Western Michigan
Mid-American
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-7.4#302
Expected Predictive Rating-9.9#317
Pace70.3#150
Improvement+1.8#66

Offense
Total Offense-3.7#271
First Shot-6.7#338
After Offensive Rebound+3.0#48
Layup/Dunks-0.4#194
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.0#159
3 Pt Jumpshots-6.6#341
Freethrows+0.3#167
Improvement+1.7#54

Defense
Total Defense-3.7#294
First Shot-3.9#296
After Offensive Rebounds+0.2#172
Layups/Dunks-5.0#328
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.8#63
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.1#182
Freethrows-0.8#250
Improvement+0.1#167
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 1.4% 2.7% 1.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.6 14.9 15.6
.500 or above 7.6% 23.0% 7.3%
.500 or above in Conference 27.3% 41.6% 27.0%
Conference Champion 0.9% 2.1% 0.9%
Last Place in Conference 15.7% 6.6% 15.9%
First Four0.7% 0.3% 0.7%
First Round1.0% 2.5% 1.0%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Dayton (Away) - 1.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 3
Quad 20 - 20 - 5
Quad 32 - 62 - 11
Quad 48 - 910 - 20


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 286   @ Coastal Carolina L 56-60 35%     0 - 1 -7.5 -11.5 +3.6
  Nov 11, 2024 56   @ Butler L 65-85 4%     0 - 2 -7.4 -2.5 -4.9
  Nov 15, 2024 272   SIU Edwardsville L 60-79 57%     0 - 3 -28.1 -12.8 -16.1
  Nov 17, 2024 346   Canisius W 92-69 77%     1 - 3 +7.7 +11.4 -3.3
  Nov 20, 2024 243   South Dakota L 76-80 51%     1 - 4 -11.5 -6.8 -4.6
  Nov 27, 2024 247   @ Youngstown St. W 73-62 30%     2 - 4 +9.2 +5.7 +4.0
  Dec 03, 2024 39   @ Dayton L 63-85 2%    
  Dec 13, 2024 156   @ St. Thomas L 68-79 16%    
  Dec 15, 2024 204   @ North Dakota St. L 68-77 22%    
  Dec 20, 2024 246   Valparaiso W 75-74 52%    
  Dec 30, 2024 32   @ Michigan St. L 59-82 2%    
  Jan 04, 2025 209   Toledo L 77-79 41%    
  Jan 07, 2025 265   Bowling Green W 74-73 55%    
  Jan 11, 2025 197   @ Miami (OH) L 68-77 21%    
  Jan 14, 2025 112   @ Kent St. L 59-73 11%    
  Jan 18, 2025 330   Buffalo W 77-72 68%    
  Jan 21, 2025 337   Northern Illinois W 75-69 72%    
  Jan 25, 2025 194   @ Central Michigan L 67-76 21%    
  Jan 28, 2025 268   @ Ball St. L 68-72 34%    
  Feb 01, 2025 297   Eastern Michigan W 73-70 60%    
  Feb 04, 2025 154   @ Ohio L 71-82 17%    
  Feb 11, 2025 142   @ Akron L 70-82 15%    
  Feb 15, 2025 197   Miami (OH) L 71-74 40%    
  Feb 18, 2025 330   @ Buffalo L 74-75 48%    
  Feb 22, 2025 194   Central Michigan L 70-73 40%    
  Feb 25, 2025 154   Ohio L 74-79 35%    
  Mar 01, 2025 337   @ Northern Illinois W 73-72 50%    
  Mar 04, 2025 112   Kent St. L 62-70 25%    
  Mar 07, 2025 265   @ Bowling Green L 71-76 35%    
Projected Record 10 - 19 7 - 11




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mid-American Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.9 1st
2nd 0.0 0.3 0.7 0.7 0.3 0.0 2.0 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.4 1.4 1.3 0.3 0.0 3.5 3rd
4th 0.0 0.4 2.0 2.0 0.6 0.0 0.0 5.0 4th
5th 0.3 2.4 3.1 1.0 0.1 6.7 5th
6th 0.3 2.2 4.1 1.7 0.1 8.3 6th
7th 0.2 2.4 5.4 2.8 0.3 0.0 11.1 7th
8th 0.0 0.2 2.2 5.7 3.7 0.5 0.0 12.3 8th
9th 0.0 0.3 2.5 6.2 4.6 0.8 0.0 14.3 9th
10th 0.0 0.4 2.6 5.7 4.8 1.0 0.0 14.4 10th
11th 0.0 0.5 2.5 5.0 3.5 0.9 0.0 12.4 11th
12th 0.2 1.1 2.3 3.1 1.8 0.5 0.0 9.1 12th
Total 0.2 1.2 2.9 5.9 9.6 12.3 14.3 13.9 12.3 10.2 7.5 4.7 2.8 1.2 0.6 0.2 0.1 Total



Mid-American Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2 100.0% 0.1    0.1 0.0
15-3 80.4% 0.1    0.1 0.0
14-4 54.4% 0.3    0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
13-5 17.4% 0.2    0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
12-6 3.3% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0% 0.0    0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.9% 0.9 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2 0.1% 13.2% 13.2% 14.0 0.0 0.1
15-3 0.2% 18.5% 18.5% 13.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2
14-4 0.6% 21.3% 21.3% 14.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.5
13-5 1.2% 7.5% 7.5% 15.2 0.0 0.1 0.0 1.1
12-6 2.8% 6.2% 6.2% 15.4 0.0 0.1 0.1 2.6
11-7 4.7% 4.4% 4.4% 15.6 0.0 0.1 0.1 4.5
10-8 7.5% 3.7% 3.7% 15.9 0.0 0.2 7.2
9-9 10.2% 2.5% 2.5% 15.9 0.0 0.2 10.0
8-10 12.3% 0.8% 0.8% 16.0 0.1 12.2
7-11 13.9% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.1 13.8
6-12 14.3% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 14.3
5-13 12.3% 12.3
4-14 9.6% 9.6
3-15 5.9% 5.9
2-16 2.9% 2.9
1-17 1.2% 1.2
0-18 0.2% 0.2
Total 100% 1.4% 1.4% 0.0% 15.6 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.9 98.6 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.1%