Western Illinois
Ohio Valley
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating-14.5#361
Expected Predictive Rating-19.9#360
Pace62.4#349
Improvement-2.8#333

Offense
Total Offense-6.9#345
First Shot-4.7#301
After Offensive Rebound-2.2#311
Layup/Dunks-5.9#344
2 Pt Jumpshots+5.6#13
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.0#276
Freethrows-1.4#260
Improvement-1.9#325

Defense
Total Defense-7.5#358
First Shot-7.6#362
After Offensive Rebounds+0.1#187
Layups/Dunks-0.2#186
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.0#209
3 Pt Jumpshots-6.9#358
Freethrows-0.5#226
Improvement-0.8#263
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.2% 0.3% 0.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 0.3% 0.8% 0.1%
.500 or above in Conference 5.3% 8.1% 4.3%
Conference Champion 0.2% 0.3% 0.1%
Last Place in Conference 56.8% 48.6% 59.7%
First Four0.2% 0.3% 0.1%
First Round0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: North Dakota (Away) - 26.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 1
Quad 20 - 10 - 2
Quad 30 - 50 - 7
Quad 45 - 165 - 23


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 288 @Radford L 75-80 17%     0 - 1 -9.1 +9.4 -19.2
  Fri, Nov 7 25 @Iowa L 58-77 1%     0 - 2 -1.4 -0.4 -3.1
  Tue, Nov 11 295 @Cal St. Bakersfield L 58-74 17%     0 - 3 -20.4 -14.6 -6.6
  Fri, Nov 14 131 @California Baptist L 59-69 5%     0 - 4 -5.0 -3.9 -2.2
  Fri, Nov 21 235 Coastal Carolina L 64-84 25%     0 - 5 -27.3 -13.7 -12.6
  Sun, Nov 23 337 North Dakota L 69-78 47%     0 - 6 -22.8 -12.4 -10.0
  Tue, Dec 2 124 @Drake L 57-108 4%     0 - 7 -45.6 -7.3 -43.2
  Sat, Dec 13 337 @North Dakota L 66-73 26%    
  Thu, Dec 18 236 @Lindenwood L 65-78 11%    
  Mon, Dec 22 230 SIU Edwardsville L 63-70 24%    
  Thu, Jan 1 240 @Tennessee Martin L 61-74 12%    
  Sat, Jan 3 216 @Southeast Missouri St. L 64-78 10%    
  Thu, Jan 8 249 Tennessee St. L 67-74 27%    
  Sat, Jan 10 271 Tennessee Tech L 68-74 30%    
  Tue, Jan 13 329 @Eastern Illinois L 63-71 24%    
  Sat, Jan 17 315 @Arkansas Little Rock L 63-72 22%    
  Thu, Jan 22 325 @Morehead St. L 65-73 24%    
  Sat, Jan 24 314 @Southern Indiana L 68-77 21%    
  Thu, Jan 29 216 Southeast Missouri St. L 67-75 24%    
  Sat, Jan 31 240 Tennessee Martin L 64-71 27%    
  Thu, Feb 5 271 @Tennessee Tech L 65-77 15%    
  Sat, Feb 7 249 @Tennessee St. L 64-77 13%    
  Tue, Feb 10 329 Eastern Illinois L 66-68 44%    
  Thu, Feb 12 315 Arkansas Little Rock L 66-69 40%    
  Thu, Feb 19 314 Southern Indiana L 71-74 40%    
  Sat, Feb 21 325 Morehead St. L 68-70 43%    
  Thu, Feb 26 230 @SIU Edwardsville L 60-73 12%    
  Sat, Feb 28 236 Lindenwood L 68-75 26%    
Projected Record 5 - 23 5 - 15




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Ohio Valley Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.4 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.7 3rd
4th 0.1 0.4 0.7 0.2 0.0 1.4 4th
5th 0.0 0.5 1.0 0.4 0.0 2.0 5th
6th 0.1 0.6 1.6 0.8 0.1 3.2 6th
7th 0.1 0.9 2.4 1.6 0.2 5.1 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 1.3 3.1 2.5 0.5 0.0 7.5 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.6 2.4 5.0 3.8 0.8 0.0 12.6 9th
10th 0.0 0.4 2.2 5.4 7.4 5.0 1.2 0.1 21.6 10th
11th 1.9 6.1 10.1 11.9 9.4 4.5 1.1 0.1 45.1 11th
Total 1.9 6.1 10.5 14.1 15.3 14.4 12.5 9.1 6.3 4.3 2.6 1.4 0.7 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Total



Ohio Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1 100.0% 0.0    0.0
18-2 100.0% 0.0    0.0
17-3 100.0% 0.0    0.0
16-4 100.0% 0.0    0.0
15-5 65.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
14-6 35.3% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0
13-7 12.9% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 3.6% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 0.2% 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1 0.0% 0.0
18-2 0.0% 0.0
17-3 0.0% 0.0
16-4 0.0% 0.0 0.0
15-5 0.1% 25.0% 25.0% 16.0 0.0 0.1
14-6 0.2% 9.8% 9.8% 16.0 0.0 0.2
13-7 0.3% 5.0% 5.0% 16.0 0.0 0.3
12-8 0.7% 4.9% 4.9% 16.0 0.0 0.7
11-9 1.4% 3.4% 3.4% 16.0 0.0 1.3
10-10 2.6% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.0 2.5
9-11 4.3% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.0 4.3
8-12 6.3% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 6.3
7-13 9.1% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 9.1
6-14 12.5% 12.5
5-15 14.4% 14.4
4-16 15.3% 15.3
3-17 14.1% 14.1
2-18 10.5% 10.5
1-19 6.1% 6.1
0-20 1.9% 1.9
Total 100% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 16.0 0.2 99.8 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 1.6%