Florida
Southeastern
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating+18.0#14
Expected Predictive Rating+13.4#40
Pace75.5#44
Improvement+0.6#147

Offense
Total Offense+8.4#25
First Shot+4.0#71
After Offensive Rebound+4.4#11
Layup/Dunks+4.1#59
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.4#254
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.9#242
Freethrows+3.3#32
Improvement+0.3#151

Defense
Total Defense+9.6#10
First Shot+6.4#25
After Offensive Rebounds+3.2#21
Layups/Dunks+0.2#163
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.5#243
3 Pt Jumpshots+10.9#3
Freethrows-4.2#350
Improvement+0.2#170
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 1.0% 1.7% 0.6%
#1 Seed 6.8% 10.9% 4.1%
Top 2 Seed 19.2% 28.0% 13.3%
Top 4 Seed 52.4% 64.7% 44.2%
Top 6 Seed 75.8% 85.2% 69.5%
NCAA Tourney Bid 94.0% 97.5% 91.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 92.8% 96.9% 90.3%
Average Seed 4.5 3.9 5.0
.500 or above 97.4% 99.1% 96.3%
.500 or above in Conference 89.9% 92.9% 87.9%
Conference Champion 24.2% 28.9% 21.1%
Last Place in Conference 0.3% 0.2% 0.4%
First Four2.2% 1.1% 3.0%
First Round93.2% 97.1% 90.6%
Second Round78.9% 85.8% 74.2%
Sweet Sixteen47.4% 55.1% 42.3%
Elite Eight23.1% 28.6% 19.4%
Final Four10.8% 13.8% 8.7%
Championship Game4.8% 6.2% 3.9%
National Champion1.9% 2.7% 1.4%

Next Game: Connecticut (Neutral) - 39.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 4 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a4 - 64 - 6
Quad 1b6 - 39 - 9
Quad 26 - 215 - 11
Quad 33 - 018 - 11
Quad 45 - 022 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 5 Arizona L 87-93 39%     0 - 1 +15.0 +12.0 +3.9
  Thu, Nov 6 344 North Florida W 104-64 99%     1 - 1 +25.4 +8.9 +11.6
  Tue, Nov 11 101 Florida St. W 78-76 93%     2 - 1 +3.9 -3.6 +7.3
  Sun, Nov 16 32 Miami (FL) W 82-68 67%     3 - 1 +27.4 +9.6 +16.6
  Fri, Nov 21 283 Merrimack W 80-45 99%     4 - 1 +25.4 +8.8 +19.0
  Thu, Nov 27 47 TCU L 80-84 76%     4 - 2 +6.8 +7.5 -0.4
  Fri, Nov 28 65 Providence W 90-78 81%     5 - 2 +20.6 +14.6 +5.4
  Tue, Dec 2 3 @Duke L 66-67 24%     5 - 3 +24.5 +11.1 +13.4
  Tue, Dec 9 6 Connecticut L 71-74 40%    
  Sat, Dec 13 59 George Washington W 88-79 79%    
  Wed, Dec 17 357 St. Francis (PA) W 95-60 99.9%   
  Sun, Dec 21 179 Colgate W 86-64 98%    
  Mon, Dec 29 268 Dartmouth W 93-66 99%    
  Sat, Jan 3 37 @Missouri W 80-78 58%    
  Tue, Jan 6 19 Georgia W 89-83 70%    
  Sat, Jan 10 17 Tennessee W 77-72 67%    
  Tue, Jan 13 53 @Oklahoma W 82-77 67%    
  Sat, Jan 17 11 @Vanderbilt L 79-83 38%    
  Tue, Jan 20 31 LSU W 81-74 75%    
  Sat, Jan 24 26 Auburn W 83-76 73%    
  Wed, Jan 28 87 @South Carolina W 78-69 80%    
  Sun, Feb 1 10 Alabama W 89-87 59%    
  Sat, Feb 7 39 @Texas A&M W 82-79 61%    
  Wed, Feb 11 19 @Georgia L 85-86 48%    
  Sat, Feb 14 21 Kentucky W 82-76 70%    
  Tue, Feb 17 87 South Carolina W 81-66 91%    
  Sat, Feb 21 57 @Mississippi W 76-71 67%    
  Wed, Feb 25 46 @Texas W 80-76 64%    
  Sat, Feb 28 20 Arkansas W 82-76 70%    
  Tue, Mar 3 78 Mississippi St. W 85-71 89%    
  Sat, Mar 7 21 @Kentucky L 78-79 50%    
Projected Record 21 - 10 12 - 6




