Central Florida
Big 12
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+6.7#82
Expected Predictive Rating+10.6#56
Pace70.7#128
Improvement-2.5#319

Offense
Total Offense+2.4#112
First Shot-3.0#263
After Offensive Rebound+5.4#3
Layup/Dunks-1.4#228
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.5#263
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.3#244
Freethrows+2.1#67
Improvement+0.1#167

Defense
Total Defense+4.2#71
First Shot+2.9#93
After Offensive Rebounds+1.3#84
Layups/Dunks+0.8#142
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.7#128
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.0#230
Freethrows+2.4#45
Improvement-2.6#337
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.2% 0.2% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 1.0% 1.1% 0.3%
NCAA Tourney Bid 13.4% 14.6% 6.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 13.3% 14.4% 6.2%
Average Seed 9.3 9.3 9.6
.500 or above 50.1% 53.6% 27.4%
.500 or above in Conference 15.0% 15.9% 9.2%
Conference Champion 0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Last Place in Conference 21.3% 20.2% 28.6%
First Four3.7% 4.0% 2.2%
First Round11.3% 12.3% 4.8%
Second Round4.7% 5.1% 1.9%
Sweet Sixteen1.1% 1.2% 0.4%
Elite Eight0.3% 0.4% 0.1%
Final Four0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Jacksonville (Home) - 86.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 71 - 7
Quad 1b2 - 43 - 11
Quad 23 - 46 - 15
Quad 34 - 111 - 16
Quad 45 - 016 - 16


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 24   Texas A&M W 64-61 34%     1 - 0 +13.9 +0.8 +13.2
  Nov 08, 2024 152   Purdue Fort Wayne W 75-68 81%     2 - 0 +4.3 -4.4 +8.6
  Nov 12, 2024 84   Florida Atlantic W 100-94 62%     3 - 0 +9.6 +13.8 -4.9
  Nov 19, 2024 332   Tennessee Tech W 80-69 96%     4 - 0 -2.3 +2.6 -4.5
  Nov 22, 2024 35   Wisconsin L 70-86 30%     4 - 1 -3.9 -6.4 +4.1
  Nov 24, 2024 60   LSU L 102-109 3OT 41%     4 - 2 +2.1 +5.5 -1.4
  Nov 27, 2024 141   Wisconsin-Milwaukee W 84-76 79%     5 - 2 +6.1 +5.9 +0.0
  Dec 01, 2024 175   California Baptist W 74-59 84%     6 - 2 +11.2 -2.5 +13.7
  Dec 08, 2024 303   Tarleton St. W 66-51 94%     7 - 2 +4.4 -4.8 +10.2
  Dec 14, 2024 247   Tulsa W 88-75 86%     8 - 2 +8.2 +15.1 -6.6
  Dec 21, 2024 204   Jacksonville W 76-64 87%    
  Dec 31, 2024 25   @ Texas Tech L 67-77 17%    
  Jan 05, 2025 10   Kansas L 69-77 23%    
  Jan 08, 2025 73   Colorado W 73-71 58%    
  Jan 11, 2025 21   @ Arizona L 72-83 16%    
  Jan 14, 2025 61   @ Arizona St. L 71-76 31%    
  Jan 18, 2025 6   Houston L 61-70 19%    
  Jan 21, 2025 5   @ Iowa St. L 67-83 7%    
  Jan 25, 2025 86   TCU W 72-69 62%    
  Jan 28, 2025 10   @ Kansas L 66-80 11%    
  Feb 01, 2025 44   BYU L 75-76 45%    
  Feb 05, 2025 27   Cincinnati L 68-72 37%    
  Feb 08, 2025 12   @ Baylor L 68-80 13%    
  Feb 11, 2025 5   Iowa St. L 70-80 19%    
  Feb 15, 2025 73   @ Colorado L 70-74 37%    
  Feb 19, 2025 85   @ Oklahoma St. L 75-78 40%    
  Feb 23, 2025 66   Utah W 75-74 55%    
  Feb 26, 2025 64   Kansas St. W 73-72 54%    
  Mar 01, 2025 86   @ TCU L 69-72 41%    
  Mar 05, 2025 85   Oklahoma St. W 78-75 61%    
  Mar 08, 2025 42   @ West Virginia L 67-75 25%    
Projected Record 16 - 15 7 - 13




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big 12 Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.3 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.7 3rd
4th 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.4 0.1 0.0 1.1 4th
5th 0.0 0.1 0.7 0.9 0.2 0.0 1.9 5th
6th 0.0 0.7 1.4 0.6 0.1 2.8 6th
7th 0.0 0.5 1.9 1.3 0.2 0.0 4.0 7th
8th 0.0 0.3 2.0 2.5 0.5 0.0 5.3 8th
9th 0.1 1.6 3.5 1.3 0.1 6.5 9th
10th 0.0 1.1 4.1 2.6 0.3 0.0 8.1 10th
11th 0.0 0.6 3.9 4.2 0.8 0.0 9.5 11th
12th 0.0 0.3 3.1 5.3 1.7 0.1 10.4 12th
13th 0.2 2.2 5.6 3.0 0.3 0.0 11.3 13th
14th 0.0 0.2 1.8 5.3 4.2 0.7 0.0 12.2 14th
15th 0.0 0.3 2.0 4.9 4.3 1.1 0.1 12.7 15th
16th 0.2 1.1 2.9 4.3 3.4 1.1 0.1 13.1 16th
Total 0.2 1.1 3.2 6.5 10.3 13.2 14.7 14.2 12.2 9.5 6.7 4.1 2.3 1.1 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 Total



Big 12 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2 100.0% 0.0    0.0
17-3 81.8% 0.0    0.0 0.0
16-4 55.6% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
15-5 24.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
14-6 4.4% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
13-7 0.4% 0.0    0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 0.1% 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2 0.0% 0.0
17-3 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
16-4 0.1% 100.0% 11.1% 88.9% 3.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
15-5 0.2% 100.0% 6.0% 94.0% 5.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
14-6 0.5% 99.6% 4.4% 95.2% 6.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.5%
13-7 1.1% 97.4% 2.4% 95.0% 7.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 97.3%
12-8 2.3% 90.5% 1.2% 89.3% 8.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.2 90.4%
11-9 4.1% 74.8% 0.6% 74.2% 9.2 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.9 0.9 0.5 0.0 1.0 74.7%
10-10 6.7% 54.8% 0.2% 54.6% 9.9 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.2 1.3 0.0 3.0 54.7%
9-11 9.5% 22.5% 0.2% 22.3% 10.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.3 0.2 7.4 22.4%
8-12 12.2% 4.9% 0.2% 4.7% 11.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.4 0.1 11.6 4.7%
7-13 14.2% 0.5% 0.1% 0.4% 11.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 14.1 0.4%
6-14 14.7% 0.0% 0.0% 12.0 0.0 14.7
5-15 13.2% 13.2
4-16 10.3% 10.3
3-17 6.5% 6.5
2-18 3.2% 3.2
1-19 1.1% 1.1
0-20 0.2% 0.2
Total 100% 13.4% 0.2% 13.3% 9.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 1.0 1.9 2.6 3.0 3.6 0.4 86.6 13.3%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.1%