TCU
Big 12
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+8.7#62
Expected Predictive Rating+9.0#63
Pace67.4#217
Improvement+1.6#113

Offense
Total Offense+2.0#125
First Shot+0.2#170
After Offensive Rebound+1.8#78
Layup/Dunks+3.2#74
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.6#208
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.0#238
Freethrows-0.5#207
Improvement+2.8#46

Defense
Total Defense+6.7#26
First Shot+6.0#31
After Offensive Rebounds+0.8#114
Layups/Dunks+2.2#91
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.6#249
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.2#53
Freethrows+1.1#107
Improvement-1.2#243
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.3% 0.8% 0.1%
NCAA Tourney Bid 13.7% 25.9% 10.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 13.5% 25.7% 9.9%
Average Seed 9.7 9.4 9.9
.500 or above 51.6% 71.3% 45.7%
.500 or above in Conference 31.2% 51.1% 25.2%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 1.5% 0.3% 1.9%
First Four5.4% 8.4% 4.5%
First Round10.7% 21.1% 7.6%
Second Round4.1% 8.4% 2.8%
Sweet Sixteen0.9% 1.8% 0.6%
Elite Eight0.2% 0.4% 0.2%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Kansas (Home) - 23.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a2 - 82 - 8
Quad 1b1 - 33 - 11
Quad 24 - 57 - 15
Quad 35 - 112 - 16
Quad 44 - 016 - 16


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 360   Florida A&M W 105-59 98%     1 - 0 +28.6 +25.9 +3.1
  Nov 08, 2024 168   Florida Gulf Coast W 67-51 86%     2 - 0 +12.9 -1.0 +15.4
  Nov 12, 2024 167   Texas St. W 76-71 86%     3 - 0 +2.0 -3.6 +5.4
  Nov 15, 2024 11   @ Michigan L 64-76 15%     3 - 1 +8.0 -2.9 +11.3
  Nov 19, 2024 332   Alcorn St. W 71-48 97%     4 - 1 +9.3 -2.8 +13.7
  Nov 28, 2024 67   Santa Clara L 52-69 51%     4 - 2 -8.6 -17.2 +8.3
  Nov 29, 2024 76   Colorado St. L 72-76 OT 55%     4 - 3 +3.3 -4.6 +8.3
  Dec 05, 2024 41   Xavier W 76-72 49%     5 - 3 +12.9 +12.1 +1.0
  Dec 08, 2024 48   Vanderbilt L 74-83 42%     5 - 4 +1.7 +1.7 +0.6
  Dec 16, 2024 126   South Alabama W 58-49 80%     6 - 4 +8.6 -4.3 +14.4
  Dec 22, 2024 180   Montana St. W 82-48 87%     7 - 4 +30.4 +9.1 +21.8
  Dec 30, 2024 13   @ Arizona L 81-90 15%     7 - 5 0 - 1 +10.7 +23.3 -13.3
  Jan 04, 2025 89   Kansas St. W 63-62 69%     8 - 5 1 - 1 +4.6 -3.3 +8.0
  Jan 06, 2025 3   @ Houston L 46-65 8%     8 - 6 1 - 2 +5.3 -4.7 +6.4
  Jan 11, 2025 44   BYU W 71-67 50%     9 - 6 2 - 2 +12.7 +5.4 +7.5
  Jan 15, 2025 69   Utah L 65-73 63%     9 - 7 2 - 3 -2.7 -1.7 -1.3
  Jan 19, 2025 22   @ Baylor W 74-71 19%     10 - 7 3 - 3 +21.0 +11.3 +9.8
  Jan 22, 2025 6   Kansas L 65-73 23%    
  Jan 25, 2025 71   @ Central Florida L 72-74 43%    
  Jan 29, 2025 17   @ Texas Tech L 64-75 16%    
  Feb 02, 2025 94   Colorado W 71-66 70%    
  Feb 05, 2025 32   West Virginia L 65-66 45%    
  Feb 08, 2025 4   @ Iowa St. L 62-77 9%    
  Feb 12, 2025 101   Oklahoma St. W 74-67 75%    
  Feb 15, 2025 64   @ Arizona St. L 68-71 39%    
  Feb 18, 2025 17   Texas Tech L 67-72 34%    
  Feb 22, 2025 39   @ Cincinnati L 61-67 28%    
  Feb 25, 2025 32   @ West Virginia L 62-69 26%    
  Mar 01, 2025 71   Central Florida W 75-71 64%    
  Mar 04, 2025 22   Baylor L 67-71 36%    
  Mar 08, 2025 94   @ Colorado L 68-69 48%    
Projected Record 16 - 15 9 - 11




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big 12 Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.7 3rd
4th 0.1 0.5 0.8 0.2 1.6 4th
5th 0.0 0.8 1.5 0.7 0.0 3.0 5th
6th 0.0 0.7 2.7 1.6 0.1 5.2 6th
7th 0.0 0.8 4.8 3.8 0.8 10.2 7th
8th 0.5 4.8 6.4 1.4 0.1 13.2 8th
9th 0.2 3.8 7.8 2.9 0.1 14.8 9th
10th 0.1 2.1 8.3 4.2 0.4 15.0 10th
11th 0.0 1.0 6.1 5.6 0.8 13.5 11th
12th 0.2 3.4 5.2 1.1 0.0 9.9 12th
13th 0.0 1.3 3.9 1.6 0.1 6.8 13th
14th 0.4 2.2 1.6 0.1 4.3 14th
15th 0.0 0.6 0.7 0.1 1.4 15th
16th 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.4 16th
Total 0.1 1.2 4.5 10.0 15.3 19.4 18.4 15.2 8.9 4.5 1.8 0.7 0.1 0.0 Total



Big 12 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4 0.0%
15-5 23.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0
14-6 0.0%
13-7 0.0%
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4 0.0% 0.0
15-5 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
14-6 0.7% 100.0% 3.0% 97.0% 7.3 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.1 100.0%
13-7 1.8% 87.9% 1.6% 86.3% 8.3 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.2 87.7%
12-8 4.5% 73.8% 0.7% 73.1% 9.2 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.1 0.9 0.5 1.2 73.6%
11-9 8.9% 48.1% 0.3% 47.8% 10.2 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.6 1.3 2.0 0.0 4.6 48.0%
10-10 15.2% 19.7% 0.1% 19.7% 10.7 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 2.0 0.2 12.2 19.7%
9-11 18.4% 3.5% 0.1% 3.4% 11.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.1 17.7 3.4%
8-12 19.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 10.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 19.3 0.1%
7-13 15.3% 0.1% 0.1% 11.0 0.0 15.3 0.1%
6-14 10.0% 10.0
5-15 4.5% 4.5
4-16 1.2% 1.2
3-17 0.1% 0.1
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 13.7% 0.2% 13.5% 9.7 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.9 1.7 2.5 3.0 4.9 0.4 86.3 13.5%