Western Illinois
Ohio Valley
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -16.8 362
Expected Predictive Rating -18.5 358
Pace 65.3 269
Improvement -1.9 266

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense F+ #357 F D- C C- D-
Defense D- #348 F+ D D C- D

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 36% 260 46% 362 -5.9 348
2 Pt. Jumpers 30% 30 33% 325 +2.1 74
Three Pointers 34% 317 29% 332 -5.9 341
1st FG Attempt 0.83 363 -9.6 363
Second Chance 25.8% 309 0.90 327 0.23 336
Turnovers 17.0% 187
Freethrows 0.30 196 67% 334 0.20 244
Total Offense -9.7 357

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 44% 50 67% 353 -6.8 358
2 Pt. Jumpers 17% 303 38% 158 +1.8 53
Three Pointers 40% 219 37% 298 -1.0 232
1st FG Attempt 1.14 348 -6.0 345
Second Chance 33.7% 310 1.12 307 0.38 320
Turnovers 14.6% 319
Freethrows 0.31 217 74% 272 0.23 237
Total Defense -7.2 348

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Selection -1.4 328 +0.9 323
Shot Type Accuracy -8.3 363 +5.1 346
Possession Length 19.1 337 16.1 21
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.11 338 0.24 352
Improvement -0.9 #239 -1.1 #256

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0% 0% 0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed n/a n/a n/a
.500 or above 0% 0% 0%
.500 or above in Conference 0% 0% 0%
Conference Champion 0% 0% 0%
Last Place in Conference 92% 84% 95%
First Four0% 0% 0%
First Round0% 0% 0%
Second Round0% 0% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%

Next Game: Arkansas Little Rock (Home) - 29.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 1
Quad 20 - 10 - 2
Quad 30 - 60 - 7
Quad 43 - 173 - 25


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 233 @Radford L 75 - 80 8% -5  6% 0 - 1 D+ -6 B+ +7 D A+ C+ F -14 F F F
 Fri, Nov 7 25 @Iowa L 58 - 77 0% -10  7% 0 - 2 C -0 D+ -3 D- D+ C+ C+ +1 F+ A+ F+
 Tue, Nov 11 322 @Cal St. Bakersfield L 58 - 74 18% -7  4% 0 - 3 F -23 F -18 D- F F D -6 F+ C+ C
 Fri, Nov 14 138 @California Baptist L 59 - 69 4% -6  2% 0 - 4 D+ -6 D -5 D+ F+ B+ C- -2 B+ B- F
