Tulsa
American Athletic
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-4.8#246
Expected Predictive Rating-5.6#263
Pace66.1#235
Improvement+3.3#51

Offense
Total Offense-3.6#272
First Shot-3.2#273
After Offensive Rebound-0.4#219
Layup/Dunks-3.5#301
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.7#212
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.5#164
Freethrows+0.5#146
Improvement+0.3#172

Defense
Total Defense-1.1#207
First Shot+2.5#93
After Offensive Rebounds-3.6#359
Layups/Dunks+0.8#142
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.2#290
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.7#70
Freethrows+0.2#173
Improvement+3.0#38
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
.500 or above in Conference 0.8% 3.2% 0.0%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 3.1% 0.0% 4.1%
First Four0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
First Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Rice (Away) - 25.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 2
Quad 20 - 30 - 5
Quad 34 - 94 - 15
Quad 47 - 511 - 20


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2024 363   Arkansas Pine Bluff W 103-80 94%     1 - 0 +0.7 +10.9 -11.9
  Nov 13, 2024 322   Oral Roberts W 85-76 76%     2 - 0 -3.0 +5.1 -7.9
  Nov 16, 2024 219   @ Missouri St. L 106-111 3OT 34%     2 - 1 -5.6 +0.0 -4.0
  Nov 20, 2024 233   Arkansas Little Rock L 57-71 57%     2 - 2 -20.5 -8.8 -13.2
  Nov 23, 2024 110   @ Loyola Chicago L 53-89 16%     2 - 3 -30.1 -17.3 -11.6
  Nov 26, 2024 334   Detroit Mercy W 63-44 72%     3 - 3 +8.2 -7.2 +17.1
  Nov 27, 2024 252   Georgia St. L 71-74 51%     3 - 4 -8.1 -6.6 -1.5
  Dec 04, 2024 92   Oklahoma St. L 55-76 23%     3 - 5 -18.0 -18.1 +1.1
  Dec 07, 2024 224   Southern L 66-70 54%     3 - 6 -9.9 -1.5 -8.7
  Dec 14, 2024 81   Central Florida L 75-88 14%     3 - 7 -6.0 +5.7 -12.0
  Dec 21, 2024 364   Mississippi Valley W 93-48 98%     4 - 7 +14.1 +5.5 +8.3
  Jan 01, 2025 178   Rice L 64-70 45%     4 - 8 0 - 1 -9.5 -7.1 -2.8
  Jan 04, 2025 104   @ UAB L 51-83 14%     4 - 9 0 - 2 -25.3 -25.0 +0.5
  Jan 07, 2025 208   @ Texas San Antonio W 82-77 32%     5 - 9 1 - 2 +5.0 +9.9 -4.8
  Jan 12, 2025 235   Charlotte W 69-63 57%     6 - 9 2 - 2 -0.5 +3.1 -2.7
  Jan 18, 2025 176   @ South Florida L 56-63 27%     6 - 10 2 - 3 -5.4 -13.1 +7.5
  Jan 21, 2025 150   East Carolina L 76-85 OT 39%     6 - 11 2 - 4 -10.9 +0.7 -11.5
  Jan 26, 2025 115   Wichita St. W 84-77 31%     7 - 11 3 - 4 +7.3 +19.1 -11.2
  Jan 29, 2025 104   UAB L 68-78 27%     7 - 12 3 - 5 -8.4 -6.5 -2.4
  Feb 02, 2025 144   @ Tulane L 56-59 21%     7 - 13 3 - 6 +0.6 -10.5 +10.7
  Feb 05, 2025 47   @ Memphis L 71-83 5%     7 - 14 3 - 7 +1.7 +13.3 -12.9
  Feb 08, 2025 105   Florida Atlantic L 55-79 27%     7 - 15 3 - 8 -22.5 -16.8 -6.9
  Feb 12, 2025 155   @ Temple W 80-74 23%     8 - 15 4 - 8 +9.0 +10.3 -1.0
  Feb 15, 2025 208   Texas San Antonio W 80-76 51%     9 - 15 5 - 8 -1.1 +0.5 -1.8
  Feb 19, 2025 71   @ North Texas L 44-63 8%     9 - 16 5 - 9 -8.5 -15.6 +4.6
  Feb 22, 2025 178   @ Rice L 67-73 26%    
  Mar 01, 2025 144   Tulane L 68-71 40%    
  Mar 04, 2025 155   Temple L 73-76 42%    
  Mar 09, 2025 115   @ Wichita St. L 65-75 16%    
Projected Record 10 - 19 6 - 12




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected American Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 0.0 0.0 0.0 5th
6th 0.0 1.0 0.6 1.6 6th
7th 1.0 3.7 0.2 4.9 7th
8th 0.1 9.2 3.5 0.0 12.8 8th
9th 12.0 14.1 0.5 26.6 9th
10th 7.5 23.7 2.9 0.0 34.1 10th
11th 13.7 4.0 0.0 17.8 11th
12th 2.2 2.2 12th
13th 0.0 0.0 13th
Total 23.4 39.8 27.3 8.7 0.8 Total



American Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9 0.8% 0.8
8-10 8.7% 8.7
7-11 27.3% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 27.3
6-12 39.8% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 39.7
5-13 23.4% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 23.4
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 16.0 0.1 99.9 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 17.4%