Eastern Illinois
Ohio Valley
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating-9.9#329
Expected Predictive Rating-11.0#318
Pace66.1#274
Improvement-2.1#310

Offense
Total Offense-6.8#343
First Shot-4.8#304
After Offensive Rebound-2.0#301
Layup/Dunks-0.4#190
2 Pt Jumpshots+4.0#25
3 Pt Jumpshots-9.4#358
Freethrows+0.9#132
Improvement+1.5#65

Defense
Total Defense-3.1#267
First Shot+0.6#155
After Offensive Rebounds-3.7#345
Layups/Dunks-2.9#290
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.3#88
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.9#117
Freethrows+0.2#163
Improvement-3.6#359
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 1.8% 2.4% 1.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.9 15.9 16.0
.500 or above 6.4% 10.6% 2.9%
.500 or above in Conference 25.2% 30.7% 20.6%
Conference Champion 1.5% 2.2% 1.0%
Last Place in Conference 17.8% 14.3% 20.8%
First Four1.3% 1.6% 1.1%
First Round1.2% 1.7% 0.8%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Eastern Kentucky (Home) - 45.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 30 - 3
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 4
Quad 20 - 00 - 4
Quad 31 - 41 - 8
Quad 49 - 119 - 19


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Tue, Nov 4 211 @Valparaiso L 63-66 18%     0 - 1 -3.3 -7.8 +4.5
  Fri, Nov 7 254 Nicholls St. W 65-57 43%     1 - 1 -0.2 -10.2 +10.1
  Tue, Nov 11 58 @Notre Dame L 58-78 3%     1 - 2 -7.5 +0.0 -10.5
  Fri, Nov 14 21 @Kentucky L 53-99 1%     1 - 3 -27.9 -9.2 -20.1
  Tue, Nov 25 279 @Central Arkansas L 60-81 26%     1 - 4 -24.2 -6.5 -19.9
  Fri, Nov 28 7 @Purdue L 62-109 1%     1 - 5 -23.7 -4.0 -18.4
  Sat, Dec 6 236 Lindenwood L 74-82 40%     1 - 6 0 - 1 -15.3 -2.8 -12.3
  Wed, Dec 10 269 Eastern Kentucky L 73-74 46%    
  Sun, Dec 14 2 @Iowa St. L 54-90 0.0%   
  Thu, Dec 18 230 SIU Edwardsville L 65-68 40%    
  Thu, Jan 1 216 @Southeast Missouri St. L 67-76 19%    
  Sat, Jan 3 240 @Tennessee Martin L 63-71 22%    
  Thu, Jan 8 271 Tennessee Tech L 71-72 46%    
  Sat, Jan 10 249 Tennessee St. L 70-72 42%    
  Tue, Jan 13 361 Western Illinois W 71-63 76%    
  Thu, Jan 15 315 @Arkansas Little Rock L 66-70 35%    
  Thu, Jan 22 314 @Southern Indiana L 70-74 35%    
  Sat, Jan 24 325 @Morehead St. L 68-71 39%    
  Thu, Jan 29 240 Tennessee Martin L 66-68 42%    
  Sat, Jan 31 216 Southeast Missouri St. L 70-73 39%    
  Thu, Feb 5 249 @Tennessee St. L 67-75 24%    
  Sat, Feb 7 271 @Tennessee Tech L 68-75 26%    
  Tue, Feb 10 361 @Western Illinois W 68-66 56%    
  Sat, Feb 14 315 Arkansas Little Rock W 69-67 56%    
  Thu, Feb 19 325 Morehead St. W 71-68 60%    
  Sat, Feb 21 314 Southern Indiana W 73-71 56%    
  Thu, Feb 26 236 @Lindenwood L 68-77 23%    
  Sat, Feb 28 230 @SIU Edwardsville L 62-71 22%    
Projected Record 9 - 19 8 - 12




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Ohio Valley Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 1.5 1st
2nd 0.1 0.7 1.2 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0 2.9 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.1 1.9 1.0 0.2 0.0 4.3 3rd
4th 0.1 1.1 2.7 1.4 0.2 0.0 5.4 4th
5th 0.1 1.1 3.5 2.3 0.3 0.0 7.4 5th
6th 0.1 1.0 3.9 3.3 0.6 0.0 9.0 6th
7th 0.1 1.2 4.7 4.7 1.0 0.0 11.7 7th
8th 0.0 0.2 1.6 5.2 5.3 1.5 0.1 13.8 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.5 2.3 5.6 5.4 1.8 0.2 15.8 9th
10th 0.0 0.2 1.2 3.8 5.5 4.5 1.5 0.2 16.9 10th
11th 0.1 0.7 1.9 3.1 3.2 1.7 0.5 0.1 11.4 11th
Total 0.1 0.8 2.1 4.4 7.5 9.7 12.4 13.4 13.1 11.4 9.1 6.8 4.3 2.8 1.4 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 Total



Ohio Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1 100.0% 0.0    0.0
18-2 100.0% 0.0    0.0
17-3 90.5% 0.1    0.1
16-4 83.3% 0.2    0.2 0.0
15-5 65.2% 0.4    0.2 0.1 0.0
14-6 38.1% 0.5    0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0
13-7 11.8% 0.3    0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
12-8 1.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0% 0.0    0.0
10-10 0.0%
Total 1.5% 1.5 0.7 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1 0.0% 0.0 0.0
18-2 0.0% 0.0
17-3 0.1% 28.6% 28.6% 14.8 0.0 0.0 0.1
16-4 0.2% 26.4% 26.4% 15.5 0.0 0.0 0.2
15-5 0.5% 24.8% 24.8% 15.8 0.0 0.1 0.4
14-6 1.4% 17.0% 17.0% 15.9 0.0 0.2 1.2
13-7 2.8% 12.7% 12.7% 16.0 0.0 0.3 2.4
12-8 4.3% 7.4% 7.4% 16.0 0.0 0.3 4.0
11-9 6.8% 3.4% 3.4% 16.0 0.2 6.5
10-10 9.1% 2.3% 2.3% 16.0 0.2 8.9
9-11 11.4% 1.2% 1.2% 16.0 0.1 11.3
8-12 13.1% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.1 13.0
7-13 13.4% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 13.4
6-14 12.4% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 12.4
5-15 9.7% 9.7
4-16 7.5% 7.5
3-17 4.4% 4.4
2-18 2.1% 2.1
1-19 0.8% 0.8
0-20 0.1% 0.1
Total 100% 1.8% 1.8% 0.0% 15.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 1.7 98.2 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.1%