Niagara
Metro Atlantic Athletic
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating-13.2#352
Expected Predictive Rating-15.1#346
Pace63.3#331
Improvement-3.7#349

Offense
Total Offense-8.1#348
First Shot-3.5#277
After Offensive Rebound-4.6#361
Layup/Dunks+1.2#135
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.0#172
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.2#258
Freethrows-2.6#318
Improvement-1.3#275

Defense
Total Defense-5.1#331
First Shot-3.8#311
After Offensive Rebounds-1.3#280
Layups/Dunks+3.0#71
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.1#200
3 Pt Jumpshots-6.7#359
Freethrows-0.2#197
Improvement-2.4#329
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.1% 0.2% 0.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 0.2% 0.5% 0.1%
.500 or above in Conference 3.2% 6.8% 1.6%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 43.8% 29.1% 50.7%
First Four0.1% 0.2% 0.1%
First Round0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Sacred Heart (Home) - 32.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 10 - 3
Quad 30 - 60 - 9
Quad 47 - 147 - 23


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 121 @Duquesne L 63-83 5%     0 - 1 -14.5 -8.6 -5.6
  Sat, Nov 8 363 @Binghamton W 67-59 49%     1 - 1 -4.9 -6.5 +2.3
  Mon, Nov 10 346 Delaware St. W 68-57 57%     2 - 1 -4.1 +3.0 -5.2
  Mon, Nov 17 312 @Le Moyne L 68-74 24%     2 - 2 -11.8 -8.1 -3.9
  Fri, Nov 21 4 @Duke L 42-100 0.3%    2 - 3 -33.1 -14.8 -23.0
  Sat, Nov 22 265 Howard L 70-80 24%     2 - 4 -15.7 -8.5 -6.5
  Sat, Nov 29 296 Detroit Mercy L 66-70 39%     2 - 5 -14.2 -7.6 -6.9
  Fri, Dec 5 179 @Siena L 54-83 9%     2 - 6 0 - 1 -27.4 -12.7 -16.7
  Sun, Dec 7 297 @St. Peter's L 43-71 20%     2 - 7 0 - 2 -32.3 -23.4 -13.2
  Sat, Dec 13 360 @Morgan St. L 73-81 47%     2 - 8 -20.5 -3.7 -17.1
  Mon, Dec 15 47 @Virginia Commonwealth L 58-84 1%     2 - 9 -11.9 -1.4 -13.4
  Fri, Jan 2 250 Sacred Heart L 69-74 32%    
  Sun, Jan 4 277 Fairfield L 67-71 36%    
  Fri, Jan 9 165 @Iona L 65-81 7%    
  Sun, Jan 11 313 @Manhattan L 69-76 25%    
  Wed, Jan 14 347 @Canisius L 61-65 36%    
  Mon, Jan 19 300 Mount St. Mary's L 67-70 40%    
  Thu, Jan 22 277 @Fairfield L 64-74 18%    
  Sat, Jan 24 250 @Sacred Heart L 66-77 15%    
  Fri, Jan 30 179 Siena L 62-71 21%    
  Sun, Feb 1 157 Marist L 59-69 17%    
  Tue, Feb 3 347 Canisius W 64-62 57%    
  Sat, Feb 7 160 @Quinnipiac L 63-79 7%    
  Fri, Feb 13 313 Manhattan L 72-73 45%    
  Sun, Feb 15 165 Iona L 68-78 19%    
  Fri, Feb 20 300 @Mount St. Mary's L 64-73 22%    
  Sun, Feb 22 344 @Rider L 62-66 35%    
  Fri, Feb 27 160 Quinnipiac L 66-76 18%    
  Sun, Mar 1 263 Merrimack L 62-67 34%    
Projected Record 7 - 22 5 - 15




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Metro Atlantic Athletic Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 3rd
4th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.4 4th
5th 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.7 5th
6th 0.0 0.5 0.8 0.3 0.0 1.6 6th
7th 0.1 0.6 1.3 0.7 0.1 2.6 7th
8th 0.1 0.8 2.1 1.3 0.2 0.0 4.4 8th
9th 0.1 1.0 3.2 2.4 0.4 0.0 7.2 9th
10th 0.1 1.3 4.4 4.1 1.0 0.0 10.9 10th
11th 0.0 0.4 2.8 6.6 5.9 1.6 0.1 0.0 17.5 11th
12th 0.1 1.4 4.7 8.6 6.6 2.0 0.2 0.0 23.5 12th
13th 1.2 4.7 8.9 9.0 5.5 1.6 0.2 31.0 13th
Total 1.2 4.8 10.3 14.1 17.0 16.2 13.5 9.9 6.3 3.6 1.9 0.8 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 Total



Metro Atlantic Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5 66.7% 0.0    0.0 0.0
14-6 20.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
13-7 0.0%
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5 0.0% 0.0
14-6 0.0% 0.0
13-7 0.1% 18.4% 18.4% 15.9 0.0 0.0 0.1
12-8 0.4% 2.6% 2.6% 16.0 0.0 0.4
11-9 0.8% 1.3% 1.3% 16.0 0.0 0.8
10-10 1.9% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.0 1.9
9-11 3.6% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 3.6
8-12 6.3% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 6.2
7-13 9.9% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 9.9
6-14 13.5% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 13.4
5-15 16.2% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 16.2
4-16 17.0% 17.0
3-17 14.1% 14.1
2-18 10.3% 10.3
1-19 4.8% 4.8
0-20 1.2% 1.2
Total 100% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 0.1 99.9 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 1.2%