Oregon St.
West Coast
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+8.2#67
Expected Predictive Rating+7.5#87
Pace63.6#316
Improvement+0.7#135

Offense
Total Offense+3.3#90
First Shot+4.1#68
After Offensive Rebound-0.7#228
Layup/Dunks+0.1#182
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.8#122
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.7#97
Freethrows+0.5#149
Improvement+0.4#151

Defense
Total Defense+4.8#56
First Shot+4.3#62
After Offensive Rebounds+0.6#139
Layups/Dunks+6.0#28
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.4#291
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.6#309
Freethrows+3.2#17
Improvement+0.3#163
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.3% 0.3% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 9.0% 9.1% 4.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 4.2% 4.2% 1.7%
Average Seed 10.4 10.4 11.0
.500 or above 98.7% 98.9% 91.3%
.500 or above in Conference 91.6% 91.8% 82.5%
Conference Champion 4.8% 4.8% 3.2%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.3%
First Four2.3% 2.4% 0.9%
First Round7.9% 8.0% 4.4%
Second Round3.1% 3.2% 1.5%
Sweet Sixteen0.9% 0.9% 0.3%
Elite Eight0.3% 0.3% 0.2%
Final Four0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Sacramento St. (Home) - 97.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 30 - 3
Quad 1b1 - 21 - 5
Quad 23 - 34 - 8
Quad 34 - 18 - 9
Quad 412 - 120 - 10


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 298   Utah Tech W 80-57 95%     1 - 0 +12.7 +2.2 +10.6
  Nov 08, 2024 208   Weber St. W 76-48 89%     2 - 0 +22.6 +5.9 +19.3
  Nov 15, 2024 278   Cal St. Fullerton W 70-51 94%     3 - 0 +9.9 +3.6 +8.8
  Nov 21, 2024 23   Oregon L 75-78 39%     3 - 1 +8.0 +11.2 -3.3
  Nov 25, 2024 72   @ North Texas L 55-58 41%     3 - 2 +7.6 +2.5 +4.4
  Nov 30, 2024 184   UC Davis W 90-57 87%     4 - 2 +28.8 +25.3 +5.8
  Dec 07, 2024 291   Idaho W 78-62 94%     5 - 2 +6.2 +6.6 +1.4
  Dec 14, 2024 63   UC Irvine W 67-55 59%     6 - 2 +17.7 +0.3 +17.3
  Dec 17, 2024 329   Sacramento St. W 74-53 98%    
  Dec 22, 2024 122   College of Charleston W 74-68 70%    
  Dec 30, 2024 312   Portland W 79-60 96%    
  Jan 02, 2025 189   @ Loyola Marymount W 70-63 73%    
  Jan 04, 2025 315   San Diego W 79-59 97%    
  Jan 09, 2025 78   @ Santa Clara L 69-71 43%    
  Jan 11, 2025 264   @ Pacific W 73-62 84%    
  Jan 16, 2025 3   Gonzaga L 68-77 21%    
  Jan 18, 2025 56   @ San Francisco L 65-69 34%    
  Jan 23, 2025 226   Pepperdine W 77-62 91%    
  Jan 25, 2025 78   Santa Clara W 72-68 65%    
  Jan 28, 2025 3   @ Gonzaga L 65-80 9%    
  Feb 06, 2025 68   Washington St. W 72-69 61%    
  Feb 08, 2025 41   St. Mary's L 63-64 48%    
  Feb 13, 2025 312   @ Portland W 76-63 89%    
  Feb 15, 2025 264   Pacific W 76-59 93%    
  Feb 20, 2025 226   @ Pepperdine W 74-65 78%    
  Feb 22, 2025 315   @ San Diego W 76-62 89%    
  Feb 27, 2025 56   San Francisco W 68-66 56%    
  Mar 01, 2025 41   @ St. Mary's L 60-66 28%    
Projected Record 19 - 9 12 - 6




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected West Coast Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.8 1.8 1.5 0.5 0.0 4.8 1st
2nd 0.1 1.5 6.1 8.0 3.6 0.6 20.0 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.2 2.4 8.6 8.0 2.0 0.1 21.3 3rd
4th 0.0 0.3 2.9 8.8 7.0 1.1 0.0 20.2 4th
5th 0.0 0.3 2.9 7.0 5.3 0.8 0.0 16.4 5th
6th 0.0 0.6 2.8 4.9 3.2 0.4 0.0 11.8 6th
7th 0.0 0.3 1.3 1.6 0.8 0.1 4.1 7th
8th 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.1 0.0 1.0 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.3 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.0 11th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 2.3 4.8 8.9 13.4 17.0 18.0 15.4 10.8 5.5 2.2 0.5 0.0 Total



West Coast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
17-1 100.0% 0.5    0.4 0.1
16-2 70.5% 1.5    0.9 0.6 0.0
15-3 32.9% 1.8    0.6 1.0 0.2 0.0
14-4 7.2% 0.8    0.1 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0
13-5 0.7% 0.1    0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
12-6 0.0%
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 4.8% 4.8 2.1 2.0 0.6 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.0% 100.0% 30.0% 70.0% 5.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
17-1 0.5% 88.1% 23.4% 64.7% 7.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 84.5%
16-2 2.2% 64.0% 19.7% 44.3% 9.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.0 0.8 55.1%
15-3 5.5% 38.8% 15.5% 23.2% 10.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 1.1 0.1 3.4 27.5%
14-4 10.8% 19.3% 11.2% 8.1% 10.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.4 0.2 0.0 8.7 9.1%
13-5 15.4% 9.4% 7.0% 2.3% 11.1 0.0 0.1 1.1 0.3 13.9 2.5%
12-6 18.0% 4.4% 3.9% 0.5% 11.2 0.0 0.5 0.2 0.0 17.2 0.5%
11-7 17.0% 2.2% 2.1% 0.2% 11.4 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.0 16.6 0.2%
10-8 13.4% 1.4% 1.4% 0.0% 11.7 0.1 0.1 0.0 13.2 0.0%
9-9 8.9% 0.9% 0.9% 11.7 0.0 0.1 0.0 8.8
8-10 4.8% 0.5% 0.5% 12.2 0.0 0.0 4.8
7-11 2.3% 0.3% 0.3% 12.5 0.0 0.0 2.3
6-12 0.8% 0.8
5-13 0.3% 0.3
4-14 0.1% 0.1
3-15 0.0% 0.0
2-16 0.0% 0.0
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 9.0% 5.1% 3.9% 10.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.7 1.5 4.7 1.1 0.0 91.0 4.2%