Tennessee
Southeastern
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+18.7#8
Expected Predictive Rating+22.6#3
Pace63.5#311
Improvement-4.5#347

Offense
Total Offense+8.0#23
First Shot+5.7#47
After Offensive Rebound+2.3#56
Layup/Dunks+3.5#63
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.1#245
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.1#111
Freethrows+1.2#100
Improvement-1.7#279

Defense
Total Defense+10.7#5
First Shot+9.4#5
After Offensive Rebounds+1.4#69
Layups/Dunks+6.1#22
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.4#163
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.9#157
Freethrows+2.0#58
Improvement-2.9#322
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 3.6% 4.3% 1.7%
#1 Seed 22.3% 25.7% 13.2%
Top 2 Seed 57.0% 62.7% 41.6%
Top 4 Seed 91.5% 94.4% 83.5%
Top 6 Seed 98.2% 99.2% 95.1%
NCAA Tourney Bid 99.9% 100.0% 99.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 99.9% 100.0% 99.7%
Average Seed 2.6 2.4 3.1
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 92.5% 95.4% 84.4%
Conference Champion 6.4% 8.0% 1.9%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.1% 0.0% 0.3%
First Round99.8% 100.0% 99.5%
Second Round94.8% 95.8% 91.9%
Sweet Sixteen65.3% 67.5% 59.4%
Elite Eight37.0% 39.4% 30.5%
Final Four18.7% 20.4% 14.3%
Championship Game8.8% 9.8% 6.1%
National Champion4.0% 4.5% 2.5%

Next Game: Mississippi St. (Home) - 73.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 2 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a7 - 67 - 6
Quad 1b5 - 211 - 7
Quad 23 - 015 - 8
Quad 35 - 019 - 8
Quad 46 - 025 - 8


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 241   Gardner-Webb W 80-64 98%     1 - 0 +8.9 +6.2 +3.3
  Nov 09, 2024 27   @ Louisville W 77-55 59%     2 - 0 +38.5 +14.6 +24.8
  Nov 13, 2024 226   Montana W 92-57 98%     3 - 0 +28.6 +17.5 +11.8
  Nov 17, 2024 300   Austin Peay W 103-68 99%     4 - 0 +24.6 +24.9 -1.2
  Nov 21, 2024 107   Virginia W 64-42 92%     5 - 0 +25.5 +5.8 +23.2
  Nov 22, 2024 22   Baylor W 77-62 63%     6 - 0 +30.2 +21.2 +11.2
  Nov 27, 2024 290   Tennessee Martin W 78-35 99%     7 - 0 +33.0 +10.9 +28.1
  Dec 03, 2024 103   Syracuse W 96-70 94%     8 - 0 +27.2 +23.7 +3.5
  Dec 10, 2024 155   Miami (FL) W 75-62 94%     9 - 0 +13.6 -0.2 +14.2
  Dec 14, 2024 9   @ Illinois W 66-64 40%     10 - 0 +23.5 +8.2 +15.4
  Dec 17, 2024 341   Western Carolina W 84-36 99%     11 - 0 +33.7 +2.9 +28.6
  Dec 23, 2024 111   Middle Tennessee W 82-64 95%     12 - 0 +18.4 +9.9 +8.4
  Dec 31, 2024 179   Norfolk St. W 67-52 97%     13 - 0 +11.4 +2.4 +11.4
  Jan 04, 2025 46   Arkansas W 76-52 83%     14 - 0 1 - 0 +32.4 +14.1 +20.1
  Jan 07, 2025 5   @ Florida L 43-73 33%     14 - 1 1 - 1 -6.8 -18.4 +10.4
  Jan 11, 2025 38   @ Texas W 74-70 65%     15 - 1 2 - 1 +18.7 +18.4 +0.9
  Jan 15, 2025 34   Georgia W 74-56 79%     16 - 1 3 - 1 +28.1 +14.7 +14.8
  Jan 18, 2025 49   @ Vanderbilt L 75-76 69%     16 - 2 3 - 2 +12.5 +15.7 -3.4
  Jan 21, 2025 23   Mississippi St. W 73-67 73%    
  Jan 25, 2025 2   @ Auburn L 69-76 25%    
  Jan 28, 2025 15   Kentucky W 79-74 69%    
  Feb 01, 2025 5   Florida W 73-72 55%    
  Feb 05, 2025 29   Missouri W 74-66 79%    
  Feb 08, 2025 45   @ Oklahoma W 72-67 67%    
  Feb 11, 2025 15   @ Kentucky L 76-77 47%    
  Feb 15, 2025 49   Vanderbilt W 77-66 85%    
  Feb 22, 2025 21   @ Texas A&M W 67-66 52%    
  Feb 25, 2025 64   @ LSU W 73-66 74%    
  Mar 01, 2025 7   Alabama W 79-77 59%    
  Mar 05, 2025 19   @ Mississippi W 68-67 51%    
  Mar 08, 2025 82   South Carolina W 72-57 91%    
Projected Record 24 - 7 11 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southeastern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 1.1 2.8 2.1 0.4 6.4 1st
2nd 0.2 2.7 7.9 4.5 0.9 0.0 16.2 2nd
3rd 0.0 1.7 8.1 5.1 0.5 15.5 3rd
4th 0.0 0.5 6.1 6.8 0.8 14.2 4th
5th 0.1 2.6 7.8 2.1 0.0 12.5 5th
6th 0.7 5.9 4.1 0.2 10.8 6th
7th 0.1 2.6 4.9 0.9 0.0 8.5 7th
8th 0.0 0.8 3.9 1.8 0.1 6.5 8th
9th 0.2 1.9 2.1 0.3 4.4 9th
10th 0.0 0.6 1.5 0.3 2.5 10th
11th 0.1 0.7 0.6 0.0 1.4 11th
12th 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.6 12th
13th 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.3 13th
14th 0.0 0.0 0.1 14th
15th 0.0 0.0 0.0 15th
16th 16th
Total 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.9 5.0 9.6 16.0 20.8 19.9 14.9 7.9 3.1 0.4 Total



