Marist
Metro Atlantic Athletic
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating-0.4#158
Expected Predictive Rating-1.4#194
Pace65.0#298
Improvement-1.3#278

Offense
Total Offense-6.5#336
First Shot-6.4#341
After Offensive Rebound-0.1#186
Layup/Dunks-1.9#242
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.4#66
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.6#203
Freethrows-6.2#365
Improvement-1.7#308

Defense
Total Defense+6.1#36
First Shot+7.8#14
After Offensive Rebounds-1.7#297
Layups/Dunks-1.3#224
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.6#72
3 Pt Jumpshots+11.6#1
Freethrows-4.1#349
Improvement+0.3#159
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 21.9% 23.0% 15.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.3 14.3 14.7
.500 or above 93.7% 95.4% 83.9%
.500 or above in Conference 94.2% 95.9% 84.6%
Conference Champion 28.9% 31.7% 13.1%
Last Place in Conference 0.1% 0.0% 0.6%
First Four1.0% 0.9% 1.4%
First Round21.5% 22.6% 15.1%
Second Round1.0% 1.0% 0.5%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Manhattan (Home) - 85.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 1
Quad 20 - 10 - 2
Quad 33 - 33 - 5
Quad 417 - 520 - 10


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 77 @Xavier L 62-66 16%     0 - 1 +6.5 -3.0 +9.4
  Sun, Nov 9 268 @Dartmouth W 75-56 59%     1 - 1 +16.4 -2.0 +17.6
  Sun, Nov 16 202 Harvard L 54-56 69%     1 - 2 -7.6 -15.4 +7.6
  Fri, Nov 21 340 Army W 76-65 90%     2 - 2 -3.3 -0.4 -2.3
  Tue, Nov 25 307 Lehigh W 78-55 84%     3 - 2 +11.9 +2.6 +10.1
  Fri, Dec 5 304 Mount St. Mary's W 64-56 84%     4 - 2 1 - 0 -3.0 -15.3 +12.1
  Sun, Dec 7 308 Manhattan W 74-63 85%    
  Sat, Dec 13 297 @Bryant W 64-60 66%    
  Tue, Dec 16 135 @Georgia Tech L 61-66 32%    
  Sun, Dec 21 221 Stony Brook W 67-61 72%    
  Mon, Dec 29 154 @Quinnipiac L 66-69 38%    
  Fri, Jan 2 326 @St. Peter's W 64-58 72%    
  Sun, Jan 4 176 Iona W 71-67 64%    
  Fri, Jan 9 256 @Sacred Heart W 71-69 56%    
  Sun, Jan 11 336 @Rider W 66-59 74%    
  Sat, Jan 17 290 Fairfield W 70-60 81%    
  Mon, Jan 19 283 Merrimack W 66-57 80%    
  Thu, Jan 22 156 @Siena L 61-64 39%    
  Sat, Jan 24 154 Quinnipiac W 69-66 59%    
  Fri, Jan 30 355 @Canisius W 65-55 81%    
  Sun, Feb 1 342 @Niagara W 65-57 76%    
  Thu, Feb 5 336 Rider W 69-56 88%    
  Sat, Feb 7 290 @Fairfield W 67-63 64%    
  Thu, Feb 12 283 @Merrimack W 63-60 61%    
  Sun, Feb 15 156 Siena W 64-61 60%    
  Fri, Feb 20 308 @Manhattan W 71-66 67%    
  Sun, Feb 22 256 Sacred Heart W 74-66 76%    
  Sun, Mar 1 326 St. Peter's W 67-55 86%    
Projected Record 19 - 9 14 - 6




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Metro Atlantic Athletic Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.9 3.4 6.6 8.3 6.2 2.8 0.7 28.9 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 1.3 4.6 7.0 5.3 1.7 0.2 20.2 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.4 4.7 5.9 3.4 0.9 0.0 16.5 3rd
4th 0.0 0.1 1.1 4.0 4.6 2.3 0.4 0.0 0.0 12.5 4th
5th 0.1 0.8 2.9 3.3 1.3 0.2 0.0 8.6 5th
6th 0.0 0.4 1.8 2.2 0.8 0.1 0.0 5.4 6th
7th 0.2 1.2 1.4 0.5 0.1 3.4 7th
8th 0.1 0.5 1.0 0.5 0.1 0.0 2.1 8th
9th 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.3 0.0 1.3 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.7 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 12th
13th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 13th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.6 3.0 4.6 6.9 9.7 12.1 13.9 14.2 12.8 10.1 6.4 2.8 0.7 Total



Metro Atlantic Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.7    0.7
19-1 100.0% 2.8    2.7 0.0
18-2 97.0% 6.2    5.5 0.7 0.0
17-3 82.4% 8.3    6.0 2.2 0.2
16-4 51.5% 6.6    3.4 2.4 0.7 0.1
15-5 23.7% 3.4    1.1 1.5 0.7 0.1 0.0
14-6 6.6% 0.9    0.1 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
13-7 0.6% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 28.9% 28.9 19.6 7.2 1.8 0.3 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.7% 51.2% 51.2% 12.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.3
19-1 2.8% 49.3% 49.3% 12.8 0.1 0.5 0.6 0.3 0.0 1.4
18-2 6.4% 43.6% 43.6% 13.4 0.0 0.3 1.3 1.0 0.2 0.0 3.6
17-3 10.1% 36.0% 36.0% 13.9 0.1 1.0 1.8 0.7 0.0 6.5
16-4 12.8% 30.1% 30.1% 14.3 0.0 0.5 1.8 1.4 0.1 9.0
15-5 14.2% 24.2% 24.2% 14.6 0.0 0.2 1.4 1.6 0.3 10.7
14-6 13.9% 19.8% 19.8% 14.9 0.1 0.6 1.5 0.5 11.2
13-7 12.1% 15.2% 15.2% 15.3 0.0 0.2 0.9 0.7 10.3
12-8 9.7% 10.6% 10.6% 15.6 0.1 0.3 0.6 8.7
11-9 6.9% 7.5% 7.5% 15.8 0.0 0.1 0.4 6.4
10-10 4.6% 4.2% 4.2% 15.8 0.0 0.2 4.5
9-11 3.0% 3.8% 3.8% 16.0 0.0 0.1 2.8
8-12 1.6% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.0 1.6
7-13 0.7% 0.9% 0.9% 16.0 0.0 0.7
6-14 0.3% 0.3
5-15 0.1% 0.1
4-16 0.1% 0.1
3-17 0.0% 0.0
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 21.9% 21.9% 0.0% 14.3 0.0 0.2 1.0 3.7 7.2 6.8 3.0 78.1 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 11.3 2.3 58.1 39.5