 Fri, Nov 21 238 Coastal Carolina L 64 - 84 18% -13  0% 0 - 5 F -27 F -16 F B C- F+ -10 D- D- C-
 Sun, Nov 23 288 North Dakota L 69 - 78 27% +1  51% 0 - 6 F -19 F -17 D D D- C- -2 F B B
 Tue, Dec 2 177 @Drake L 57 - 108 5% -26  0% 0 - 7 F -49 F -13 F F B F -41 F F D+
 Sat, Dec 13 288 @North Dakota W 69 - 66 OT 13% +1  53% 1 - 7 C -1 F -13 F A D A +11 A+ F A+
 Thu, Dec 18 246 @Lindenwood L 76 - 92 9% -13  1% 1 - 8 0 - 1 F -18 D -4 D+ C- B+ F -12 F F D-
 Mon, Dec 22 245 SIU Edwardsville L 61 - 66 19% +3  70% 1 - 9 0 - 2 D- -13 F -15 D F+ D C+ +2 B+ F A
 Thu, Jan 1 219 @Tennessee Martin L 60 - 67 7% +2  56% 1 - 10 0 - 3 D+ -7 D- -6 C F D C -1 B- A F
 Sat, Jan 3 230 @Southeast Missouri St. L 50 - 73 7% -9  4% 1 - 11 0 - 4 F -24 F -21 F F F D+ -5 D- F C
 Thu, Jan 8 235 Tennessee St. L 68 - 90 18% -14  0% 1 - 12 0 - 5 F -29 F -14 F D+ B+ F -15 F F C-
 Sat, Jan 10 320 Tennessee Tech L 54 - 59 35% +2  68% 1 - 13 0 - 6 F -18 F -22 F F F B- +3 B B D
 Tue, Jan 13 326 @Eastern Illinois L 55 - 57 18% -4  7% 1 - 14 0 - 7 D -9 F -16 F D C- B+ +7 A C+ C-
 Sat, Jan 17 301 @Arkansas Little Rock L 79 - 86 14% -6  13% 1 - 15 0 - 8 D- -12 B- +4 F+ D+ A+ F -17 F D+ F
 Thu, Jan 22 292 @Morehead St. L 66 - 71 13% -1  23% 1 - 16 0 - 9 D -10 D- -7 F C+ A C- -3 B F D
 Fri, Jan 23 340 @Southern Indiana L 64 - 96 22% -22  0% 1 - 17 0 - 10 F -41 F -15 F F+ B+ F -25 F F D+
 Thu, Jan 29 230 Southeast Missouri St. L 74 - 78 17% -2  21% 1 - 18 0 - 11 D -11 D+ -3 D+ F A+ D- -8 F B- B-
 Sat, Jan 31 219 Tennessee Martin L 44 - 84 16% -21  0% 1 - 19 0 - 12 F -46 F -27 F F D- F -22 F F F
 Thu, Feb 5 320 @Tennessee Tech L 72 - 97 18% -18  1% 1 - 20 0 - 13 F -32 C+ +2 C D+ C- F -37 F F F
 Sat, Feb 7 235 @Tennessee St. L 56 - 83 8% -21  0% 1 - 21 0 - 14 F -28 F -19 F F C- F+ -10 F A+ F+
 Tue, Feb 10 326 Eastern Illinois W 79 - 70 36% +4  70% 2 - 21 1 - 14 C- -4 C- -1 C+ D- A- D+ -4 D D+ D-
 Thu, Feb 12 301 Arkansas Little Rock L 66 - 72 29%
 Thu, Feb 19 340 Southern Indiana L 67 - 69 43%
 Sat, Feb 21 292 Morehead St. L 67 - 73 28%
 Thu, Feb 26 245 @SIU Edwardsville L 57 - 72 8%
 Sat, Feb 28 246 Lindenwood L 70 - 79 20%
Totals 3 - 25 2 - 18 -17 F+ -10 F D- C D- -7 F+ D D



