Florida
Southeastern
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+22.2#4
Expected Predictive Rating+23.2#2
Pace72.4#69
Improvement+2.1#98

Offense
Total Offense+12.7#5
First Shot+9.1#15
After Offensive Rebound+3.5#19
Layup/Dunks+6.5#14
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.9#290
3 Pt Jumpshots+4.8#50
Freethrows-0.2#183
Improvement-0.1#189

Defense
Total Defense+9.6#10
First Shot+10.1#6
After Offensive Rebounds-0.5#232
Layups/Dunks+2.4#85
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.4#299
3 Pt Jumpshots+6.9#5
Freethrows+2.2#50
Improvement+2.2#65
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 10.9% 11.8% 5.7%
#1 Seed 59.4% 61.7% 45.8%
Top 2 Seed 95.3% 96.1% 90.4%
Top 4 Seed 99.9% 100.0% 99.6%
Top 6 Seed 100.0% 100.0% 99.9%
NCAA Tourney Bid 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Average Seed 1.5 1.4 1.7
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Conference Champion 11.2% 12.6% 2.3%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Second Round99.3% 99.3% 99.1%
Sweet Sixteen78.4% 78.7% 76.3%
Elite Eight55.3% 55.7% 52.7%
Final Four34.7% 35.3% 30.9%
Championship Game20.6% 21.2% 17.2%
National Champion11.6% 11.9% 9.7%

Next Game: LSU (Away) - 86.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 1 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a6 - 46 - 4
Quad 1b3 - 19 - 5
Quad 29 - 018 - 5
Quad 34 - 022 - 5
Quad 46 - 028 - 5


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 176   South Florida W 98-83 97%     1 - 0 +14.1 +17.4 -4.6
  Nov 07, 2024 193   Jacksonville W 81-60 98%     2 - 0 +16.6 +11.9 +5.5
  Nov 11, 2024 327   Grambling St. W 86-62 99.6%    3 - 0 +11.3 +5.9 +4.4
  Nov 15, 2024 82   @ Florida St. W 87-74 88%     4 - 0 +22.4 +15.9 +5.8
  Nov 19, 2024 321   Florida A&M W 84-60 99.5%    5 - 0 +12.0 +6.3 +6.1
  Nov 22, 2024 179   Southern Illinois W 93-68 98%     6 - 0 +21.5 +16.5 +4.3
  Nov 28, 2024 55   Wake Forest W 75-58 86%     7 - 0 +27.6 +12.7 +15.5
  Nov 29, 2024 115   Wichita St. W 88-51 95%     8 - 0 +39.8 +19.0 +21.5
  Dec 04, 2024 93   Virginia W 87-69 96%     9 - 0 +20.7 +22.5 -0.3
  Dec 14, 2024 65   Arizona St. W 83-66 90%     10 - 0 +25.3 +9.4 +14.7
  Dec 17, 2024 40   North Carolina W 90-84 83%     11 - 0 +18.1 +12.5 +5.0
  Dec 21, 2024 266   North Florida W 99-45 99%     12 - 0 +45.9 +12.5 +30.4
  Dec 29, 2024 349   Stetson W 85-45 99.7%    13 - 0 +24.6 -3.4 +25.3
  Jan 04, 2025 17   @ Kentucky L 100-106 61%     13 - 1 0 - 1 +13.5 +30.4 -16.8
  Jan 07, 2025 5   Tennessee W 73-43 68%     14 - 1 1 - 1 +47.4 +14.4 +34.1
  Jan 11, 2025 35   @ Arkansas W 71-63 75%     15 - 1 2 - 1 +23.3 +9.6 +13.9
  Jan 14, 2025 15   Missouri L 82-83 75%     15 - 2 2 - 2 +14.1 +15.1 -1.0
  Jan 18, 2025 36   Texas W 84-60 87%     16 - 2 3 - 2 +34.2 +15.9 +18.4
  Jan 22, 2025 84   @ South Carolina W 70-69 88%     17 - 2 4 - 2 +10.3 +10.4 +0.0
  Jan 25, 2025 44   Georgia W 89-59 89%     18 - 2 5 - 2 +39.1 +24.4 +15.5
  Feb 01, 2025 5   @ Tennessee L 44-64 49%     18 - 3 5 - 3 +2.5 -10.4 +10.8
  Feb 04, 2025 53   Vanderbilt W 86-75 90%     19 - 3 6 - 3 +19.1 +19.6 +0.0
  Feb 08, 2025 1   @ Auburn W 90-81 35%     20 - 3 7 - 3 +35.1 +23.3 +11.3
  Feb 11, 2025 28   @ Mississippi St. W 81-68 68%     21 - 3 8 - 3 +30.3 +15.8 +14.4
  Feb 15, 2025 84   South Carolina W 88-67 94%     22 - 3 9 - 3 +25.2 +22.9 +3.2
  Feb 18, 2025 50   Oklahoma W 85-63 90%     23 - 3 10 - 3 +30.3 +16.8 +13.9
  Feb 22, 2025 72   @ LSU W 83-71 86%    
  Feb 25, 2025 44   @ Georgia W 78-70 76%    
  Mar 01, 2025 20   Texas A&M W 77-68 81%    
  Mar 05, 2025 6   @ Alabama W 89-88 49%    
  Mar 08, 2025 25   Mississippi W 81-71 83%    
Projected Record 27 - 4 14 - 4




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southeastern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 3.2 7.8 11.2 1st
2nd 0.5 15.9 36.2 15.5 67.9 2nd
3rd 0.0 3.2 9.1 1.0 13.2 3rd
4th 0.2 3.6 1.4 5.2 4th
5th 0.0 0.7 1.2 0.0 1.9 5th
6th 0.0 0.3 0.1 0.5 6th
7th 0.1 0.1 0.1 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
13th 13th
14th 14th
15th 15th
16th 16th
Total 0.1 1.3 8.4 26.5 40.4 23.3 Total



Southeastern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 33.7% 7.8    2.2 5.7
14-4 8.0% 3.2    0.2 1.8 1.1 0.2 0.0
13-5 0.3% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-6 0.0%
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9
Total 11.2% 11.2 2.4 7.5 1.1 0.2 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 23.3% 100.0% 30.7% 69.3% 1.2 18.0 5.2 0.1 100.0%
14-4 40.4% 100.0% 25.4% 74.6% 1.4 25.3 14.3 0.8 0.0 100.0%
13-5 26.5% 100.0% 23.3% 76.7% 1.6 13.0 11.7 1.6 0.2 0.0 100.0%
12-6 8.4% 100.0% 14.6% 85.4% 1.8 2.9 4.2 1.2 0.2 100.0%
11-7 1.3% 100.0% 12.3% 87.7% 2.2 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.1 0.0 100.0%
10-8 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
9-9
8-10
7-11
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 100.0% 25.0% 75.0% 1.5 59.4 35.9 4.1 0.5 0.1 0.0 100.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 7.1% 100.0% 1.1 86.6 13.3 0.1
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 5.5% 100.0% 1.2 78.5 21.1 0.4
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 5.7% 100.0% 1.3 69.6 29.9 0.5