Western Illinois
Ohio Valley
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-11.5#336
Expected Predictive Rating-11.0#327
Pace60.6#350
Improvement-2.0#274

Offense
Total Offense-5.3#311
First Shot-5.7#332
After Offensive Rebound+0.5#151
Layup/Dunks-9.1#363
2 Pt Jumpshots+7.1#3
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.7#228
Freethrows-2.0#300
Improvement-0.3#200

Defense
Total Defense-6.2#340
First Shot-3.3#278
After Offensive Rebounds-2.9#348
Layups/Dunks-5.3#344
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.2#214
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.4#79
Freethrows-0.3#204
Improvement-1.7#280
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.5% 0.9% 0.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 1.3% 2.9% 0.5%
.500 or above in Conference 5.4% 11.4% 2.2%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 33.7% 21.5% 40.3%
First Four0.5% 0.8% 0.3%
First Round0.2% 0.4% 0.1%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Arkansas Little Rock (Home) - 34.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 0
Quad 21 - 11 - 1
Quad 31 - 32 - 4
Quad 47 - 1410 - 19


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 161   @ San Jose St. W 59-55 10%     1 - 0 +6.9 -4.6 +12.2
  Nov 06, 2024 202   @ Pepperdine L 64-77 13%     1 - 1 -12.5 -6.3 -6.5
  Nov 13, 2024 331   Green Bay L 73-87 59%     1 - 2 -27.9 -5.8 -22.5
  Nov 16, 2024 335   Central Arkansas W 63-61 60%     2 - 2 -12.1 -7.2 -4.6
  Nov 19, 2024 112   @ Northern Iowa L 56-82 7%     2 - 3 -20.4 -9.4 -14.1
  Nov 26, 2024 122   @ South Alabama W 64-63 7%     3 - 3 +6.0 +5.9 +0.3
  Nov 27, 2024 310   Incarnate Word L 75-86 38%     3 - 4 -19.4 -0.9 -19.1
  Dec 14, 2024 269   @ South Dakota L 66-89 22%     3 - 5 -26.4 -12.0 -15.1
  Dec 17, 2024 317   Tennessee Tech W 71-68 50%     4 - 5 1 - 0 -8.6 +0.1 -8.4
  Dec 21, 2024 342   @ Lindenwood L 65-71 40%     4 - 6 1 - 1 -15.0 -8.7 -6.4
  Jan 02, 2025 263   @ SIU Edwardsville L 66-77 21%     4 - 7 1 - 2 -14.2 +7.2 -23.7
  Jan 04, 2025 343   @ Eastern Illinois W 75-67 41%     5 - 7 2 - 2 -1.2 +2.9 -3.8
  Jan 09, 2025 289   Tennessee Martin L 83-85 OT 44%     5 - 8 2 - 3 -11.8 +0.6 -12.3
  Jan 11, 2025 301   Tennessee St. L 52-72 46%     5 - 9 2 - 4 -30.5 -18.3 -14.6
  Jan 16, 2025 256   @ Morehead St. L 47-51 21%     5 - 10 2 - 5 -6.9 -16.2 +8.5
  Jan 18, 2025 324   @ Southern Indiana L 66-78 34%     5 - 11 2 - 6 -19.3 +0.4 -21.5
  Jan 23, 2025 241   Arkansas Little Rock L 63-67 35%    
  Jan 25, 2025 270   Southeast Missouri St. L 67-70 42%    
  Jan 30, 2025 343   Eastern Illinois W 67-64 62%    
  Feb 01, 2025 263   SIU Edwardsville L 63-66 40%    
  Feb 06, 2025 301   @ Tennessee St. L 67-73 27%    
  Feb 08, 2025 289   @ Tennessee Martin L 64-71 25%    
  Feb 13, 2025 324   Southern Indiana W 68-67 55%    
  Feb 15, 2025 256   @ Morehead St. L 59-68 20%    
  Feb 20, 2025 270   @ Southeast Missouri St. L 64-72 23%    
  Feb 22, 2025 241   @ Arkansas Little Rock L 60-70 18%    
  Feb 25, 2025 342   Lindenwood W 69-66 61%    
  Feb 27, 2025 317   @ Tennessee Tech L 65-70 30%    
Projected Record 9 - 19 6 - 14




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Ohio Valley Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.2 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.3 3rd
4th 0.0 0.4 0.5 0.0 1.0 4th
5th 0.0 0.5 1.6 0.4 2.5 5th
6th 0.6 2.5 1.4 0.1 4.6 6th
7th 0.0 0.7 3.8 3.8 0.4 0.0 8.9 7th
8th 0.0 1.2 5.1 6.3 1.2 0.0 13.9 8th
9th 0.1 1.9 7.5 9.2 2.6 0.1 21.3 9th
10th 0.6 3.2 9.5 10.2 3.3 0.2 27.0 10th
11th 0.9 3.6 6.8 6.4 2.5 0.2 20.4 11th
Total 0.9 4.2 10.2 17.8 21.4 18.5 13.5 8.1 3.9 1.2 0.3 0.1 Total



Ohio Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7 40.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
12-8 3.3% 0.0    0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7 0.1% 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.3% 6.7% 6.7% 16.0 0.0 0.3
11-9 1.2% 5.8% 5.8% 16.0 0.1 1.1
10-10 3.9% 2.3% 2.3% 16.0 0.1 3.8
9-11 8.1% 2.5% 2.5% 16.0 0.2 7.9
8-12 13.5% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.1 13.4
7-13 18.5% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 18.5
6-14 21.4% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 21.4
5-15 17.8% 17.8
4-16 10.2% 10.2
3-17 4.2% 4.2
2-18 0.9% 0.9
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 0.5% 0.5% 0.0% 16.0 0.5 99.5 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.9%