Middle Tennessee
Conference USA
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+2.2#122
Expected Predictive Rating+4.7#100
Pace69.5#137
Improvement-1.7#268

Offense
Total Offense+1.0#146
First Shot+1.2#132
After Offensive Rebound-0.1#194
Layup/Dunks+4.5#38
2 Pt Jumpshots-3.5#349
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.4#169
Freethrows-0.3#194
Improvement-1.0#233

Defense
Total Defense+1.2#136
First Shot+2.1#102
After Offensive Rebounds-0.9#270
Layups/Dunks-1.8#251
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.4#163
3 Pt Jumpshots+4.9#20
Freethrows-1.4#277
Improvement-0.7#224
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 10.8% 11.6% 8.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.3 13.2 13.7
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 98.6% 100.0% 95.4%
Conference Champion 11.8% 16.0% 2.2%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round10.8% 11.6% 8.9%
Second Round0.8% 0.9% 0.6%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Sam Houston St. (Home) - 69.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 22 - 42 - 5
Quad 311 - 613 - 11
Quad 46 - 119 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2024 211   @ Abilene Christian W 79-56 59%     1 - 0 +22.9 +8.6 +13.9
  Nov 13, 2024 237   Evansville W 80-63 80%     2 - 0 +10.4 +2.8 +6.8
  Nov 16, 2024 156   Murray St. L 67-88 66%     2 - 1 -23.1 -3.8 -19.9
  Nov 21, 2024 172   Ohio W 83-81 OT 61%     3 - 1 +1.5 -3.2 +4.4
  Nov 22, 2024 176   South Florida W 95-88 62%     4 - 1 +6.1 +22.6 -16.5
  Nov 24, 2024 94   Bradley L 69-80 39%     4 - 2 -5.9 +4.0 -10.8
  Dec 01, 2024 104   @ UAB W 76-69 33%     5 - 2 +13.7 +2.4 +11.4
  Dec 07, 2024 140   @ Belmont L 79-82 44%     5 - 3 +0.7 +0.6 +0.2
  Dec 16, 2024 158   California Baptist W 75-64 67%     6 - 3 +8.7 +0.1 +8.4
  Dec 19, 2024 101   Lipscomb W 67-65 51%     7 - 3 +3.9 +0.1 +4.0
  Dec 23, 2024 5   @ Tennessee L 64-82 4%     7 - 4 +4.5 +4.9 -0.4
  Jan 02, 2025 268   @ Florida International W 73-69 70%     8 - 4 1 - 0 +1.0 -1.1 +1.9
  Jan 04, 2025 77   @ Liberty L 63-73 23%     8 - 5 1 - 1 -0.1 -0.3 -0.1
  Jan 09, 2025 131   Kennesaw St. W 84-79 62%     9 - 5 2 - 1 +4.1 +6.0 -2.3
  Jan 11, 2025 124   Jacksonville St. W 81-64 60%     10 - 5 3 - 1 +16.5 +7.0 +9.4
  Jan 18, 2025 135   Western Kentucky W 71-57 63%     11 - 5 4 - 1 +12.8 -0.2 +13.0
  Jan 23, 2025 160   @ Sam Houston St. W 77-75 48%     12 - 5 5 - 1 +4.7 +14.6 -9.7
  Jan 25, 2025 123   @ Louisiana Tech L 69-75 41%     12 - 6 5 - 2 -1.3 -0.9 -0.5
  Jan 30, 2025 146   New Mexico St. L 57-61 65%     12 - 7 5 - 3 -5.7 -8.6 +2.5
  Feb 01, 2025 139   UTEP W 71-68 64%     13 - 7 6 - 3 +1.6 +3.3 -1.4
  Feb 06, 2025 124   @ Jacksonville St. L 63-77 41%     13 - 8 6 - 4 -9.4 -4.0 -6.3
  Feb 08, 2025 131   @ Kennesaw St. W 76-75 42%     14 - 8 7 - 4 +5.2 +5.1 +0.0
  Feb 15, 2025 135   @ Western Kentucky W 87-77 44%     15 - 8 8 - 4 +13.9 +14.1 -0.7
  Feb 20, 2025 123   Louisiana Tech L 74-85 60%     15 - 9 8 - 5 -11.4 +1.3 -12.9
  Feb 22, 2025 160   Sam Houston St. W 76-71 69%    
  Feb 27, 2025 146   @ New Mexico St. L 68-69 44%    
  Mar 01, 2025 139   @ UTEP L 72-74 42%    
  Mar 06, 2025 77   Liberty L 67-70 42%    
  Mar 08, 2025 268   Florida International W 77-67 84%    
Projected Record 18 - 11 11 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference USA Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.3 6.3 5.2 11.8 1st
2nd 0.3 9.4 12.3 0.4 22.4 2nd
3rd 0.1 11.8 23.2 3.0 38.1 3rd
4th 1.8 12.2 1.2 15.2 4th
5th 0.1 4.2 3.0 0.0 7.3 5th
6th 0.6 3.3 0.2 4.0 6th
7th 0.7 0.5 1.3 7th
8th 0.1 0.1 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
Total 1.4 9.9 27.4 34.1 21.5 5.6 Total



Conference USA Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5 92.7% 5.2    1.9 2.7 0.6
12-6 29.1% 6.3    0.4 2.5 3.1 0.2
11-7 0.9% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 11.8% 11.8 2.3 5.2 3.8 0.3 0.1



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5 5.6% 16.8% 16.8% 12.4 0.0 0.6 0.4 0.0 4.7
12-6 21.5% 14.2% 14.2% 13.1 0.6 1.6 0.9 0.0 18.5
11-7 34.1% 11.4% 11.4% 13.4 0.3 1.8 1.7 0.2 30.2
10-8 27.4% 8.1% 8.1% 13.7 0.1 0.7 1.3 0.2 25.2
9-9 9.9% 6.3% 6.3% 13.8 0.2 0.4 0.1 9.3
8-10 1.4% 2.8% 2.8% 14.5 0.0 0.0 1.4
7-11
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 10.8% 10.8% 0.0% 13.3 0.0 1.4 4.6 4.2 0.5 89.2 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.9% 100.0% 12.4 1.1 58.5 37.2 3.2
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.8%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 1.7%
Lose Out 0.8%