Tulsa
American Athletic
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-5.0#251
Expected Predictive Rating-8.3#299
Pace68.8#176
Improvement+1.8#105

Offense
Total Offense-4.0#283
First Shot-3.4#280
After Offensive Rebound-0.5#221
Layup/Dunks-3.6#300
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.7#210
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.4#166
Freethrows+0.5#147
Improvement-1.5#270

Defense
Total Defense-1.1#210
First Shot+2.5#101
After Offensive Rebounds-3.5#357
Layups/Dunks+0.7#144
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.1#286
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.7#70
Freethrows+0.2#176
Improvement+3.3#31
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.2% 0.2% 0.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.7 15.5 16.0
.500 or above 0.9% 1.9% 0.2%
.500 or above in Conference 5.7% 10.5% 2.3%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 22.8% 12.7% 29.8%
First Four0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
First Round0.1% 0.2% 0.1%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: East Carolina (Home) - 40.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 30 - 5
Quad 33 - 93 - 14
Quad 47 - 610 - 20


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2024 363   Arkansas Pine Bluff W 103-80 93%     1 - 0 +1.8 +9.1 -9.0
  Nov 13, 2024 311   Oral Roberts W 85-76 73%     2 - 0 -2.3 +4.6 -6.8
  Nov 16, 2024 244   @ Missouri St. L 106-111 3OT 38%     2 - 1 -6.8 -1.9 -3.3
  Nov 20, 2024 238   Arkansas Little Rock L 57-71 58%     2 - 2 -21.1 -9.8 -12.9
  Nov 23, 2024 136   @ Loyola Chicago L 53-89 19%     2 - 3 -31.6 -19.2 -11.2
  Nov 26, 2024 331   Detroit Mercy W 63-44 71%     3 - 3 +8.4 -8.0 +18.1
  Nov 27, 2024 280   Georgia St. L 71-74 57%     3 - 4 -9.9 -5.3 -4.6
  Dec 04, 2024 101   Oklahoma St. L 55-76 26%     3 - 5 -19.2 -18.3 +0.1
  Dec 07, 2024 219   Southern L 66-70 54%     3 - 6 -10.0 -1.5 -8.7
  Dec 14, 2024 71   Central Florida L 75-88 12%     3 - 7 -5.2 +7.1 -12.6
  Dec 21, 2024 364   Mississippi Valley W 93-48 97%     4 - 7 +17.0 +7.2 +9.5
  Jan 01, 2025 192   Rice L 64-70 46%     4 - 8 0 - 1 -10.1 -5.7 -4.9
  Jan 04, 2025 97   @ UAB L 51-83 12%     4 - 9 0 - 2 -24.0 -22.8 -0.5
  Jan 07, 2025 229   @ Texas San Antonio W 82-77 35%     5 - 9 1 - 2 +3.9 +7.9 -4.0
  Jan 12, 2025 224   Charlotte W 69-63 55%     6 - 9 2 - 2 -0.4 +3.3 -2.8
  Jan 18, 2025 154   @ South Florida L 56-63 21%     6 - 10 2 - 3 -3.6 -14.2 +10.4
  Jan 21, 2025 164   East Carolina L 68-70 41%    
  Jan 26, 2025 138   Wichita St. L 72-76 36%    
  Jan 29, 2025 97   UAB L 73-80 25%    
  Feb 02, 2025 148   @ Tulane L 67-76 20%    
  Feb 05, 2025 43   @ Memphis L 66-85 3%    
  Feb 08, 2025 108   Florida Atlantic L 73-79 31%    
  Feb 12, 2025 110   @ Temple L 68-79 15%    
  Feb 15, 2025 229   Texas San Antonio W 78-76 56%    
  Feb 19, 2025 65   @ North Texas L 55-71 6%    
  Feb 22, 2025 192   @ Rice L 66-72 27%    
  Mar 01, 2025 148   Tulane L 70-73 39%    
  Mar 04, 2025 110   Temple L 71-76 32%    
  Mar 09, 2025 138   @ Wichita St. L 69-78 19%    
Projected Record 10 - 19 6 - 12




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected American Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2nd
3rd 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 3rd
4th 0.1 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.8 4th
5th 0.1 0.9 0.7 0.1 1.7 5th
6th 0.1 1.0 1.4 0.3 2.8 6th
7th 0.0 0.8 3.0 1.0 0.0 4.8 7th
8th 0.0 0.7 4.2 2.7 0.2 0.0 7.8 8th
9th 0.4 4.7 5.9 0.8 11.9 9th
10th 0.2 4.1 8.6 3.0 0.1 16.0 10th
11th 0.3 3.9 10.3 5.2 0.4 20.1 11th
12th 0.8 4.8 10.2 6.5 0.6 22.9 12th
13th 1.9 4.7 3.6 0.6 0.0 10.9 13th
Total 2.8 9.9 17.9 21.9 19.8 14.4 7.7 3.6 1.6 0.4 0.1 0.0 Total



American Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5 50.0% 0.0    0.0
12-6 0.0%
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.0% 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5 0.0% 0.0 0.0
12-6 0.1% 0.1
11-7 0.4% 0.4
10-8 1.6% 2.6% 2.6% 15.3 0.0 0.0 1.5
9-9 3.6% 3.6
8-10 7.7% 0.4% 0.4% 15.7 0.0 0.0 7.7
7-11 14.4% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 14.4
6-12 19.8% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 19.8
5-13 21.9% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 21.9
4-14 17.9% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 17.9
3-15 9.9% 9.9
2-16 2.8% 2.8
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 15.7 0.1 0.1 99.8 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 1.8%