Western Illinois
Ohio Valley
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-9.2#327
Expected Predictive Rating-6.7#280
Pace62.8#335
Improvement-1.0#283

Offense
Total Offense-5.6#328
First Shot-7.4#348
After Offensive Rebound+1.7#87
Layup/Dunks-10.7#362
2 Pt Jumpshots+9.3#2
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.6#261
Freethrows-3.4#326
Improvement+1.0#63

Defense
Total Defense-3.6#297
First Shot-5.2#324
After Offensive Rebounds+1.5#85
Layups/Dunks-4.1#313
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.4#276
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.8#114
Freethrows-1.4#257
Improvement-2.0#350
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 3.7% 6.3% 3.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.9 15.8 15.9
.500 or above 26.3% 46.2% 22.6%
.500 or above in Conference 40.9% 53.0% 38.7%
Conference Champion 3.5% 6.4% 3.0%
Last Place in Conference 12.5% 7.7% 13.4%
First Four2.7% 3.4% 2.6%
First Round2.4% 4.5% 2.0%
Second Round0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: South Alabama (Away) - 15.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 0
Quad 20 - 10 - 1
Quad 31 - 51 - 5
Quad 411 - 1212 - 17


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 250   @ San Jose St. W 59-55 23%     1 - 0 +2.4 -5.9 +8.9
  Nov 06, 2024 245   @ Pepperdine L 64-77 22%     1 - 1 -14.3 -8.6 -6.0
  Nov 13, 2024 252   Green Bay L 73-87 44%     1 - 2 -21.7 -3.2 -19.0
  Nov 16, 2024 342   Central Arkansas W 63-61 72%     2 - 2 -13.1 -7.6 -5.3
  Nov 19, 2024 119   @ Northern Iowa L 56-82 8%     2 - 3 -19.7 -7.9 -14.9
  Nov 26, 2024 195   @ South Alabama L 61-72 16%    
  Nov 27, 2024 309   Incarnate Word L 69-70 46%    
  Dec 14, 2024 238   @ South Dakota L 68-76 23%    
  Dec 17, 2024 334   Tennessee Tech W 67-63 64%    
  Dec 21, 2024 355   @ Lindenwood W 68-66 55%    
  Jan 02, 2025 271   @ SIU Edwardsville L 62-69 28%    
  Jan 04, 2025 318   @ Eastern Illinois L 64-68 37%    
  Jan 09, 2025 295   Tennessee Martin W 72-71 53%    
  Jan 11, 2025 298   Tennessee St. W 69-68 54%    
  Jan 16, 2025 267   @ Morehead St. L 59-66 27%    
  Jan 18, 2025 322   @ Southern Indiana L 65-68 38%    
  Jan 23, 2025 204   Arkansas Little Rock L 66-70 36%    
  Jan 25, 2025 313   Southeast Missouri St. W 69-67 58%    
  Jan 30, 2025 318   Eastern Illinois W 67-65 59%    
  Feb 01, 2025 271   SIU Edwardsville L 65-66 48%    
  Feb 06, 2025 298   @ Tennessee St. L 66-71 33%    
  Feb 08, 2025 295   @ Tennessee Martin L 69-74 31%    
  Feb 13, 2025 322   Southern Indiana W 68-65 59%    
  Feb 15, 2025 267   @ Morehead St. L 59-66 27%    
  Feb 20, 2025 313   @ Southeast Missouri St. L 66-70 37%    
  Feb 22, 2025 204   @ Arkansas Little Rock L 63-73 19%    
  Feb 25, 2025 355   Lindenwood W 71-63 74%    
  Feb 27, 2025 334   @ Tennessee Tech L 64-66 44%    
Projected Record 12 - 16 9 - 11





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Ohio Valley Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.4 0.7 1.1 0.7 0.4 0.1 0.1 0.0 3.5 1st
2nd 0.1 0.7 2.0 1.9 1.0 0.3 0.0 6.0 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.1 2.9 2.1 0.8 0.1 7.2 3rd
4th 0.1 1.2 3.5 3.0 0.6 0.1 8.6 4th
5th 0.0 1.0 3.8 4.1 1.0 0.1 10.1 5th
6th 0.1 1.0 4.5 4.2 0.9 0.1 10.7 6th
7th 0.1 1.0 3.9 4.8 1.5 0.1 11.2 7th
8th 0.0 0.9 4.7 4.9 1.4 0.2 12.2 8th
9th 0.0 0.2 1.5 4.0 4.2 1.8 0.2 11.9 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.9 3.6 2.9 1.3 0.1 10.4 10th
11th 0.0 0.4 1.0 2.1 2.5 1.6 0.5 0.1 8.3 11th
Total 0.0 0.4 1.1 2.7 4.5 6.8 8.5 11.4 11.7 12.1 10.9 9.7 7.8 5.2 3.6 2.2 1.0 0.4 0.1 0.1 0.0 Total



Ohio Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
19-1 100.0% 0.1    0.1
18-2 91.1% 0.1    0.1 0.0
17-3 100.0% 0.4    0.3 0.1
16-4 71.3% 0.7    0.5 0.2 0.0
15-5 50.2% 1.1    0.6 0.5 0.1
14-6 20.6% 0.7    0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
13-7 6.8% 0.4    0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
12-8 0.6% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 3.5% 3.5 1.9 1.1 0.4 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.0% 0.0
19-1 0.1% 17.4% 17.4% 15.0 0.0 0.0
18-2 0.1% 48.9% 48.9% 14.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
17-3 0.4% 32.7% 32.7% 15.5 0.1 0.1 0.3
16-4 1.0% 32.5% 32.5% 15.7 0.1 0.2 0.7
15-5 2.2% 24.5% 24.5% 15.9 0.1 0.5 1.7
14-6 3.6% 15.1% 15.1% 16.0 0.0 0.5 3.0
13-7 5.2% 13.4% 13.4% 16.0 0.0 0.7 4.5
12-8 7.8% 6.0% 6.0% 16.0 0.0 0.5 7.3
11-9 9.7% 4.3% 4.3% 16.0 0.4 9.3
10-10 10.9% 1.6% 1.6% 16.0 0.2 10.7
9-11 12.1% 1.9% 1.9% 16.0 0.2 11.9
8-12 11.7% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.1 11.6
7-13 11.4% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 11.3
6-14 8.5% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 8.4
5-15 6.8% 6.8
4-16 4.5% 4.5
3-17 2.7% 2.7
2-18 1.1% 1.1
1-19 0.4% 0.4
0-20 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 3.7% 3.7% 0.0% 15.9 0.0 0.0 0.3 3.4 96.3 0.0%