Preseason Rankings
Merrimack
Metro Atlantic Athletic
2025-26
Overall
Predictive Rating-5.1#257
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace62.7#321
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense-6.0#334
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+0.9#135
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 8.4% 11.9% 6.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 14.5 15.0
.500 or above 41.8% 60.4% 33.7%
.500 or above in Conference 60.5% 72.4% 55.2%
Conference Champion 9.6% 14.2% 7.7%
Last Place in Conference 5.1% 2.6% 6.2%
First Four1.7% 1.5% 1.8%
First Round8.4% 12.0% 6.8%
Second Round0.2% 0.4% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: South Dakota St. (Neutral) - 30.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 2
Quad 20 - 10 - 3
Quad 32 - 62 - 9
Quad 413 - 815 - 18


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 03, 2025 151   South Dakota St. L 65-70 31%    
  Nov 06, 2025 22   @ Auburn L 54-78 1%    
  Nov 11, 2025 274   @ Tarleton St. L 59-61 43%    
  Nov 15, 2025 277   @ Boston University L 59-61 44%    
  Nov 19, 2025 290   Maine W 63-58 68%    
  Nov 21, 2025 5   @ Florida L 54-83 1%    
  Nov 28, 2025 278   @ Penn L 65-67 44%    
  Nov 29, 2025 178   Hofstra L 57-61 37%    
  Nov 30, 2025 196   La Salle L 64-67 40%    
  Dec 04, 2025 313   Rider W 65-59 72%    
  Dec 07, 2025 319   Fairfield W 67-60 73%    
  Dec 10, 2025 171   @ Princeton L 60-67 27%    
  Dec 14, 2025 205   @ Vermont L 56-62 32%    
  Dec 29, 2025 254   @ Sacred Heart L 67-70 40%    
  Jan 02, 2026 269   Mount St. Mary's W 66-62 63%    
  Jan 04, 2026 260   Manhattan W 68-65 61%    
  Jan 09, 2026 222   @ Siena L 62-67 35%    
  Jan 11, 2026 297   @ St. Peter's L 58-59 48%    
  Jan 17, 2026 215   Quinnipiac W 69-68 54%    
  Jan 19, 2026 237   @ Marist L 56-60 37%    
  Jan 22, 2026 199   @ Iona L 62-68 32%    
  Jan 24, 2026 297   St. Peter's W 61-56 67%    
  Feb 01, 2026 254   Sacred Heart W 70-67 59%    
  Feb 05, 2026 269   @ Mount St. Mary's L 63-65 42%    
  Feb 07, 2026 313   @ Rider W 63-62 51%    
  Feb 12, 2026 237   Marist W 59-57 58%    
  Feb 15, 2026 215   @ Quinnipiac L 66-71 35%    
  Feb 20, 2026 222   Siena W 65-64 54%    
  Feb 22, 2026 199   Iona W 66-65 51%    
  Feb 27, 2026 346   @ Canisius W 66-62 62%    
  Mar 01, 2026 335   @ Niagara W 63-61 57%    
Projected Record 14 - 17 11 - 9




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Metro Atlantic Athletic Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 0.8 1.8 2.6 2.2 1.3 0.6 0.1 9.6 1st
2nd 0.2 1.5 3.0 2.9 1.5 0.4 0.0 9.4 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.2 1.6 3.6 2.9 0.9 0.1 0.0 9.3 3rd
4th 0.2 1.6 3.9 2.7 0.8 0.1 0.0 9.2 4th
5th 0.1 1.4 3.7 3.2 0.7 0.0 9.2 5th
6th 0.1 0.9 3.5 3.1 0.8 0.1 8.6 6th
7th 0.0 0.7 3.1 3.5 1.1 0.1 8.5 7th
8th 0.0 0.5 2.5 3.6 1.3 0.1 8.1 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.5 2.2 3.4 1.7 0.2 0.0 7.9 9th
10th 0.0 0.4 1.8 2.9 1.6 0.2 0.0 6.9 10th
11th 0.1 0.5 1.5 2.1 1.4 0.2 0.0 5.7 11th
12th 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.3 1.6 0.9 0.2 0.0 4.6 12th
13th 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.8 0.7 0.4 0.1 0.0 2.9 13th
Total 0.0 0.3 0.6 1.5 2.5 3.9 5.4 7.2 8.5 9.6 10.0 9.9 9.9 8.7 7.5 5.7 4.1 2.6 1.4 0.6 0.1 Total



Metro Atlantic Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
19-1 100.0% 0.6    0.6 0.0
18-2 97.3% 1.3    1.2 0.1
17-3 84.8% 2.2    1.8 0.4 0.0
16-4 62.1% 2.6    1.6 0.9 0.1 0.0
15-5 32.4% 1.8    0.8 0.7 0.2 0.1 0.0
14-6 11.1% 0.8    0.2 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0
13-7 1.8% 0.2    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0% 0.0    0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 9.6% 9.6 6.2 2.5 0.7 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.1% 46.8% 46.8% 11.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
19-1 0.6% 44.5% 44.5% 12.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.3
18-2 1.4% 39.4% 39.4% 13.3 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.8
17-3 2.6% 32.8% 32.8% 13.8 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.0 1.8
16-4 4.1% 26.6% 26.6% 14.7 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.1 3.0
15-5 5.7% 21.9% 21.9% 15.6 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.6 0.2 4.4
14-6 7.5% 16.8% 16.8% 16.2 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.6 0.4 6.2
13-7 8.7% 12.9% 12.9% 17.5 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.6 7.6
12-8 9.9% 8.9% 8.9% 18.6 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.6 9.0
11-9 9.9% 5.3% 5.3% 18.4 0.0 0.1 0.5 9.3
10-10 10.0% 3.1% 3.1% 18.0 0.0 0.3 9.7
9-11 9.6% 1.5% 1.5% 16.8 0.0 0.2 9.5
8-12 8.5% 0.8% 0.8% 17.0 0.1 8.4
7-13 7.2% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.0 7.2
6-14 5.4% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 5.4
5-15 3.9% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 3.9
4-16 2.5% 2.5
3-17 1.5% 1.5
2-18 0.6% 0.6
1-19 0.3% 0.3
0-20 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 8.4% 8.4% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.9 1.9 2.9 3.0 91.6 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.0%