Florida
Southeastern
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+18.1#7
Expected Predictive Rating+22.0#5
Pace75.3#41
Improvement+2.1#52

Offense
Total Offense+11.2#7
First Shot+8.3#13
After Offensive Rebound+3.0#33
Layup/Dunks+4.7#39
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.3#260
3 Pt Jumpshots+4.7#45
Freethrows+0.2#170
Improvement+0.2#155

Defense
Total Defense+6.9#20
First Shot+8.6#8
After Offensive Rebounds-1.7#308
Layups/Dunks+1.8#104
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.9#315
3 Pt Jumpshots+6.2#8
Freethrows+2.4#44
Improvement+1.9#49
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 4.7% 4.8% 1.4%
#1 Seed 22.9% 23.1% 9.0%
Top 2 Seed 49.6% 50.0% 26.1%
Top 4 Seed 81.5% 81.9% 59.0%
Top 6 Seed 92.8% 93.0% 82.2%
NCAA Tourney Bid 99.1% 99.2% 97.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 99.0% 99.0% 97.5%
Average Seed 3.0 3.0 4.2
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 99.9%
.500 or above in Conference 88.2% 88.4% 77.9%
Conference Champion 13.1% 13.3% 4.2%
Last Place in Conference 0.3% 0.3% 0.9%
First Four0.6% 0.6% 2.2%
First Round98.9% 98.9% 96.3%
Second Round90.3% 90.4% 82.7%
Sweet Sixteen60.6% 60.9% 48.3%
Elite Eight34.3% 34.5% 23.9%
Final Four18.3% 18.4% 11.9%
Championship Game9.4% 9.4% 6.6%
National Champion4.6% 4.6% 3.5%

Next Game: North Florida (Home) - 98.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 2 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a5 - 55 - 5
Quad 1b5 - 110 - 7
Quad 27 - 117 - 7
Quad 34 - 020 - 7
Quad 45 - 026 - 7


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 180   South Florida W 98-83 95%     1 - 0 +14.0 +15.4 -2.8
  Nov 07, 2024 205   Jacksonville W 81-60 97%     2 - 0 +16.0 +11.9 +5.0
  Nov 11, 2024 308   Grambling St. W 86-62 99%     3 - 0 +12.9 +4.2 +7.6
  Nov 15, 2024 63   @ Florida St. W 87-74 73%     4 - 0 +24.8 +15.9 +8.1
  Nov 19, 2024 357   Florida A&M W 84-60 99.6%    5 - 0 +7.3 +6.8 +0.9
  Nov 22, 2024 168   Southern Illinois W 93-68 97%     6 - 0 +21.4 +17.4 +3.3
  Nov 28, 2024 86   Wake Forest W 75-58 86%     7 - 0 +23.5 +10.4 +13.8
  Nov 29, 2024 110   Wichita St. W 88-51 90%     8 - 0 +40.7 +19.2 +22.2
  Dec 04, 2024 90   Virginia W 87-69 91%     9 - 0 +21.2 +27.1 -4.4
  Dec 14, 2024 62   Arizona St. W 83-66 81%     10 - 0 +26.0 +9.4 +15.3
  Dec 17, 2024 22   North Carolina W 90-84 65%     11 - 0 +20.1 +13.4 +6.1
  Dec 21, 2024 188   North Florida W 97-75 98%    
  Dec 29, 2024 344   Stetson W 96-63 99.9%   
  Jan 04, 2025 9   @ Kentucky L 86-88 42%    
  Jan 07, 2025 3   Tennessee W 75-74 52%    
  Jan 11, 2025 29   @ Arkansas W 82-80 58%    
  Jan 14, 2025 55   Missouri W 86-75 85%    
  Jan 18, 2025 31   Texas W 81-72 79%    
  Jan 22, 2025 69   @ South Carolina W 79-72 73%    
  Jan 25, 2025 32   Georgia W 82-73 79%    
  Feb 01, 2025 3   @ Tennessee L 72-77 31%    
  Feb 04, 2025 50   Vanderbilt W 88-77 84%    
  Feb 08, 2025 1   @ Auburn L 79-87 24%    
  Feb 11, 2025 28   @ Mississippi St. W 80-78 56%    
  Feb 15, 2025 69   South Carolina W 82-69 88%    
  Feb 18, 2025 34   Oklahoma W 84-75 79%    
  Feb 22, 2025 56   @ LSU W 83-77 69%    
  Feb 25, 2025 32   @ Georgia W 79-76 59%    
  Mar 01, 2025 25   Texas A&M W 78-71 74%    
  Mar 05, 2025 8   @ Alabama L 87-89 42%    
  Mar 08, 2025 27   Mississippi W 82-74 76%    
Projected Record 24 - 7 11 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southeastern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 1.4 3.6 4.2 2.7 0.9 0.1 13.1 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 2.4 6.0 5.5 2.2 0.4 0.0 16.6 2nd
3rd 0.1 2.1 6.5 5.7 1.5 0.1 16.0 3rd
4th 0.0 1.1 5.4 5.3 1.3 0.1 13.1 4th
5th 0.3 3.4 5.2 1.4 0.1 10.3 5th
6th 0.0 1.3 4.8 1.9 0.1 8.2 6th
7th 0.3 3.2 2.5 0.2 0.0 6.2 7th
8th 0.0 1.3 2.9 0.6 0.0 4.8 8th
9th 0.0 0.3 2.2 1.3 0.1 3.8 9th
10th 0.0 0.9 1.6 0.3 0.0 2.7 10th
11th 0.0 0.2 1.1 0.6 0.0 2.0 11th
12th 0.0 0.5 0.7 0.1 1.3 12th
13th 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.9 13th
14th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.6 14th
15th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.3 15th
16th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 16th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.5 3.2 6.1 9.2 12.5 15.0 15.8 14.4 10.7 6.6 3.0 0.9 0.1 Total



