Niagara
Metro Atlantic Athletic
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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All team stats adjusted for opponents. See methodology page for details.

Predictive Rating -11.6 333
Results Rating -13.2 345
Consistency 0.12 47
Pace 58.7 365
Improvement +4.6 37

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense D 323 C- F D F+ B
Defense D 322 D D D+ C- C

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 43% 55 D+ 54% 289 +0.9 143
2 Pt. Jumpers 33% 229 C 39% 156 -1.8 270
Three Pointers 41% 192 C 34% 174 -0.1 181
Shot Selection/Accuracy B +0.9 68 C- -1.6 235
1st FG Attempt C- 1.01 196
Second Chance F+ 21.7% 353 F+ 0.87 350 F 0.19 360
Opponents' Steals D+ 10.4% 275
Other Turnovers D- 8.9% 339
Turnovers D 19.3% 329
Freethrows F+ 0.23 353 C 72% 190 F+ 0.17 351
Total Offense D -6.1 323

Assists Opponents' Blocks
Close Shots B- 54% 93 C- 11.5% 217
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots D 14% 331 D+ 6.6% 287
Three Pointers B- 88% 100 B 0.4% 57
Total B- 59% 101 C- 6.2% 256


Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 37% 238 D+ 62% 293 +0.6 201
2 Pt. Jumpers 20% 188 D+ 41% 293 +0.4 225
Three Pointers 43% 112 D+ 36% 284 +2.4 298
Shot Selection/Accuracy C +0.0 152 D +3.4 310
1st FG Attempt D 1.09 291
Second Chance D 33.9% 315 C- 1.07 244 D 0.36 300
Turnovers from Steals D+ 8.1% 284
Other Turnovers C- 7.1% 209
Turnovers D+ 15.2% 274
Freethrows C 0.30 169 F 77% 359 C- 0.23 228
Total Defense D -5.5 322

Assists Blocks
Close Shots B- 45% 107 D+ 8.3% 286
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots D+ 32% 296 C- 3.8% 232
Three Pointers D+ 86% 257 C+ 1.1% 123
Total C 56% 194 D+ 4.3% 285

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 20.0 362 17.2 156
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.11 342 0.19 243
Consistency 0.11 99 0.11 90
Improvement +3.8 36 +0.9 146

NCAA Tournament Selection
At-Large Selection Status Out of Consideration
Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Prediction Ranges
Pessimistic
5th Percentile 		Expected
50th Percentile 		Optimistic
95th Percentile
Predictive Rating Rank 334 332 330
Results Rating Rank 346 344 343
Conference Record 5 - 15 5 - 15 5 - 15
Conference Finish 11 11 11
NCAA Tourney Seed None None None
NCAA Tourney Finish None None None

NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% n/a n/a
#1 Seed 0% n/a n/a
Top 2 Seed 0% n/a n/a
Top 4 Seed 0% n/a n/a
Top 6 Seed 0% n/a n/a
NCAA Tourney Bid 0% n/a n/a
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% n/a n/a
Average Seed n/a n/a n/a
.500 or above 0% n/a n/a
.500 or above in Conference 0% 0% 0.0%
Conference Champion 0% 0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0.0%
First Four0% n/a n/a
First Round0% n/a n/a
Second Round0% n/a n/a
Sweet Sixteen0% n/a n/a
Elite Eight0% n/a n/a
Final Four0% n/a n/a
Championship Game0% n/a n/a
National Champion0% n/a n/a

Projected Record by Quadrant
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 10 - 3
Quad 30 - 50 - 8
Quad 47 - 147 - 22


