94.7% 12.4% 82.4% 94.0%
5  Texas A&M At-Large 91.9% 3.6% 88.3% 91.6%
5  Maryland At-Large 94.4% 12.9% 81.5% 93.6%
6  Illinois At-Large 89.9% 10.1% 79.8% 88.8%
6  St. John's At-Large 91.9% 24.1% 67.8% 89.3%
6  Oklahoma At-Large 86.4% 1.2% 85.2% 86.2%
6  Purdue At-Large 85.5% 5.7% 79.9% 84.7%
7  Arizona At-Large 76.4% 9.7% 66.7% 73.9%
7  Cincinnati At-Large 86.9% 5.7% 81.2% 86.1%
7  Arkansas At-Large 75.4% 2.0% 73.4% 74.9%
7  Ohio St. At-Large 75.3% 5.3% 70.0% 73.9%
8  Texas Tech At-Large 80.6% 6.6% 74.0% 79.3%
8  Mississippi At-Large 66.0% 1.1% 65.0% 65.7%
8  Texas At-Large 67.1% 1.6% 65.5% 66.6%
8  North Carolina At-Large 82.3% 12.4% 69.9% 79.8%
Seed Team Bid Type Bid Chance Auto-Chance At-Large Chance At-Large If Not Auto
9  Wisconsin At-Large 74.3% 3.3% 71.1% 73.5%
9  West Virginia At-Large 68.4% 1.8% 66.6% 67.8%
9  Nebraska At-Large 62.4% 2.3% 60.2% 61.6%
9  Pittsburgh At-Large 80.7% 9.4% 71.3% 78.7%
10  Penn St. At-Large 64.8% 4.0% 60.9% 63.4%
10  Iowa At-Large 53.5% 2.7% 50.8% 52.2%
10  Memphis Auto 80.8% 49.2% 31.6% 62.2%
10  Georgia At-Large 60.0% 0.6% 59.4% 59.8%
11  Clemson At-Large 54.7% 6.8% 47.9% 51.4%
11  SMU At-Large 51.2% 5.6% 45.6% 48.3%
11  BYU At-Large 48.2% 1.7% 46.5% 47.3%
11  Vanderbilt At-Large 45.4% 0.5% 44.9% 45.2%
11  Utah St. Auto 67.9% 26.1% 41.7% 56.5%
11  Dayton Auto 47.3% 30.5% 16.8% 24.2%
12  Drake Auto 39.1% 33.9% 5.3% 8.0%
12  Liberty Auto 38.0% 36.0% 1.9% 3.0%
12  UC Irvine Auto 42.0% 41.6% 0.5% 0.8%
12  Arkansas St. Auto 29.3% 29.3% 0.0% 0.0%
13  Furman Auto 24.6% 24.6% 0.1% 0.1%
13  McNeese St. Auto 57.0% 57.0%
13  College of Charleston Auto 23.9% 23.9%
13  Grand Canyon Auto 35.3% 35.3%
14  North Dakota St. Auto 30.3% 30.3%
14  Kent St. Auto 31.2% 31.2% 0.0% 0.0%
14  Yale Auto 37.3% 37.3%
14  Lipscomb Auto 40.9% 40.9%
15  High Point Auto 29.5% 29.5%
15  Wisconsin-Milwaukee Auto 21.5% 21.5%
15  Umass Lowell Auto 31.8% 31.8%
15  Norfolk St. Auto 45.4% 45.4%
16  Montana St. Auto 24.2% 24.2%
16  Merrimack Auto 20.3% 20.3%
16  Central Connecticut St. Auto 41.9% 41.9%
16  Arkansas Little Rock Auto 21.6% 21.6%
16  American Auto 16.7% 16.7%
16  Southern Auto 24.6% 24.6%



Bubble Teams - Last at Large Teams

Team Bid Chance Auto-Chance At-Large Chance At-Large If Not Auto
Purdue 85.5% 5.7% 79.9% 84.7%
North Carolina 82.3% 12.4% 69.9% 79.8%
Texas Tech 80.6% 6.6% 74.0% 79.3%
Pittsburgh 80.7% 9.4% 71.3% 78.7%
Arkansas 75.4% 2.0% 73.4% 74.9%
Ohio St. 75.3% 5.3% 70.0% 73.9%
Arizona 76.4% 9.7% 66.7% 73.9%
Wisconsin 74.3% 3.3% 71.1% 73.5%
West Virginia 68.4% 1.8% 66.6% 67.8%
Texas 67.1% 1.6% 65.5% 66.6%
Mississippi 66.0% 1.1% 65.0% 65.7%
Penn St. 64.8% 4.0% 60.9% 63.4%
Nebraska 62.4% 2.3% 60.2% 61.6%
Georgia 60.0% 0.6% 59.4% 59.8%
Iowa 53.5% 2.7% 50.8% 52.2%
Clemson 54.7% 6.8% 47.9% 51.4%
SMU 51.2% 5.6% 45.6% 48.3%
BYU 48.2% 1.7% 46.5% 47.3%
Vanderbilt 45.4% 0.5% 44.9% 45.2%


