Texas San Antonio
American Athletic
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-3.9#229
Expected Predictive Rating-3.0#219
Pace75.0#39
Improvement+1.3#125

Offense
Total Offense+0.5#163
First Shot+0.6#156
After Offensive Rebound-0.1#190
Layup/Dunks-5.4#343
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.7#45
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.8#121
Freethrows+1.6#86
Improvement+2.4#62

Defense
Total Defense-4.4#298
First Shot-2.3#253
After Offensive Rebounds-2.1#329
Layups/Dunks-1.5#236
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.5#161
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.1#206
Freethrows-1.2#274
Improvement-1.2#244
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.2% 0.4% 0.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.4 14.6 15.6
.500 or above 2.7% 8.2% 1.8%
.500 or above in Conference 9.8% 24.8% 7.5%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 18.0% 7.0% 19.7%
First Four0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
First Round0.2% 0.4% 0.2%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: UAB (Away) - 13.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 4
Quad 20 - 50 - 8
Quad 34 - 64 - 14
Quad 46 - 510 - 19


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 12, 2024 73   @ Bradley L 72-85 10%     0 - 1 -2.6 -0.7 -1.0
  Nov 16, 2024 238   Arkansas Little Rock L 64-81 62%     0 - 2 -24.1 -10.9 -12.7
  Nov 25, 2024 117   @ Troy L 72-86 19%     0 - 3 -8.5 +1.5 -9.8
  Nov 27, 2024 206   Merrimack W 76-74 43%     1 - 3 -0.2 -0.4 +0.1
  Nov 30, 2024 316   Houston Christian W 78-71 77%     2 - 3 -4.6 +4.6 -8.7
  Dec 03, 2024 35   @ St. Mary's L 74-82 OT 5%     2 - 4 +7.4 +4.5 +3.4
  Dec 07, 2024 46   @ Arkansas L 60-75 6%     2 - 5 -1.2 -2.3 +0.5
  Dec 13, 2024 277   North Dakota W 80-76 70%     3 - 5 -5.3 -5.0 -0.5
  Dec 15, 2024 277   @ North Dakota W 95-85 50%     4 - 5 +6.2 +10.1 -4.5
  Dec 29, 2024 305   @ Army L 75-78 55%     4 - 6 -8.2 -7.5 -0.4
  Jan 04, 2025 148   @ Tulane L 63-92 23%     4 - 7 0 - 1 -25.1 -11.7 -11.8
  Jan 07, 2025 251   Tulsa L 77-82 65%     4 - 8 0 - 2 -12.8 +3.4 -16.3
  Jan 11, 2025 138   Wichita St. W 88-75 40%     5 - 8 1 - 2 +11.9 +15.2 -3.2
  Jan 14, 2025 192   @ Rice W 90-84 31%     6 - 8 2 - 2 +7.4 +16.8 -9.5
  Jan 18, 2025 65   North Texas L 57-72 18%     6 - 9 2 - 3 -9.3 -1.2 -10.8
  Jan 21, 2025 97   @ UAB L 78-90 13%    
  Jan 25, 2025 110   Temple L 79-83 35%    
  Jan 29, 2025 108   @ Florida Atlantic L 78-88 17%    
  Feb 01, 2025 65   @ North Texas L 62-77 7%    
  Feb 05, 2025 148   Tulane L 77-79 43%    
  Feb 08, 2025 164   East Carolina L 76-77 46%    
  Feb 12, 2025 138   @ Wichita St. L 77-85 22%    
  Feb 15, 2025 251   @ Tulsa L 76-78 44%    
  Feb 19, 2025 154   South Florida L 78-80 45%    
  Feb 23, 2025 164   @ East Carolina L 73-80 26%    
  Mar 02, 2025 192   Rice W 76-75 52%    
  Mar 04, 2025 43   Memphis L 76-89 12%    
  Mar 09, 2025 224   @ Charlotte L 74-77 39%    
Projected Record 10 - 18 6 - 12




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected American Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.0 0.0 2nd
3rd 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.5 3rd
4th 0.1 0.6 0.3 0.0 1.0 4th
5th 0.1 1.2 1.0 0.2 2.4 5th
6th 0.0 1.2 2.4 0.8 0.1 4.5 6th
7th 0.0 1.0 4.2 2.0 0.2 7.3 7th
8th 0.0 0.8 4.8 4.0 0.4 0.0 10.1 8th
9th 0.5 5.0 7.0 1.5 0.0 14.0 9th
10th 0.2 4.1 9.0 3.4 0.2 16.9 10th
11th 0.3 3.4 9.3 5.3 0.4 0.0 18.7 11th
12th 0.2 2.5 7.4 5.5 0.9 0.0 16.4 12th
13th 1.3 3.5 2.9 0.4 0.0 8.1 13th
Total 1.5 6.2 13.9 19.9 21.0 16.7 11.0 6.2 2.6 0.9 0.2 0.0 Total



American Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5 100.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
12-6 0.0%
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5 0.0% 0.0
12-6 0.2% 0.0 0.1
11-7 0.9% 3.3% 3.3% 13.7 0.0 0.0 0.9
10-8 2.6% 2.6
9-9 6.2% 0.5% 0.5% 14.7 0.0 0.0 6.1
8-10 11.0% 0.5% 0.5% 15.8 0.0 0.0 11.0
7-11 16.7% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 16.7
6-12 21.0% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 20.9
5-13 19.9% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 19.8
4-14 13.9% 13.9
3-15 6.2% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 6.2
2-16 1.5% 1.5
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 15.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 99.8 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 1.0%