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 120 @Duquesne L 63 - 83 6% -17  0% 0 - 1 D- -14 F -10 D- F F D+ -4 F D+ A+
 Sat, Nov 8 357 @Binghamton W 67 - 59 55% +0  43% 1 - 1 D+ -5 F+ -9 F D C- B +5 A+ F F
 Mon, Nov 10 361 Delaware St. W 68 - 57 82% +8  90% 2 - 1 D -10 C- -1 A F B+ D- -7 C- F F
 Mon, Nov 17 298 @Le Moyne L 68 - 74 26% -4  7% 2 - 2 D -11 D -6 C+ F D D -6 F+ A+ C-
 Fri, Nov 21 1 @Duke L 42 - 100 0% -30  0% 2 - 3 F -28 F -15 F C F F -18 F F D+
 Sat, Nov 22 182 Howard L 70 - 80 17% +4  75% 2 - 4 D- -12 D- -8 C- B- F C- -3 C C C
 Sat, Nov 29 237 Detroit Mercy L 66 - 70 34% -6  5% 2 - 5 D -11 F+ -10 D+ F B C- -2 A- F+ D
 Fri, Dec 5 208 @Siena L 54 - 83 13% -22  0% 2 - 6 0 - 1 F -28 F -17 F F A+ F -13 F D- D-
 Sun, Dec 7 229 @St. Peter's L 43 - 71 16% -13  0% 2 - 7 0 - 2 F -29 F -24 F F F F+ -9 D F D-
 Sat, Dec 13 348 @Morgan St. L 73 - 81 45% -4  6% 2 - 8 F -18 D -5 D+ D+ C+ F -13 F F A+
 Mon, Dec 15 49 @Virginia Commonwealth L 58 - 84 2% -8  6% 2 - 9 D- -12 D -5 D F+ B- F+ -10 F B C+
 Fri, Jan 2 287 Sacred Heart W 64 - 61 45% +9  99% 3 - 9 1 - 2 D+ -7 D -6 B+ F D+ C -1 A F A+
 Sun, Jan 4 264 Fairfield L 75 - 83 39% -5  6% 3 - 10 1 - 3 F+ -17 B +6 A+ F C+ F -24 F F F
 Fri, Jan 9 241 @Iona L 53 - 71 17% -16  1% 3 - 11 1 - 4 F -19 F -13 F F A F+ -9 D D- D-
 Sun, Jan 11 323 @Manhattan L 70 - 79 35% +1  52% 3 - 12 1 - 5 F+ -17 C -0 A- F D+ F -18 C+ F F
 Wed, Jan 14 338 @Canisius W 59 - 54 41% +3  76% 4 - 12 2 - 5 C- -4 D -6 D+ F D B- +3 B+ C- C-
 Mon, Jan 19 272 Mount St. Mary's L 58 - 68 41% -1  54% 4 - 13 2 - 6 F -19 F -10 F A+ F F -10 D B F
 Thu, Jan 22 264 @Fairfield L 61 - 62 20% -3  8% 4 - 14 2 - 7 C- -4 F -12 D+ F D- A- +8 B- D+ B
 Sat, Jan 24 287 @Sacred Heart L 70 - 71 24% +5  95% 4 - 15 2 - 8 D+ -5 D -6 B+ B F C+ +0 F+ A+ F
 Fri, Jan 30 208 Siena L 79 - 82 28% -3  19% 4 - 16 2 - 9 D -8 A- +10 A+ C C+ F -18 F D C-
 Sun, Feb 1 201 Marist L 46 - 58 27% -5  2% 4 - 17 2 - 10 F+ -17 F -20 F F F C+ +1 B+ B- F+
 Tue, Feb 3 338 Canisius W 65 - 56 64% +8  92% 5 - 17 3 - 10 D+ -6 C- -1 A+ F F D+ -3 C- C+ F
 Sat, Feb 7 215 @Quinnipiac L 55 - 56 14% -5  12% 5 - 18 3 - 11 C -1 D- -8 D+ D+ F B+ +7 B A+ A-
 Fri, Feb 13 323 Manhattan L 69 - 76 57% -5  11% 5 - 19 3 - 12 F -21 F+ -9 B F D F -13 F F C
 Sun, Feb 15 241 Iona W 70 - 68 34% +1  55% 6 - 19 4 - 12 D+ -5 A- +10 A+ F A- F -15 C+ F F
 Fri, Feb 20 272 @Mount St. Mary's L 63 - 76 21% -7  11% 6 - 20 4 - 13 F+ -16 F -11 F+ F+ F D -6 D+ F C-
 Sun, Feb 22 356 @Rider L 62 - 67 52% +0  54% 6 - 21 4 - 14 F+ -17 F -14 B- F F D+ -4 D- B- C
 Fri, Feb 27 215 Quinnipiac W 78 - 76 OT 30% -1  19% 7 - 21 5 - 14 C- -4 C+ +4 B- B- B D- -8 C D- F
 Sun, Mar 1 173 Merrimack L 66 - 73 23% -4  23% 7 - 22 5 - 15 D -11 C- -0 B B+ F F -12 F F B
Totals 7 - 22 5 - 15 -12 D -6 A+ C- B D -6 C C F+



