TCU
Big 12
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating+6.1#85
Expected Predictive Rating-21.6#364
Pace66.5#237
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+1.9#109
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+4.2#64
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.6% 0.7% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 5.7% 5.7% 1.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 5.5% 5.6% 1.0%
Average Seed 8.7 8.7 9.0
.500 or above 33.7% 34.2% 7.5%
.500 or above in Conference 18.0% 18.2% 6.6%
Conference Champion 0.2% 0.2% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 20.1% 19.7% 39.1%
First Four1.2% 1.2% 0.2%
First Round5.1% 5.2% 0.7%
Second Round2.5% 2.6% 0.2%
Sweet Sixteen0.7% 0.7% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.3% 0.3% 0.0%
Final Four0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: St. Francis (PA) (Home) - 97.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 71 - 7
Quad 1b1 - 32 - 11
Quad 23 - 45 - 15
Quad 33 - 18 - 16
Quad 46 - 114 - 17


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 03, 2025 268   New Orleans L 74-78 91%     0 - 1 -12.6 -8.8 -3.5
  Nov 06, 2025 352   St. Francis (PA) W 79-58 98%    
  Nov 10, 2025 218   Lamar W 71-59 87%    
  Nov 14, 2025 5   Michigan L 67-78 16%    
  Nov 19, 2025 298   UMKC W 73-56 93%    
  Nov 27, 2025 6   Florida L 66-80 11%    
  Dec 05, 2025 60   Notre Dame W 68-67 50%    
  Dec 07, 2025 98   @ North Texas L 60-62 44%    
  Dec 15, 2025 233   Incarnate Word W 75-62 87%    
  Dec 18, 2025 315   Oral Roberts W 79-61 94%    
  Dec 21, 2025 346   Florida A&M W 81-60 96%    
  Dec 29, 2025 262   Jackson St. W 77-62 90%    
  Jan 03, 2026 29   Baylor L 68-73 33%    
  Jan 06, 2026 13   @ Kansas L 62-76 11%    
  Jan 10, 2026 9   Arizona L 69-78 21%    
  Jan 14, 2026 12   @ BYU L 64-79 10%    
  Jan 17, 2026 82   @ Utah L 70-73 39%    
  Jan 20, 2026 66   Oklahoma St. W 74-73 54%    
  Jan 24, 2026 29   @ Baylor L 65-76 18%    
  Jan 28, 2026 1   Houston L 56-70 11%    
  Feb 01, 2026 95   @ Colorado L 68-70 42%    
  Feb 07, 2026 62   Kansas St. W 69-68 52%    
  Feb 10, 2026 18   Iowa St. L 65-72 28%    
  Feb 14, 2026 66   @ Oklahoma St. L 71-76 34%    
  Feb 17, 2026 83   @ Central Florida L 73-76 40%    
  Feb 21, 2026 63   West Virginia W 66-65 53%    
  Feb 24, 2026 75   Arizona St. W 71-69 56%    
  Feb 28, 2026 62   @ Kansas St. L 65-71 32%    
  Mar 03, 2026 16   @ Texas Tech L 62-76 13%    
  Mar 07, 2026 42   Cincinnati L 67-70 40%    
Projected Record 14 - 16 6 - 12




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big 12 Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.5 2nd
3rd 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.1 0.0 1.1 3rd
4th 0.1 0.6 0.8 0.2 0.0 0.0 1.7 4th
5th 0.1 0.7 1.1 0.4 0.0 2.3 5th
6th 0.0 0.7 1.5 1.0 0.1 3.3 6th
7th 0.0 0.5 2.2 1.5 0.2 4.4 7th
8th 0.2 2.2 2.6 0.5 0.0 5.6 8th
9th 0.1 1.6 3.6 1.4 0.1 6.7 9th
10th 0.0 1.0 4.2 2.5 0.2 7.9 10th
11th 0.0 0.5 3.8 3.9 0.7 9.0 11th
12th 0.0 0.3 3.2 5.4 1.5 0.1 10.5 12th
13th 0.2 2.4 5.6 2.5 0.2 11.0 13th
14th 0.2 2.1 5.1 3.6 0.4 0.0 11.5 14th
15th 0.4 2.3 5.3 3.5 0.6 0.0 12.1 15th
16th 1.1 3.3 4.6 2.5 0.6 0.0 12.1 16th
Total 1.1 3.7 7.0 10.1 12.0 13.7 13.2 11.7 9.5 7.3 4.4 3.1 1.7 1.0 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 Total



Big 12 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1 100.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
16-2 71.4% 0.1    0.0 0.0
15-3 45.5% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0
14-4 13.3% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
13-5 4.7% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-6 0.3% 0.0    0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.2% 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
16-2 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
15-3 0.2% 100.0% 6.1% 93.9% 5.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
14-4 0.4% 96.0% 1.3% 94.7% 6.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 95.9%
13-5 1.0% 89.1% 2.1% 87.0% 7.7 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.1 88.8%
12-6 1.7% 63.9% 1.2% 62.8% 8.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.6 63.5%
11-7 3.1% 47.7% 0.8% 46.9% 9.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.2 1.6 47.3%
10-8 4.4% 21.8% 0.2% 21.6% 9.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.2 3.4 21.6%
9-9 7.3% 7.2% 0.2% 7.0% 10.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.0 6.7 7.0%
8-10 9.5% 1.1% 0.2% 0.8% 10.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 9.4 0.8%
7-11 11.7% 0.3% 0.1% 0.3% 10.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 11.7 0.3%
6-12 13.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 12.3 0.0 0.0 13.1 0.0%
5-13 13.7% 0.0% 0.0% 13.0 0.0 13.7
4-14 12.0% 12.0
3-15 10.1% 10.1
2-16 7.0% 7.0
1-17 3.7% 3.7
0-18 1.1% 1.1
Total 100% 5.7% 0.2% 5.5% 8.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.6 1.0 1.1 1.5 0.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 94.4 5.5%