Bubble Teams - First Teams Out

Team Bid Chance Auto-Chance At-Large Chance At-Large If Not Auto
Northwestern 41.6% 1.4% 40.2% 40.8%
Creighton 43.9% 5.7% 38.2% 40.5%
Arizona St. 39.9% 0.6% 39.3% 39.5%
Missouri 39.0% 0.5% 38.5% 38.7%
LSU 35.9% 0.4% 35.6% 35.7%
Louisville 36.0% 2.7% 33.3% 34.2%
Indiana 34.6% 1.2% 33.4% 33.8%
San Diego St. 50.1% 24.8% 25.3% 33.7%
Xavier 32.6% 5.6% 26.9% 28.5%
Villanova 27.0% 5.4% 21.6% 22.8%
Colorado 22.7% 0.3% 22.4% 22.5%
Georgetown 20.7% 2.5% 18.2% 18.7%
South Carolina 17.8% 0.1% 17.7% 17.7%
St. Mary's 22.5% 8.3% 14.2% 15.5%
New Mexico 27.3% 14.7% 12.6% 14.8%
Central Florida 14.9% 0.2% 14.7% 14.7%
Rutgers 13.6% 0.5% 13.2% 13.2%
Butler 13.6% 1.9% 11.7% 11.9%
TCU 12.0% 0.3% 11.7% 11.8%
USC 10.9% 0.3% 10.6% 10.6%
Utah 10.7% 0.4% 10.3% 10.3%
Boise St. 22.1% 14.0% 8.2% 9.5%
Wake Forest 8.2% 0.5% 7.7% 7.8%
Providence 7.7% 2.0% 5.7% 5.8%
Florida St. 6.4% 0.9% 5.5% 5.6%
Washington St. 10.2% 5.1% 5.1% 5.4%
North Carolina St. 6.0% 1.1% 4.9% 5.0%
Nevada 16.1% 12.0% 4.0% 4.6%
Kansas St. 4.3% 0.2% 4.2% 4.2%
Team Bid Chance Auto-Chance At-Large Chance At-Large If Not Auto
Washington 4.1% 0.1% 4.1% 4.1%
San Francisco 10.4% 6.7% 3.8% 4.0%
Oklahoma St. 3.9% 0.1% 3.8% 3.9%
Notre Dame 4.5% 0.9% 3.6% 3.6%
Virginia Commonwealth 23.8% 21.0% 2.8% 3.6%
St. Bonaventure 12.2% 9.7% 2.5% 2.7%
Virginia 2.8% 0.3% 2.5% 2.5%
Santa Clara 6.3% 4.2% 2.2% 2.3%
Stanford 2.5% 0.4% 2.1% 2.1%
Oregon St. 7.8% 5.8% 2.0% 2.1%
DePaul 1.6% 0.3% 1.3% 1.3%
Rhode Island 8.9% 8.1% 0.9% 0.9%
North Texas 16.1% 15.4% 0.7% 0.8%
Saint Joseph's 11.5% 10.9% 0.7% 0.8%
Bradley 25.4% 24.9% 0.5% 0.6%
UC San Diego 35.2% 34.9% 0.3% 0.5%
Syracuse 0.8% 0.3% 0.5% 0.5%
George Mason 10.6% 10.2% 0.4% 0.4%
Florida Atlantic 13.9% 13.6% 0.3% 0.4%
Minnesota 0.4% 0.0% 0.4% 0.4%
Wichita St. 9.2% 8.9% 0.3% 0.3%
UNLV 3.5% 3.3% 0.2% 0.2%
Louisiana Tech 19.1% 18.9% 0.1% 0.2%
Colorado St. 3.7% 3.6% 0.1% 0.1%
California 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1%
Davidson 2.5% 2.5% 0.1% 0.1%
Georgia Tech 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Miami (FL) 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0%
Seton Hall 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0%
Loyola Chicago 2.3% 2.2% 0.0% 0.0%
Team Bid Chance Auto-Chance At-Large Chance At-Large If Not Auto
Columbia 9.1% 9.1% 0.0% 0.0%
UTEP 7.0% 7.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Wyoming 0.9% 0.9% 0.0% 0.0%
Virginia Tech 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%