IN CC Stats - NCAA Basketball

Montana St.
Big Sky
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating	+0.0	#165
Expected Predictive Rating	-1.7	#224

Pace	70.5	#139
Improvement	-	-

Offense
Total Offense	+1.1	#149

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebound	-	-

Layup/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

Defense
Total Defense	-1.1	#206

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebounds	-	-

Layups/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

	Now	Win Next	Lose Next
#1 Overall Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
#1 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 2 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 4 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 6 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid	22.4%	24.9%	17.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Average Seed	14.2	14.0	14.6

.500 or above	65.4%	73.3%	49.2%
.500 or above in Conference	82.8%	86.1%	76.0%
Conference Champion	30.7%	34.4%	22.9%
Last Place in Conference	2.4%	1.7%	3.9%

First Four	2.0%	1.6%	2.7%
First Round	21.6%	24.2%	16.1%
Second Round	2.0%	2.5%	1.2%
Sweet Sixteen	0.4%	0.5%	0.3%
Elite Eight	0.1%	0.1%	0.0%
Final Four	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Championship Game	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
National Champion	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Next Game: Denver (Away) - 67.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding

Projected Record by Quad
Quad	Projected	Projected Cumulative
Quad 1a	0 - 1	0 - 1
Quad 1b	0 - 2	0 - 3
Quad 2	0 - 2	1 - 5
Quad 3	3 - 4	4 - 10
Quad 4	14 - 5	18 - 14

Date	Opponent		Result/Prediction			Record	Conf		Rating	Offense	Defense
Nov 07, 2024	38	@ Wisconsin	L	67-79	10%	0 - 1			+2.1	+5.1	-3.9
Nov 09, 2024	86	@ Wichita St.	L	69-89	18%	0 - 2			-10.3	+1.2	-11.7
Nov 17, 2024	309	@ Denver	W	80-75	67%
Nov 19, 2024	50	@ Northwestern	L	64-77	12%
Nov 24, 2024	231	Southern Miss	W	79-73	72%
Nov 26, 2024	237	Abilene Christian	W	77-70	72%
Nov 30, 2024	202	Cal St. Northridge	W	80-75	68%
Dec 04, 2024	266	@ Nebraska Omaha	W	75-73	58%
Dec 07, 2024	205	UMKC	W	74-69	69%
Dec 15, 2024	65	@ USC	L	70-82	15%
Dec 18, 2024	155	@ UC Riverside	L	73-77	38%
Dec 22, 2024	53	@ TCU	L	70-82	13%
Jan 02, 2025	282	@ Idaho	W	74-71	61%
Jan 04, 2025	228	@ Eastern Washington	W	80-79	51%
Jan 09, 2025	192	Northern Colorado	W	80-75	66%
Jan 11, 2025	288	Northern Arizona	W	81-71	80%
Jan 16, 2025	265	@ Idaho St.	W	68-66	58%
Jan 18, 2025	233	@ Weber St.	W	72-71	51%
Jan 20, 2025	228	Eastern Washington	W	83-77	70%
Jan 25, 2025	218	@ Montana	L	72-73	50%
Jan 30, 2025	296	Sacramento St.	W	72-62	80%
Feb 01, 2025	209	Portland St.	W	84-78	68%
Feb 06, 2025	288	@ Northern Arizona	W	78-74	62%
Feb 08, 2025	192	@ Northern Colorado	L	77-78	45%
Feb 13, 2025	233	Weber St.	W	74-68	71%
Feb 15, 2025	265	Idaho St.	W	71-63	76%
Feb 22, 2025	218	Montana	W	76-70	69%
Feb 27, 2025	209	@ Portland St.	L	80-81	49%
Mar 01, 2025	296	@ Sacramento St.	W	69-65	63%
Mar 03, 2025	282	Idaho	W	77-68	78%
Projected Record						16 - 14	11 - 7

Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.

