Idaho
Big Sky
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-6.8#291
Expected Predictive Rating-6.9#285
Pace63.8#312
Improvement+0.9#119

Offense
Total Offense-0.8#193
First Shot-1.7#218
After Offensive Rebound+0.8#132
Layup/Dunks+0.0#184
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.1#299
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.9#92
Freethrows-2.5#314
Improvement-0.2#191

Defense
Total Defense-6.0#346
First Shot-5.6#342
After Offensive Rebounds-0.4#214
Layups/Dunks-2.7#268
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.9#317
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.0#192
Freethrows-1.0#250
Improvement+1.1#97
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 3.1% 4.4% 2.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.7 15.6 15.8
.500 or above 8.1% 16.4% 5.8%
.500 or above in Conference 33.8% 42.4% 31.5%
Conference Champion 2.7% 4.0% 2.3%
Last Place in Conference 18.6% 13.9% 19.9%
First Four1.9% 2.1% 1.9%
First Round2.3% 3.5% 1.9%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: UC Davis (Away) - 21.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 2
Quad 20 - 20 - 4
Quad 32 - 72 - 11
Quad 48 - 911 - 20


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 07, 2024 184   UC Davis L 75-79 40%     0 - 1 -8.2 +1.4 -9.5
  Nov 11, 2024 68   @ Washington St. L 67-90 6%     0 - 2 -12.0 -2.9 -8.0
  Nov 16, 2024 44   @ BYU L 71-95 4%     0 - 3 -10.0 +1.6 -11.1
  Nov 23, 2024 210   Southern Utah L 67-82 34%     0 - 4 -17.4 +6.6 -27.3
  Nov 24, 2024 315   @ San Diego L 61-68 46%     0 - 5 -12.8 -11.6 -1.2
  Nov 30, 2024 177   UC Riverside W 80-68 39%     1 - 5 +8.1 +14.3 -4.9
  Dec 04, 2024 271   @ UMKC W 82-77 35%     2 - 5 +2.1 +10.8 -8.6
  Dec 07, 2024 67   @ Oregon St. L 62-78 6%     2 - 6 -4.8 +2.6 -9.3
  Dec 15, 2024 95   UC San Diego L 56-80 18%     2 - 7 -21.3 -13.0 -9.3
  Dec 18, 2024 184   @ UC Davis L 66-75 21%    
  Dec 21, 2024 264   @ Pacific L 69-73 35%    
  Jan 02, 2025 139   Montana St. L 69-74 32%    
  Jan 04, 2025 212   Montana L 74-75 45%    
  Jan 09, 2025 329   @ Sacramento St. W 67-66 51%    
  Jan 11, 2025 276   @ Portland St. L 73-77 36%    
  Jan 18, 2025 251   Eastern Washington W 76-75 55%    
  Jan 20, 2025 212   @ Montana L 71-78 25%    
  Jan 23, 2025 192   Northern Colorado L 75-77 42%    
  Jan 25, 2025 286   Northern Arizona W 75-72 61%    
  Jan 30, 2025 208   @ Weber St. L 68-75 25%    
  Feb 01, 2025 231   @ Idaho St. L 64-70 29%    
  Feb 06, 2025 276   Portland St. W 76-74 58%    
  Feb 08, 2025 329   Sacramento St. W 69-63 71%    
  Feb 15, 2025 251   @ Eastern Washington L 73-78 33%    
  Feb 20, 2025 286   @ Northern Arizona L 72-75 39%    
  Feb 22, 2025 192   @ Northern Colorado L 72-80 23%    
  Feb 27, 2025 231   Idaho St. L 67-68 50%    
  Mar 01, 2025 208   Weber St. L 71-72 45%    
  Mar 03, 2025 139   @ Montana St. L 66-77 16%    
Projected Record 10 - 19 7 - 11




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Sky Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.6 0.9 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 2.7 1st
2nd 0.3 1.4 1.9 0.9 0.2 0.0 4.8 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.3 2.2 3.0 1.1 0.2 0.0 6.8 3rd
4th 0.0 0.2 2.5 4.1 1.5 0.1 0.0 8.5 4th
5th 0.0 0.2 2.6 5.4 2.1 0.1 0.0 10.6 5th
6th 0.0 0.3 2.6 6.1 3.0 0.2 0.0 12.2 6th
7th 0.0 0.3 2.7 6.4 3.8 0.4 0.0 13.6 7th
8th 0.0 0.5 3.0 6.5 4.0 0.6 0.0 14.6 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 1.1 3.7 5.6 3.5 0.6 0.0 14.7 9th
10th 0.1 0.8 1.9 3.2 3.5 1.8 0.4 0.0 11.6 10th
Total 0.1 0.8 2.0 4.3 7.7 10.7 13.4 13.9 13.3 11.6 8.9 6.2 3.7 2.0 0.9 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 Total



Big Sky Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
17-1 100.0% 0.0    0.0
16-2 100.0% 0.1    0.1 0.0
15-3 89.6% 0.3    0.3 0.1
14-4 72.0% 0.6    0.4 0.2 0.0
13-5 43.4% 0.9    0.4 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0
12-6 15.8% 0.6    0.1 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0
11-7 2.1% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0
9-9 0.0%
Total 2.7% 2.7 1.3 0.9 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.0% 0.0
17-1 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
16-2 0.1% 28.3% 28.3% 14.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
15-3 0.3% 26.0% 26.0% 14.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.3
14-4 0.9% 16.1% 16.1% 14.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.7
13-5 2.0% 13.7% 13.7% 15.2 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.1 1.7
12-6 3.7% 11.1% 11.1% 15.6 0.0 0.2 0.2 3.3
11-7 6.2% 7.9% 7.9% 15.8 0.0 0.1 0.4 5.7
10-8 8.9% 5.7% 5.7% 16.0 0.0 0.5 8.4
9-9 11.6% 4.0% 4.0% 16.0 0.5 11.1
8-10 13.3% 2.3% 2.3% 16.0 0.3 13.0
7-11 13.9% 1.3% 1.3% 16.0 0.2 13.8
6-12 13.4% 0.9% 0.9% 16.0 0.1 13.2
5-13 10.7% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.1 10.6
4-14 7.7% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.1 7.7
3-15 4.3% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 4.3
2-16 2.0% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 2.0
1-17 0.8% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 0.8
0-18 0.1% 0.1
Total 100% 3.1% 3.1% 0.0% 15.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.6 2.4 96.9 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.1%