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings F+ F D D- F 36% 30% 34% D- F D D- D- C C D- C- D- F+ C D D- 44% 17% 40% D F+ D D D D C- D+ C-
0.95 46% 33% 29% -8 -1 0.83 26% 0.9 .23 17% .30 67% .20 1.19 67% 38% 37% +5 +1 1.14 34% 1.1 .38 15% .31 74% .22
Nov
3		 Radford B+ F A+ C- D+ 37% 30% 33% F D A+ A+ A+ C+ B F C F F F A+ F 41% 17% 41% C- F F F F F F A F
1.21 47% 50% 33% -1 -1 0.98 47% 1.5 .72 18% .39 65% .25 1.29 82% 57% 24% +7 +1 1.17 43% 1.2 .53 11% .56 65% .36
Nov
7		 Iowa D+ C F C D 28% 37% 35% F D- D B- D+ C+ B+ A+ A C+ F B- F F+ 37% 11% 52% C- F+ A+ A+ A+ F+ D+ C+ C-
0.92 58% 25% 33% -5 -3 0.86 21% 1.0 .21 22% .37 83% .31 1.22 82% 40% 42% +15 +1 1.35 15% 0.0 .00 11% .36 75% .27
Nov
11		 Cal St. Bakersfield F F C- A+ D+ 34% 34% 32% F D- C- F F F C F F+ D C B- D D 46% 19% 35% F F+ F+ A C+ C C- F+ D
0.87 40% 40% 43% -1 -2 0.95 35% 0.6 .22 25% .36 56% .20 1.10 55% 33% 35% -2 +1 1.00 38% 0.8 .29 19% .37 80% .30
Nov
14		 California Baptist D D A- F D+ 51% 28% 21% C D+ F B- F+ B+ A- D+ B C- B- A+ A+ A 42% 8% 50% D- B+ F A B- F D F F+
0.94 50% 46% 20% -6 0 0.89 12% 1.0 .12 13% .38 71% .27 1.10 50% 25% 25% -11 +2 0.83 46% 0.7 .30 10% .35 80% .28
Nov
21		 Coastal Carolina F C+ F+ F F 17% 52% 31% F F C- A+ B C- B- C+ B- F+ C+ A+ F D- 27% 20% 54% D D- F C+ D- C- D- B- D
0.87 56% 32% 18% -11 -6 0.69 27% 1.3 .35 14% .33 71% .24 1.14 53% 18% 43% +2 -1 1.05 35% 0.9 .32 15% .32 70% .22
Nov
23		 North Dakota F F F A+ D 37% 17% 46% D+ D F A+ D D- C- F F C- D+ C F F 42% 27% 31% A- F A+ F B B C F F+
0.94 41% 25% 48% +1 0 1.04 24% 1.4 .32 23% .37 52% .20 1.07 59% 36% 44% +4 -1 1.10 12% 2.0 .23 18% .33 85% .28
Dec
2		 Drake F F A F F 23% 42% 35% F F D- F F B A- F+ B- F F F F F 31% 16% 53% D F D F F D+ A F B-
0.89 45% 45% 24% -5 -4 0.83 24% 0.6 .14 13% .38 62% .23 1.69 81% 75% 59% +33 0 1.69 29% 2.2 .65 13% .21 92% .20
Dec
13		 North Dakota F F F F F 54% 18% 28% C+ F A+ C- A D B+ A A A B A+ A+ 48% 0% 52% F A+ D F F A+ F D+ F
0.95 33% 22% 14% -24 +1 0.56 48% 1.1 .52 22% .44 80% .35 0.91 50% 17% -17 +3 0.74 32% 1.3 .42 23% .45 72% .33
Dec
18		 Lindenwood D B- F F D- 62% 15% 24% B+ D+ F A+ C- B+ A+ F C F D B- F F 52% 19% 29% D F F D- F D- F A+ F
1.00 62% 13% 23% -5 +2 0.96 21% 1.5 .32 15% .43 54% .23 1.21 63% 30% 40% +4 +1 1.12 39% 1.3 .49 16% .53 56% .30
Dec
22		 SIU Edwardsville F D D D+ D+ 39% 33% 28% D D F A+ F+ D B+ F+ B- C+ B B+ B- B 27% 38% 36% A- B+ C F F A F F F
0.86 50% 33% 31% -6 -1 0.87 14% 1.5 .21 18% .38 68% .26 0.93 50% 29% 31% -7 -3 0.82 28% 2.1 .60 24% .43 78% .34
Jan
1		 Tennessee Martin D- C+ F A+ B- 17% 36% 47% F C A- F F D F B F C D A+ F B- 50% 38% 12% A- B- D+ A+ A F F C- F
0.94 63% 18% 45% +2 -4 0.98 41% 0.3 .13 20% .22 73% .16 1.05 62% 19% 40% -4 -1 0.90 38% 0.5 .21 11% .54 68% .37
Jan
3		 Southeast Missouri St. F F D F F 34% 27% 39% F+ F D- F F F A+ C- A+ D+ C- F B- D 59% 11% 30% F D- D- F F C D C- D+
0.77 43% 36% 19% -14 -1 0.71 21% 0.7 .14 26% .54 73% .39 1.12 58% 60% 31% +1 +3 1.09 33% 1.6 .54 17% .35 68% .24
Jan
8		 Tennessee St. F F+ F F F 71% 4% 25% A+ F C- D D+ B+ A+ D+ A+ F D- B- D F 57% 17% 26% F F C- F F C- F A F+
