TCU
Big 12
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+9.3#53
Expected Predictive Rating+7.4#68
Pace73.6#74
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+4.7#60
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+4.6#57
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.1% 0.2% 0.1%
#1 Seed 0.4% 1.0% 0.2%
Top 2 Seed 1.3% 2.8% 0.7%
Top 4 Seed 5.7% 11.1% 3.7%
Top 6 Seed 13.6% 24.1% 9.7%
NCAA Tourney Bid 38.4% 55.8% 31.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 37.7% 55.0% 31.3%
Average Seed 7.5 7.0 7.8
.500 or above 61.6% 79.1% 55.1%
.500 or above in Conference 34.9% 45.2% 31.1%
Conference Champion 1.0% 1.7% 0.7%
Last Place in Conference 9.6% 6.0% 10.9%
First Four5.1% 5.8% 4.9%
First Round35.7% 52.7% 29.4%
Second Round20.7% 31.9% 16.5%
Sweet Sixteen8.1% 13.3% 6.1%
Elite Eight3.1% 5.2% 2.3%
Final Four1.1% 1.9% 0.8%
Championship Game0.4% 0.7% 0.3%
National Champion0.1% 0.2% 0.1%

Next Game: Michigan (Away) - 27.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a2 - 82 - 8
Quad 1b2 - 34 - 11
Quad 24 - 38 - 14
Quad 34 - 112 - 15
Quad 45 - 017 - 15


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 355   Florida A&M W 105-59 98%     1 - 0 +28.9 +26.2 +3.2
  Nov 08, 2024 239   Florida Gulf Coast W 67-51 92%     2 - 0 +9.4 -2.0 +12.9
  Nov 12, 2024 146   Texas St. W 76-71 85%     3 - 0 +3.0 +1.2 +1.6
  Nov 15, 2024 25   @ Michigan L 72-78 27%    
  Nov 19, 2024 352   Alcorn St. W 85-60 99%    
  Nov 28, 2024 111   Santa Clara W 80-75 69%    
  Dec 05, 2024 41   Xavier W 81-79 56%    
  Dec 08, 2024 83   Vanderbilt W 78-76 58%    
  Dec 16, 2024 198   South Alabama W 81-66 91%    
  Dec 22, 2024 165   Montana St. W 82-70 87%    
  Dec 30, 2024 8   @ Arizona L 74-85 16%    
  Jan 04, 2025 42   Kansas St. W 74-72 56%    
  Jan 06, 2025 2   @ Houston L 62-75 12%    
  Jan 11, 2025 32   BYU W 78-77 51%    
  Jan 15, 2025 51   Utah W 78-75 60%    
  Jan 19, 2025 13   @ Baylor L 70-79 22%    
  Jan 22, 2025 5   Kansas L 74-81 28%    
  Jan 25, 2025 66   @ Central Florida L 73-75 43%    
  Jan 29, 2025 14   @ Texas Tech L 69-78 23%    
  Feb 02, 2025 76   Colorado W 75-70 66%    
  Feb 05, 2025 57   West Virginia W 76-73 62%    
  Feb 08, 2025 11   @ Iowa St. L 67-77 19%    
  Feb 12, 2025 87   Oklahoma St. W 78-72 69%    
  Feb 15, 2025 72   @ Arizona St. L 74-75 45%    
  Feb 18, 2025 14   Texas Tech L 72-75 42%    
  Feb 22, 2025 22   @ Cincinnati L 70-77 29%    
  Feb 25, 2025 57   @ West Virginia L 73-76 42%    
  Mar 01, 2025 66   Central Florida W 76-72 63%    
  Mar 04, 2025 13   Baylor L 73-76 40%    
  Mar 08, 2025 76   @ Colorado L 72-73 45%    
Projected Record 16 - 14 8 - 12




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big 12 Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 1.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0 1.7 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.2 0.9 1.1 0.6 0.1 0.0 2.8 3rd
4th 0.2 1.1 1.8 0.8 0.1 0.0 4.0 4th
5th 0.2 1.2 2.3 1.2 0.2 0.0 5.1 5th
6th 0.0 0.9 2.9 2.1 0.4 0.0 6.3 6th
7th 0.0 0.5 3.0 2.8 0.6 0.0 6.9 7th
8th 0.0 0.3 2.5 3.6 1.3 0.1 0.0 7.7 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 1.8 4.4 2.1 0.2 0.0 8.6 9th
10th 0.1 1.0 3.9 3.3 0.4 0.0 8.7 10th
11th 0.0 0.6 3.3 4.1 1.0 0.0 9.1 11th
12th 0.0 0.3 2.6 4.3 1.6 0.1 9.0 12th
13th 0.0 0.3 1.9 4.1 2.4 0.3 0.0 8.9 13th
14th 0.0 0.2 1.3 3.3 2.6 0.5 0.0 7.9 14th
15th 0.0 0.3 1.4 2.5 2.0 0.5 0.1 6.8 15th
16th 0.2 0.5 1.3 1.8 1.3 0.4 0.0 5.5 16th
Total 0.2 0.6 1.7 3.4 5.4 7.8 10.5 11.7 12.0 11.9 10.2 8.6 6.3 4.5 2.7 1.6 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0 Total



Big 12 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1 100.0% 0.0    0.0
18-2 79.5% 0.1    0.1 0.0
17-3 75.9% 0.2    0.1 0.1 0.0
16-4 46.9% 0.3    0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
15-5 15.3% 0.2    0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
14-6 2.6% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
13-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 1.0% 1.0 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1 0.0% 0.0 0.0
18-2 0.1% 100.0% 25.6% 74.4% 1.5 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
17-3 0.3% 100.0% 18.4% 81.6% 2.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
16-4 0.7% 100.0% 11.7% 88.3% 2.7 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
15-5 1.6% 100.0% 7.7% 92.3% 3.4 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 100.0%
14-6 2.7% 100.0% 7.7% 92.3% 4.4 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.8 0.7 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
13-7 4.5% 99.7% 4.5% 95.2% 5.6 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.1 1.0 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.7%
12-8 6.3% 97.0% 2.3% 94.7% 6.7 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.9 1.4 1.3 1.0 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.2 96.9%
11-9 8.6% 90.1% 0.9% 89.2% 7.9 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.0 1.5 1.6 1.4 1.0 0.5 0.0 0.8 90.0%
10-10 10.2% 72.9% 0.8% 72.1% 9.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.9 1.3 1.6 1.6 1.3 0.2 0.0 2.8 72.7%
9-11 11.9% 42.8% 0.3% 42.5% 10.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.9 1.2 2.0 0.4 0.0 0.0 6.8 42.6%
8-12 12.0% 15.1% 0.2% 14.9% 10.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.9 0.4 0.0 10.2 14.9%
7-13 11.7% 2.9% 0.0% 2.9% 11.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.0 11.3 2.9%
6-14 10.5% 0.2% 0.2% 11.5 0.0 0.0 10.5 0.2%
5-15 7.8% 7.8
4-16 5.4% 5.4
3-17 3.4% 3.4
2-18 1.7% 1.7
1-19 0.6% 0.6
0-20 0.2% 0.2
Total 100% 38.4% 1.1% 37.3% 7.5 0.4 0.9 1.8 2.6 3.6 4.3 4.7 4.8 4.8 4.4 4.9 1.1 0.0 0.0 61.6 37.7%