Middle Tennessee
Conference USA
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-0.4#165
Expected Predictive Rating+1.8#163
Pace68.9#191
Improvement-1.5#325

Offense
Total Offense-1.6#215
First Shot+0.9#145
After Offensive Rebound-2.5#312
Layup/Dunks+13.2#1
2 Pt Jumpshots-3.4#343
3 Pt Jumpshots-8.4#353
Freethrows-0.6#217
Improvement-0.6#282

Defense
Total Defense+1.3#133
First Shot+2.6#102
After Offensive Rebounds-1.3#263
Layups/Dunks-1.2#216
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.0#298
3 Pt Jumpshots+10.2#5
Freethrows-4.4#348
Improvement-0.9#294
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 4.6% 5.8% 3.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.5 13.2 13.9
.500 or above 38.9% 52.0% 27.1%
.500 or above in Conference 43.8% 51.3% 37.0%
Conference Champion 4.2% 5.7% 2.8%
Last Place in Conference 11.7% 8.5% 14.6%
First Four0.3% 0.3% 0.3%
First Round4.4% 5.6% 3.3%
Second Round0.5% 0.7% 0.3%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.2% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Ohio (Neutral) - 47.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 21 - 41 - 7
Quad 35 - 76 - 13
Quad 46 - 213 - 16


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2024 209   @ Abilene Christian W 79-56 46%     1 - 0 +23.6 +6.6 +16.6
  Nov 13, 2024 300   Evansville W 80-63 83%     2 - 0 +6.6 -2.4 +8.2
  Nov 16, 2024 109   Murray St. L 67-88 44%     2 - 1 -19.9 -4.6 -16.0
  Nov 21, 2024 156   Ohio L 73-74 47%    
  Dec 01, 2024 103   @ UAB L 68-76 23%    
  Dec 07, 2024 141   @ Belmont L 73-78 33%    
  Dec 16, 2024 181   California Baptist W 71-67 63%    
  Dec 19, 2024 151   Lipscomb W 74-72 58%    
  Dec 23, 2024 8   @ Tennessee L 61-82 3%    
  Jan 02, 2025 273   @ Florida International W 74-72 58%    
  Jan 04, 2025 81   @ Liberty L 60-70 17%    
  Jan 09, 2025 160   Kennesaw St. W 81-78 59%    
  Jan 11, 2025 184   Jacksonville St. W 68-64 63%    
  Jan 18, 2025 122   Western Kentucky L 75-76 49%    
  Jan 23, 2025 115   @ Sam Houston St. L 69-76 27%    
  Jan 25, 2025 87   @ Louisiana Tech L 63-73 20%    
  Jan 30, 2025 153   New Mexico St. W 69-67 58%    
  Feb 01, 2025 203   UTEP W 73-68 66%    
  Feb 06, 2025 184   @ Jacksonville St. L 65-67 43%    
  Feb 08, 2025 160   @ Kennesaw St. L 78-81 39%    
  Feb 15, 2025 122   @ Western Kentucky L 72-78 30%    
  Feb 20, 2025 87   Louisiana Tech L 66-70 37%    
  Feb 22, 2025 115   Sam Houston St. L 72-73 47%    
  Feb 27, 2025 153   @ New Mexico St. L 66-70 37%    
  Mar 01, 2025 203   @ UTEP L 70-71 46%    
  Mar 06, 2025 81   Liberty L 63-67 35%    
  Mar 08, 2025 273   Florida International W 77-69 76%    
Projected Record 12 - 15 8 - 10




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference USA Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.4 1.0 1.3 0.9 0.5 0.1 0.0 4.2 1st
2nd 0.1 1.0 2.2 2.1 0.9 0.2 0.0 6.5 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.2 1.8 3.6 2.7 0.7 0.1 0.0 9.2 3rd
4th 0.0 0.3 2.3 4.6 2.9 0.6 0.0 10.8 4th
5th 0.0 0.4 2.9 5.8 3.1 0.5 0.0 12.6 5th
6th 0.0 0.5 3.2 5.8 3.1 0.5 0.0 13.1 6th
7th 0.0 0.6 3.4 5.6 3.0 0.4 0.0 13.1 7th
8th 0.1 1.0 3.4 5.1 2.6 0.3 0.0 12.6 8th
9th 0.0 0.3 1.4 3.5 3.8 1.7 0.2 0.0 10.9 9th
10th 0.1 0.6 1.6 2.2 1.7 0.7 0.1 0.0 7.0 10th
Total 0.1 0.7 1.9 3.7 6.2 8.5 10.8 12.1 12.3 11.9 10.1 8.1 5.9 3.8 2.3 1.1 0.5 0.1 0.0 Total



Conference USA Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
17-1 100.0% 0.1    0.1 0.0
16-2 96.9% 0.5    0.4 0.1
15-3 80.8% 0.9    0.6 0.2 0.0
14-4 57.0% 1.3    0.7 0.5 0.1
13-5 26.1% 1.0    0.3 0.5 0.2 0.0
12-6 6.0% 0.4    0.0 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.6% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 4.2% 4.2 2.3 1.4 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
17-1 0.1% 44.6% 28.6% 16.1% 10.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 22.5%
16-2 0.5% 31.6% 29.5% 2.1% 11.7 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.3 2.9%
15-3 1.1% 24.2% 24.2% 12.2 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.8
14-4 2.3% 20.6% 20.5% 0.1% 12.5 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.0 1.8 0.1%
13-5 3.8% 16.0% 16.0% 12.7 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 3.2
12-6 5.9% 11.2% 11.2% 13.1 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.0 5.2
11-7 8.1% 7.8% 7.8% 13.5 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 7.4
10-8 10.1% 5.7% 5.7% 13.8 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 9.5
9-9 11.9% 4.2% 4.2% 14.5 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 11.4
8-10 12.3% 2.7% 2.7% 15.2 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.1 12.0
7-11 12.1% 1.7% 1.7% 15.7 0.0 0.1 0.1 11.8
6-12 10.8% 0.8% 0.8% 15.9 0.0 0.1 10.7
5-13 8.5% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 8.5
4-14 6.2% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 6.2
3-15 3.7% 3.7
2-16 1.9% 1.9
1-17 0.7% 0.7
0-18 0.1% 0.1
Total 100% 4.6% 4.5% 0.0% 13.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.9 1.4 0.9 0.7 0.4 95.4 0.0%