SIU Edwardsville
Ohio Valley
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-6.5#280
Expected Predictive Rating-4.9#252
Pace66.8#238
Improvement-2.1#299

Offense
Total Offense-5.3#322
First Shot-5.8#334
After Offensive Rebound+0.5#150
Layup/Dunks-2.9#287
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.0#165
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.6#123
Freethrows-4.6#360
Improvement-0.3#198

Defense
Total Defense-1.2#205
First Shot-1.9#243
After Offensive Rebounds+0.7#113
Layups/Dunks+1.0#133
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.2#75
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.1#304
Freethrows-1.0#259
Improvement-1.8#311
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 12.3% 14.1% 7.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.7 15.7 15.9
.500 or above 61.1% 67.6% 42.6%
.500 or above in Conference 65.5% 72.3% 46.3%
Conference Champion 11.3% 13.5% 5.0%
Last Place in Conference 6.0% 3.4% 13.2%
First Four6.2% 6.8% 4.5%
First Round9.1% 10.5% 5.0%
Second Round0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Western Illinois (Home) - 73.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 00 - 2
Quad 31 - 21 - 4
Quad 414 - 1115 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2024 53   @ Indiana L 61-80 5%     0 - 1 -6.0 -7.7 +2.4
  Nov 08, 2024 21   @ Illinois L 58-90 2%     0 - 2 -13.8 -4.2 -10.4
  Nov 12, 2024 160   @ Indiana St. W 77-72 19%     1 - 2 +8.0 +2.0 +6.0
  Nov 15, 2024 294   @ Western Michigan W 79-60 41%     2 - 2 +14.8 +6.5 +9.1
  Nov 16, 2024 354   Canisius W 76-58 73%     3 - 2 +5.2 -1.8 +7.8
  Nov 19, 2024 330   @ Green Bay L 57-82 52%     3 - 3 -31.9 -22.0 -9.5
  Nov 29, 2024 205   North Florida L 73-78 45%     3 - 4 -10.2 -7.9 -2.2
  Dec 08, 2024 251   Ball St. W 82-69 55%     4 - 4 +5.2 +10.8 -4.7
  Dec 19, 2024 247   @ Arkansas Little Rock L 56-60 32%     4 - 5 0 - 1 -5.5 -11.7 +6.0
  Dec 21, 2024 269   @ Southeast Missouri St. L 64-80 37%     4 - 6 0 - 2 -18.9 -6.5 -12.9
  Jan 02, 2025 331   Western Illinois W 69-62 74%    
  Jan 04, 2025 347   Lindenwood W 72-64 78%    
  Jan 07, 2025 325   @ Eastern Illinois L 66-67 49%    
  Jan 11, 2025 328   Tennessee Tech W 72-66 72%    
  Jan 16, 2025 323   @ Tennessee St. L 72-73 49%    
  Jan 18, 2025 286   @ Tennessee Martin L 67-70 40%    
  Jan 23, 2025 326   Southern Indiana W 71-65 70%    
  Jan 25, 2025 278   Morehead St. W 68-65 61%    
  Jan 30, 2025 347   @ Lindenwood W 69-67 59%    
  Feb 01, 2025 331   @ Western Illinois W 66-65 52%    
  Feb 04, 2025 325   Eastern Illinois W 70-64 70%    
  Feb 06, 2025 328   @ Tennessee Tech W 70-69 51%    
  Feb 13, 2025 286   Tennessee Martin W 70-67 62%    
  Feb 15, 2025 323   Tennessee St. W 75-69 70%    
  Feb 20, 2025 278   @ Morehead St. L 65-68 40%    
  Feb 22, 2025 326   @ Southern Indiana L 68-69 50%    
  Feb 27, 2025 269   Southeast Missouri St. W 70-68 59%    
  Mar 01, 2025 247   Arkansas Little Rock W 66-65 54%    
Projected Record 15 - 13 11 - 9




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Ohio Valley Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.3 1.5 3.0 3.6 1.9 0.8 0.1 11.3 1st
2nd 0.4 2.7 4.7 3.6 1.2 0.3 0.0 12.9 2nd
3rd 0.2 2.9 5.7 3.2 0.8 0.1 0.0 12.9 3rd
4th 0.1 2.1 5.8 3.5 0.6 0.0 12.1 4th
5th 0.0 1.3 5.5 4.1 0.6 0.0 11.6 5th
6th 0.0 0.5 4.4 4.3 0.8 0.0 10.1 6th
7th 0.0 0.3 2.7 4.4 1.0 0.0 8.5 7th
8th 0.3 1.7 3.5 1.4 0.1 6.9 8th
9th 0.0 0.2 1.3 2.9 1.6 0.1 6.1 9th
10th 0.0 0.2 1.0 1.8 1.4 0.2 4.5 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.8 1.0 0.6 0.2 3.2 11th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.0 2.2 4.0 6.4 8.6 11.7 13.1 14.0 12.9 10.1 7.5 4.9 2.1 0.9 0.1 Total



Ohio Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2 100.0% 0.1    0.1 0.0
17-3 98.1% 0.8    0.8 0.0
16-4 87.6% 1.9    1.5 0.3 0.0
15-5 73.5% 3.6    2.4 1.0 0.1
14-6 40.6% 3.0    1.4 1.2 0.5 0.0
13-7 15.3% 1.5    0.2 0.7 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0
12-8 2.3% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
11-9 0.0% 0.0    0.0
10-10 0.0%
Total 11.3% 11.3 6.5 3.3 1.1 0.3 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2 0.1% 31.8% 31.8% 13.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
17-3 0.9% 44.1% 44.1% 14.4 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.5
16-4 2.1% 38.5% 38.5% 15.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.2 1.3
15-5 4.9% 37.2% 37.2% 15.5 0.1 0.8 0.9 3.0
14-6 7.5% 34.4% 34.4% 15.8 0.0 0.5 2.1 4.9
13-7 10.1% 23.0% 23.0% 15.9 0.0 0.1 2.2 7.8
12-8 12.9% 15.6% 15.6% 16.0 0.1 1.9 10.9
11-9 14.0% 7.9% 7.9% 16.0 0.0 1.1 12.9
10-10 13.1% 5.6% 5.6% 16.0 0.0 0.7 12.3
9-11 11.7% 3.3% 3.3% 16.0 0.4 11.3
8-12 8.6% 1.2% 1.2% 16.0 0.1 8.5
7-13 6.4% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 6.4
6-14 4.0% 4.0
5-15 2.2% 2.2
4-16 1.0% 1.0
3-17 0.5% 0.5
2-18 0.1% 0.1
1-19 0.0% 0.0
0-20 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 12.3% 12.3% 0.0% 15.7 0.0 0.1 0.5 2.1 9.6 87.7 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.0% 100.0% 13.5 4.8 38.1 57.1
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.0%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.0%