Preseason Rankings
Florida
Southeastern
2025-26
Overall
Predictive Rating+21.1#5
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace72.7#63
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+12.4#2
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+8.7#12
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 7.3% 9.5% 3.8%
#1 Seed 26.4% 32.4% 16.9%
Top 2 Seed 47.9% 56.3% 34.4%
Top 4 Seed 72.7% 80.7% 59.9%
Top 6 Seed 85.5% 90.9% 76.7%
NCAA Tourney Bid 95.4% 97.7% 91.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 94.0% 96.8% 90.0%
Average Seed 3.2 2.8 3.9
.500 or above 97.6% 99.0% 95.4%
.500 or above in Conference 92.5% 94.8% 88.8%
Conference Champion 35.2% 40.7% 26.5%
Last Place in Conference 0.3% 0.2% 0.5%
First Four1.6% 0.9% 2.7%
First Round94.7% 97.3% 90.7%
Second Round86.7% 91.2% 79.5%
Sweet Sixteen61.0% 66.9% 51.6%
Elite Eight37.5% 42.7% 29.2%
Final Four21.3% 25.2% 15.2%
Championship Game11.5% 14.0% 7.7%
National Champion6.2% 7.8% 3.7%

Next Game: Arizona (Neutral) - 61.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 2 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a5 - 55 - 5
Quad 1b5 - 211 - 7
Quad 26 - 117 - 8
Quad 33 - 020 - 8
Quad 45 - 024 - 8


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 03, 2025 10   Arizona W 82-79 61%    
  Nov 06, 2025 330   North Florida W 101-67 99.9%   
  Nov 11, 2025 78   Florida St. W 86-69 94%    
  Nov 16, 2025 56   Miami (FL) W 83-72 84%    
  Nov 21, 2025 257   Merrimack W 83-54 99%    
  Nov 27, 2025 55   TCU W 78-67 84%    
  Dec 02, 2025 3   @ Duke L 72-76 36%    
  Dec 09, 2025 4   Connecticut L 72-73 48%    
  Dec 13, 2025 85   George Washington W 83-68 89%    
  Dec 17, 2025 344   St. Francis (PA) W 92-56 99.9%   
  Dec 21, 2025 216   Colgate W 88-61 99%    
  Dec 29, 2025 230   Dartmouth W 92-64 99%    
  Jan 03, 2026 37   @ Missouri W 81-76 66%    
  Jan 06, 2026 51   Georgia W 81-68 87%    
  Jan 10, 2026 16   Tennessee W 73-66 72%    
  Jan 13, 2026 47   @ Oklahoma W 81-74 71%    
  Jan 17, 2026 41   @ Vanderbilt W 82-76 68%    
  Jan 20, 2026 52   LSU W 83-69 87%    
  Jan 24, 2026 22   Auburn W 81-73 75%    
  Jan 28, 2026 70   @ South Carolina W 77-67 79%    
  Feb 01, 2026 18   Alabama W 90-83 73%    
  Feb 07, 2026 35   @ Texas A&M W 77-72 65%    
  Feb 11, 2026 51   @ Georgia W 78-71 73%    
  Feb 14, 2026 7   Kentucky W 83-78 65%    
  Feb 17, 2026 70   South Carolina W 80-64 90%    
  Feb 21, 2026 30   @ Mississippi W 78-74 63%    
  Feb 25, 2026 36   @ Texas W 78-73 66%    
  Feb 28, 2026 17   Arkansas W 81-74 72%    
  Mar 03, 2026 33   Mississippi St. W 82-72 80%    
  Mar 07, 2026 7   @ Kentucky L 80-81 46%    
Projected Record 23 - 7 13 - 5




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southeastern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.2 1.4 5.0 8.9 10.0 7.0 2.8 35.2 1st
2nd 0.1 1.5 5.1 6.6 3.7 1.0 0.0 18.1 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.9 4.1 5.0 2.0 0.3 0.0 12.3 3rd
4th 0.3 2.8 3.8 1.5 0.1 8.5 4th
5th 0.1 1.4 3.5 1.5 0.2 6.6 5th
6th 0.0 0.4 2.4 1.6 0.3 0.0 4.8 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 1.3 1.8 0.3 0.0 3.6 7th
8th 0.0 0.6 1.7 0.6 0.0 3.0 8th
9th 0.2 1.2 1.0 0.0 2.4 9th
10th 0.0 0.4 1.1 0.2 0.0 1.7 10th
11th 0.0 0.2 0.7 0.4 0.0 1.4 11th
12th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.1 0.9 12th
13th 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.7 13th
14th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.5 14th
15th 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.3 15th
16th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 16th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 1.1 1.8 3.5 4.7 6.7 9.2 11.3 13.2 13.7 12.9 11.0 7.0 2.8 Total



Southeastern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 2.8    2.8
17-1 99.5% 7.0    6.6 0.4
16-2 90.9% 10.0    8.0 1.9 0.1
15-3 69.0% 8.9    5.1 3.2 0.5 0.0
14-4 36.6% 5.0    1.8 2.0 0.9 0.2 0.0 0.0
13-5 10.8% 1.4    0.2 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0
12-6 1.3% 0.2    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 35.2% 35.2 24.5 8.2 2.0 0.4 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 2.8% 100.0% 60.4% 39.6% 1.1 2.4 0.4 0.0 100.0%
17-1 7.0% 100.0% 51.2% 48.8% 1.2 5.7 1.3 0.0 100.0%
16-2 11.0% 100.0% 40.2% 59.8% 1.4 7.1 3.4 0.4 0.0 100.0%
15-3 12.9% 100.0% 33.6% 66.4% 1.7 6.1 5.0 1.4 0.3 0.0 100.0%
14-4 13.7% 100.0% 26.3% 73.7% 2.3 3.3 5.6 3.4 1.2 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
13-5 13.2% 100.0% 19.9% 80.1% 2.9 1.4 3.7 4.3 2.5 1.0 0.3 0.1 0.0 100.0%
12-6 11.3% 99.9% 15.3% 84.6% 3.8 0.4 1.6 3.0 3.1 1.9 0.9 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.9%
11-7 9.2% 99.5% 8.3% 91.1% 4.9 0.0 0.4 1.3 2.3 2.2 1.6 0.7 0.4 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 99.4%
10-8 6.7% 97.6% 5.4% 92.1% 6.0 0.1 0.4 0.9 1.4 1.4 1.1 0.7 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.2 97.4%
9-9 4.7% 93.9% 3.0% 90.9% 7.2 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.3 93.7%
8-10 3.5% 72.6% 2.9% 69.7% 8.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.6 0.4 0.0 1.0 71.8%
7-11 1.8% 39.0% 1.1% 37.9% 9.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.0 0.0 1.1 38.3%
6-12 1.1% 13.9% 0.0% 13.9% 10.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 1.0 13.9%
5-13 0.6% 2.7% 2.7% 10.5 0.0 0.0 0.6 2.7%
4-14 0.3% 0.3
3-15 0.1% 0.1
2-16 0.0% 0.0
1-17 0.0% 0.0
0-18 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 95.4% 23.4% 72.0% 3.2 26.4 21.4 14.4 10.5 7.5 5.3 3.3 2.4 1.7 1.5 1.0 0.0 0.0 4.6 94.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.6% 100.0% 1.1 93.9 6.1
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.1% 100.0% 1.2 84.6 15.4
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.1% 100.0% 1.0 96.0 4.0