Projected Big Sky Finish

	0-18	1-17	2-16	3-15	4-14	5-13	6-12	7-11	8-10	9-9	10-8	11-7	12-6	13-5	14-4	15-3	16-2	17-1	18-0		Total
1st											0.0	0.3	2.0	5.1	7.4	7.3	5.2	2.7	0.8		30.7	1st
2nd										0.0	0.3	2.7	6.1	5.8	3.0	0.8	0.1				18.8	2nd
3rd										0.3	2.5	5.4	4.0	1.2	0.1	0.0					13.6	3rd
4th								0.0	0.1	2.0	4.8	2.9	0.6	0.0							10.5	4th
5th								0.1	1.4	3.9	2.4	0.4	0.0								8.1	5th
6th						0.0	0.1	0.8	3.0	2.1	0.3	0.0									6.3	6th
7th						0.0	0.6	2.1	1.6	0.3	0.0										4.7	7th
8th					0.1	0.5	1.4	1.4	0.3	0.0											3.6	8th
9th			0.0	0.1	0.4	0.9	0.7	0.2	0.0												2.3	9th
10th	0.0	0.1	0.1	0.3	0.4	0.3	0.1	0.0													1.4	10th

Total	0.0	0.1	0.1	0.4	0.9	1.8	2.9	4.6	6.5	8.6	10.3	11.7	12.7	12.2	10.5	8.1	5.3	2.7	0.8			Total

Big Sky Regular Season Championship

Record	Champion	Total		Outright	2-Way	3-Way	4-Way	5-Way	6-Way	7-Way	8-Way
18-0	100.0%	0.8		0.8
17-1	100.0%	2.7		2.7	0.0
16-2	98.4%	5.2		4.9	0.3
15-3	89.8%	7.3		6.0	1.2	0.0
14-4	70.3%	7.4		4.7	2.3	0.3	0.0
13-5	42.2%	5.1		2.1	2.2	0.7	0.1
12-6	15.4%	2.0		0.4	0.8	0.6	0.1	0.0
11-7	2.2%	0.3		0.0	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.0	0.0
10-8	0.0%	0.0						0.0
9-9	0.0%

Total	30.7%	30.7		21.6	7.0	1.7	0.3	0.0	0.0

NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf Record	Record Chance		Tourney Bid	Auto	At-Large	Avg Seed		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	No Bid		At-Large if not Auto
18-0	0.8%		63.4%	63.4%		11.7						0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.1	0.2	0.0			0.3
17-1	2.7%		57.5%	57.4%	0.1%	12.6										0.0	0.0	0.1	0.5	0.6	0.2	0.0		1.1		0.3%
16-2	5.3%		50.9%	50.9%		13.2												0.1	0.6	1.2	0.7	0.2		2.6
15-3	8.1%		41.3%	41.3%		13.6												0.0	0.4	1.1	1.3	0.4	0.0	4.8
14-4	10.5%		35.5%	35.5%		14.0												0.0	0.1	0.9	1.6	1.0	0.1	6.8
13-5	12.2%		27.1%	27.1%		14.5													0.0	0.4	1.1	1.5	0.3	8.9
12-6	12.7%		21.1%	21.1%		14.8													0.0	0.2	0.7	1.3	0.5	10.0
11-7	11.7%		16.6%	16.6%		15.2														0.0	0.3	0.8	0.8	9.7
10-8	10.3%		12.6%	12.6%		15.5														0.0	0.1	0.4	0.8	9.0
9-9	8.6%		8.4%	8.4%		15.7														0.0	0.0	0.2	0.5	7.8
8-10	6.5%		6.1%	6.1%		15.9																0.0	0.4	6.1
7-11	4.6%		3.2%	3.2%		16.0																0.0	0.1	4.5
6-12	2.9%		2.0%	2.0%		16.0																	0.1	2.8
5-13	1.8%		1.1%	1.1%		16.0																	0.0	1.8
4-14	0.9%		0.4%	0.4%		16.0																	0.0	0.9
3-15	0.4%		0.8%	0.8%		16.0																	0.0	0.4
2-16	0.1%																							0.1
1-17	0.1%																							0.1
0-18	0.0%																							0.0

Total	100%		22.4%	22.4%	0.0%	14.2						0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.3	1.7	4.6	6.1	5.8	3.6	77.6		0.0%