Akron
Mid-American
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-0.3#163
Expected Predictive Rating-0.6#177
Pace75.8#34
Improvement-2.7#323

Offense
Total Offense+0.6#150
First Shot+1.3#136
After Offensive Rebound-0.7#225
Layup/Dunks+0.3#169
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.9#290
3 Pt Jumpshots+5.8#28
Freethrows-2.9#333
Improvement-2.5#337

Defense
Total Defense-1.0#199
First Shot+0.6#155
After Offensive Rebounds-1.6#298
Layups/Dunks-2.4#272
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.1#196
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.6#116
Freethrows+1.3#95
Improvement-0.2#195
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 15.1% 16.3% 11.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.2 14.1 14.6
.500 or above 81.6% 86.1% 67.4%
.500 or above in Conference 87.7% 89.3% 82.4%
Conference Champion 19.6% 21.5% 13.8%
Last Place in Conference 0.6% 0.4% 1.0%
First Four0.5% 0.3% 0.8%
First Round14.8% 16.1% 10.8%
Second Round1.0% 1.1% 0.6%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.2% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Jackson St. (Neutral) - 75.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 20 - 30 - 4
Quad 33 - 53 - 9
Quad 414 - 418 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 109   @ Arkansas St. L 75-80 OT 25%     0 - 1 +1.8 -5.1 +7.7
  Nov 12, 2024 43   @ St. Mary's L 68-87 10%     0 - 2 -5.2 +1.6 -6.6
  Nov 22, 2024 175   Lamar W 79-72 64%     1 - 2 +3.1 +0.4 +2.2
  Nov 23, 2024 298   Nebraska Omaha W 92-84 82%     2 - 2 -2.2 +19.6 -21.3
  Nov 24, 2024 297   Alabama St. W 97-78 82%     3 - 2 +8.8 +13.1 -5.2
  Dec 03, 2024 214   Northern Kentucky W 86-73 69%     4 - 2 +7.5 +15.8 -7.9
  Dec 15, 2024 137   Wisconsin-Milwaukee L 81-100 44%     4 - 3 -17.8 -7.3 -7.2
  Dec 20, 2024 100   Yale L 58-74 29%     4 - 4 -10.7 -14.7 +4.3
  Dec 21, 2024 303   Jackson St. W 78-71 76%    
  Dec 30, 2024 117   @ Princeton L 75-81 28%    
  Jan 03, 2025 267   @ Bowling Green W 81-79 59%    
  Jan 07, 2025 225   Central Michigan W 79-73 71%    
  Jan 11, 2025 317   @ Eastern Michigan W 79-74 69%    
  Jan 14, 2025 211   Toledo W 86-81 68%    
  Jan 17, 2025 149   Ohio W 82-80 58%    
  Jan 21, 2025 330   @ Buffalo W 82-75 73%    
  Jan 25, 2025 209   Miami (OH) W 78-73 67%    
  Jan 28, 2025 346   @ Northern Illinois W 81-72 79%    
  Jan 31, 2025 113   @ Kent St. L 67-74 27%    
  Feb 04, 2025 288   Ball St. W 80-71 81%    
  Feb 11, 2025 296   Western Michigan W 82-72 81%    
  Feb 15, 2025 225   @ Central Michigan L 75-76 50%    
  Feb 18, 2025 346   Northern Illinois W 84-69 90%    
  Feb 22, 2025 149   @ Ohio L 79-83 38%    
  Feb 25, 2025 288   @ Ball St. W 77-74 62%    
  Mar 01, 2025 113   Kent St. L 70-71 47%    
  Mar 04, 2025 211   @ Toledo L 83-84 47%    
  Mar 07, 2025 330   Buffalo W 85-72 87%    
Projected Record 17 - 11 12 - 6




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mid-American Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.5 2.5 5.5 5.7 3.9 1.3 0.3 19.6 1st
2nd 0.0 0.7 4.2 7.4 5.1 1.5 0.1 19.1 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.6 4.3 6.8 3.7 0.5 0.0 16.0 3rd
4th 0.0 0.4 3.5 6.0 2.8 0.3 0.0 13.1 4th
5th 0.2 2.4 5.1 2.7 0.3 10.6 5th
6th 0.1 1.2 3.6 2.5 0.3 0.0 7.7 6th
7th 0.0 0.7 2.6 2.1 0.4 0.0 5.8 7th
8th 0.0 0.3 1.5 1.5 0.4 0.0 3.7 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.8 1.0 0.3 0.0 2.2 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.6 0.2 0.0 1.3 10th
11th 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.6 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 12th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.8 3.5 5.8 9.0 12.2 14.1 14.6 14.0 11.1 7.2 4.0 1.3 0.3 Total



Mid-American Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.3    0.3
17-1 100.0% 1.3    1.3 0.0
16-2 97.0% 3.9    3.4 0.5 0.0
15-3 78.8% 5.7    3.9 1.7 0.1 0.0
14-4 49.9% 5.5    2.4 2.5 0.6 0.0
13-5 18.0% 2.5    0.6 1.1 0.7 0.2 0.0
12-6 3.1% 0.5    0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0
11-7 0.4% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 19.6% 19.6 11.9 5.8 1.6 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.3% 52.4% 52.4% 11.9 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1
17-1 1.3% 44.9% 44.9% 12.6 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.7
16-2 4.0% 34.4% 34.4% 13.1 0.0 0.3 0.7 0.4 0.0 2.6
15-3 7.2% 29.4% 29.4% 13.4 0.2 0.9 0.9 0.1 5.1
14-4 11.1% 24.2% 24.2% 13.8 0.0 0.8 1.4 0.5 0.0 8.4
13-5 14.0% 19.2% 19.2% 14.3 0.0 0.3 1.3 1.0 0.1 11.3
12-6 14.6% 14.5% 14.5% 14.7 0.1 0.7 1.1 0.2 12.4
11-7 14.1% 10.7% 10.7% 14.9 0.0 0.3 0.9 0.3 12.6
10-8 12.2% 8.4% 8.4% 15.3 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.4 11.2
9-9 9.0% 6.7% 6.7% 15.5 0.0 0.3 0.3 8.4
8-10 5.8% 3.6% 3.6% 15.9 0.0 0.2 5.5
7-11 3.5% 0.9% 0.9% 16.0 0.0 3.4
6-12 1.8% 1.8
5-13 0.8% 0.8
4-14 0.3% 0.3
3-15 0.1% 0.1
2-16 0.0% 0.0
1-17 0.0% 0.0
0-18
Total 100% 15.1% 15.1% 0.0% 14.2 0.1 0.9 3.0 5.2 4.4 1.5 84.9 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 11.7 30.8 69.2