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings D D+ C C C- 43% 33% 41% B C- F+ F+ F D F+ C F+ D D+ D+ D+ D 37% 20% 43% C D D C- D D+ C F C-
1.00 54% 39% 34% -2 +1 1.01 22% 0.9 .19 19% .23 72% .17 1.17 62% 41% 36% +3 0 1.09 34% 1.1 .36 15% .30 77% .18
Nov
3		 Duquesne F C+ C+ F F+ 47% 23% 30% B- D- F F F F A+ B+ A+ D+ F A+ F F 39% 12% 49% B- F B F D+ A+ A+ D- A
0.89 60% 40% 15% -7 0 0.88 19% 0.7 .13 23% .49 78% .38 1.17 84% 17% 42% +13 +1 1.31 27% 1.3 .35 24% .24 77% .19
Nov
8		 Binghamton F+ D D- F F 47% 18% 35% C F D C- D C- C- C C- B A- A+ A+ A+ 53% 22% 24% F+ A+ F D F F C- B+ C+
1.05 54% 33% 22% -9 +1 0.86 28% 1.0 .28 13% .30 71% .22 0.92 46% 18% 25% -14 +1 0.76 30% 0.9 .27 14% .37 70% .26
Nov
10		 Delaware St. C- D D+ A+ A- 55% 7% 39% A A F F F B+ F+ F F D- A D- B+ C 36% 26% 38% F+ C- C+ F F F B+ B- B+
1.14 58% 33% 53% +11 +3 1.30 12% 0.7 .08 15% .28 64% .18 0.96 41% 42% 28% -9 -1 0.83 23% 1.3 .29 13% .23 67% .15
Nov
17		 Le Moyne D F F A+ B- 29% 20% 51% D+ C+ F D+ F D F+ B+ D- D D+ A- F F 29% 22% 49% A- F+ C+ A+ A+ C- F F F
1.01 33% 20% 50% +1 -1 1.04 18% 1.0 .18 16% .25 79% .20 1.10 62% 30% 45% +8 -1 1.16 23% 0.3 .07 19% .41 91% .37
Nov
21		 Duke F F F F F 29% 15% 56% B+ F C- B- C F A+ F B+ F D+ F F F 31% 6% 63% B F F+ F F D+ F F+ F
0.65 42% 17% 22% -18 0 0.66 19% 0.9 .17 26% .31 60% .19 1.54 67% 67% 53% +23 +1 1.50 46% 1.5 .67 14% .43 79% .34
Nov
22		 Howard D- F A+ F D+ 60% 15% 26% B C- C- A B- F A+ C- A+ C- A F C+ C+ 45% 12% 43% D C B- D- C C F B F
0.93 46% 71% 25% -5 +2 0.96 31% 1.3 .41 29% .54 69% .37 1.06 42% 60% 33% -5 +2 0.95 32% 1.2 .38 20% .71 70% .50
Nov
29		 Detroit Mercy F+ A- A+ F D+ 36% 13% 51% C D+ F A+ F B F F F C- C+ D+ A+ A 33% 31% 36% D A- F+ D F+ D F C+ F
1.01 68% 57% 22% -3 +1 0.98 12% 1.8 .21 12% .24 64% .16 1.07 53% 43% 19% -8 -2 0.82 38% 1.0 .38 14% .53 77% .41
Dec
5		 Siena F F A F F 50% 11% 39% A F F D- F A+ F F F F D F F F 37% 23% 40% D F D D D- D- B B B+
0.83 44% 50% 19% -14 +2 0.78 17% 0.9 .15 11% .19 55% .10 1.27 63% 50% 43% +10 0 1.21 32% 1.1 .36 14% .25 71% .18
Dec
7		 St. Peter's F D+ F F F 38% 23% 38% D+ F D- F F F F A+ D+ F+ A+ F F D 40% 20% 40% D+ D C+ F F D- B D B-
0.71 53% 11% 20% -16 0 0.69 30% 0.8 .23 30% .33 86% .28 1.17 39% 56% 39% -1 0 1.00 33% 1.5 .50 15% .27 79% .21
Dec
13		 Morgan St. D C- A D D 50% 8% 42% B- D+ F A+ D+ C+ F B- F+ F F F F F 24% 29% 47% B F F D+ F A+ F F F
