Montana St.
Big Sky
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+1.1#139
Expected Predictive Rating-3.1#222
Pace67.9#213
Improvement-0.6#234

Offense
Total Offense+0.9#142
First Shot+4.0#72
After Offensive Rebound-3.1#334
Layup/Dunks-3.2#287
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.9#119
3 Pt Jumpshots+8.2#11
Freethrows-1.8#281
Improvement-1.3#285

Defense
Total Defense+0.3#163
First Shot+1.0#143
After Offensive Rebounds-0.8#251
Layups/Dunks-3.4#303
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.6#141
3 Pt Jumpshots+4.0#38
Freethrows-0.2#201
Improvement+0.6#143
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 30.5% 33.7% 27.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.3 14.0 14.5
.500 or above 82.1% 90.2% 75.2%
.500 or above in Conference 93.9% 95.7% 92.4%
Conference Champion 45.1% 50.1% 40.8%
Last Place in Conference 0.4% 0.3% 0.6%
First Four1.6% 0.9% 2.2%
First Round30.0% 33.3% 27.0%
Second Round2.2% 2.8% 1.7%
Sweet Sixteen0.4% 0.5% 0.3%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: UC Riverside (Away) - 46.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 15 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 3
Quad 20 - 20 - 5
Quad 33 - 44 - 9
Quad 415 - 519 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 07, 2024 35   @ Wisconsin L 67-79 10%     0 - 1 +3.1 +3.7 -1.4
  Nov 09, 2024 100   @ Wichita St. L 69-89 25%     0 - 2 -12.0 +1.3 -13.4
  Nov 17, 2024 325   @ Denver L 78-79 76%     0 - 3 -7.2 -5.6 -1.5
  Nov 19, 2024 59   @ Northwestern L 69-72 15%     0 - 4 +9.2 +10.7 -1.7
  Nov 24, 2024 282   Southern Miss W 79-59 84%     1 - 4 +10.6 +0.1 +9.7
  Nov 26, 2024 188   Abilene Christian W 85-59 70%     2 - 4 +21.7 +17.4 +6.5
  Nov 30, 2024 148   Cal St. Northridge L 69-72 OT 64%     2 - 5 -5.5 -8.0 +2.7
  Dec 04, 2024 294   @ Nebraska Omaha W 76-65 69%     3 - 5 +7.0 +7.4 +0.6
  Dec 07, 2024 271   UMKC W 74-62 83%     4 - 5 +3.1 +6.7 -2.1
  Dec 15, 2024 80   @ USC L 63-89 20%     4 - 6 -16.1 -9.3 -4.9
  Dec 18, 2024 177   @ UC Riverside L 70-71 46%    
  Dec 22, 2024 86   @ TCU L 66-74 22%    
  Jan 02, 2025 291   @ Idaho W 74-69 68%    
  Jan 04, 2025 251   @ Eastern Washington W 77-74 62%    
  Jan 09, 2025 192   Northern Colorado W 79-73 70%    
  Jan 11, 2025 286   Northern Arizona W 79-68 84%    
  Jan 16, 2025 231   @ Idaho St. W 68-66 57%    
  Jan 18, 2025 208   @ Weber St. W 72-71 52%    
  Jan 20, 2025 251   Eastern Washington W 80-71 80%    
  Jan 25, 2025 212   @ Montana W 75-74 53%    
  Jan 30, 2025 329   Sacramento St. W 73-59 90%    
  Feb 01, 2025 276   Portland St. W 80-70 82%    
  Feb 06, 2025 286   @ Northern Arizona W 76-71 67%    
  Feb 08, 2025 192   @ Northern Colorado L 76-77 49%    
  Feb 13, 2025 208   Weber St. W 75-68 72%    
  Feb 15, 2025 231   Idaho St. W 71-63 76%    
  Feb 22, 2025 212   Montana W 78-71 73%    
  Feb 27, 2025 276   @ Portland St. W 77-73 65%    
  Mar 01, 2025 329   @ Sacramento St. W 70-62 77%    
  Mar 03, 2025 291   Idaho W 77-66 84%    
Projected Record 17 - 13 13 - 5




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Sky Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.4 2.7 7.7 11.4 11.1 7.5 3.4 0.9 45.1 1st
2nd 0.0 0.3 3.1 7.3 6.9 3.2 0.8 0.1 21.7 2nd
3rd 0.2 2.2 5.5 3.7 1.0 0.1 12.8 3rd
4th 0.1 1.3 3.8 2.6 0.4 0.0 8.2 4th
5th 0.0 0.6 2.3 1.8 0.3 0.0 5.0 5th
6th 0.0 0.3 1.3 1.4 0.2 0.0 3.3 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 0.8 1.0 0.2 0.0 2.1 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.6 0.2 1.2 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.6 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 10th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.7 3.1 5.4 8.5 11.7 14.1 15.6 14.8 11.9 7.5 3.4 0.9 Total



Big Sky Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.9    0.9
17-1 100.0% 3.4    3.4 0.0
16-2 99.3% 7.5    7.2 0.3
15-3 93.4% 11.1    9.6 1.5 0.0
14-4 77.4% 11.4    7.9 3.2 0.3 0.0
13-5 49.2% 7.7    3.5 3.3 0.8 0.1 0.0
12-6 19.1% 2.7    0.5 1.2 0.8 0.2 0.0
11-7 3.1% 0.4    0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0% 0.0    0.0
9-9 0.0%
Total 45.1% 45.1 33.1 9.5 2.1 0.3 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.9% 58.6% 58.6% 12.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.4
17-1 3.4% 54.2% 54.2% 12.9 0.0 0.6 0.9 0.4 0.0 1.6
16-2 7.5% 48.2% 48.2% 13.4 0.4 1.7 1.3 0.2 0.0 3.9
15-3 11.9% 43.4% 43.4% 13.8 0.0 0.2 1.6 2.6 0.8 0.0 6.7
14-4 14.8% 37.2% 37.2% 14.2 0.1 0.9 2.7 1.7 0.1 9.3
13-5 15.6% 32.3% 32.3% 14.6 0.0 0.4 1.9 2.4 0.4 10.6
12-6 14.1% 25.6% 25.6% 15.0 0.1 0.8 2.1 0.7 10.5
11-7 11.7% 21.2% 21.2% 15.3 0.0 0.2 1.4 0.9 9.3
10-8 8.5% 17.4% 17.4% 15.6 0.0 0.0 0.5 0.9 7.0
9-9 5.4% 13.7% 13.7% 15.9 0.0 0.1 0.6 4.7
8-10 3.1% 10.0% 10.0% 16.0 0.0 0.3 2.8
7-11 1.7% 6.0% 6.0% 16.0 0.1 1.6
6-12 0.8% 4.3% 4.3% 16.0 0.0 0.8
5-13 0.3% 3.8% 3.8% 16.0 0.0 0.3
4-14 0.1% 3.6% 3.6% 16.0 0.0 0.1
3-15 0.0% 0.0
2-16 0.0% 0.0
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 30.5% 30.5% 0.0% 14.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 1.5 5.7 9.9 9.2 4.2 69.5 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 11.3 4.3 10.6 40.4 44.7