Projected NCAA Tournament Seeding
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26

Last Updated: Mar 1, 2025
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View: Probabilistic Seeding


Seed Team Bid Type Bid Chance Auto-Chance At-Large Chance At-Large If Not Auto
1  Auburn Auto 100.0% 37.0% 63.0% 100.0%
1  Houston Auto 100.0% 44.1% 55.9% 100.0%
1  Duke Auto 100.0% 74.3% 25.7% 100.0%
1  Alabama At-Large 100.0% 17.1% 82.9% 100.0%
2  Florida At-Large 100.0% 21.2% 78.9% 100.0%
2  Tennessee At-Large 100.0% 12.3% 87.7% 100.0%
2  Michigan St. Auto 100.0% 22.4% 77.6% 100.0%
2  St. John's Auto 100.0% 38.2% 61.8% 100.0%
3  Wisconsin At-Large 100.0% 22.0% 78.0% 100.0%
3  Arizona At-Large 100.0% 15.5% 84.5% 100.0%
3  Kentucky At-Large 100.0% 2.2% 97.8% 100.0%
3  Texas Tech At-Large 100.0% 15.0% 85.0% 100.0%
4  Michigan At-Large 100.0% 10.8% 89.2% 100.0%
4  Missouri At-Large 100.0% 6.3% 93.7% 100.0%
4  Maryland At-Large 99.9% 13.7% 86.2% 99.9%
4  Purdue At-Large 100.0% 13.8% 86.2% 100.0%
5  St. Mary's At-Large 99.7% 30.4% 69.3% 99.5%
5  Texas A&M At-Large 100.0% 1.6% 98.4% 100.0%
5  Iowa St. At-Large 99.8% 10.6% 89.2% 99.8%
5  Kansas At-Large 98.6% 5.4% 93.2% 98.5%
6  Illinois At-Large 99.3% 5.7% 93.6% 99.3%
6  UCLA At-Large 99.7% 5.4% 94.2% 99.6%
6  Louisville At-Large 98.5% 9.3% 89.2% 98.3%
6  Marquette At-Large 99.5% 17.1% 82.5% 99.4%
7  Clemson At-Large 97.7% 10.4% 87.2% 97.4%
7  Mississippi St. At-Large 98.6% 0.6% 98.0% 98.6%
7  Oregon At-Large 99.5% 2.2% 97.4% 99.5%
7  BYU At-Large 97.6% 5.3% 92.3% 97.4%
8  Mississippi At-Large 98.3% 0.8% 97.5% 98.3%
8  Creighton At-Large 97.4% 18.6% 78.8% 96.8%
8  Connecticut At-Large 95.6% 13.0% 82.6% 94.9%
8  Gonzaga Auto 94.2% 58.3% 35.9% 86.0%
Seed Team Bid Type Bid Chance Auto-Chance At-Large Chance At-Large If Not Auto
9  Vanderbilt At-Large 81.2% 0.1% 81.1% 81.2%
9  Arkansas At-Large 73.6% 0.3% 73.2% 73.5%
9  Memphis Auto 88.7% 48.5% 40.2% 78.1%
9  New Mexico Auto 81.4% 27.3% 54.1% 74.4%
10  West Virginia At-Large 77.3% 0.8% 76.6% 77.1%
10  Baylor At-Large 76.2% 2.6% 73.7% 75.6%
10  Utah St. At-Large 73.8% 20.9% 52.9% 66.8%
10  San Diego St. At-Large 72.9% 15.8% 57.1% 67.8%
11  Virginia Commonwealth Auto 67.5% 54.1% 13.5% 29.3%
11  Ohio St. At-Large 68.7% 1.8% 66.8% 68.1%
11  Boise St. At-Large 53.0% 17.7% 35.3% 42.9%
11  Nebraska At-Large 62.9% 0.6% 62.3% 62.7%
11  Indiana At-Large 44.9% 0.9% 44.0% 44.4%
11  Georgia At-Large 54.3% 0.2% 54.1% 54.2%
12  UC San Diego Auto 63.0% 60.3% 2.7% 6.7%
12  Drake Auto 42.7% 40.3% 2.4% 4.0%
12  Liberty Auto 36.6% 36.6% 0.1% 0.1%
12  McNeese St. Auto 70.6% 70.6%
13  Yale Auto 63.8% 63.8%
13  Arkansas St. Auto 37.1% 37.1%
13  High Point Auto 54.6% 54.6%
13  Grand Canyon Auto 50.2% 50.2%
14  Lipscomb Auto 43.7% 43.7%
14  Akron Auto 34.4% 34.4%
14  South Dakota St. Auto 33.3% 33.3%
14  Samford Auto 27.3% 27.3%
15  UNC Wilmington Auto 31.1% 31.1%
15  Wisconsin-Milwaukee Auto 23.1% 23.1%
15  Northern Colorado Auto 29.7% 29.7%
15  Central Connecticut St. Auto 56.9% 56.9%
16  Norfolk St. Auto 45.6% 45.6%
16  Bryant Auto 35.3% 35.3%
16  Quinnipiac Auto 25.6% 25.6%
16  Southern Auto 34.0% 34.0%
16  Southeast Missouri St. Auto 41.9% 41.9%
16  Bucknell Auto 27.0% 27.0%



