Niagara
Metro Atlantic Athletic
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating-11.4#342
Expected Predictive Rating-12.6#332
Pace63.3#328
Improvement-2.2#316

Offense
Total Offense-7.4#348
First Shot-3.2#268
After Offensive Rebound-4.1#354
Layup/Dunks-0.6#201
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.6#147
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.5#258
Freethrows-0.8#227
Improvement-1.1#274

Defense
Total Defense-4.0#313
First Shot-3.3#286
After Offensive Rebounds-0.7#239
Layups/Dunks+1.5#120
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.3#96
3 Pt Jumpshots-5.6#340
Freethrows-0.5#219
Improvement-1.1#282
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.3% 0.6% 0.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 3.2% 6.5% 1.6%
.500 or above in Conference 12.6% 21.9% 8.0%
Conference Champion 0.1% 0.2% 0.1%
Last Place in Conference 25.2% 12.8% 31.4%
First Four0.3% 0.5% 0.2%
First Round0.2% 0.4% 0.1%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: St. Peter's (Away) - 33.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 10 - 3
Quad 31 - 51 - 8
Quad 49 - 139 - 21


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 133 @Duquesne L 63-83 7%     0 - 1 -15.2 -8.5 -6.4
  Sat, Nov 8 354 @Binghamton W 67-59 45%     1 - 1 -2.2 -4.0 +2.7
  Mon, Nov 10 351 Delaware St. W 68-57 67%     2 - 1 -4.8 +3.2 -6.1
  Mon, Nov 17 306 @Le Moyne L 68-74 27%     2 - 2 -11.1 -7.9 -3.5
  Fri, Nov 21 3 @Duke L 42-100 0.3%    2 - 3 -32.5 -14.4 -22.7
  Sat, Nov 22 313 Howard L 70-80 39%     2 - 4 -18.5 -11.2 -6.5
  Sat, Nov 29 293 Detroit Mercy L 66-70 46%     2 - 5 -14.4 -7.4 -7.2
  Fri, Dec 5 156 @Siena L 54-83 10%     2 - 6 0 - 1 -26.3 -12.7 -15.6
  Sun, Dec 7 326 @St. Peter's L 62-67 33%    
  Sat, Dec 13 358 @Morgan St. L 71-72 48%    
  Mon, Dec 15 42 @Virginia Commonwealth L 56-82 1%    
  Fri, Jan 2 256 Sacred Heart L 72-75 38%    
  Sun, Jan 4 290 Fairfield L 68-69 46%    
  Fri, Jan 9 176 @Iona L 66-79 12%    
  Sun, Jan 11 308 @Manhattan L 69-75 29%    
  Wed, Jan 14 355 @Canisius L 63-64 46%    
  Mon, Jan 19 304 Mount St. Mary's L 67-68 49%    
  Thu, Jan 22 290 @Fairfield L 65-72 26%    
  Sat, Jan 24 256 @Sacred Heart L 69-78 20%    
  Fri, Jan 30 156 Siena L 61-69 23%    
  Sun, Feb 1 158 Marist L 57-65 24%    
  Tue, Feb 3 355 Canisius W 66-61 67%    
  Sat, Feb 7 154 @Quinnipiac L 64-78 10%    
  Fri, Feb 13 308 Manhattan L 71-72 50%    
  Sun, Feb 15 176 Iona L 69-76 27%    
  Fri, Feb 20 304 @Mount St. Mary's L 65-71 28%    
  Sun, Feb 22 336 @Rider L 64-68 37%    
  Fri, Feb 27 154 Quinnipiac L 67-75 23%    
  Sun, Mar 1 283 Merrimack L 64-66 43%    
Projected Record 9 - 20 6 - 14




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Metro Atlantic Athletic Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.3 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.8 3rd
4th 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.8 0.3 0.1 1.7 4th
5th 0.1 0.8 1.3 0.9 0.1 0.0 3.2 5th
6th 0.0 0.1 1.1 2.2 1.3 0.2 0.0 5.0 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 1.3 3.2 1.9 0.3 0.0 6.7 7th
8th 0.1 1.2 3.9 2.8 0.6 0.0 8.6 8th
9th 0.1 1.3 4.3 4.0 0.9 0.1 10.7 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 1.4 5.0 5.1 1.6 0.1 13.3 10th
11th 0.0 0.3 2.1 5.7 5.9 2.1 0.2 0.0 16.2 11th
12th 0.0 0.6 2.9 5.7 5.7 1.9 0.2 0.0 16.9 12th
13th 0.3 1.8 4.2 5.0 3.7 1.2 0.1 16.4 13th
Total 0.3 1.8 4.8 8.2 11.6 14.1 14.2 13.0 11.2 8.2 5.6 3.4 2.1 0.9 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 Total



Metro Atlantic Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3 66.7% 0.0    0.0
16-4 40.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
15-5 26.8% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
14-6 6.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
13-7 1.9% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 0.1% 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3 0.0% 0.0
16-4 0.0% 0.0 0.0
15-5 0.1% 12.2% 12.2% 16.0 0.0 0.1
14-6 0.4% 3.4% 3.4% 15.8 0.0 0.0 0.4
13-7 0.9% 4.7% 4.7% 16.0 0.0 0.8
12-8 2.1% 2.5% 2.5% 16.0 0.1 2.1
11-9 3.4% 1.5% 1.5% 16.0 0.1 3.3
10-10 5.6% 1.0% 1.0% 16.0 0.1 5.6
9-11 8.2% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 8.2
8-12 11.2% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 11.2
7-13 13.0% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 13.0
6-14 14.2% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 14.2
5-15 14.1% 14.1
4-16 11.6% 11.6
3-17 8.2% 8.2
2-18 4.8% 4.8
1-19 1.8% 1.8
0-20 0.3% 0.3
Total 100% 0.3% 0.3% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 0.3 99.7 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.2%