Southeastern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2 94.7% 0.4    0.3 0.1
15-3 69.8% 2.1    1.3 0.7 0.1
14-4 35.5% 2.8    0.7 1.3 0.7 0.1
13-5 7.3% 1.1    0.1 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.0
12-6 0.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 6.4% 6.4 2.5 2.4 1.2 0.4 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2 0.4% 100.0% 26.3% 73.7% 1.2 0.3 0.1 100.0%
15-3 3.1% 100.0% 23.3% 76.7% 1.2 2.3 0.7 0.0 100.0%
14-4 7.9% 100.0% 19.2% 80.8% 1.4 5.0 2.6 0.2 100.0%
13-5 14.9% 100.0% 19.3% 80.7% 1.7 6.3 7.2 1.3 0.1 100.0%
12-6 19.9% 100.0% 12.7% 87.3% 2.0 5.1 10.4 4.0 0.4 0.0 100.0%
11-7 20.8% 100.0% 7.4% 92.6% 2.4 2.6 8.9 7.3 1.9 0.1 100.0%
10-8 16.0% 100.0% 5.9% 94.1% 3.1 0.6 3.9 6.5 4.2 0.8 0.1 100.0%
9-9 9.6% 100.0% 4.2% 95.8% 3.7 0.1 0.8 3.3 3.6 1.5 0.3 0.0 100.0%
8-10 5.0% 100.0% 2.2% 97.8% 4.9 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.2 1.8 1.1 0.4 0.1 100.0%
7-11 1.9% 100.0% 3.2% 96.8% 6.4 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 100.0%
6-12 0.5% 95.9% 95.9% 8.2 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 95.9%
5-13 0.2% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1
4-14 0.0% 0.0
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 99.9% 10.8% 89.1% 2.6 22.3 34.7 23.1 11.4 4.6 2.0 0.9 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 99.9%