Xavier
Big East
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+11.7#41
Expected Predictive Rating+10.5#54
Pace71.7#95
Improvement+3.6#38

Offense
Total Offense+4.9#56
First Shot+5.7#48
After Offensive Rebound-0.8#241
Layup/Dunks+2.6#88
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.8#280
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.1#109
Freethrows+2.8#37
Improvement-0.6#218

Defense
Total Defense+6.8#27
First Shot+5.6#34
After Offensive Rebounds+1.2#90
Layups/Dunks+0.5#149
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.0#91
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.7#38
Freethrows+0.4#157
Improvement+4.2#15
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.4% 1.2% 0.1%
Top 6 Seed 2.3% 6.5% 1.1%
NCAA Tourney Bid 43.7% 62.9% 38.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 39.7% 59.0% 34.3%
Average Seed 9.4 8.9 9.7
.500 or above 97.3% 99.3% 96.7%
.500 or above in Conference 78.9% 93.0% 74.7%
Conference Champion 1.0% 3.5% 0.2%
Last Place in Conference 0.1% 0.0% 0.1%
First Four12.5% 11.2% 12.9%
First Round38.0% 57.9% 32.2%
Second Round17.6% 28.8% 14.3%
Sweet Sixteen4.4% 7.6% 3.5%
Elite Eight1.5% 2.7% 1.1%
Final Four0.4% 1.0% 0.2%
Championship Game0.1% 0.3% 0.1%
National Champion0.0% 0.1% 0.0%

Next Game: St. John's (Away) - 22.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 41 - 4
Quad 1b1 - 53 - 9
Quad 25 - 38 - 12
Quad 35 - 113 - 13
Quad 47 - 020 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 289   Texas Southern W 78-69 97%     1 - 0 -1.0 +0.1 -1.4
  Nov 08, 2024 327   IU Indianapolis W 94-80 98%     2 - 0 +1.0 +15.5 -14.0
  Nov 12, 2024 280   Jackson St. W 94-57 97%     3 - 0 +27.4 +15.4 +10.5
  Nov 16, 2024 59   Wake Forest W 75-60 69%     4 - 0 +21.6 +11.6 +10.9
  Nov 20, 2024 272   Siena W 80-55 96%     5 - 0 +16.1 +8.3 +9.0
  Nov 25, 2024 82   South Carolina W 75-66 68%     6 - 0 +15.8 +5.7 +9.9
  Nov 27, 2024 11   Michigan L 53-78 30%     6 - 1 -7.7 -13.6 +6.2
  Dec 01, 2024 244   South Carolina St. W 71-68 95%     7 - 1 -4.2 -7.0 +2.7
  Dec 05, 2024 62   @ TCU L 72-76 51%     7 - 2 +7.5 +10.6 -3.4
  Dec 10, 2024 333   Morgan St. W 119-58 98%     8 - 2 +46.9 +30.1 +13.6
  Dec 14, 2024 39   @ Cincinnati L 65-68 39%     8 - 3 +11.6 +3.7 +7.8
  Dec 18, 2024 24   @ Connecticut L 89-94 OT 28%     8 - 4 0 - 1 +12.8 +18.7 -5.8
  Dec 21, 2024 20   Marquette L 70-72 45%     8 - 5 0 - 2 +10.9 +4.4 +6.4
  Dec 31, 2024 132   Seton Hall W 94-72 88%     9 - 5 1 - 2 +21.1 +22.7 -1.5
  Jan 03, 2025 68   @ Georgetown L 63-69 53%     9 - 6 1 - 3 +4.9 -1.5 +6.4
  Jan 07, 2025 17   St. John's L 72-82 42%     9 - 7 1 - 4 +3.8 +2.8 +1.8
  Jan 11, 2025 106   @ DePaul W 77-63 70%     10 - 7 2 - 4 +20.3 +8.3 +12.5
  Jan 14, 2025 44   Villanova W 69-63 62%     11 - 7 3 - 4 +14.6 +2.4 +12.6
  Jan 18, 2025 20   @ Marquette W 59-57 26%     12 - 7 4 - 4 +20.3 -1.8 +22.2
  Jan 22, 2025 17   @ St. John's L 69-77 23%    
  Jan 25, 2025 24   Connecticut L 74-75 48%    
  Jan 29, 2025 33   @ Creighton L 72-76 35%    
  Feb 04, 2025 68   Georgetown W 73-67 73%    
  Feb 09, 2025 44   @ Villanova L 71-73 41%    
  Feb 12, 2025 81   @ Providence W 73-71 55%    
  Feb 15, 2025 106   DePaul W 80-69 84%    
  Feb 18, 2025 83   Butler W 78-70 76%    
  Feb 23, 2025 132   @ Seton Hall W 72-65 73%    
  Mar 01, 2025 33   Creighton W 74-73 56%    
  Mar 05, 2025 83   @ Butler W 75-73 57%    
  Mar 08, 2025 81   Providence W 75-68 76%    
Projected Record 19 - 12 11 - 9




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big East Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.2 1.0 1st
2nd 0.1 1.0 2.2 1.1 0.1 4.3 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.2 1.9 5.2 2.7 0.3 10.2 3rd
4th 0.0 0.3 3.0 8.9 5.3 0.5 0.0 18.1 4th
5th 0.0 0.8 5.2 11.9 7.5 1.0 26.3 5th
6th 0.7 5.0 9.4 6.2 0.8 0.0 22.1 6th
7th 0.4 3.2 5.3 2.9 0.3 0.0 12.1 7th
8th 0.0 0.2 1.3 2.0 1.0 0.1 4.5 8th
9th 0.1 0.4 0.6 0.2 0.0 1.2 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 11th
Total 0.1 0.7 2.2 6.1 12.0 17.8 21.6 19.2 12.5 5.6 1.9 0.3 Total



Big East Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4 76.0% 0.2    0.1 0.1 0.0
15-5 29.2% 0.6    0.1 0.3 0.1 0.1
14-6 3.4% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.1
13-7 0.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 1.0% 1.0 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4 0.3% 100.0% 24.0% 76.0% 4.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 100.0%
15-5 1.9% 98.4% 19.3% 79.2% 6.5 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0 98.1%
14-6 5.6% 91.7% 17.2% 74.5% 8.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.0 1.3 1.3 0.6 0.1 0.5 90.0%
13-7 12.5% 80.8% 10.1% 70.7% 9.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.8 2.1 3.1 2.8 1.2 2.4 78.7%
12-8 19.2% 62.8% 8.0% 54.8% 9.8 0.1 0.4 1.3 2.5 4.2 3.5 0.2 7.2 59.6%
11-9 21.6% 42.5% 5.6% 36.9% 10.3 0.1 0.3 1.3 3.1 4.3 0.2 12.4 39.1%
10-10 17.8% 22.3% 3.7% 18.6% 10.6 0.1 0.2 1.2 2.2 0.3 13.8 19.3%
9-11 12.0% 7.6% 3.2% 4.4% 10.8 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.1 11.1 4.6%
8-12 6.1% 3.0% 2.3% 0.7% 11.0 0.0 0.2 0.0 5.9 0.7%
7-13 2.2% 0.9% 0.9% 11.5 0.0 0.0 2.2
6-14 0.7% 1.4% 1.4% 13.0 0.0 0.7
5-15 0.1% 0.1
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 43.7% 6.6% 37.1% 9.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.4 2.7 5.5 8.5 12.0 11.9 0.8 0.0 56.3 39.7%