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southeastern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.4 2.5 6.1 7.5 4.9 2.3 0.5 24.2 1st
2nd 0.2 2.7 6.5 5.2 1.7 0.3 0.0 16.6 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.7 5.9 4.4 1.1 0.1 0.0 13.2 3rd
4th 0.6 4.3 4.4 0.9 0.1 10.3 4th
5th 0.1 2.3 4.5 1.2 0.0 8.1 5th
6th 0.0 0.7 3.6 2.0 0.1 6.5 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 2.0 2.8 0.4 0.0 5.4 7th
8th 0.0 0.7 2.7 0.9 0.0 4.4 8th
9th 0.1 1.5 1.6 0.1 0.0 3.4 9th
10th 0.0 0.6 1.6 0.4 2.6 10th
11th 0.2 1.0 0.8 0.0 1.9 11th
12th 0.1 0.5 0.9 0.1 1.6 12th
13th 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.3 0.0 1.0 13th
14th 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.6 14th
15th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3 15th
16th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 16th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.4 2.9 4.9 7.5 10.4 13.2 14.7 14.3 12.6 9.3 5.2 2.3 0.5 Total



Southeastern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.5    0.5
17-1 99.4% 2.3    2.2 0.1
16-2 94.7% 4.9    4.1 0.7 0.0
15-3 80.8% 7.5    4.9 2.3 0.3 0.0
14-4 49.0% 6.1    2.6 2.6 0.9 0.1 0.0
13-5 17.3% 2.5    0.4 1.0 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0
12-6 2.6% 0.4    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
11-7 0.0% 0.0    0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 24.2% 24.2 14.8 6.7 2.0 0.5 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.5% 100.0% 49.0% 51.0% 1.3 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
17-1 2.3% 100.0% 40.1% 59.9% 1.5 1.2 0.9 0.1 0.0 100.0%
16-2 5.2% 100.0% 34.6% 65.4% 1.8 2.0 2.2 0.8 0.1 0.0 100.0%
15-3 9.3% 100.0% 29.4% 70.6% 2.3 1.8 3.7 2.9 0.9 0.1 100.0%
14-4 12.6% 100.0% 24.3% 75.7% 2.9 1.0 3.2 4.9 2.7 0.6 0.1 100.0%
13-5 14.3% 100.0% 20.6% 79.4% 3.6 0.3 1.6 4.5 4.8 2.4 0.5 0.1 100.0%
12-6 14.7% 100.0% 14.3% 85.7% 4.5 0.1 0.5 2.5 4.6 4.3 2.0 0.7 0.1 0.0 100.0%
11-7 13.2% 99.9% 9.1% 90.7% 5.4 0.0 0.1 0.8 2.4 3.9 3.5 1.9 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0 99.9%
10-8 10.4% 99.0% 6.6% 92.4% 6.4 0.0 0.1 0.8 2.0 2.5 2.6 1.5 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.1 99.0%
9-9 7.5% 94.0% 3.9% 90.1% 7.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.0 1.5 1.5 1.3 0.9 0.4 0.0 0.5 93.8%
8-10 4.9% 73.0% 2.7% 70.3% 9.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.8 0.9 0.8 0.1 1.3 72.3%
7-11 2.9% 35.7% 1.6% 34.0% 10.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.1 1.8 34.6%
6-12 1.4% 6.0% 0.2% 5.8% 10.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 1.3 5.8%
5-13 0.6% 1.5% 1.5% 11.0 0.0 0.6 1.5%
4-14 0.2% 0.2
3-15 0.1% 0.1
2-16 0.0% 0.0
1-17 0.0% 0.0
0-18
Total 100% 94.0% 16.2% 77.9% 4.5 6.8 12.4 16.8 16.4 13.8 9.6 7.0 4.1 2.9 2.3 1.8 0.2 6.0 92.8%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 1.1 89.2 10.8