UAB
American Athletic
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+4.1#104
Expected Predictive Rating+2.2#130
Pace71.7#82
Improvement+2.6#82

Offense
Total Offense+7.4#29
First Shot+3.8#78
After Offensive Rebound+3.7#16
Layup/Dunks+5.3#25
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.8#75
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.0#277
Freethrows-0.3#196
Improvement+4.2#21

Defense
Total Defense-3.3#271
First Shot-3.1#272
After Offensive Rebounds-0.2#209
Layups/Dunks-1.8#253
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.9#102
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.3#250
Freethrows-0.9#253
Improvement-1.6#281
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 9.3% 10.1% 7.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 12.7 12.6 13.0
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Conference Champion 9.4% 12.1% 2.1%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round9.3% 10.1% 7.4%
Second Round0.9% 0.9% 0.9%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Temple (Home) - 73.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 2
Quad 23 - 23 - 5
Quad 36 - 68 - 10
Quad 412 - 220 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 230   Vermont L 62-67 83%     0 - 1 -11.2 -3.6 -8.1
  Nov 07, 2024 280   Southern Miss W 98-84 89%     1 - 1 +4.9 +11.1 -8.0
  Nov 10, 2024 213   SE Louisiana W 82-72 81%     2 - 1 +4.8 +5.9 -1.3
  Nov 15, 2024 96   @ High Point L 65-68 37%     2 - 2 +4.6 -6.7 +11.2
  Nov 22, 2024 200   Longwood L 81-89 73%     2 - 3 -10.2 +3.4 -13.2
  Nov 23, 2024 127   Illinois St. L 83-84 59%     2 - 4 +0.8 +2.5 -1.7
  Nov 25, 2024 289   Louisiana W 98-86 85%     3 - 4 +5.0 +21.6 -16.8
  Dec 01, 2024 122   Middle Tennessee L 69-76 67%     3 - 5 -7.3 -2.8 -4.6
  Dec 06, 2024 356   Prairie View W 95-66 96%     4 - 5 +12.7 +10.7 +0.9
  Dec 15, 2024 97   Arkansas St. L 89-98 OT 56%     4 - 6 -6.5 -0.8 -3.8
  Dec 18, 2024 359   Alabama A&M W 96-67 97%     5 - 6 +11.8 +10.8 -0.7
  Dec 22, 2024 307   Alcorn St. W 91-74 91%     6 - 6 +6.0 +20.6 -13.3
  Dec 31, 2024 71   @ North Texas L 75-78 27%     6 - 7 0 - 1 +7.5 +17.2 -10.1
  Jan 04, 2025 246   Tulsa W 83-51 86%     7 - 7 1 - 1 +24.7 +5.8 +18.1
  Jan 07, 2025 144   Tulane W 81-69 71%     8 - 7 2 - 1 +10.5 +6.7 +3.6
  Jan 12, 2025 105   @ Florida Atlantic W 81-76 40%     9 - 7 3 - 1 +11.6 +9.8 +1.9
  Jan 15, 2025 176   @ South Florida W 92-83 60%     10 - 7 4 - 1 +10.6 +24.9 -13.9
  Jan 21, 2025 208   Texas San Antonio W 81-78 81%     11 - 7 5 - 1 -2.1 +7.6 -9.6
  Jan 26, 2025 47   @ Memphis L 77-100 18%     11 - 8 5 - 2 -9.3 +2.2 -8.7
  Jan 29, 2025 246   @ Tulsa W 78-68 73%     12 - 8 6 - 2 +7.8 +8.7 -0.5
  Feb 01, 2025 235   Charlotte W 96-78 84%     13 - 8 7 - 2 +11.5 +24.6 -12.1
  Feb 03, 2025 71   North Texas W 64-61 45%     14 - 8 8 - 2 +8.4 +2.5 +6.1
  Feb 11, 2025 150   @ East Carolina L 75-82 53%     14 - 9 8 - 3 -3.8 +10.4 -14.8
  Feb 16, 2025 176   South Florida W 85-78 77%     15 - 9 9 - 3 +3.5 +11.6 -8.1
  Feb 19, 2025 178   @ Rice W 90-89 60%     16 - 9 10 - 3 +2.6 +21.9 -19.2
  Feb 23, 2025 155   Temple W 87-81 73%    
  Feb 27, 2025 115   @ Wichita St. L 79-80 43%    
  Mar 02, 2025 47   Memphis L 81-85 36%    
  Mar 06, 2025 105   Florida Atlantic W 86-83 61%    
  Mar 09, 2025 144   @ Tulane W 80-79 50%    
Projected Record 19 - 11 13 - 5




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected American Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.6 4.3 4.6 9.4 1st
2nd 0.1 2.9 13.6 10.7 27.3 2nd
3rd 0.0 3.3 19.3 17.9 2.8 43.3 3rd
4th 0.5 8.2 6.6 0.6 15.9 4th
5th 1.5 2.2 0.1 3.9 5th
6th 0.2 0.2 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
13th 13th
Total 2.3 13.8 28.9 32.6 17.8 4.6 Total



American Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 100.0% 4.6    1.5 2.5 0.6
14-4 24.0% 4.3    0.4 2.2 1.6 0.1
13-5 1.8% 0.6    0.0 0.2 0.3 0.1
12-6 0.0%
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9
Total 9.4% 9.4 1.9 4.9 2.5 0.1



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 4.6% 15.8% 15.8% 11.9 0.2 0.5 0.1 0.0 3.8
14-4 17.8% 13.3% 13.3% 12.4 0.1 1.3 0.9 0.1 15.5
13-5 32.6% 11.0% 11.0% 12.8 0.0 1.2 1.9 0.4 0.0 29.0
12-6 28.9% 6.9% 6.9% 13.0 0.0 0.4 1.1 0.5 0.0 26.9
11-7 13.8% 4.2% 4.2% 13.3 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.0 13.2
10-8 2.3% 3.1% 3.1% 13.3 0.1 0.0 2.2
9-9
8-10
7-11
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 9.3% 9.3% 0.0% 12.7 0.3 3.4 4.3 1.3 0.1 90.7 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.7% 100.0% 11.9 22.2 66.7 9.7 1.4
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 1.4%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 1.2%
Lose Out 0.8%