Morehead St.
Ohio Valley
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -8.1 #302
Expected Predictive Rating -5.7 #257
Pace 64.7 #290
Improvement +1.8 #101

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #232 D C C- C- D
Defense #333 D D+ D C D-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 40% #147 1.10 #252 -0.6 #200
2 Pt. Jumpers 27% #55 0.74 #194 +2.4 #67
Three Pointers 33% #330 0.93 #280 -5.4 #330
1st FG Attempt 0.95 #281 -3.6 #280
Freethrows 16.9 #232 70% #236 11.9 #237
Second Chance 35.0% #60 0.92 #325 0.32 #169
Turnovers 17.4% #245
Total Offense -2.4 #232

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 41% #107 1.18 #213 -2.1 #254
2 Pt. Jumpers 16% #315 0.86 #320 +0.9 #127
Three Pointers 43% #126 1.10 #290 -2.6 #294
1st FG Attempt 1.09 #298 -3.8 #298
Freethrows 18.7 #241 70% #65 13.1 #205
Second Chance 36.7% #351 0.96 #66 0.35 #262
Turnovers 14.4% #304
Total Defense -5.7 #333

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -1.6% #289 1.6% #317
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -5.6% #268 5.8% #287
Possession Length 19.0 #334 16.7 #73
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.14 #272 0.25 #356
Improvement +4.0 #14 -2.3 #305

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 5.8% 6.9% 3.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.9 15.9 16.0
.500 or above 21.2% 27.6% 9.9%
.500 or above in Conference 84.6% 91.7% 72.2%
Conference Champion 8.4% 11.4% 3.1%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four3.3% 3.8% 2.5%
First Round4.0% 4.8% 2.5%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Eastern Illinois (Home) - 63.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 3
Quad 20 - 20 - 4
Quad 31 - 41 - 8
Quad 412 - 913 - 17


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Fri, Nov 7 63 @Wake Forest L 65 - 81 4% -8  0 - 1 -4 -9 F C+ D- +7 A+ D+ A+
 Sun, Nov 9 24 @Georgia L 81 - 120 1% -21  0 - 2 -20 +7 F A+ C- -22 F F D
 Tue, Nov 11 32 @Clemson L 56 - 83 2% -17  0 - 3 -10 +3 F A+ C -18 C F F
 Fri, Nov 21 135 @East Tennessee St. L 62 - 77 12% -2  0 - 4 -10 -4 C F F -8 B+ F D
 Sat, Nov 22 361 Louisiana Monroe W 83 - 80 77% +0  1 - 4 -13 +1 C- C- C- -14 D C F
 Sat, Nov 29 337 @IU Indianapolis L 80 - 85 51% -2  1 - 5 -13 -10 F F F -2 F A+ C
 Tue, Dec 2 97 @Murray St. L 52 - 84 7% -10  1 - 6 -24 -17 F F C -8 B F C+
 Sat, Dec 6 266 @Presbyterian L 72 - 80 31% -3  1 - 7 -11 +1 B- F C+ -12 F F A+
 Tue, Dec 16 282 Arkansas Little Rock W 78 - 64 56% +10  2 - 7 1 - 0 +4 -5 F C F +8 A C C
 Sat, Dec 20 329 @Southern Indiana W 64 - 60 OT 48% -5  3 - 7 2 - 0 -4 -2 F D+ B+ -1 C B- B
 Thu, Jan 1 237 @Lindenwood L 64 - 77 26% -6  3 - 8 2 - 1 -14 -6 D- D+ D -8 F A+ F
 Sat, Jan 3 257 @SIU Edwardsville W 73 - 72 28% -2  4 - 8 3 - 1 -1 +10 A+ D- F -11 F D+ F
 Thu, Jan 8 226 Tennessee Martin L 68 - 76 45% +15  4 - 9 3 - 2 -15 +3 B- C+ F -19 D F B
 Sat, Jan 10 245 Southeast Missouri St. W 71 - 69 48% -4  5 - 9 4 - 2 -6 +8 A+ D- F -13 C B- F
 Thu, Jan 15 241 @Tennessee St. L 100 - 105 OT 26% -5  5 - 10 4 - 3 -6 +16 C- C A+ -22 F F D
 Sat, Jan 17 342 @Tennessee Tech W 76 - 70 52% +7  6 - 10 5 - 3 -3 +8 F A A+ -10 C+ F F
 Thu, Jan 22 356 Western Illinois W 71 - 66 80% +1  7 - 10 6 - 3 -12 -2 F A+ D -10 D F F
 Sat, Jan 24 310 Eastern Illinois W 69 - 65 63%
 Thu, Jan 29 257 SIU Edwardsville W 68 - 67 50%
 Sat, Jan 31 237 Lindenwood L 75 - 76 47%
 Thu, Feb 5 245 @Southeast Missouri St. L 71 - 77 27%
 Sat, Feb 7 226 @Tennessee Martin L 65 - 72 25%
 Thu, Feb 12 342 Tennessee Tech W 76 - 70 73%
 Sat, Feb 14 241 Tennessee St. L 76 - 77 47%
 Thu, Feb 19 310 @Eastern Illinois L 66 - 68 41%
 Sat, Feb 21 356 @Western Illinois W 70 - 67 61%
 Tue, Feb 24 329 Southern Indiana W 73 - 68 69%
 Thu, Feb 26 282 @Arkansas Little Rock L 70 - 74 35%
Totals 12 - 16 11 - 9 -8 -2 D C C- -6 D D+ D




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Ohio Valley Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.1 1.3 3.6 2.5 0.8 0.1 8.4 1st
2nd 0.0 1.5 6.5 4.1 0.7 0.0 12.9 2nd
3rd 0.6 6.9 6.0 0.7 0.0 14.2 3rd
4th 0.2 4.3 8.4 1.1 14.1 4th
5th 0.0 1.8 9.0 3.0 0.0 13.9 5th
6th 0.0 1.0 6.6 5.7 0.3 13.6 6th
7th 0.8 4.4 6.2 1.0 0.0 12.3 7th
8th 0.0 0.6 3.2 4.3 1.5 0.0 9.7 8th
9th 0.1 0.5 0.4 0.1 1.0 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 10th
11th 11th
Total 0.1 1.1 4.4 9.8 16.3 20.5 20.2 15.0 8.5 3.2 0.8 0.1 Total



Ohio Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3 100.0% 0.1    0.1
16-4 97.5% 0.8    0.7 0.1
15-5 77.8% 2.5    1.5 0.9 0.1
14-6 42.8% 3.6    1.0 1.7 0.8 0.1
13-7 8.7% 1.3    0.1 0.3 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.2% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 8.4% 8.4 3.3 3.0 1.5 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
16-4 0.8% 24.8% 24.8% 15.4 0.1 0.1 0.6
15-5 3.2% 23.3% 23.3% 15.8 0.2 0.6 2.5
14-6 8.5% 17.2% 17.2% 15.9 0.2 1.3 7.0
13-7 15.0% 10.0% 10.0% 15.9 0.1 1.4 13.5
12-8 20.2% 4.9% 4.9% 16.0 0.0 1.0 19.2
11-9 20.5% 2.7% 2.7% 16.0 0.5 20.0
10-10 16.3% 1.4% 1.4% 16.0 0.2 16.1
9-11 9.8% 0.8% 0.8% 16.0 0.1 9.7
8-12 4.4% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 4.3
7-13 1.1% 1.1
6-14 0.1% 0.1
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 5.8% 5.8% 0.0% 15.9 94.2 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.1%