Middle Tennessee
Conference USA
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+3.1#111
Expected Predictive Rating+6.7#83
Pace70.0#137
Improvement+2.2#78

Offense
Total Offense+0.7#158
First Shot+1.0#147
After Offensive Rebound-0.3#204
Layup/Dunks+4.4#43
2 Pt Jumpshots-3.5#348
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.4#166
Freethrows-0.3#199
Improvement-0.9#234

Defense
Total Defense+2.4#103
First Shot+3.1#85
After Offensive Rebounds-0.7#248
Layups/Dunks-1.4#225
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.5#151
3 Pt Jumpshots+5.1#16
Freethrows-1.1#266
Improvement+3.1#42
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 14.5% 16.5% 12.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.0 12.8 13.1
.500 or above 96.7% 99.1% 94.2%
.500 or above in Conference 90.0% 95.8% 83.7%
Conference Champion 31.9% 41.3% 21.8%
Last Place in Conference 0.3% 0.1% 0.6%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round14.5% 16.5% 12.3%
Second Round1.7% 2.3% 1.2%
Sweet Sixteen0.4% 0.4% 0.4%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Sam Houston St. (Away) - 51.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 1
Quad 22 - 42 - 5
Quad 310 - 613 - 11
Quad 47 - 119 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2024 242   @ Abilene Christian W 79-56 68%     1 - 0 +21.3 +7.8 +13.1
  Nov 13, 2024 261   Evansville W 80-63 86%     2 - 0 +8.6 +3.3 +4.5
  Nov 16, 2024 141   Murray St. L 67-88 66%     2 - 1 -22.2 -4.0 -18.9
  Nov 21, 2024 146   Ohio W 83-81 OT 58%     3 - 1 +3.1 -2.5 +5.3
  Nov 22, 2024 154   South Florida W 95-88 60%     4 - 1 +7.6 +21.3 -13.7
  Nov 24, 2024 74   Bradley L 69-80 33%     4 - 2 -3.4 +5.9 -10.2
  Dec 01, 2024 97   @ UAB W 76-69 32%     5 - 2 +14.9 +4.6 +10.5
  Dec 07, 2024 139   @ Belmont L 79-82 46%     5 - 3 +1.3 +2.7 -1.3
  Dec 16, 2024 172   California Baptist W 75-64 73%     6 - 3 +7.8 -0.8 +8.4
  Dec 19, 2024 92   Lipscomb W 67-65 49%     7 - 3 +5.4 +0.5 +5.0
  Dec 23, 2024 8   @ Tennessee L 64-82 5%     7 - 4 +3.5 +3.1 +0.5
  Jan 02, 2025 243   @ Florida International W 73-69 68%     8 - 4 1 - 0 +2.3 -0.8 +3.0
  Jan 04, 2025 91   @ Liberty L 63-73 29%     8 - 5 1 - 1 -1.1 -1.3 -0.3
  Jan 09, 2025 185   Kennesaw St. W 84-79 75%     9 - 5 2 - 1 +1.2 +3.3 -2.4
  Jan 11, 2025 162   Jacksonville St. W 81-64 71%     10 - 5 3 - 1 +14.5 +4.7 +9.7
  Jan 18, 2025 134   Western Kentucky W 71-57 65%     11 - 5 4 - 1 +13.0 +1.3 +11.8
  Jan 23, 2025 169   @ Sam Houston St. W 75-74 52%    
  Jan 25, 2025 121   @ Louisiana Tech L 69-71 40%    
  Jan 30, 2025 128   New Mexico St. W 72-68 65%    
  Feb 01, 2025 131   UTEP W 74-70 66%    
  Feb 06, 2025 162   @ Jacksonville St. W 71-70 49%    
  Feb 08, 2025 185   @ Kennesaw St. W 78-77 54%    
  Feb 15, 2025 134   @ Western Kentucky L 75-76 43%    
  Feb 20, 2025 121   Louisiana Tech W 71-68 62%    
  Feb 22, 2025 169   Sam Houston St. W 78-72 72%    
  Feb 27, 2025 128   @ New Mexico St. L 69-71 42%    
  Mar 01, 2025 131   @ UTEP L 72-73 44%    
  Mar 06, 2025 91   Liberty L 67-68 50%    
  Mar 08, 2025 243   Florida International W 77-67 83%    
Projected Record 18 - 11 11 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference USA Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 1.1 6.7 10.1 8.2 4.3 1.3 0.2 31.9 1st
2nd 0.0 0.6 6.8 8.6 3.1 0.4 0.0 19.6 2nd
3rd 0.2 4.4 7.7 2.6 0.1 14.9 3rd
4th 0.0 2.0 7.2 2.3 0.2 11.6 4th
5th 0.7 5.0 2.9 0.1 8.7 5th
6th 0.2 2.4 3.2 0.3 6.1 6th
7th 0.1 0.9 2.4 0.5 3.8 7th
8th 0.0 0.4 1.2 0.8 0.0 2.4 8th
9th 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.0 1.0 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 10th
Total 0.0 0.2 0.9 2.6 6.3 10.8 15.4 18.0 18.1 13.4 8.6 4.3 1.3 0.2 Total



Conference USA Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1 100.0% 0.2    0.2
16-2 100.0% 1.3    1.3
15-3 99.8% 4.3    4.1 0.2
14-4 95.6% 8.2    6.7 1.4 0.0
13-5 75.7% 10.1    5.8 3.7 0.6 0.0
12-6 37.3% 6.7    1.6 3.0 1.7 0.4 0.0
11-7 6.1% 1.1    0.1 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.1
10-8 0.2% 0.0    0.0
9-9 0.0%
Total 31.9% 31.9 19.8 8.4 2.8 0.7 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1 0.2% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
16-2 1.3% 34.1% 34.1% 11.9 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.9
15-3 4.3% 25.4% 25.4% 12.3 0.0 0.7 0.4 3.2
14-4 8.6% 26.4% 26.4% 12.6 0.0 1.1 1.1 0.1 6.3
13-5 13.4% 19.4% 19.4% 12.7 0.0 1.0 1.4 0.3 10.8
12-6 18.1% 16.4% 16.4% 12.9 0.0 0.8 1.6 0.6 0.0 15.1
11-7 18.0% 12.6% 12.6% 13.3 0.2 1.2 0.8 0.1 15.7
10-8 15.4% 10.9% 10.9% 13.4 0.1 0.8 0.8 0.0 13.7
9-9 10.8% 6.9% 6.9% 13.7 0.0 0.3 0.3 0.1 10.1
8-10 6.3% 4.6% 4.6% 14.3 0.2 0.1 6.0
7-11 2.6% 3.4% 3.4% 15.1 0.1 0.0 2.6
6-12 0.9% 1.1% 1.1% 15.0 0.0 0.9
5-13 0.2% 0.2
4-14 0.0% 0.0
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 14.5% 14.5% 0.0% 13.0 0.0 0.2 4.1 6.7 3.0 0.4 0.0 85.5 0.0%