Akron
Mid-American
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+4.3#102
Expected Predictive Rating+5.9#87
Pace77.7#13
Improvement+3.3#52

Offense
Total Offense+2.7#97
First Shot+2.3#112
After Offensive Rebound+0.4#156
Layup/Dunks+0.3#169
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.0#241
3 Pt Jumpshots+5.5#32
Freethrows-2.6#320
Improvement+1.1#123

Defense
Total Defense+1.6#129
First Shot+2.0#105
After Offensive Rebounds-0.5#225
Layups/Dunks-1.3#224
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.4#233
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.9#63
Freethrows+0.8#126
Improvement+2.1#73
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 40.4% 42.4% 37.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 12.9 12.7 13.1
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Conference Champion 99.5% 99.9% 98.8%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round40.4% 42.4% 37.7%
Second Round4.3% 4.9% 3.5%
Sweet Sixteen0.6% 0.6% 0.5%
Elite Eight0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Ohio (Away) - 56.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 14 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 1
Quad 20 - 20 - 3
Quad 36 - 36 - 6
Quad 418 - 024 - 7


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 97   @ Arkansas St. L 75-80 OT 38%     0 - 1 +2.5 -5.0 +8.4
  Nov 12, 2024 30   @ St. Mary's L 68-87 12%     0 - 2 -1.8 +4.6 -6.2
  Nov 22, 2024 194   Lamar W 79-72 80%     1 - 2 +2.6 +0.5 +1.6
  Nov 23, 2024 187   Nebraska Omaha W 92-84 79%     2 - 2 +3.9 +19.7 -15.4
  Nov 24, 2024 311   Alabama St. W 97-78 92%     3 - 2 +7.7 +13.7 -6.9
  Dec 03, 2024 241   Northern Kentucky W 86-73 85%     4 - 2 +6.0 +14.4 -7.8
  Dec 15, 2024 130   Wisconsin-Milwaukee L 81-100 60%     4 - 3 -17.3 -6.0 -8.0
  Dec 20, 2024 70   Yale L 58-74 36%     4 - 4 -7.9 -14.2 +6.7
  Dec 21, 2024 271   Jackson St. W 68-50 83%     5 - 4 +12.3 -7.8 +19.7
  Dec 30, 2024 162   @ Princeton L 75-76 57%     5 - 5 +1.5 -0.7 +2.2
  Jan 03, 2025 301   @ Bowling Green W 71-68 82%     6 - 5 1 - 0 -2.3 -7.6 +5.1
  Jan 07, 2025 215   Central Michigan W 87-71 82%     7 - 5 2 - 0 +10.7 +15.8 -4.2
  Jan 11, 2025 291   @ Eastern Michigan W 105-81 80%     8 - 5 3 - 0 +19.4 +20.1 -2.7
  Jan 14, 2025 221   Toledo W 85-78 83%     9 - 5 4 - 0 +1.2 +2.9 -1.9
  Jan 17, 2025 172   Ohio W 92-80 76%     10 - 5 5 - 0 +8.9 +10.0 -2.0
  Jan 21, 2025 352   @ Buffalo W 90-58 91%     11 - 5 6 - 0 +21.4 +5.3 +13.1
  Jan 25, 2025 171   Miami (OH) W 102-75 76%     12 - 5 7 - 0 +24.0 +19.4 +2.6
  Jan 28, 2025 341   @ Northern Illinois W 80-70 89%     13 - 5 8 - 0 +0.7 -1.4 +1.3
  Jan 31, 2025 137   @ Kent St. W 85-71 52%     14 - 5 9 - 0 +17.8 +12.3 +5.0
  Feb 04, 2025 261   Ball St. W 81-73 87%     15 - 5 10 - 0 +0.0 +6.6 -6.1
  Feb 08, 2025 133   South Alabama W 80-67 70%     16 - 5 +12.0 +10.8 +1.5
  Feb 11, 2025 302   Western Michigan W 105-92 91%     17 - 5 11 - 0 +2.6 +18.4 -16.9
  Feb 15, 2025 215   @ Central Michigan W 85-82 67%     18 - 5 12 - 0 +2.8 +1.4 +1.0
  Feb 18, 2025 341   Northern Illinois W 73-63 95%     19 - 5 13 - 0 -4.4 -5.2 +0.8
  Feb 22, 2025 172   @ Ohio W 83-81 56%    
  Feb 25, 2025 261   @ Ball St. W 82-75 73%    
  Feb 28, 2025 137   Kent St. W 77-71 72%    
  Mar 04, 2025 221   @ Toledo W 86-81 66%    
  Mar 07, 2025 352   Buffalo W 90-70 97%    
Projected Record 23 - 6 17 - 1




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mid-American Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 1.3 10.2 29.4 37.8 20.7 99.5 1st
2nd 0.1 0.5 0.6 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
Total 0.1 1.8 10.2 29.4 37.8 20.7 Total



Mid-American Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 20.7    20.7
17-1 100.0% 37.8    37.8
16-2 100.0% 29.4    29.4
15-3 100.0% 10.2    8.0 2.3
14-4 72.0% 1.3    0.5 0.7
13-5 25.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9
Total 99.5% 99.5 96.4 3.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 20.7% 47.7% 47.7% 12.3 0.5 5.8 3.3 0.2 10.8
17-1 37.8% 41.6% 41.6% 12.9 0.1 3.8 9.1 2.8 0.0 22.1
16-2 29.4% 36.8% 36.8% 13.2 1.5 6.1 3.2 0.2 18.6
15-3 10.2% 33.0% 33.0% 13.4 0.3 1.6 1.4 0.1 6.9
14-4 1.8% 32.0% 32.0% 13.9 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.1 1.2
13-5 0.1% 0.0 0.1
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9
8-10
7-11
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 40.4% 40.4% 0.0% 12.9 0.5 11.4 20.2 7.9 0.4 59.6 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 9.9% 100.0% 12.3 4.7 59.3 33.8 2.2
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 3.2%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 4.8%