1.09 58% 50% 30% -1 +2 1.04 14% 2.8 .38 13% .33 74% .24 1.21 78% 73% 44% +22 -2 1.42 56% 0.9 .50 34% .48 86% .41
Dec
15		 Virginia Commonwealth D F+ F+ C D- 54% 19% 28% B D A F F+ B- F A+ F F+ A- C+ F F 27% 11% 62% B F D+ A B C+ C- A B-
0.92 45% 30% 33% -9 +1 0.87 38% 0.4 .17 16% .15 88% .13 1.34 50% 40% 54% +16 0 1.36 37% 0.9 .33 16% .40 67% .26
Jan
2		 Sacred Heart D C+ C+ A+ A- 37% 12% 51% C+ B+ F F F D+ C- D- C- C C- A+ A+ A+ 44% 14% 42% F+ A F A F A+ F F+ F
1.10 63% 40% 45% +11 +1 1.26 19% 0.6 .12 15% .24 67% .16 1.05 58% 17% 22% -10 +1 0.84 46% 0.8 .37 24% .41 83% .34
Jan
4		 Fairfield B B+ A+ A+ A 59% 4% 37% A A+ D+ F F C+ F A+ F F D- F F F 44% 25% 31% C F F D+ F F F F F
1.24 67% 50% 42% +10 +4 1.29 27% 0.7 .19 15% .08 100% .08 1.37 62% 50% 40% +7 0 1.17 41% 1.0 .41 8% .38 90% .34
Jan
9		 Iona F D+ F F F 32% 22% 46% D+ F F+ F F A F A- F+ F+ F F A- D 34% 15% 51% C- D F A D- D- C+ F D
0.87 56% 18% 26% -10 -1 0.80 26% 0.6 .15 12% .17 78% .13 1.17 69% 57% 29% +3 0 1.09 39% 0.8 .33 15% .25 85% .21
Jan
11		 Manhattan C F+ A+ A+ B+ 49% 9% 43% A A- F F F D+ F A+ F F D A- A+ C+ 44% 29% 27% C+ C+ F F F F F F F
1.16 52% 75% 50% +10 +2 1.28 28% 0.5 .14 17% .14 86% .12 1.31 60% 31% 25% -5 -1 0.91 37% 1.7 .63 8% .38 90% .34
Jan
14		 Canisius D D+ F B- D 56% 17% 27% B+ D+ D F F D A- A- A B- B D- A+ A- 25% 16% 59% C- B+ F A+ C- C- F+ D F+
1.02 57% 29% 36% -2 +2 1.02 26% 0.4 .10 17% .37 78% .29 0.93 45% 43% 23% -12 0 0.77 41% 0.6 .26 19% .34 75% .25
Jan
19		 Mount St. Mary's F F D- F F 45% 14% 41% A- F A+ A+ A+ F D+ F D- F A F D- D+ 51% 9% 40% F+ D D- A+ B F F D- F
0.95 25% 33% 22% -23 +1 0.59 42% 1.3 .56 21% .31 67% .21 1.11 46% 75% 37% -1 +2 1.04 34% 0.7 .25 16% .41 71% .29
Jan
22		 Fairfield F D- A+ C D 54% 8% 38% B+ D+ F F F D- F C+ F A- A F B B- 41% 20% 39% D+ B- C- D+ D+ B A A+ A+
0.94 50% 50% 35% -3 +3 1.02 18% 0.5 .09 18% .15 75% .11 0.95 43% 50% 30% -6 0 0.90 34% 1.0 .34 18% .17 56% .09
Jan
24		 Sacred Heart D A- D A B+ 51% 13% 36% B B+ F A+ B F F F F C+ F F D F 25% 22% 53% B+ F+ A+ A+ A+ F C- A B-
1.06 71% 33% 41% +10 +2 1.26 21% 2.0 .42 21% .13 14% .02 1.08 69% 45% 37% +7 -1 1.14 13% 0.5 .06 14% .28 69% .19
Jan
30		 Siena A- C- A A+ A+ 33% 16% 51% C+ A+ D- A+ C C+ D+ F F F F F C- F 26% 38% 36% A+ F A+ F D C- F F F
1.25 56% 50% 52% +15 0 1.33 25% 1.3 .32 16% .25 54% .13 1.30 91% 63% 33% +18 -3 1.31 20% 1.8 .35 16% .43 87% .38
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Feb