Southeastern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
17-1 98.1% 0.9    0.9 0.0
16-2 88.4% 2.7    2.1 0.6 0.0
15-3 64.6% 4.2    2.4 1.6 0.2 0.0
14-4 33.7% 3.6    1.1 1.7 0.7 0.1
13-5 10.0% 1.4    0.2 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.0
12-6 0.6% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0% 0.0    0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 13.1% 13.1 6.9 4.5 1.4 0.3 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.1% 100.0% 34.8% 65.2% 1.2 0.1 0.0 100.0%
17-1 0.9% 100.0% 40.6% 59.4% 1.1 0.9 0.1 100.0%
16-2 3.0% 100.0% 29.5% 70.5% 1.2 2.4 0.6 0.0 100.0%
15-3 6.6% 100.0% 24.2% 75.8% 1.3 4.5 2.0 0.1 0.0 100.0%
14-4 10.7% 100.0% 20.2% 79.8% 1.5 5.8 4.3 0.6 0.0 100.0%
13-5 14.4% 100.0% 15.4% 84.6% 1.9 4.8 6.9 2.4 0.3 0.0 100.0%
12-6 15.8% 100.0% 11.6% 88.4% 2.3 2.9 6.9 4.7 1.2 0.1 100.0%
11-7 15.0% 100.0% 7.7% 92.3% 2.9 1.2 4.0 5.8 3.1 0.6 0.1 0.0 100.0%
10-8 12.5% 100.0% 4.4% 95.6% 3.6 0.2 1.6 4.1 4.1 1.9 0.5 0.0 0.0 100.0%
9-9 9.2% 100.0% 3.3% 96.7% 4.5 0.0 0.3 1.7 2.7 2.7 1.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 100.0%
8-10 6.1% 99.6% 2.9% 96.7% 5.9 0.0 0.3 0.7 1.4 1.8 1.0 0.6 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.6%
7-11 3.2% 96.5% 1.2% 95.2% 7.6 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.1 96.4%
6-12 1.5% 88.1% 0.6% 87.6% 9.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.0 0.2 88.1%
5-13 0.7% 57.0% 57.0% 10.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.3 57.0%
4-14 0.2% 16.9% 16.9% 11.5 0.0 0.0 0.2 16.9%
3-15 0.0% 0.0
2-16 0.0% 0.0
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 99.1% 11.3% 87.8% 3.0 22.9 26.7 19.8 12.1 7.0 4.3 2.1 1.5 1.3 0.9 0.6 0.1 0.9 99.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.0% 100.0% 1.1 87.5 12.5