Western Illinois
Ohio Valley
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating-14.5#361
Expected Predictive Rating-20.3#361
Pace62.5#347
Improvement-3.3#345

Offense
Total Offense-6.7#343
First Shot-4.9#308
After Offensive Rebound-1.7#284
Layup/Dunks-6.4#344
2 Pt Jumpshots+5.4#16
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.7#268
Freethrows-1.2#244
Improvement-2.2#343

Defense
Total Defense-7.8#358
First Shot-7.9#362
After Offensive Rebounds+0.0#191
Layups/Dunks-0.3#186
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.1#208
3 Pt Jumpshots-7.1#359
Freethrows-0.4#208
Improvement-1.1#283
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.2% 0.4% 0.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 0.3% 0.9% 0.1%
.500 or above in Conference 5.4% 8.7% 4.2%
Conference Champion 0.2% 0.3% 0.1%
Last Place in Conference 56.9% 48.5% 60.0%
First Four0.2% 0.4% 0.1%
First Round0.1% 0.3% 0.0%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: North Dakota (Away) - 27.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 1
Quad 20 - 10 - 2
Quad 30 - 40 - 7
Quad 45 - 165 - 23


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 290 @Radford L 75-80 16%     0 - 1 -9.0 +9.5 -19.2
  Fri, Nov 7 27 @Iowa L 58-77 1%     0 - 2 -1.9 -0.7 -3.3
  Tue, Nov 11 280 @Cal St. Bakersfield L 58-74 15%     0 - 3 -19.5 -13.2 -7.1
  Fri, Nov 14 130 @California Baptist L 59-69 4%     0 - 4 -4.9 -3.1 -3.0
  Fri, Nov 21 260 Coastal Carolina L 64-84 28%     0 - 5 -28.6 -13.5 -14.0
  Sun, Nov 23 340 North Dakota L 69-78 49%     0 - 6 -23.1 -12.5 -10.3
  Tue, Dec 2 128 @Drake L 57-108 4%     0 - 7 -45.5 -7.2 -43.2
  Sat, Dec 13 340 @North Dakota L 67-73 27%    
  Thu, Dec 18 246 @Lindenwood L 65-78 11%    
  Mon, Dec 22 206 SIU Edwardsville L 61-70 21%    
  Thu, Jan 1 239 @Tennessee Martin L 61-74 11%    
  Sat, Jan 3 233 @Southeast Missouri St. L 66-79 11%    
  Thu, Jan 8 249 Tennessee St. L 68-75 27%    
  Sat, Jan 10 306 Tennessee Tech L 70-73 38%    
  Tue, Jan 13 325 @Eastern Illinois L 62-70 23%    
  Sat, Jan 17 305 @Arkansas Little Rock L 62-72 20%    
  Thu, Jan 22 327 @Morehead St. L 64-72 23%    
  Sat, Jan 24 317 @Southern Indiana L 68-77 21%    
  Thu, Jan 29 233 Southeast Missouri St. L 69-76 26%    
  Sat, Jan 31 239 Tennessee Martin L 64-71 27%    
  Thu, Feb 5 306 @Tennessee Tech L 67-76 21%    
  Sat, Feb 7 249 @Tennessee St. L 65-78 13%    
  Tue, Feb 10 325 Eastern Illinois L 65-67 42%    
  Thu, Feb 12 305 Arkansas Little Rock L 65-69 38%    
  Thu, Feb 19 317 Southern Indiana L 71-74 39%    
  Sat, Feb 21 327 Morehead St. L 67-69 43%    
  Thu, Feb 26 206 @SIU Edwardsville L 58-73 10%    
  Sat, Feb 28 246 Lindenwood L 68-75 27%    
Projected Record 5 - 23 5 - 15




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Ohio Valley Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 1st
2nd 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.4 2nd
3rd 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.8 3rd
4th 0.1 0.5 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0 1.4 4th
5th 0.0 0.6 1.1 0.5 0.1 2.2 5th
6th 0.1 0.7 1.7 0.8 0.1 3.2 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 0.9 2.4 1.4 0.2 4.9 7th
8th 0.0 0.2 1.3 3.4 2.6 0.3 7.8 8th
9th 0.1 0.4 2.2 4.6 4.1 0.9 0.0 12.2 9th
10th 0.0 0.4 2.1 5.1 7.6 4.9 1.2 0.1 21.5 10th
11th 1.8 6.1 10.5 11.7 9.3 4.7 1.1 0.1 45.3 11th
Total 1.8 6.1 10.9 13.8 14.8 14.7 12.0 9.7 6.7 4.0 2.6 1.6 0.7 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 Total



Ohio Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2 100.0% 0.0    0.0
17-3
16-4 100.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
15-5 77.8% 0.0    0.0 0.0
14-6 33.3% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0
13-7 13.3% 0.0    0.0 0.0
12-8 2.7% 0.0    0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 0.2% 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2 0.0% 0.0
17-3
16-4 0.0% 0.0
15-5 0.0% 0.0
14-6 0.2% 0.2
13-7 0.3% 7.8% 7.8% 16.0 0.0 0.3
12-8 0.7% 3.6% 3.6% 16.0 0.0 0.7
11-9 1.6% 2.9% 2.9% 16.0 0.0 1.5
10-10 2.6% 1.4% 1.4% 16.0 0.0 2.6
9-11 4.0% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.0 4.0
8-12 6.7% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 6.7
7-13 9.7% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 9.7
6-14 12.0% 12.0
5-15 14.7% 14.7
4-16 14.8% 14.8
3-17 13.8% 13.8
2-18 10.9% 10.9
1-19 6.1% 6.1
0-20 1.8% 1.8
Total 100% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 16.0 0.2 99.8 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 1.5%