Projected NCAA Tournament Seeding
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26

Last Updated: Jan 30, 2025
Compare with others at bracketmatrix.com

View: Probabilistic Seeding


Seed Team Bid Type Bid Chance Auto-Chance At-Large Chance At-Large If Not Auto
1  Auburn Auto 100.0% 36.0% 64.1% 100.0%
1  Houston Auto 100.0% 39.1% 60.9% 100.0%
1  Duke Auto 100.0% 62.8% 37.3% 100.0%
1  Alabama At-Large 100.0% 15.3% 84.7% 100.0%
2  Florida At-Large 100.0% 19.9% 80.1% 100.0%
2  Iowa St. At-Large 100.0% 21.8% 78.2% 100.0%
2  Tennessee At-Large 100.0% 9.5% 90.5% 99.9%
2  Michigan St. At-Large 99.9% 19.0% 81.0% 99.9%
3  Purdue Auto 100.0% 20.6% 79.5% 100.0%
3  Kansas At-Large 99.9% 13.6% 86.3% 99.8%
3  Kentucky At-Large 99.8% 5.6% 94.2% 99.8%
3  Arizona At-Large 98.9% 10.4% 88.5% 98.8%
4  Marquette At-Large 100.0% 26.3% 73.7% 100.0%
4  Illinois At-Large 99.3% 13.4% 85.9% 99.2%
4  Maryland At-Large 99.5% 11.4% 88.1% 99.5%
4  St. John's Auto 98.9% 32.6% 66.3% 98.3%
5  Texas A&M At-Large 99.5% 4.4% 95.2% 99.5%
5  Texas Tech At-Large 99.3% 8.3% 91.0% 99.3%
5  Michigan At-Large 98.5% 11.6% 86.9% 98.3%
5  Wisconsin At-Large 99.1% 10.7% 88.4% 99.0%
6  Mississippi St. At-Large 97.2% 2.4% 94.8% 97.2%
6  Mississippi At-Large 97.3% 2.8% 94.5% 97.2%
6  Louisville At-Large 96.6% 12.6% 84.1% 96.1%
6  Missouri At-Large 92.5% 1.8% 90.7% 92.4%
7  Oregon At-Large 98.3% 3.1% 95.2% 98.3%
7  Gonzaga Auto 95.1% 57.9% 37.2% 88.3%
7  Baylor At-Large 88.1% 3.6% 84.5% 87.7%
7  UCLA At-Large 93.7% 3.7% 90.0% 93.4%
8  Creighton At-Large 94.4% 15.4% 79.0% 93.4%
8  Ohio St. At-Large 78.9% 3.6% 75.3% 78.1%
8  Connecticut At-Large 91.9% 13.6% 78.4% 90.7%
8  St. Mary's At-Large 87.6% 30.1% 57.5% 82.3%
Seed Team Bid Type Bid Chance Auto-Chance At-Large Chance At-Large If Not Auto
9  Clemson At-Large 78.1% 9.1% 69.0% 75.9%
9  Texas At-Large 70.6% 0.7% 69.9% 70.4%
9  BYU At-Large 68.3% 1.7% 66.6% 67.7%
9  Vanderbilt At-Large 66.2% 0.4% 65.8% 66.1%
10  Utah St. Auto 81.9% 25.1% 56.8% 75.8%
10  West Virginia At-Large 71.2% 0.6% 70.7% 71.1%
10  Memphis Auto 79.9% 48.2% 31.7% 61.2%
10  Oklahoma At-Large 66.8% 0.5% 66.3% 66.6%
11  Georgia At-Large 64.5% 0.6% 63.9% 64.3%
11  San Diego St. At-Large 62.0% 20.3% 41.7% 52.3%
11  Pittsburgh At-Large 65.1% 4.1% 61.1% 63.7%
11  New Mexico At-Large 54.9% 21.7% 33.1% 42.3%
11  North Carolina At-Large 45.1% 4.3% 40.8% 42.6%
11  Virginia Commonwealth Auto 42.4% 37.8% 4.6% 7.3%
12  UC Irvine Auto 49.5% 47.2% 2.3% 4.4%
12  Drake Auto 34.4% 32.5% 1.9% 2.8%
12  McNeese St. Auto 72.8% 72.7% 0.0% 0.1%
12  Liberty Auto 32.4% 32.2% 0.2% 0.3%
13  Arkansas St. Auto 33.3% 33.3%
13  Grand Canyon Auto 55.5% 55.5% 0.0% 0.0%
13  Yale Auto 54.6% 54.6%
13  Lipscomb Auto 47.3% 47.3%
14  Samford Auto 29.9% 29.9%
14  High Point Auto 42.6% 42.6%
14  South Dakota St. Auto 29.2% 29.2%
14  Akron Auto 36.3% 36.3%
15  College of Charleston Auto 24.4% 24.4%
15  Wisconsin-Milwaukee Auto 25.3% 25.3%
15  Northern Colorado Auto 26.7% 26.7%
15  Bryant Auto 35.4% 35.4%
16  Norfolk St. Auto 50.1% 50.1%
16  Merrimack Auto 27.1% 27.1%
16  Central Connecticut St. Auto 48.5% 48.5%
16  Southern Auto 35.8% 35.8%
16  Arkansas Little Rock Auto 30.2% 30.2%
16  Colgate Auto 26.8% 26.8%



