Western Michigan
Mid-American
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-7.9#302
Expected Predictive Rating-8.6#305
Pace69.6#133
Improvement+1.2#133

Offense
Total Offense-4.0#281
First Shot-6.0#330
After Offensive Rebound+2.1#62
Layup/Dunks+1.4#135
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.3#101
3 Pt Jumpshots-6.5#349
Freethrows-2.1#306
Improvement+0.7#145

Defense
Total Defense-3.9#293
First Shot-4.7#317
After Offensive Rebounds+0.7#116
Layups/Dunks-3.5#303
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.1#91
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.2#303
Freethrows+0.9#114
Improvement+0.5#159
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.8% 1.1% 0.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
.500 or above in Conference 31.1% 54.3% 15.0%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.8% 1.1% 0.6%
First Round0.4% 0.6% 0.3%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Central Michigan (Home) - 40.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 40 - 6
Quad 33 - 43 - 10
Quad 47 - 1010 - 21


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 312   @ Coastal Carolina L 56-60 44%     0 - 1 -10.5 -14.7 +3.8
  Nov 11, 2024 66   @ Butler L 65-85 5%     0 - 2 -9.1 -4.7 -4.3
  Nov 15, 2024 234   SIU Edwardsville L 60-79 45%     0 - 3 -25.5 -11.5 -14.8
  Nov 17, 2024 354   Canisius W 92-69 78%     1 - 3 +6.9 +10.1 -2.8
  Nov 20, 2024 243   South Dakota L 76-80 47%     1 - 4 -11.0 -7.1 -3.8
  Nov 27, 2024 186   @ Youngstown St. W 73-62 20%     2 - 4 +12.0 +5.3 +7.2
  Dec 03, 2024 83   @ Dayton L 69-77 6%     2 - 5 +1.3 +10.5 -10.6
  Dec 13, 2024 126   @ St. Thomas L 71-77 13%     2 - 6 -1.7 +1.2 -3.3
  Dec 15, 2024 136   @ North Dakota St. L 62-98 14%     2 - 7 -32.1 -11.4 -22.3
  Dec 20, 2024 238   Valparaiso L 73-76 45%     2 - 8 -9.7 -4.7 -5.1
  Dec 30, 2024 12   @ Michigan St. L 62-80 1%     2 - 9 +2.8 -2.1 +5.6
  Jan 04, 2025 221   Toledo L 70-76 42%     2 - 10 0 - 1 -11.8 -13.2 +1.8
  Jan 07, 2025 301   Bowling Green L 79-83 60%     2 - 11 0 - 2 -14.4 +2.6 -17.1
  Jan 11, 2025 171   @ Miami (OH) L 71-91 17%     2 - 12 0 - 3 -17.9 -4.4 -12.7
  Jan 14, 2025 137   @ Kent St. W 94-83 14%     3 - 12 1 - 3 +14.8 +19.6 -5.3
  Jan 18, 2025 352   Buffalo L 76-85 77%     3 - 13 1 - 4 -24.7 -13.1 -10.4
  Jan 21, 2025 341   Northern Illinois W 72-70 73%     4 - 13 2 - 4 -12.4 -3.3 -9.0
  Jan 25, 2025 215   @ Central Michigan L 52-73 23%     4 - 14 2 - 5 -21.2 -17.5 -5.2
  Jan 28, 2025 261   @ Ball St. W 74-71 31%     5 - 14 3 - 5 +0.1 +4.1 -3.7
  Feb 01, 2025 291   Eastern Michigan W 61-54 57%     6 - 14 4 - 5 -2.6 -11.5 +9.5
  Feb 04, 2025 172   @ Ohio L 69-94 18%     6 - 15 4 - 6 -23.0 -5.5 -16.8
  Feb 08, 2025 248   Georgia Southern L 57-83 48%     6 - 16 -33.4 -20.3 -12.8
  Feb 11, 2025 102   @ Akron L 92-105 9%     6 - 17 4 - 7 -6.1 +14.6 -19.7
  Feb 15, 2025 171   Miami (OH) W 78-70 32%     7 - 17 5 - 7 +5.0 -1.3 +5.8
  Feb 18, 2025 352   @ Buffalo W 97-64 60%     8 - 17 6 - 7 +22.4 +19.4 +2.5
  Feb 22, 2025 215   Central Michigan L 72-75 41%    
  Feb 25, 2025 172   Ohio L 75-80 34%    
  Mar 01, 2025 341   @ Northern Illinois W 73-72 54%    
  Mar 04, 2025 137   Kent St. L 67-74 27%    
  Mar 07, 2025 301   @ Bowling Green L 73-76 39%    
Projected Record 10 - 20 8 - 10




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mid-American Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 0.4 0.7 1.1 3rd
4th 0.3 3.5 0.3 4.1 4th
5th 0.0 5.3 3.6 8.9 5th
6th 0.1 8.4 13.5 0.6 22.6 6th
7th 2.4 17.2 2.8 0.0 22.4 7th
8th 0.2 12.6 6.2 0.1 19.0 8th
9th 2.5 11.3 0.2 14.0 9th
10th 6.6 1.3 7.9 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 11th
12th 12th
Total 9.3 27.7 32.0 21.9 8.1 1.0 Total



Mid-American Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7 1.0% 2.0% 2.0% 16.0 0.0 1.0
10-8 8.1% 1.0% 1.0% 16.0 0.1 8.0
9-9 21.9% 1.4% 1.4% 16.0 0.3 21.6
8-10 32.0% 1.1% 1.1% 16.0 0.3 31.7
7-11 27.7% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 27.6
6-12 9.3% 9.3
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 0.8% 0.8% 0.0% 16.0 0.8 99.2 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.2%
Lose Out 9.3%