Xavier
Big East
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating+7.5#77
Expected Predictive Rating+8.6#74
Pace71.7#130
Improvement+4.3#6

Offense
Total Offense+3.5#88
First Shot+3.6#77
After Offensive Rebound-0.1#185
Layup/Dunks-2.2#253
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.5#101
3 Pt Jumpshots+5.7#36
Freethrows-1.4#265
Improvement+3.9#4

Defense
Total Defense+4.0#66
First Shot+0.2#167
After Offensive Rebounds+3.8#13
Layups/Dunks-2.4#268
2 Pt Jumpshots-4.4#355
3 Pt Jumpshots+5.0#32
Freethrows+2.0#66
Improvement+0.4#152
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.6% 0.6% 0.1%
NCAA Tourney Bid 13.8% 14.4% 6.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 12.8% 13.3% 5.6%
Average Seed 9.6 9.6 9.9
.500 or above 59.2% 61.0% 34.4%
.500 or above in Conference 31.7% 32.4% 21.7%
Conference Champion 0.5% 0.5% 0.2%
Last Place in Conference 10.6% 10.2% 16.9%
First Four4.4% 4.6% 2.1%
First Round11.3% 11.8% 5.2%
Second Round4.3% 4.5% 1.7%
Sweet Sixteen0.7% 0.7% 0.2%
Elite Eight0.2% 0.2% 0.1%
Final Four0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Missouri St. (Home) - 93.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 61 - 6
Quad 1b2 - 42 - 10
Quad 25 - 47 - 14
Quad 34 - 211 - 16
Quad 46 - 017 - 16


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 158 Marist W 66-62 84%     1 - 0 +0.6 +0.2 +0.6
  Thu, Nov 6 306 Le Moyne W 74-69 95%     2 - 0 -6.1 -6.4 +0.4
  Mon, Nov 10 75 Santa Clara L 68-87 61%     2 - 1 -14.4 -5.4 -8.5
  Fri, Nov 14 25 @Iowa L 62-81 17%     2 - 2 -1.4 -3.1 +1.7
  Tue, Nov 18 212 Old Dominion W 99-69 90%     3 - 2 +23.7 +16.2 +5.6
  Fri, Nov 21 19 Georgia L 77-78 22%     3 - 3 +14.5 +7.7 +6.8
  Sun, Nov 23 71 West Virginia W 78-68 48%     4 - 3 +18.0 +13.1 +5.3
  Fri, Nov 28 210 TX A&M Corpus Christi W 88-67 89%     5 - 3 +14.7 +9.3 +4.1
  Mon, Dec 1 357 St. Francis (PA) W 96-74 98%     6 - 3 +5.1 +7.5 -4.6
  Fri, Dec 5 68 Cincinnati W 79-74 58%     7 - 3 +10.3 +10.0 +0.0
  Fri, Dec 12 255 Missouri St. W 78-62 93%    
  Wed, Dec 17 43 Creighton L 75-76 46%    
  Sat, Dec 20 86 @Georgetown L 75-77 43%    
  Wed, Dec 31 6 Connecticut L 66-76 17%    
  Sat, Jan 3 134 @DePaul W 75-72 60%    
  Wed, Jan 7 88 @Marquette L 76-78 44%    
  Sat, Jan 10 65 Providence W 82-80 57%    
  Wed, Jan 14 55 Butler W 79-78 51%    
  Wed, Jan 21 43 @Creighton L 72-79 26%    
  Sat, Jan 24 16 St. John's L 75-82 27%    
  Wed, Jan 28 64 @Seton Hall L 67-71 36%    
  Sat, Jan 31 134 DePaul W 78-69 78%    
  Tue, Feb 3 6 @Connecticut L 63-79 7%    
  Mon, Feb 9 16 @St. John's L 72-85 13%    
  Sat, Feb 14 88 Marquette W 79-75 65%    
  Tue, Feb 17 38 Villanova L 69-71 42%    
  Sat, Feb 21 55 @Butler L 75-81 31%    
  Tue, Feb 24 65 @Providence L 79-83 36%    
  Sat, Feb 28 86 Georgetown W 78-74 64%    
  Tue, Mar 3 64 Seton Hall W 70-68 56%    
  Sat, Mar 7 38 @Villanova L 66-74 23%    
Projected Record 16 - 15 8 - 12




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big East Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.5 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.8 0.5 0.2 0.0 2.3 2nd
3rd 0.1 0.8 2.0 1.8 0.8 0.2 0.0 5.6 3rd
4th 0.2 1.5 3.4 2.8 0.9 0.1 0.0 8.8 4th
5th 0.2 2.3 4.6 3.5 0.8 0.1 0.0 11.5 5th
6th 0.0 0.3 2.3 5.5 3.9 0.8 0.1 12.8 6th
7th 0.0 0.2 2.4 6.2 4.5 0.9 0.0 14.2 7th
8th 0.0 0.3 2.4 6.0 4.7 0.9 0.0 14.4 8th
9th 0.0 0.5 2.5 5.3 3.9 0.8 0.0 13.0 9th
10th 0.1 0.7 2.6 4.0 2.7 0.6 0.0 10.8 10th
11th 0.0 0.2 0.9 1.8 2.0 1.1 0.2 0.0 6.1 11th
Total 0.0 0.2 1.0 2.5 5.0 7.8 10.8 13.2 14.3 13.5 11.0 8.4 5.8 3.3 1.8 0.8 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 Total



Big East Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1 100.0% 0.0    0.0
18-2 100.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
17-3 87.0% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0
16-4 48.6% 0.2    0.1 0.1 0.0
15-5 16.4% 0.1    0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
14-6 5.0% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
13-7 0.5% 0.0    0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 0.5% 0.5 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1 0.0% 0.0 0.0
18-2 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
17-3 0.1% 100.0% 21.7% 78.3% 5.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
16-4 0.4% 100.0% 11.9% 88.1% 6.4 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
15-5 0.8% 97.1% 9.2% 87.8% 7.6 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 96.8%
14-6 1.8% 90.1% 6.4% 83.7% 8.5 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.2 89.4%
13-7 3.3% 76.5% 4.5% 72.0% 9.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.7 0.8 0.3 0.8 75.4%
12-8 5.8% 56.0% 2.5% 53.5% 9.9 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.7 1.4 0.9 0.0 2.6 54.9%
11-9 8.4% 34.1% 2.1% 32.0% 10.2 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.1 1.2 0.1 5.6 32.7%
10-10 11.0% 14.6% 1.4% 13.2% 10.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.0 0.1 9.4 13.4%
9-11 13.5% 3.3% 0.8% 2.5% 10.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.1 13.0 2.5%
8-12 14.3% 0.9% 0.6% 0.2% 11.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 14.1 0.2%
7-13 13.2% 0.2% 0.2% 12.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 13.2
6-14 10.8% 0.3% 0.3% 13.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 10.8
5-15 7.8% 0.3% 0.3% 14.7 0.0 0.0 7.8
4-16 5.0% 0.2% 0.2% 15.3 0.0 0.0 5.0
3-17 2.5% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 2.5
2-18 1.0% 1.0
1-19 0.2% 0.2
0-20 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 13.8% 1.2% 12.6% 9.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.8 1.6 2.6 4.0 3.9 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 86.2 12.8%