Tennessee
Southeastern
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+17.4#8
Expected Predictive Rating+18.7#7
Pace71.7#105
Improvement+0.8#92

Offense
Total Offense+8.0#18
First Shot+9.2#15
After Offensive Rebound-1.2#246
Layup/Dunks+8.3#12
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.4#246
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.4#168
Freethrows+1.9#86
Improvement+1.2#42

Defense
Total Defense+9.5#5
First Shot+10.3#4
After Offensive Rebounds-0.9#241
Layups/Dunks+7.8#10
2 Pt Jumpshots+3.6#8
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.5#233
Freethrows+0.4#154
Improvement-0.3#238
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 4.8% 5.5% 2.1%
#1 Seed 19.8% 22.2% 10.8%
Top 2 Seed 39.4% 43.3% 24.8%
Top 4 Seed 67.9% 71.9% 53.1%
Top 6 Seed 83.2% 86.2% 72.3%
NCAA Tourney Bid 95.7% 96.8% 91.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 94.9% 96.1% 90.5%
Average Seed 3.6 3.4 4.5
.500 or above 98.9% 99.4% 97.1%
.500 or above in Conference 88.7% 90.1% 83.7%
Conference Champion 21.1% 22.8% 14.6%
Last Place in Conference 0.5% 0.4% 0.7%
First Four1.7% 1.4% 3.0%
First Round94.9% 96.2% 90.2%
Second Round82.1% 84.5% 73.0%
Sweet Sixteen53.4% 56.2% 42.7%
Elite Eight30.3% 32.6% 21.8%
Final Four16.1% 17.3% 11.2%
Championship Game8.2% 9.0% 5.1%
National Champion4.1% 4.6% 2.4%

Next Game: Virginia (Neutral) - 78.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 2 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a4 - 54 - 5
Quad 1b5 - 29 - 7
Quad 26 - 115 - 8
Quad 34 - 018 - 8
Quad 46 - 024 - 8


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 222   Gardner-Webb W 80-64 98%     1 - 0 +10.0 +7.3 +3.2
  Nov 09, 2024 46   @ Louisville W 77-55 67%     2 - 0 +34.9 +13.2 +22.6
  Nov 13, 2024 211   Montana W 92-57 97%     3 - 0 +29.5 +16.8 +13.5
  Nov 17, 2024 231   Austin Peay W 103-68 98%     4 - 0 +28.6 +23.7 +4.0
  Nov 21, 2024 58   Virginia W 66-58 79%    
  Nov 27, 2024 302   Tennessee Martin W 90-62 99.5%   
  Dec 03, 2024 92   Syracuse W 85-70 92%    
  Dec 10, 2024 37   Miami (FL) W 79-73 70%    
  Dec 14, 2024 26   @ Illinois W 77-76 54%    
  Dec 17, 2024 258   Western Carolina W 82-57 99%    
  Dec 23, 2024 165   Middle Tennessee W 82-61 97%    
  Dec 31, 2024 206   Norfolk St. W 83-60 98%    
  Jan 04, 2025 27   Arkansas W 78-71 74%    
  Jan 07, 2025 21   @ Florida W 80-79 52%    
  Jan 11, 2025 31   @ Texas W 74-72 56%    
  Jan 15, 2025 55   Georgia W 79-68 84%    
  Jan 18, 2025 82   @ Vanderbilt W 80-73 75%    
  Jan 21, 2025 29   Mississippi St. W 78-71 75%    
  Jan 25, 2025 3   @ Auburn L 74-79 32%    
  Jan 28, 2025 10   Kentucky W 82-78 62%    
  Feb 01, 2025 21   Florida W 83-77 71%    
  Feb 05, 2025 61   Missouri W 79-67 84%    
  Feb 08, 2025 51   @ Oklahoma W 74-69 67%    
  Feb 11, 2025 10   @ Kentucky L 79-81 42%    
  Feb 15, 2025 82   Vanderbilt W 83-70 88%    
  Feb 22, 2025 23   @ Texas A&M W 72-71 53%    
  Feb 25, 2025 48   @ LSU W 77-72 66%    
  Mar 01, 2025 9   Alabama W 82-79 62%    
  Mar 05, 2025 47   @ Mississippi W 75-70 66%    
  Mar 08, 2025 72   South Carolina W 78-65 86%    
Projected Record 23 - 7 12 - 6