0.94 50% 0% 8% -17 +4 0.77 29% 1.0 .29 15% .56 74% .41 1.25 67% 33% 36% +5 +2 1.15 32% 1.7 .55 15% .38 65% .25
Jan
10		 Tennessee Tech F F+ F+ A- F+ 35% 40% 25% F F C- F F F A+ F B- B- C A+ A+ A- 55% 18% 27% F B C A- B D C+ A+ A
0.86 50% 31% 40% -3 -3 0.90 31% 0.7 .21 24% .46 55% .25 0.94 56% 22% 23% -9 +1 0.88 30% 0.8 .24 18% .27 50% .14
Jan
13		 Eastern Illinois F F F+ F F 57% 21% 21% C+ F C- F+ D C- C B+ B- B+ C A+ A+ A 45% 34% 20% C- A C B+ C+ C- F D F
0.83 41% 30% 10% -19 +1 0.66 34% 0.9 .32 20% .34 83% .28 0.86 55% 20% 11% -14 -1 0.70 26% 0.9 .23 18% .42 78% .33
Jan
17		 Arkansas Little Rock B- A- B F D- 39% 26% 35% F+ F+ A- F D+ A+ A F+ B+ F F A+ F F 31% 26% 43% D+ F B- F D+ F C- F F
1.17 71% 43% 26% +2 -1 1.06 44% 0.7 .29 12% .39 65% .25 1.27 76% 14% 43% +6 -1 1.11 27% 1.2 .33 10% .25 100% .25
Jan
22		 Morehead St. D- F C- C+ F 33% 25% 42% F+ F F A+ C+ A F F F C- D+ B+ A+ B+ 48% 27% 25% D B F F+ F D F+ A+ B
1.03 35% 38% 36% -6 -1 0.88 26% 1.4 .36 11% .23 46% .10 1.10 61% 31% 17% -7 0 0.88 50% 1.0 .52 16% .37 50% .18
Jan
23		 Southern Indiana F D- F F F 42% 33% 25% F F F B- F+ B+ B D+ B- F F+ F F F 42% 18% 40% D- F F D F D+ B- F D+
0.87 50% 24% 23% -12 -1 0.75 19% 1.0 .19 12% .37 71% .26 1.31 60% 55% 42% +9 +1 1.20 36% 0.9 .33 16% .26 81% .21
Jan
29		 Southeast Missouri St. D+ D+ F B- D+ 35% 14% 51% C- D+ D- F F A+ B+ D- B- D- F A+ A- F 51% 7% 42% F F A+ F B- B- F D+ F
1.07 53% 29% 36% -1 +1 1.00 22% 0.8 .16 10% .47 69% .32 1.13 82% 0% 28% +6 +3 1.19 18% 1.8 .32 19% .59 70% .41
Jan
31		 Tennessee Martin F F D+ D- F 37% 14% 49% B+ F F F F D- B- D+ C+ F F+ F C+ F+ 51% 8% 42% F F F F F F C+ F D+
0.68 25% 33% 29% -17 +1 0.70 18% 0.3 .06 22% .35 67% .24 1.30 67% 50% 32% +4 +3 1.15 48% 1.3 .63 14% .30 76% .23
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Feb
5		 Tennessee Tech C+ F+ C+ A+ C+ 26% 32% 43% F C D+ C D+ C- C+ A- B- F D F F F 35% 14% 51% D- F F D F F D+ D+ D
1.16 50% 40% 45% +6 -2 1.09 29% 1.2 .35 16% .31 81% .25 1.57 61% 57% 58% +22 +1 1.47 50% 1.1 .54 13% .32 76% .24
Feb
7		 Tennessee St. F F C F F 35% 24% 41% F F D F F C- B- D+ C+ F+ F C+ A- F 45% 29% 26% D+ F D+ A+ A+ F+ B+ F C+
0.82 47% 42% 20% -11 -1 0.78 26% 0.6 .16 19% .40 73% .29 1.22 85% 35% 27% +8 -1 1.17 33% 0.4 .12 12% .20 92% .18
Feb
10		 Eastern Illinois C- B+ D A B+ 25% 35% 39% F C+ F B+ D- A- A D- A- D+ C- F A+ D- 28% 37% 35% A- D C+ F D+ D- B A+ A
1.10 69% 33% 40% +5 -3 1.06 24% 1.3 .30 15% .43 73% .31 0.97 56% 48% 25% -2 -3 0.93 24% 1.2 .30 15% .23 57% .13



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Ohio Valley Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 0.2 0.1 0.2 9th
10th 2.3 9.4 7.1 1.4 0.1 20.2 10th
11th 23.6 36.4 16.9 2.7 0.1 79.6 11th
Total 23.6 38.7 26.3 9.7 1.6 0.1 Total



Ohio Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8
11-9
10-10
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8
11-9
10-10
9-11
8-12
7-13
6-14 0.1% 0.1
5-15 1.6% 1.6
4-16 9.7% 9.7
3-17 26.3% 26.3
2-18 38.7% 38.7
1-19 23.6% 23.6
0-20
Total 100% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 23.6%