Bubble Teams - Last at Large Teams

Team Bid Chance Auto-Chance At-Large Chance At-Large If Not Auto
St. Mary's 87.6% 30.1% 57.5% 82.3%
Ohio St. 78.9% 3.6% 75.3% 78.1%
Clemson 78.1% 9.1% 69.0% 75.9%
West Virginia 71.2% 0.6% 70.7% 71.1%
Texas 70.6% 0.7% 69.9% 70.4%
BYU 68.3% 1.7% 66.6% 67.7%
Oklahoma 66.8% 0.5% 66.3% 66.6%
Vanderbilt 66.2% 0.4% 65.8% 66.1%
Georgia 64.5% 0.6% 63.9% 64.3%
Pittsburgh 65.1% 4.1% 61.1% 63.7%
San Diego St. 62.0% 20.3% 41.7% 52.3%
North Carolina 45.1% 4.3% 40.8% 42.6%
New Mexico 54.9% 21.7% 33.1% 42.3%


Bubble Teams - First Teams Out

Team Bid Chance Auto-Chance At-Large Chance At-Large If Not Auto
Xavier 38.1% 5.3% 32.8% 34.6%
SMU 36.0% 3.1% 32.9% 33.9%
Central Florida 30.3% 0.2% 30.1% 30.1%
Indiana 29.9% 0.6% 29.3% 29.5%
Penn St. 28.5% 0.8% 27.7% 27.9%
Arizona St. 24.4% 0.2% 24.2% 24.3%
Wake Forest 21.5% 1.8% 19.7% 20.0%
Northwestern 19.9% 0.3% 19.5% 19.6%
Nebraska 19.6% 0.2% 19.4% 19.4%
Villanova 22.0% 4.2% 17.7% 18.5%
Arkansas 18.6% 0.2% 18.4% 18.4%
Cincinnati 16.7% 0.2% 16.4% 16.5%
USC 16.3% 0.5% 15.8% 15.9%
Iowa 15.5% 0.4% 15.2% 15.2%
Boise St. 27.0% 16.1% 10.9% 13.0%
Stanford 10.2% 0.8% 9.4% 9.4%
Rutgers 8.2% 0.3% 7.9% 8.0%
LSU 7.8% 0.0% 7.8% 7.8%
Santa Clara 9.6% 4.1% 5.4% 5.7%
Utah 5.7% 0.1% 5.6% 5.6%
TCU 3.7% 0.1% 3.7% 3.7%
North Texas 29.8% 27.2% 2.6% 3.6%
Georgetown 3.1% 0.6% 2.5% 2.5%
Oregon St. 6.1% 3.7% 2.3% 2.4%
Colorado St. 10.4% 8.7% 1.7% 1.9%
Minnesota 1.8% 0.0% 1.8% 1.8%
Providence 2.7% 1.1% 1.6% 1.6%
Florida St. 1.8% 0.3% 1.5% 1.5%
Dayton 11.2% 10.1% 1.1% 1.3%
Team Bid Chance Auto-Chance At-Large Chance At-Large If Not Auto
San Francisco 4.1% 2.8% 1.2% 1.3%
Notre Dame 1.7% 0.7% 1.0% 1.0%
Kansas St. 1.0% 0.1% 0.9% 0.9%
Butler 1.6% 0.8% 0.8% 0.8%
George Mason 16.2% 15.6% 0.6% 0.8%
UC San Diego 40.1% 39.7% 0.5% 0.7%
Washington 0.5% 0.5% 0.5%
Washington St. 1.7% 1.3% 0.4% 0.4%
South Carolina 0.4% 0.0% 0.4% 0.4%
Bradley 27.2% 27.0% 0.2% 0.3%
Nevada 4.6% 4.4% 0.2% 0.2%
Saint Joseph's 13.4% 13.3% 0.1% 0.1%
St. Bonaventure 6.1% 6.0% 0.1% 0.1%
North Carolina St. 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1%
California 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Colorado 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Virginia 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
UNLV 3.1% 3.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Georgia Tech 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Syracuse 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Oklahoma St. 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%