Idaho
Big Sky
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-4.8#246
Expected Predictive Rating-5.0#246
Pace65.0#268
Improvement+2.8#60

Offense
Total Offense+0.6#161
First Shot-0.2#180
After Offensive Rebound+0.8#136
Layup/Dunks-0.8#212
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.5#266
3 Pt Jumpshots+4.5#56
Freethrows-2.3#312
Improvement+0.8#132

Defense
Total Defense-5.4#331
First Shot-5.4#335
After Offensive Rebounds+0.1#185
Layups/Dunks-0.5#188
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.7#343
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.0#239
Freethrows-1.2#271
Improvement+2.0#76
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 6.5% 8.3% 5.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.7 15.6 15.8
.500 or above 15.3% 26.1% 9.7%
.500 or above in Conference 59.7% 77.4% 50.4%
Conference Champion 4.5% 8.9% 2.2%
Last Place in Conference 2.9% 1.2% 3.8%
First Four3.5% 3.4% 3.6%
First Round5.0% 6.6% 4.2%
Second Round0.1% 0.0% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Montana (Away) - 34.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 2
Quad 20 - 20 - 5
Quad 33 - 53 - 10
Quad 410 - 813 - 18


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 07, 2024 228   UC Davis L 75-79 57%     0 - 1 -10.5 +0.9 -11.2
  Nov 11, 2024 85   @ Washington St. L 67-90 10%     0 - 2 -13.5 -4.2 -8.1
  Nov 16, 2024 44   @ BYU L 71-95 5%     0 - 3 -9.8 +2.2 -11.4
  Nov 23, 2024 240   Southern Utah L 67-82 48%     0 - 4 -19.4 +7.0 -29.6
  Nov 24, 2024 290   @ San Diego L 61-68 50%     0 - 5 -11.7 -11.6 -0.1
  Nov 30, 2024 175   UC Riverside W 80-68 44%     1 - 5 +8.7 +14.3 -4.3
  Dec 04, 2024 223   @ UMKC W 82-77 35%     2 - 5 +4.2 +12.3 -7.9
  Dec 07, 2024 70   @ Oregon St. L 62-78 8%     2 - 6 -5.4 +0.1 -7.3
  Dec 15, 2024 79   UC San Diego L 56-80 19%     2 - 7 -19.5 -12.5 -8.1
  Dec 18, 2024 228   @ UC Davis L 66-74 36%     2 - 8 -9.0 -3.3 -5.6
  Dec 21, 2024 302   @ Pacific W 95-72 51%     3 - 8 +17.9 +24.1 -4.9
  Jan 02, 2025 180   Montana St. W 69-64 46%     4 - 8 1 - 0 +1.4 -4.7 +6.1
  Jan 04, 2025 226   Montana L 71-73 56%     4 - 9 1 - 1 -8.4 -4.3 -4.1
  Jan 09, 2025 337   @ Sacramento St. W 80-67 65%     5 - 9 2 - 1 +4.3 +17.1 -11.1
  Jan 11, 2025 227   @ Portland St. L 63-75 36%     5 - 10 2 - 2 -13.0 -4.2 -9.6
  Jan 18, 2025 257   Eastern Washington W 83-76 63%     6 - 10 3 - 2 -1.1 +8.8 -9.6
  Jan 20, 2025 226   @ Montana L 72-76 34%    
  Jan 23, 2025 166   Northern Colorado L 77-79 45%    
  Jan 25, 2025 264   Northern Arizona W 76-72 65%    
  Jan 30, 2025 237   @ Weber St. L 71-74 38%    
  Feb 01, 2025 217   @ Idaho St. L 68-72 34%    
  Feb 06, 2025 227   Portland St. W 74-72 57%    
  Feb 08, 2025 337   Sacramento St. W 71-62 81%    
  Feb 15, 2025 257   @ Eastern Washington L 75-77 41%    
  Feb 20, 2025 264   @ Northern Arizona L 73-75 43%    
  Feb 22, 2025 166   @ Northern Colorado L 75-82 24%    
  Feb 27, 2025 217   Idaho St. W 70-69 55%    
  Mar 01, 2025 237   Weber St. W 74-72 59%    
  Mar 03, 2025 180   @ Montana St. L 69-76 26%    
Projected Record 12 - 17 9 - 9




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Sky Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.3 1.3 1.8 0.9 0.2 0.1 4.5 1st
2nd 0.7 4.4 3.7 1.5 0.3 10.5 2nd
3rd 0.4 5.1 5.6 1.3 0.1 12.5 3rd
4th 0.2 4.3 7.9 1.7 0.1 14.2 4th
5th 0.1 2.5 9.0 3.4 0.2 15.1 5th
6th 0.1 1.4 7.3 4.8 0.3 13.8 6th
7th 0.0 0.8 5.1 5.7 0.5 12.1 7th
8th 0.0 0.6 3.9 4.6 1.2 0.0 10.4 8th
9th 0.0 0.4 1.8 2.5 1.0 0.0 5.7 9th
10th 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.2 0.0 1.2 10th
Total 0.1 0.9 2.9 7.4 12.2 16.9 19.1 17.4 12.1 6.3 3.4 1.2 0.2 0.1 Total



Big Sky Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2 100.0% 0.1    0.0 0.0
15-3 100.0% 0.2    0.2 0.1
14-4 74.8% 0.9    0.6 0.2 0.0
13-5 53.1% 1.8    0.9 0.7 0.2
12-6 20.2% 1.3    0.3 0.6 0.4 0.1
11-7 2.3% 0.3    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 4.5% 4.5 2.0 1.6 0.7 0.2 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
15-3 0.2% 20.8% 20.8% 14.4 0.0 0.0 0.2
14-4 1.2% 25.2% 25.2% 14.7 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.9
13-5 3.4% 17.5% 17.5% 15.3 0.0 0.4 0.2 2.8
12-6 6.3% 15.6% 15.6% 15.5 0.5 0.5 5.3
11-7 12.1% 10.4% 10.4% 15.8 0.3 1.0 10.9
10-8 17.4% 7.5% 7.5% 16.0 0.0 1.3 16.1
9-9 19.1% 5.5% 5.5% 16.0 1.0 18.0
8-10 16.9% 3.2% 3.2% 16.0 0.5 16.4
7-11 12.2% 1.9% 1.9% 16.0 0.2 11.9
6-12 7.4% 1.3% 1.3% 16.0 0.1 7.3
5-13 2.9% 1.1% 1.1% 16.0 0.0 2.8
4-14 0.9% 0.9
3-15 0.1% 0.1
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 6.5% 6.5% 0.0% 15.7 0.0 0.0 0.2 1.4 4.9 93.5 0.0%