Bubble Teams - Last at Large Teams

Team Bid Chance Auto-Chance At-Large Chance At-Large If Not Auto
Vanderbilt 81.2% 0.1% 81.1% 81.2%
West Virginia 77.3% 0.8% 76.6% 77.1%
Baylor 76.2% 2.6% 73.7% 75.6%
Arkansas 73.6% 0.3% 73.2% 73.5%
Ohio St. 68.7% 1.8% 66.8% 68.1%
San Diego St. 72.9% 15.8% 57.1% 67.8%
Utah St. 73.8% 20.9% 52.9% 66.8%
Nebraska 62.9% 0.6% 62.3% 62.7%
Georgia 54.3% 0.2% 54.1% 54.2%
Indiana 44.9% 0.9% 44.0% 44.4%
Boise St. 53.0% 17.7% 35.3% 42.9%


Bubble Teams - First Teams Out

Team Bid Chance Auto-Chance At-Large Chance At-Large If Not Auto
Oklahoma 41.2% 0.1% 41.1% 41.1%
Texas 37.9% 0.1% 37.8% 37.8%
Cincinnati 33.2% 0.5% 32.7% 32.9%
North Carolina 33.8% 2.3% 31.5% 32.2%
SMU 33.6% 2.5% 31.1% 31.9%
Xavier 35.4% 5.4% 30.0% 31.7%
Villanova 28.3% 5.1% 23.3% 24.5%
Wake Forest 15.2% 0.5% 14.8% 14.8%
Northwestern 14.0% 0.3% 13.7% 13.7%
TCU 7.8% 0.1% 7.8% 7.8%
San Francisco 11.7% 4.3% 7.3% 7.7%
Santa Clara 11.5% 6.1% 5.4% 5.7%
Pittsburgh 6.2% 0.5% 5.7% 5.7%
Colorado St. 14.9% 10.9% 4.1% 4.6%
USC 2.2% 0.1% 2.1% 2.1%
Utah 1.3% 0.1% 1.2% 1.2%
Kansas St. 1.4% 0.2% 1.2% 1.2%
Stanford 1.2% 0.1% 1.1% 1.1%
North Texas 26.7% 26.0% 0.7% 0.9%
Central Florida 0.8% 0.0% 0.8% 0.8%
Rutgers 0.9% 0.1% 0.8% 0.8%
George Mason 13.7% 13.0% 0.7% 0.7%
UC Irvine 28.9% 28.5% 0.4% 0.5%
Dayton 8.7% 8.3% 0.4% 0.4%
Minnesota 0.4% 0.4% 0.4%
Georgetown 1.3% 0.9% 0.4% 0.4%
Arizona St. 0.3% 0.3% 0.3%
Iowa 0.4% 0.1% 0.3% 0.3%
Oregon St. 0.9% 0.7% 0.1% 0.1%
Team Bid Chance Auto-Chance At-Large Chance At-Large If Not Auto
Butler 1.2% 1.1% 0.1% 0.1%
LSU 0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Penn St. 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1%
Florida St. 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Virginia 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bradley 20.3% 20.3% 0.0% 0.0%
Saint Joseph's 12.3% 12.3% 0.0% 0.0%
Nevada 4.9% 4.9% 0.0% 0.0%
Providence 0.6% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0%
Oklahoma St. 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%