1		 Marist F F F A+ F 44% 24% 31% B- F C F F F F D- F C+ C C A+ B- 31% 44% 24% A+ B+ A+ F B- F+ D F F+
0.75 30% 9% 43% -15 0 0.71 30% 0.5 .16 25% .24 64% .15 0.95 57% 40% 18% -5 -4 0.84 13% 1.8 .23 13% .28 87% .24
Feb
3		 Canisius C- A- A A+ A+ 50% 5% 45% A+ A+ F+ F F F F A- F D+ D F A+ C 40% 17% 44% F+ C- A+ F C+ F A+ F A-
1.13 70% 50% 44% +14 +3 1.35 23% 0.8 .18 21% .20 78% .15 0.97 58% 63% 19% -6 +1 0.92 16% 1.4 .23 14% .16 88% .14
Feb
7		 Quinnipiac D- B- C- D C- 32% 22% 46% D D+ C+ F D+ F D- D+ D- B+ A+ A+ F B+ 36% 18% 45% D+ B F A+ A+ A- D F+ F+
0.93 62% 33% 32% -2 -1 0.98 35% 0.8 .29 25% .23 70% .16 0.95 38% 13% 40% -8 0 0.86 42% 0.4 .18 20% .34 75% .25
Feb
13		 Manhattan F+ A+ A+ D- B 43% 15% 41% B- B F F F D B+ A A F F A+ F F 27% 29% 44% A- F D+ F F C B D- B-
1.09 75% 57% 32% +9 +1 1.22 16% 0.5 .08 17% .31 81% .25 1.20 77% 14% 48% +7 -2 1.13 29% 1.4 .42 16% .24 85% .21
Feb
15		 Iona A- C- C A+ A+ 44% 19% 37% C+ A+ F F F A- B A+ A F F D- A C 20% 20% 59% A C+ F F F F F F+ F
1.25 58% 38% 56% +12 +1 1.28 16% 0.5 .08 12% .31 87% .26 1.21 78% 44% 27% -1 -1 0.98 34% 1.5 .53 12% .35 76% .26
Feb
20		 Mount St. Mary's F D A F F+ 27% 22% 51% D+ F+ D+ F F+ F A+ B+ A+ D D+ A+ B- C- 62% 12% 26% F D+ F F F C- C B+ C+
0.90 50% 50% 22% -9 -1 0.82 26% 0.8 .20 21% .51 79% .40 1.09 61% 17% 31% -2 +3 1.04 37% 1.4 .50 21% .29 63% .18
Feb
22		 Rider F A F B+ B- 55% 11% 34% B- B- F F F F D- F F D+ F A+ D- F+ 34% 43% 23% A- D- F+ A+ B- C F+ F F
0.96 71% 20% 40% +8 +2 1.23 16% 0.5 .08 28% .23 55% .13 1.03 69% 25% 36% -1 -3 0.94 36% 0.7 .24 17% .33 83% .28
Feb
27		 Quinnipiac C+ C+ A+ C- B 41% 26% 33% D+ B- C+ B+ B- B F F+ F D- C C+ B C+ 36% 18% 46% D+ C C+ F D- F F D+ F
1.14 59% 50% 33% +3 -1 1.07 34% 1.2 .40 15% .20 67% .14 1.11 56% 33% 30% -4 0 0.94 31% 1.3 .39 10% .39 71% .28
Mar
1		 Merrimack C- D B+ C 58% 0% 42% A+ B D- A+ B+ F A A+ A+ F D+ A+ F F 43% 9% 48% D F F C F B A F B
1.09 50% 38% -2 +4 1.05 35% 1.5 .52 26% .43 89% .38 1.20 60% 25% 41% +5 +2 1.15 34% 1.0 .34 18% .26 92% .24



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Metro Atlantic Athletic Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 100.0 100.0 11th
12th 12th
13th 13th
Total 100.0 Total



Metro Atlantic Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8
11-9
10-10
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8
11-9
10-10
9-11
8-12
7-13
6-14
5-15 100.0% 100.0
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0%