Marist
Metro Atlantic Athletic
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -0.3 163
Expected Predictive Rating -1.7 196
Pace 65.2 271
Improvement -3.4 317

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense D #314 D+ C- D+ D+ D
Defense B #54 B C+ B- D+ B

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 36% 250 57% 196 -1.7 243
2 Pt. Jumpers 28% 51 41% 72 +3.7 34
Three Pointers 36% 281 29% 339 -5.1 329
1st FG Attempt 0.96 272 -3.1 271
Second Chance 25.7% 311 1.11 65 0.29 232
Turnovers 18.5% 280
Freethrows 0.25 338 80% 4 0.20 270
Total Offense -5.4 314

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 37% 222 58% 192 +0.7 147
2 Pt. Jumpers 26% 44 34% 47 -1.0 269
Three Pointers 37% 293 29% 18 +4.9 19
1st FG Attempt 0.93 48 +4.6 48
Second Chance 30.0% 154 0.98 114 0.29 126
Turnovers 19.0% 69
Freethrows 0.36 317 70% 84 0.25 296
Total Defense +5.1 54

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Selection -1.1 311 -0.8 61
Shot Type Accuracy -2.1 247 -3.8 54
Possession Length 17.7 227 17.6 249
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.13 290 0.12 29
Improvement +0.4 #152 -3.8 #337

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 24% 27% 22%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 14.4 14.1 14.7
.500 or above 100% 100% 100%
.500 or above in Conference 100% 100% 100%
Conference Champion 10% 22% 1%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0%
First Four0% 0% 0%
First Round24% 27% 22%
Second Round0% 1% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%

Next Game: Merrimack (Away) - 43.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 15 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 0
Quad 20 - 10 - 1
Quad 31 - 61 - 7
Quad 418 - 420 - 10


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 83 @Xavier L 62 - 66 17% -4  37% 0 - 1 B- +6 D- -6 B C- F A +12 A+ C- A-
 Sun, Nov 9 240 @Dartmouth W 75 - 56 55% +8  99% 1 - 1 A +18 D+ -4 C C- F A+ +20 A+ C+ A+
 Sun, Nov 16 153 Harvard L 54 - 56 60% -1  33% 1 - 2 D+ -5 F -17 F+ F F A +12 A+ C A
 Fri, Nov 21 341 Army W 76 - 65 91% +4  69% 2 - 2 C- -4 D+ -4 D B- C+ C+ +0 D+ A+ C
 Tue, Nov 25 306 Lehigh W 78 - 55 85% +13  85% 3 - 2 B+ +12 C +0 B- D- B+ A +12 A+ D F
 Fri, Dec 5 289 Mount St. Mary's W 64 - 56 83% +2  46% 4 - 2 1 - 0 C- -2 F -16 D C+ F A+ +13 A+ C A+
 Sun, Dec 7 323 Manhattan W 80 - 68 88% +3  71% 5 - 2 2 - 0 C -1 F -10 F+ D+ C- A- +8 C+ A+ B
 Sat, Dec 13 342 @Bryant W 82 - 74 80% +6  72% 6 - 2 C -1 B- +5 B- C- D- D -6 F A+ B-
 Tue, Dec 16 131 @Georgia Tech L 76 - 87 31% -8  19% 6 - 3 D+ -6 B +6 C+ A+ C+ F -12 F D A
 Sun, Dec 21 213 Stony Brook W 70 - 51 71% +13  90% 7 - 3 B+ +13 D+ -3 D B- A- A+ +18 A+ A B-
 Mon, Dec 29 195 @Quinnipiac L 58 - 64 46% -3  11% 7 - 4 2 - 1 D+ -5 F -14 F C F A- +8 A F+ A
 Fri, Jan 2 228 @St. Peter's L 59 - 69 51% -3  27% 7 - 5 2 - 2 D -11 F -14 F F C+ B- +3 A F C-
 Sun, Jan 4 247 Iona W 83 - 38 76% +21  87% 8 - 5 3 - 2 A+ +37 B- +4 D- A A+ A+ +33 A+ A+ A+
 Fri, Jan 9 287 @Sacred Heart W 76 - 72 65% -2  34% 9 - 5 4 - 2 C -0 B- +4 C- A C+ D+ -4 D F B+
 Sun, Jan 11 354 @Rider W 71 - 49 84% +12  93% 10 - 5 5 - 2 B +11 D- -6 C- F C A+ +19 A- A- C
 Sat, Jan 17 262 Fairfield W 82 - 67 79% +13  99% 11 - 5 6 - 2 B- +6 B- +5 B A+ F C+ +2 A+ F+ C
 Mon, Jan 19 182 Merrimack L 55 - 68 65% -6  5% 11 - 6 6 - 3 F+ -17 F -16 F D- D+ C- -2 D A B
 Thu, Jan 22 181 @Siena L 50 - 69 42% -4  25% 11 - 7 6 - 4 F+ -17 F -17 F F A- C- -3 B+ F D-
 Sat, Jan 24 195 Quinnipiac W 71 - 64 69% +8  92% 12 - 7 7 - 4 C+ +2 C- -1 B- D C- B- +3 B A F
 Fri, Jan 30 346 @Canisius W 88 - 86 OT 80% -1  49% 13 - 7 8 - 4 D+ -7 B +6 A- F+ D F -13 F F D+
 Sun, Feb 1 335 @Niagara W 58 - 46 78% +5  86% 14 - 7 9 - 4 C+ +4 F -12 F F+ B A+ +17 A+ B- A
 Thu, Feb 5 354 Rider W 81 - 52 93% +18  91% 15 - 7 10 - 4 B+ +12 A +12 A+ C- D B +6 B+ C- C+
 Sat, Feb 7 262 @Fairfield L 60 - 63 59% -4  10% 15 - 8 10 - 5 D+ -6 F+ -10 F C F B- +4 C B+ D
 Thu, Feb 12 182 @Merrimack L 62 - 64 43%
 Sun, Feb 15 181 Siena W 67 - 63 64%
 Fri, Feb 20 323 @Manhattan W 74 - 67 74%
 Sun, Feb 22 287 Sacred Heart W 76 - 66 83%
 Sun, Mar 1 228 St. Peter's W 66 - 60 73%
Totals 18 - 10 13 - 7 +0 D -5 D+ C- D+ B +5 B C+ B-



