Kentucky
Southeastern
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating+15.1#21
Expected Predictive Rating+4.6#112
Pace73.6#84
Improvement-2.9#339

Offense
Total Offense+7.8#34
First Shot+7.2#24
After Offensive Rebound+0.6#148
Layup/Dunks+8.1#10
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.5#259
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.1#147
Freethrows-0.5#213
Improvement-2.1#334

Defense
Total Defense+7.4#19
First Shot+5.5#38
After Offensive Rebounds+1.8#72
Layups/Dunks+6.0#27
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.0#302
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.8#282
Freethrows+4.3#9
Improvement-0.7#250
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.5% 0.5% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 1.9% 1.9% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 12.1% 12.2% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 29.4% 29.4% 6.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 62.5% 62.6% 32.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 60.0% 60.0% 31.8%
Average Seed 6.8 6.8 8.4
.500 or above 79.1% 79.2% 44.8%
.500 or above in Conference 66.0% 66.1% 40.3%
Conference Champion 6.1% 6.1% 3.0%
Last Place in Conference 1.8% 1.8% 6.0%
First Four6.1% 6.0% 7.5%
First Round60.2% 60.3% 28.4%
Second Round42.4% 42.5% 20.9%
Sweet Sixteen18.5% 18.6% 4.5%
Elite Eight7.6% 7.6% 4.5%
Final Four3.1% 3.1% 0.0%
Championship Game1.2% 1.2% 0.0%
National Champion0.4% 0.4% 0.0%

Next Game: NC Central (Home) - 99.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 7 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a3 - 103 - 10
Quad 1b3 - 36 - 12
Quad 24 - 210 - 14
Quad 31 - 012 - 14
Quad 47 - 019 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Tue, Nov 4 254 Nicholls St. W 77-51 97%     1 - 0 +17.8 +1.6 +16.2
  Fri, Nov 7 211 Valparaiso W 107-59 97%     2 - 0 +41.7 +26.4 +12.2
  Tue, Nov 11 13 @Louisville L 88-96 27%     2 - 1 +13.3 +15.8 -1.7
  Fri, Nov 14 329 Eastern Illinois W 99-53 99%     3 - 1 +33.1 +24.8 +9.8
  Tue, Nov 18 12 Michigan St. L 66-83 37%     3 - 2 +1.5 +3.3 -1.5
  Fri, Nov 21 321 Loyola Maryland W 88-46 99%     4 - 2 +29.9 +5.8 +22.9
  Wed, Nov 26 271 Tennessee Tech W 104-54 98%     5 - 2 +41.3 +23.6 +15.8
  Tue, Dec 2 22 North Carolina L 64-67 62%     5 - 3 +9.0 +3.2 +5.5
  Fri, Dec 5 4 Gonzaga L 59-94 27%     5 - 4 -13.4 -3.7 -9.4
  Tue, Dec 9 350 NC Central W 88-57 99.8%   
  Sat, Dec 13 28 Indiana W 78-74 66%    
  Sat, Dec 20 16 St. John's L 79-81 42%    
  Tue, Dec 23 292 Bellarmine W 90-65 99%    
  Sat, Jan 3 10 @Alabama L 84-91 27%    
  Wed, Jan 7 37 Missouri W 82-77 68%    
  Sat, Jan 10 78 Mississippi St. W 83-72 84%    
  Wed, Jan 14 31 @LSU L 77-78 45%    
  Sat, Jan 17 17 @Tennessee L 72-76 35%    
  Wed, Jan 21 46 Texas W 82-75 75%    
  Sat, Jan 24 57 Mississippi W 78-70 77%    
  Tue, Jan 27 11 @Vanderbilt L 78-84 28%    
  Sat, Jan 31 20 @Arkansas L 77-80 40%    
  Wed, Feb 4 53 Oklahoma W 83-75 76%    
  Sat, Feb 7 17 Tennessee W 75-73 57%    
  Sat, Feb 14 14 @Florida L 76-82 30%    
  Tue, Feb 17 19 Georgia W 87-84 59%    
  Sat, Feb 21 26 @Auburn L 78-80 43%    
  Tue, Feb 24 87 @South Carolina W 77-71 71%    
  Sat, Feb 28 11 Vanderbilt L 81-82 48%    
  Tue, Mar 3 39 @Texas A&M W 81-80 51%    
  Sat, Mar 7 14 Florida W 79-78 50%    
Projected Record 18 - 13 10 - 8




