Western Illinois
Ohio Valley
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-12.9#351
Expected Predictive Rating-12.8#338
Pace62.2#331
Improvement-1.4#260

Offense
Total Offense-6.2#330
First Shot-6.4#338
After Offensive Rebound+0.3#171
Layup/Dunks-9.1#363
2 Pt Jumpshots+6.7#5
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.9#239
Freethrows-2.1#304
Improvement-1.3#251

Defense
Total Defense-6.8#348
First Shot-3.8#299
After Offensive Rebounds-3.0#350
Layups/Dunks-5.4#345
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.3#227
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.3#84
Freethrows-0.4#208
Improvement-0.1#190
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed n/a n/a n/a
.500 or above 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
.500 or above in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 60.8% 23.7% 66.0%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Arkansas Little Rock (Away) - 12.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 0
Quad 21 - 11 - 1
Quad 31 - 52 - 6
Quad 46 - 148 - 20


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 163   @ San Jose St. W 59-55 8%     1 - 0 +6.4 -4.3 +11.4
  Nov 06, 2024 226   @ Pepperdine L 64-77 13%     1 - 1 -14.0 -7.8 -6.5
  Nov 13, 2024 337   Green Bay L 73-87 54%     1 - 2 -28.0 -5.0 -23.5
  Nov 16, 2024 344   Central Arkansas W 63-61 57%     2 - 2 -12.8 -8.0 -4.5
  Nov 19, 2024 100   @ Northern Iowa L 56-82 4%     2 - 3 -18.9 -7.0 -15.0
  Nov 26, 2024 133   @ South Alabama W 64-63 7%     3 - 3 +5.1 +6.2 -1.0
  Nov 27, 2024 281   Incarnate Word L 75-86 27%     3 - 4 -17.7 +1.3 -19.5
  Dec 14, 2024 243   @ South Dakota L 66-89 15%     3 - 5 -24.9 -10.1 -15.6
  Dec 17, 2024 308   Tennessee Tech W 71-68 42%     4 - 5 1 - 0 -8.0 +0.4 -8.0
  Dec 21, 2024 335   @ Lindenwood L 65-71 33%     4 - 6 1 - 1 -14.4 -7.4 -7.2
  Jan 02, 2025 234   @ SIU Edwardsville L 66-77 14%     4 - 7 1 - 2 -12.4 +8.2 -22.9
  Jan 04, 2025 338   @ Eastern Illinois W 75-67 35%     5 - 7 2 - 2 -0.9 +4.8 -5.5
  Jan 09, 2025 306   Tennessee Martin L 83-85 OT 42%     5 - 8 2 - 3 -12.9 +0.0 -12.8
  Jan 11, 2025 269   Tennessee St. L 52-72 32%     5 - 9 2 - 4 -28.2 -18.4 -12.2
  Jan 16, 2025 329   @ Morehead St. L 47-51 31%     5 - 10 2 - 5 -11.8 -19.9 +7.3
  Jan 18, 2025 343   @ Southern Indiana L 66-78 38%     5 - 11 2 - 6 -21.7 -1.0 -22.6
  Jan 23, 2025 233   Arkansas Little Rock L 51-62 27%     5 - 12 2 - 7 -17.5 -15.3 -3.5
  Jan 25, 2025 217   Southeast Missouri St. L 51-72 24%     5 - 13 2 - 8 -26.7 -17.0 -12.2
  Jan 30, 2025 338   Eastern Illinois L 59-71 54%     5 - 14 2 - 9 -26.0 -11.1 -15.9
  Feb 01, 2025 234   SIU Edwardsville L 65-69 27%     5 - 15 2 - 10 -10.5 -1.1 -10.0
  Feb 06, 2025 269   @ Tennessee St. L 69-87 18%     5 - 16 2 - 11 -21.1 -5.2 -15.9
  Feb 08, 2025 306   @ Tennessee Martin L 70-81 25%     5 - 17 2 - 12 -16.8 -6.6 -10.1
  Feb 13, 2025 343   Southern Indiana W 87-62 57%     6 - 17 3 - 12 +10.2 +11.8 -0.3
  Feb 15, 2025 329   Morehead St. W 72-67 50%     7 - 17 4 - 12 -7.9 -3.4 -4.2
  Feb 20, 2025 217   @ Southeast Missouri St. L 66-87 13%     7 - 18 4 - 13 -21.6 -9.6 -10.8
  Feb 22, 2025 233   @ Arkansas Little Rock L 59-71 12%    
  Feb 25, 2025 335   Lindenwood W 69-68 55%    
  Feb 27, 2025 308   @ Tennessee Tech L 66-73 24%    
Projected Record 8 - 20 5 - 15




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Ohio Valley Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 13.1 13.0 1.9 28.0 9th
10th 13.3 30.7 5.0 0.1 49.0 10th
11th 17.8 5.1 0.1 23.0 11th
Total 31.0 48.8 18.1 2.0 Total



Ohio Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8
11-9
10-10
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8
11-9
10-10
9-11
8-12
7-13 2.0% 2.0
6-14 18.1% 18.1
5-15 48.8% 48.8
4-16 31.0% 31.0
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 2.0%
Lose Out 31.0%