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings D C B- D- D+ 36% 28% 36% D D+ D B- C- D+ D- A D+ B C B A- B 37% 26% 37% B B C C+ C+ B- D B- D+
1.01 57% 41% 29% -2 -1 0.96 26% 1.1 .29 18% .25 80% .20 1.01 58% 34% 29% -4 -1 0.93 30% 1.0 .29 19% .36 70% .17
Nov
3		 Xavier D- A+ A- D- A- 31% 44% 26% F B D+ C C- F A+ C- A+ A F+ A+ A+ A+ 16% 29% 56% A A+ D B- C- A- F C F
0.92 75% 47% 30% +8 -4 1.10 24% 0.8 .20 27% .50 68% .34 0.98 71% 23% 24% -10 -3 0.76 31% 0.9 .28 16% .57 72% .41
Nov
9		 Dartmouth D+ B B+ D B- 33% 27% 40% F+ C D B+ C- F F A F A+ B+ B- A+ A+ 43% 14% 43% F+ A+ C B- C+ A+ F B+ F
1.03 65% 44% 29% +1 -1 1.02 25% 1.1 .28 18% .08 80% .07 0.77 47% 33% 16% -17 +1 0.70 26% 1.0 .26 27% .53 68% .36
Nov
16		 Harvard F F B+ D+ F 42% 19% 40% C- F+ D F F F B F+ C+ A A+ A+ F+ A+ 49% 13% 38% F+ A+ C+ C- C A F B F
0.86 40% 44% 32% -8 0 0.88 26% 0.7 .17 24% .31 67% .21 0.89 37% 20% 40% -9 +2 0.87 25% 1.0 .25 24% .48 78% .37
Nov
21		 Army D+ C+ A F D 40% 24% 36% C- D A- D B- C+ F A+ F+ C+ F D A- D 30% 17% 53% A- D+ D- A+ A+ C F F F
1.14 64% 46% 25% -1 0 1.00 39% 1.1 .42 14% .21 92% .19 0.98 71% 38% 28% -1 0 1.00 34% 0.3 .11 18% .33 78% .26
Nov
25		 Lehigh C C+ A+ B- B 33% 25% 42% D B- D D D- B+ D+ B- C- A B C+ A+ A+ 38% 30% 32% B- A+ C+ F D F D+ A+ C+
1.15 59% 54% 36% +6 -1 1.12 29% 0.9 .26 13% .29 76% .22 0.81 50% 38% 6% -17 -1 0.66 20% 1.4 .27 13% .31 61% .19
Dec
5		 Mount St. Mary's F C D- D+ D+ 34% 32% 34% F+ D D- A+ C+ F F A+ D A+ A+ A+ A A+ 47% 11% 42% D A+ F+ A- C A+ F A+ D+
0.89 56% 33% 31% -3 -2 0.91 23% 1.4 .32 27% .25 85% .21 0.78 43% 20% 26% -14 +2 0.78 34% 0.9 .29 29% .42 57% .24
Dec
7		 Manhattan F C+ B F F 35% 15% 50% C F+ C- D+ D+ C- C F D+ A- B- B D+ C 35% 33% 33% A- C+ A- A+ A+ B F B+ F+
1.06 62% 44% 27% -3 0 0.97 36% 1.1 .38 16% .24 67% .16 0.90 50% 35% 35% -3 -2 0.92 20% 0.5 .10 19% .39 75% .29
Dec
13		 Bryant B- A- D+ C+ B 52% 25% 23% D+ B- D+ C+ C- D- A- A+ A+ D F F F F 33% 12% 55% C F A- A+ A+ B- D A- C-
1.19 68% 33% 36% +5 0 1.13 31% 1.0 .31 16% .36 95% .35 1.08 69% 50% 41% +11 +1 1.24 21% 0.3 .07 23% .30 69% .21
Dec
16		 Georgia Tech B F+ C A B 24% 35% 41% F C+ B- A+ A+ C+ D- F F F F F F F 34% 44% 22% A+ F F B D A C- F D
1.11 46% 37% 41% +1 -3 0.98 32% 1.5 .49 15% .24 50% .12 1.27 71% 45% 73% +20 -3 1.36 42% 1.0 .42 22% .32 76% .24
Dec
21		 Stony Brook D+ D+ C- D D 35% 23% 42% D+ D D A+ B- A- D- A- D+ A+ A- A+ A+ A+ 22% 31% 47% A+ A+ A- A+ A B- F A+ D+
1.06 56% 33% 32% -3 -1 0.94 27% 1.2 .32 12% .24 79% .19 0.77 45% 27% 26% -12 -2 0.73 22% 0.7 .15 20% .34 61% .21
Dec
29		 Quinnipiac F D+ F F F 50% 23% 27% C F C- B- C F F A- F A- A+ B B+ A 31% 33% 35% A A F C F+ A F B+ D-
0.85 54% 25% 14% -13 +1 0.77 32% 1.1 .34 22% .17 78% .13 0.94 40% 31% 29% -10 -2 0.77 40% 1.1 .43 22% .37 65% .24
Jan