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southeastern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 1.5 4.5 6.3 5.4 2.5 0.7 21.1 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 1.8 5.6 5.9 2.9 0.6 0.0 16.9 2nd
3rd 0.0 1.2 4.8 5.2 1.7 0.2 0.0 13.2 3rd
4th 0.5 3.7 5.0 1.5 0.1 10.8 4th
5th 0.2 2.1 4.6 2.0 0.1 8.9 5th
6th 0.0 0.9 3.7 2.3 0.2 0.0 7.1 6th
7th 0.2 2.3 2.5 0.6 0.0 5.6 7th
8th 0.0 1.0 2.7 0.9 0.0 4.7 8th
9th 0.3 1.7 1.3 0.1 3.4 9th
10th 0.0 0.9 1.5 0.3 0.0 2.7 10th
11th 0.0 0.3 1.2 0.6 0.0 2.0 11th
12th 0.0 0.1 0.6 0.6 0.1 1.5 12th
13th 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.2 0.0 1.0 13th
14th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.7 14th
15th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.4 15th
16th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 16th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.9 1.7 3.1 5.0 7.7 9.9 12.5 14.0 14.0 12.1 9.4 6.0 2.5 0.7 Total



Southeastern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.7    0.7
17-1 98.6% 2.5    2.3 0.2
16-2 90.3% 5.4    4.4 1.0 0.0
15-3 67.4% 6.3    3.7 2.3 0.3 0.0
14-4 36.7% 4.5    1.5 1.9 0.9 0.2 0.0
13-5 11.1% 1.5    0.2 0.6 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0
12-6 1.3% 0.2    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0% 0.0    0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 21.1% 21.1 12.7 6.0 1.8 0.5 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.7% 100.0% 52.0% 48.0% 1.1 0.6 0.1 0.0 100.0%
17-1 2.5% 100.0% 41.9% 58.1% 1.2 2.1 0.4 0.0 100.0%
16-2 6.0% 100.0% 36.5% 63.5% 1.3 4.3 1.6 0.1 0.0 100.0%
15-3 9.4% 100.0% 29.1% 70.9% 1.5 5.2 3.5 0.7 0.1 0.0 100.0%
14-4 12.1% 100.0% 24.4% 75.6% 1.9 4.2 5.1 2.2 0.5 0.1 0.0 100.0%
13-5 14.0% 100.0% 18.3% 81.7% 2.5 2.5 4.9 4.3 1.9 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
12-6 14.0% 100.0% 12.6% 87.4% 3.3 0.8 2.8 4.5 3.6 1.6 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
11-7 12.5% 99.9% 8.3% 91.6% 4.2 0.2 1.0 3.0 3.6 2.7 1.3 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.9%
10-8 9.9% 99.7% 4.9% 94.8% 5.3 0.0 0.2 1.0 2.0 2.5 2.1 1.3 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 99.7%
9-9 7.7% 98.2% 3.5% 94.7% 6.5 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.4 1.8 1.4 1.0 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.1 98.1%
8-10 5.0% 87.9% 1.7% 86.2% 8.2 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.7 0.8 0.9 0.6 0.5 0.0 0.6 87.7%
7-11 3.1% 66.0% 1.7% 64.3% 9.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.7 0.1 1.1 65.4%
6-12 1.7% 32.2% 1.0% 31.1% 10.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.1 1.2 31.5%
5-13 0.9% 10.3% 10.3% 11.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.8 10.3%
4-14 0.4% 3.5% 3.5% 11.4 0.0 0.0 0.3 3.5%
3-15 0.1% 0.1
2-16 0.0% 0.0
1-17 0.0% 0.0
0-18
Total 100% 95.7% 15.5% 80.1% 3.6 19.8 19.6 16.0 12.5 8.9 6.4 4.1 2.6 2.2 1.6 1.7 0.2 0.0 4.3 94.9%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.2% 100.0% 1.1 91.4 8.6
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.1% 100.0% 1.1 87.5 12.5
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.1% 100.0% 1.2 76.9 23.1