SIU Edwardsville
Ohio Valley
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-5.6#259
Expected Predictive Rating-3.5#224
Pace65.5#255
Improvement+0.9#143

Offense
Total Offense-4.6#298
First Shot-5.5#324
After Offensive Rebound+0.9#130
Layup/Dunks-2.4#274
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.1#168
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.2#134
Freethrows-4.4#360
Improvement+1.8#82

Defense
Total Defense-1.0#204
First Shot-1.2#215
After Offensive Rebounds+0.2#165
Layups/Dunks+1.7#108
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.7#127
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.1#299
Freethrows-0.6#225
Improvement-0.9#237
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 17.4% 19.8% 13.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.8 15.8 15.9
.500 or above 95.7% 98.2% 91.5%
.500 or above in Conference 97.9% 99.3% 95.3%
Conference Champion 21.6% 28.0% 10.3%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four9.0% 9.4% 8.3%
First Round12.7% 14.9% 8.9%
Second Round0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Lindenwood (Away) - 64.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 00 - 2
Quad 31 - 21 - 4
Quad 417 - 818 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2024 55   @ Indiana L 61-80 6%     0 - 1 -6.6 -8.0 +2.2
  Nov 08, 2024 14   @ Illinois L 58-90 2%     0 - 2 -12.1 -3.5 -9.4
  Nov 12, 2024 222   @ Indiana St. W 77-72 32%     1 - 2 +4.3 +1.9 +2.3
  Nov 15, 2024 308   @ Western Michigan W 79-60 52%     2 - 2 +12.9 +5.8 +8.0
  Nov 16, 2024 351   Canisius W 76-58 76%     3 - 2 +5.1 -2.6 +8.5
  Nov 19, 2024 342   @ Green Bay L 57-82 64%     3 - 3 -34.3 -23.3 -10.5
  Nov 29, 2024 257   North Florida L 73-78 60%     3 - 4 -13.1 -10.9 -2.2
  Dec 08, 2024 272   Ball St. W 82-69 62%     4 - 4 +4.3 +8.8 -3.6
  Dec 19, 2024 226   @ Arkansas Little Rock L 56-60 33%     4 - 5 0 - 1 -4.9 -10.4 +5.3
  Dec 21, 2024 261   @ Southeast Missouri St. L 64-80 41%     4 - 6 0 - 2 -19.2 -6.2 -13.6
  Jan 02, 2025 349   Western Illinois W 77-66 82%     5 - 6 1 - 2 -4.2 +12.8 -14.8
  Jan 04, 2025 347   Lindenwood W 58-47 81%     6 - 6 2 - 2 -4.0 -18.6 +14.9
  Jan 07, 2025 341   @ Eastern Illinois W 60-57 64%     7 - 6 3 - 2 -6.2 -7.8 +1.9
  Jan 11, 2025 312   Tennessee Tech W 67-59 71%     8 - 6 4 - 2 -3.4 -10.2 +7.0
  Jan 16, 2025 294   @ Tennessee St. W 87-80 2OT 47%     9 - 6 5 - 2 +2.1 +0.0 +1.0
  Jan 18, 2025 299   @ Tennessee Martin L 82-85 48%     9 - 7 5 - 3 -8.2 +12.5 -20.9
  Jan 23, 2025 316   Southern Indiana W 82-76 73%     10 - 7 6 - 3 -5.9 +4.1 -10.0
  Jan 25, 2025 267   Morehead St. W 65-54 61%     11 - 7 7 - 3 +2.4 -5.1 +8.5
  Jan 30, 2025 347   @ Lindenwood W 70-66 64%    
  Feb 01, 2025 349   @ Western Illinois W 66-62 65%    
  Feb 04, 2025 341   Eastern Illinois W 70-61 81%    
  Feb 06, 2025 312   @ Tennessee Tech W 70-69 51%    
  Feb 13, 2025 299   Tennessee Martin W 72-67 69%    
  Feb 15, 2025 294   Tennessee St. W 73-69 67%    
  Feb 20, 2025 267   @ Morehead St. L 64-66 41%    
  Feb 22, 2025 316   @ Southern Indiana W 69-68 52%    
  Feb 27, 2025 261   Southeast Missouri St. W 70-67 60%    
  Mar 01, 2025 226   Arkansas Little Rock W 65-64 53%    
Projected Record 17 - 11 13 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Ohio Valley Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.9 5.7 8.8 5.1 1.1 21.6 1st
2nd 0.1 1.5 8.5 11.4 4.3 0.4 26.1 2nd
3rd 0.0 1.4 9.3 10.9 3.5 0.2 25.2 3rd
4th 0.0 0.6 5.3 7.4 1.9 0.0 15.1 4th
5th 0.1 1.8 4.0 0.8 0.0 6.8 5th
6th 0.0 0.7 2.1 0.6 0.0 3.4 6th
7th 0.0 0.2 0.7 0.5 1.3 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
Total 0.0 0.3 1.8 5.0 11.3 19.0 22.1 20.6 13.2 5.5 1.1 Total



Ohio Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3 100.0% 1.1    1.1 0.0
16-4 93.3% 5.1    4.0 1.1 0.0
15-5 66.2% 8.8    4.3 3.7 0.7
14-6 27.8% 5.7    1.3 2.8 1.5 0.2
13-7 3.8% 0.9    0.1 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.0
12-8 0.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 21.6% 21.6 10.8 7.9 2.6 0.3 0.1



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3 1.1% 40.2% 40.2% 14.4 0.0 0.3 0.2 0.7
16-4 5.5% 33.1% 33.1% 15.4 0.1 0.9 0.9 3.7
15-5 13.2% 28.2% 28.2% 15.8 0.0 0.8 2.9 9.5
14-6 20.6% 24.2% 24.2% 15.9 0.0 0.4 4.6 15.6
13-7 22.1% 16.2% 16.2% 16.0 0.1 3.5 18.6
12-8 19.0% 10.0% 10.0% 16.0 0.0 1.9 17.1
11-9 11.3% 5.9% 5.9% 16.0 0.0 0.7 10.6
10-10 5.0% 4.8% 4.8% 16.0 0.2 4.7
9-11 1.8% 1.7% 1.7% 16.0 0.0 1.8
8-12 0.3% 0.3
7-13 0.0% 0.0
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 17.4% 17.4% 0.0% 15.8 0.0 0.3 2.5 14.6 82.6 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.5% 100.0% 14.4 4.4 55.6 40.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.2%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.5%