2		 St. Peter's F F B F F 42% 24% 34% D+ F F F F C+ C+ A+ A- B- B- A+ A+ A+ 36% 22% 42% C A C F F C- F D F
0.85 33% 42% 18% -18 0 0.66 24% 0.8 .18 19% .41 87% .36 1.00 50% 20% 21% -15 0 0.71 35% 1.3 .45 17% .49 79% .39
Jan
4		 Iona B- D A+ F D- 39% 18% 43% C D- D- A+ A A+ D A+ C+ A+ B- A- A+ A+ 43% 25% 33% B- A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ F A+ D+
1.18 54% 55% 23% -5 0 0.92 29% 1.7 .50 8% .23 87% .20 0.54 53% 30% 8% -17 0 0.68 14% 0.6 .08 34% .36 53% .19
Jan
9		 Sacred Heart B- A A+ F C 40% 21% 38% D+ C- C+ A+ A C+ C- C- C- D+ C- A+ D D+ 37% 11% 52% F+ D F D+ F B+ F F F
1.20 74% 50% 28% +5 0 1.13 33% 1.4 .48 14% .26 71% .18 1.13 59% 20% 38% +1 +1 1.07 34% 1.1 .38 22% .44 86% .38
Jan
11		 Rider D- C- D A+ C- 48% 20% 32% D+ C- F F F C F A+ F A+ F A A+ B 31% 58% 11% A+ A- A+ F A- C F A+ D
1.07 56% 36% 44% +4 +1 1.11 23% 0.5 .11 14% .10 83% .09 0.74 64% 27% 0% -10 -5 0.71 9% 2.3 .20 18% .39 57% .22
Jan
17		 Fairfield B- A+ B- A+ A 27% 38% 36% F B B+ A+ A+ F A+ A A+ C+ C+ C+ A+ A+ 30% 32% 38% A A+ C F F+ C F C F
1.23 75% 41% 44% +11 -3 1.18 37% 1.4 .52 20% .39 81% .32 1.01 53% 38% 16% -12 -2 0.74 33% 1.2 .40 15% .48 70% .34
Jan
19		 Merrimack F D D- F F 41% 27% 32% D+ F F+ C D- D+ A- A+ A+ C- F F A+ F+ 39% 24% 37% A- D A+ C A B F D F
0.85 50% 33% 14% -14 -1 0.73 32% 1.0 .32 20% .43 86% .37 1.05 69% 60% 20% +2 0 1.05 13% 1.0 .13 19% .51 81% .42
Jan
22		 Siena F F C+ D- F 31% 29% 39% D- F F F F A- F A F C- A- B F C+ 26% 53% 21% A+ B+ B- F F D- C+ F F+
0.83 44% 40% 30% -6 -2 0.86 9% 0.7 .06 13% .10 80% .08 1.14 50% 36% 40% -1 -5 0.89 28% 2.0 .55 13% .27 100% .27
Jan
24		 Quinnipiac C- A- A+ D- B 45% 28% 28% D+ B- F A+ D C- C+ B B- B- B B B+ B+ 51% 18% 31% F B B- A+ A F C- D+ D+
1.07 67% 46% 31% +5 0 1.11 15% 1.8 .27 18% .30 75% .22 0.97 50% 30% 29% -8 +1 0.89 29% 0.7 .20 11% .30 72% .22
Jan
30		 Canisius B A+ A C- A 44% 25% 31% C- A- D+ F F+ D A+ A+ A+ F F D- D F 38% 13% 48% F F F+ D- F D+ F A- F
1.19 81% 50% 33% +13 0 1.27 29% 0.8 .21 18% .46 82% .38 1.16 65% 43% 36% +5 +1 1.13 33% 1.1 .36 18% .43 62% .26
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Feb
1		 Niagara F C- C- F F 31% 44% 24% F F F A+ F+ B D+ A C+ A+ A+ A+ F A+ 44% 24% 31% B+ A+ F A+ B- A D+ A- C
0.95 57% 40% 18% -5 -4 0.84 13% 1.8 .23 13% .28 87% .24 0.75 30% 9% 43% -15 0 0.71 30% 0.5 .16 25% .24 64% .15
Feb
5		 Rider A B B- A+ A+ 48% 19% 33% D+ A+ B- D- C- D F A+ D B A- D+ A+ B+ 35% 37% 28% B- B+ F B+ C- C+ A A+ A+
1.37 65% 44% 63% +19 +1 1.42 36% 0.9 .32 15% .16 100% .16 0.88 44% 41% 15% -12 -2 0.74 41% 0.8 .32 19% .19 44% .08
Feb
7		 Fairfield F+ F A+ F+ F 48% 17% 35% C F B- D- C F D+ A+ B B- F C- A+ C- 27% 21% 52% B- C A C+ B+ D C F+ C-
0.98 43% 50% 29% -7 +1 0.90 35% 0.9 .32 20% .26 92% .24 1.03 77% 40% 24% -2 -1 0.96 26% 0.9 .23 13% .24 77% .19



