Akron
Mid-American
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+1.5#139
Expected Predictive Rating-3.7#238
Pace71.5#108
Improvement-0.6#258

Offense
Total Offense-0.6#191
First Shot+4.6#62
After Offensive Rebound-5.1#359
Layup/Dunks-1.4#232
2 Pt Jumpshots-3.9#352
3 Pt Jumpshots+14.7#2
Freethrows-4.9#344
Improvement-0.3#217

Defense
Total Defense+2.1#111
First Shot+6.4#28
After Offensive Rebounds-4.4#345
Layups/Dunks-9.5#362
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.3#101
3 Pt Jumpshots+6.5#27
Freethrows+8.2#2
Improvement-0.3#231
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 19.4% 20.6% 12.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.4 13.4 14.1
.500 or above 79.4% 83.0% 58.0%
.500 or above in Conference 86.1% 87.7% 76.4%
Conference Champion 24.2% 25.9% 14.4%
Last Place in Conference 0.9% 0.7% 2.0%
First Four0.5% 0.4% 0.9%
First Round19.2% 20.4% 12.0%
Second Round2.5% 2.8% 1.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.6% 0.7% 0.2%
Elite Eight0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Lamar (Home) - 85.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 21 - 21 - 4
Quad 34 - 45 - 8
Quad 413 - 317 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 112   @ Arkansas St. L 75-80 OT 30%     0 - 1 +1.9 -5.5 +8.3
  Nov 12, 2024 44   @ St. Mary's L 68-87 13%     0 - 2 -5.1 -0.6 -4.3
  Nov 22, 2024 290   Lamar W 79-68 86%    
  Nov 23, 2024 262   Nebraska Omaha W 78-68 82%    
  Nov 24, 2024 282   Alabama St. W 75-64 84%    
  Dec 03, 2024 201   Northern Kentucky W 73-66 73%    
  Dec 15, 2024 210   Wisconsin-Milwaukee W 78-74 64%    
  Dec 20, 2024 108   Yale L 70-73 41%    
  Dec 30, 2024 110   @ Princeton L 69-75 31%    
  Jan 03, 2025 264   @ Bowling Green W 75-71 63%    
  Jan 07, 2025 202   Central Michigan W 72-65 72%    
  Jan 11, 2025 301   @ Eastern Michigan W 71-65 70%    
  Jan 14, 2025 138   Toledo W 78-75 60%    
  Jan 18, 2025 156   Ohio W 77-73 65%    
  Jan 21, 2025 330   @ Buffalo W 79-71 77%    
  Jan 25, 2025 228   Miami (OH) W 76-68 75%    
  Jan 28, 2025 293   @ Northern Illinois W 74-69 68%    
  Feb 01, 2025 123   @ Kent St. L 68-72 36%    
  Feb 04, 2025 246   Ball St. W 77-68 77%    
  Feb 11, 2025 319   Western Michigan W 79-66 87%    
  Feb 15, 2025 202   @ Central Michigan W 69-68 52%    
  Feb 18, 2025 293   Northern Illinois W 77-66 83%    
  Feb 22, 2025 156   @ Ohio L 74-76 45%    
  Feb 25, 2025 246   @ Ball St. W 74-71 60%    
  Mar 01, 2025 123   Kent St. W 71-69 56%    
  Mar 04, 2025 138   @ Toledo L 75-78 40%    
  Mar 07, 2025 330   Buffalo W 82-68 89%    
Projected Record 16 - 11 12 - 6




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mid-American Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.5 2.2 5.5 6.9 5.5 2.7 0.8 24.2 1st
2nd 0.0 0.7 3.5 6.4 5.2 1.9 0.3 18.0 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.5 3.5 6.1 3.8 0.7 0.1 14.8 3rd
4th 0.0 0.4 2.7 5.3 2.8 0.5 0.0 11.7 4th
5th 0.0 0.2 2.0 4.4 2.4 0.3 0.0 9.2 5th
6th 0.1 1.2 3.4 2.2 0.3 0.0 7.2 6th
7th 0.0 0.7 2.5 1.8 0.3 5.4 7th
8th 0.0 0.4 1.7 1.5 0.3 0.0 3.9 8th
9th 0.0 0.3 1.0 1.2 0.3 0.0 2.7 9th
10th 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.7 0.2 0.0 1.8 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.8 11th
12th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.4 12th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 1.3 2.3 3.9 5.6 7.9 10.2 12.2 13.2 12.9 11.4 8.9 5.8 2.7 0.8 Total



Mid-American Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.8    0.8
17-1 100.0% 2.7    2.7 0.1
16-2 95.1% 5.5    4.9 0.7 0.0
15-3 77.9% 6.9    4.7 2.1 0.2
14-4 47.9% 5.5    2.4 2.4 0.7 0.1
13-5 17.4% 2.2    0.6 1.0 0.5 0.1 0.0
12-6 3.7% 0.5    0.0 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 24.2% 24.2 16.0 6.3 1.5 0.3 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.8% 67.1% 65.5% 1.5% 10.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.3 4.5%
17-1 2.7% 53.5% 53.4% 0.1% 11.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.8 0.3 0.0 0.0 1.3 0.2%
16-2 5.8% 43.3% 43.3% 12.5 0.1 1.2 1.0 0.2 3.3
15-3 8.9% 36.2% 36.2% 13.0 0.0 0.9 1.5 0.7 0.1 0.0 5.7
14-4 11.4% 29.2% 29.2% 13.4 0.0 0.5 1.4 1.1 0.3 0.0 8.1
13-5 12.9% 22.3% 22.3% 13.8 0.1 0.9 1.2 0.6 0.1 10.0
12-6 13.2% 17.0% 17.0% 14.3 0.0 0.4 0.9 0.8 0.2 11.0
11-7 12.2% 12.9% 12.9% 14.6 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.7 0.2 10.6
10-8 10.2% 8.6% 8.6% 15.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.2 9.3
9-9 7.9% 6.6% 6.6% 15.5 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 7.3
8-10 5.6% 4.0% 4.0% 15.8 0.1 0.2 5.4
7-11 3.9% 0.8% 0.8% 16.0 0.0 3.9
6-12 2.3% 2.3
5-13 1.3% 1.3
4-14 0.6% 0.6
3-15 0.3% 0.3
2-16 0.1% 0.1
1-17 0.0% 0.0
0-18
Total 100% 19.4% 19.4% 0.0% 13.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.6 3.7 5.7 4.8 3.1 1.1 80.6 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.2% 100.0% 7.3 1.6 14.8 11.5 19.7 11.5 3.3 9.8 11.5 13.1 3.3