Arkansas St.
Sun Belt
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+5.0#97
Expected Predictive Rating+3.3#118
Pace72.2#73
Improvement-0.8#226

Offense
Total Offense+1.4#128
First Shot-1.0#210
After Offensive Rebound+2.4#40
Layup/Dunks+0.2#175
2 Pt Jumpshots-3.6#351
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.9#148
Freethrows+1.5#90
Improvement+1.3#114

Defense
Total Defense+3.6#76
First Shot+5.2#42
After Offensive Rebounds-1.6#307
Layups/Dunks+3.0#73
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.3#230
3 Pt Jumpshots+4.9#19
Freethrows-2.3#328
Improvement-2.1#296
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 32.6% 33.0% 22.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 12.6 12.6 13.1
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Conference Champion 30.8% 31.8% 2.3%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round32.6% 33.0% 22.7%
Second Round4.0% 4.1% 1.2%
Sweet Sixteen0.6% 0.7% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Louisiana Monroe (Home) - 96.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 13 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b1 - 01 - 1
Quad 22 - 23 - 3
Quad 34 - 67 - 8
Quad 415 - 222 - 10


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 102   Akron W 80-75 OT 62%     1 - 0 +6.8 -5.4 +11.4
  Nov 08, 2024 6   @ Alabama L 79-88 7%     1 - 1 +13.0 -0.4 +15.0
  Nov 12, 2024 233   Arkansas Little Rock W 80-63 86%     2 - 1 +10.5 +11.7 -0.4
  Nov 16, 2024 249   Stephen F. Austin W 59-49 87%     3 - 1 +2.6 -8.6 +11.9
  Nov 29, 2024 203   Indiana St. W 86-81 75%     4 - 1 +2.8 +5.5 -3.0
  Nov 30, 2024 178   Rice L 67-75 72%     4 - 2 -8.9 -7.2 -1.9
  Dec 01, 2024 227   Hofstra L 66-68 79%     4 - 3 -5.6 -1.4 -4.2
  Dec 05, 2024 271   Jackson St. W 66-64 89%     5 - 3 -6.3 -12.7 +6.4
  Dec 08, 2024 47   @ Memphis W 85-72 21%     6 - 3 +26.7 +7.8 +17.1
  Dec 12, 2024 205   Texas Arlington W 83-79 82%     7 - 3 -0.9 +4.7 -5.7
  Dec 15, 2024 104   @ UAB W 98-89 OT 44%     8 - 3 +15.7 +1.9 +11.8
  Dec 21, 2024 312   Coastal Carolina W 97-67 93%     9 - 3 1 - 0 +18.4 +22.8 -2.8
  Jan 02, 2025 286   @ Old Dominion W 78-59 81%     10 - 3 2 - 0 +14.6 +5.9 +9.5
  Jan 04, 2025 138   @ James Madison L 62-67 55%     10 - 4 2 - 1 -1.2 -8.3 +6.9
  Jan 09, 2025 133   @ South Alabama L 62-76 53%     10 - 5 2 - 2 -9.9 +3.9 -16.2
  Jan 11, 2025 118   @ Troy W 84-78 49%     11 - 5 3 - 2 +11.3 +21.8 -10.1
  Jan 16, 2025 289   Louisiana W 83-63 91%     12 - 5 4 - 2 +10.4 +8.0 +2.7
  Jan 18, 2025 252   Georgia St. W 85-59 88%     13 - 5 5 - 2 +18.4 +3.7 +13.9
  Jan 23, 2025 141   Appalachian St. W 65-55 73%     14 - 5 6 - 2 +8.6 -0.1 +9.5
  Jan 25, 2025 202   Texas St. W 80-65 82%     15 - 5 7 - 2 +10.2 +3.5 +6.8
  Jan 29, 2025 280   @ Southern Miss W 81-68 80%     16 - 5 8 - 2 +8.9 +6.5 +2.1
  Feb 01, 2025 202   @ Texas St. W 85-74 67%     17 - 5 9 - 2 +11.3 +12.5 -0.9
  Feb 05, 2025 190   @ Marshall L 72-77 66%     17 - 6 9 - 3 -4.1 -1.3 -2.8
  Feb 08, 2025 137   @ Kent St. L 75-76 55%     17 - 7 +2.8 +6.0 -3.2
  Feb 12, 2025 280   Southern Miss W 101-67 90%     18 - 7 10 - 3 +24.9 +18.3 +3.9
  Feb 15, 2025 118   Troy L 70-71 68%     18 - 8 10 - 4 -0.8 -0.3 -0.6
  Feb 19, 2025 133   South Alabama L 56-60 72%     18 - 9 10 - 5 -5.0 -11.3 +6.0
  Feb 22, 2025 336   Louisiana Monroe W 81-62 97%    
  Feb 26, 2025 289   @ Louisiana W 76-67 80%    
  Feb 28, 2025 336   @ Louisiana Monroe W 79-65 90%    
Projected Record 21 - 9 13 - 5




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Sun Belt Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.7 30.1 30.8 1st
2nd 4.8 31.4 36.2 2nd
3rd 0.1 11.8 7.5 19.4 3rd
4th 1.0 9.1 10.1 4th
5th 0.0 1.8 1.6 3.4 5th
6th 0.0 0.0 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
13th 13th
14th 14th
Total 0.1 3.0 27.9 69.0 Total



Sun Belt Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5 43.6% 30.1    1.5 7.5 12.5 7.4 1.3
12-6 2.5% 0.7    0.0 0.2 0.2 0.3
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9
Total 30.8% 30.8 1.5 7.5 12.6 7.7 1.6



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5 69.0% 35.0% 35.0% 12.5 0.1 13.2 10.0 0.9 0.0 44.9
12-6 27.9% 28.3% 28.3% 13.0 1.9 4.5 1.4 0.1 20.0
11-7 3.0% 18.9% 18.9% 13.3 0.1 0.3 0.2 2.4
10-8 0.1% 0.1
9-9
8-10
7-11
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 32.6% 32.6% 0.0% 12.6 0.1 15.2 14.7 2.5 0.1 67.4 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 24.1% 100.0% 12.5 0.2 54.8 41.3 3.6 0.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 13.0%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 16.6%