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southeastern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 1.2 2.0 1.6 0.7 0.2 0.0 6.1 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 1.9 3.2 1.9 0.3 0.0 0.0 7.5 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.5 4.0 2.3 0.3 0.0 8.3 3rd
4th 0.0 0.7 4.1 3.3 0.5 0.0 8.6 4th
5th 0.2 2.8 4.6 0.9 0.0 8.5 5th
6th 0.0 1.4 5.1 2.1 0.1 8.7 6th
7th 0.0 0.3 3.8 3.9 0.3 8.3 7th
8th 0.0 1.8 5.1 1.3 0.0 8.2 8th
9th 0.0 0.6 4.0 3.0 0.2 7.7 9th
10th 0.1 2.1 4.2 0.7 0.0 7.1 10th
11th 0.0 1.0 3.4 1.7 0.1 6.2 11th
12th 0.0 0.4 2.2 2.4 0.3 5.3 12th
13th 0.2 1.2 2.0 0.7 0.0 4.1 13th
14th 0.0 0.1 0.7 1.4 0.7 0.1 2.9 14th
15th 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.7 0.6 0.1 1.7 15th
16th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.7 16th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.7 1.7 3.6 6.1 9.3 12.3 14.1 14.1 12.8 10.5 7.3 4.3 2.0 0.8 0.2 0.0 Total



Southeastern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
17-1 98.2% 0.2    0.2 0.0
16-2 96.1% 0.7    0.7 0.1
15-3 82.8% 1.6    1.1 0.5 0.1
14-4 47.9% 2.0    0.9 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0
13-5 16.8% 1.2    0.2 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
12-6 2.2% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0% 0.0    0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 6.1% 6.1 3.2 1.9 0.7 0.2 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.0% 0.0 0.0
17-1 0.2% 100.0% 38.6% 61.4% 1.7 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
16-2 0.8% 100.0% 27.2% 72.8% 2.4 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 100.0%
15-3 2.0% 100.0% 23.1% 76.9% 3.1 0.1 0.4 0.7 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0 100.0%
14-4 4.3% 100.0% 20.3% 79.7% 3.8 0.1 0.4 1.2 1.5 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0 100.0%
13-5 7.3% 100.0% 16.4% 83.5% 4.7 0.0 0.2 1.0 2.1 2.2 1.3 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0 99.9%
12-6 10.5% 99.3% 11.7% 87.5% 5.6 0.0 0.0 0.5 1.6 2.7 2.8 2.0 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 99.2%
11-7 12.8% 97.5% 8.2% 89.4% 6.7 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.8 2.8 3.5 2.2 1.0 0.4 0.1 0.3 97.3%
10-8 14.1% 87.8% 4.0% 83.9% 8.1 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.3 2.4 2.8 2.3 1.9 1.0 0.0 1.7 87.3%
9-9 14.1% 61.7% 2.9% 58.8% 9.4 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 1.3 1.8 2.3 2.2 0.2 0.0 5.4 60.6%
8-10 12.3% 27.6% 1.8% 25.8% 10.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.8 1.5 0.2 0.0 8.9 26.3%
7-11 9.3% 5.8% 1.0% 4.8% 10.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.0 0.0 8.7 4.9%
6-12 6.1% 1.1% 0.5% 0.6% 11.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 6.0 0.6%
5-13 3.6% 0.5% 0.5% 12.5 0.0 0.0 3.6
4-14 1.7% 0.2% 0.2% 15.0 0.0 1.7
3-15 0.7% 0.7
2-16 0.2% 0.2
1-17 0.1% 0.1
0-18 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 62.5% 6.4% 56.1% 6.8 0.5 1.4 3.8 6.4 8.3 8.9 9.1 7.3 5.7 5.5 5.1 0.4 0.0 0.0 37.5 60.0%