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Metro Atlantic Athletic Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 1.9 7.8 9.7 1st
2nd 2.0 17.7 6.1 25.8 2nd
3rd 0.5 12.3 12.5 0.3 25.5 3rd
4th 0.2 6.1 15.0 1.6 22.8 4th
5th 0.1 2.7 8.8 3.2 0.0 14.9 5th
6th 0.3 0.8 0.1 1.2 6th
7th 0.1 0.1 0.1 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
13th 13th
Total 0.4 3.8 15.5 32.4 33.7 14.2 Total



Metro Atlantic Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5 55.1% 7.8    1.7 4.1 1.8 0.2
14-6 5.6% 1.9    0.1 0.2 0.7 0.6 0.3
13-7 0.0%
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 9.7% 9.7 1.8 4.3 2.5 0.8 0.3



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5 14.2% 31.9% 31.9% 13.6 0.1 1.9 2.2 0.2 9.7
14-6 33.7% 27.9% 27.9% 14.3 0.0 0.9 4.6 3.8 0.1 24.3
13-7 32.4% 21.4% 21.4% 14.8 0.1 2.0 4.0 0.8 25.5
12-8 15.5% 17.1% 17.1% 15.2 0.3 1.7 0.7 12.9
11-9 3.8% 14.4% 14.4% 15.3 0.1 0.3 0.2 3.3
10-10 0.4% 5.1% 5.1% 15.5 0.0 0.0 0.4
9-11
8-12
7-13
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 24.1% 24.1% 0.0% 14.4 75.9 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 4.5% 100.0% 13.6 2.4 42.9 49.3 5.3
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 2.9%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 3.6%