Troy
Sun Belt
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+2.2#127
Expected Predictive Rating+0.8#157
Pace69.4#167
Improvement-0.6#227

Offense
Total Offense+0.2#166
First Shot-2.0#235
After Offensive Rebound+2.2#58
Layup/Dunks+5.1#33
2 Pt Jumpshots-4.2#358
3 Pt Jumpshots-4.3#309
Freethrows+1.3#99
Improvement+1.5#65

Defense
Total Defense+1.9#114
First Shot-0.5#182
After Offensive Rebounds+2.5#29
Layups/Dunks-2.5#267
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.7#56
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.2#301
Freethrows+3.5#14
Improvement-2.1#319
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 16.0% 18.0% 12.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.3 13.2 13.5
.500 or above 90.7% 94.7% 83.0%
.500 or above in Conference 89.5% 94.0% 80.9%
Conference Champion 18.5% 23.3% 9.3%
Last Place in Conference 0.4% 0.1% 0.9%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.1%
First Round16.0% 18.0% 12.2%
Second Round1.9% 2.2% 1.3%
Sweet Sixteen0.4% 0.4% 0.2%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Georgia St. (Away) - 65.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 30 - 3
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 3
Quad 21 - 21 - 5
Quad 34 - 35 - 8
Quad 413 - 318 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 206   Toledo W 84-74 76%     1 - 0 +4.7 -0.7 +4.8
  Nov 09, 2024 346   @ New Orleans W 78-61 85%     2 - 0 +8.3 -5.4 +12.2
  Nov 13, 2024 29   @ Arkansas L 49-65 11%     2 - 1 -0.2 -14.6 +14.1
  Nov 17, 2024 23   @ Oregon L 61-82 9%     2 - 2 -4.0 -7.2 +4.3
  Nov 19, 2024 348   @ West Georgia W 84-65 85%     3 - 2 +9.9 +15.3 -3.6
  Nov 25, 2024 234   Texas San Antonio W 86-72 80%     4 - 2 +7.1 +6.9 +0.1
  Nov 29, 2024 217   Merrimack L 68-72 78%     4 - 3 -9.8 +2.3 -12.5
  Dec 01, 2024 218   Eastern Kentucky W 84-74 78%     5 - 3 +4.2 +7.6 -3.3
  Dec 10, 2024 6   @ Houston L 42-62 4%     5 - 4 +2.0 -7.4 +4.0
  Dec 21, 2024 253   @ Georgia St. W 75-71 66%    
  Jan 02, 2025 171   @ Appalachian St. L 66-67 49%    
  Jan 04, 2025 186   @ Marshall W 74-73 52%    
  Jan 09, 2025 138   Texas St. W 72-68 65%    
  Jan 11, 2025 111   Arkansas St. W 73-72 55%    
  Jan 15, 2025 326   @ Louisiana Monroe W 73-65 78%    
  Jan 18, 2025 201   @ South Alabama W 69-68 54%    
  Jan 23, 2025 282   Southern Miss W 78-66 86%    
  Jan 25, 2025 201   South Alabama W 72-65 74%    
  Jan 30, 2025 235   Georgia Southern W 79-70 80%    
  Feb 01, 2025 326   Louisiana Monroe W 76-62 91%    
  Feb 05, 2025 112   @ James Madison L 71-75 35%    
  Feb 12, 2025 304   @ Louisiana W 77-70 73%    
  Feb 15, 2025 111   @ Arkansas St. L 70-75 34%    
  Feb 20, 2025 304   Louisiana W 80-67 88%    
  Feb 22, 2025 274   Coastal Carolina W 73-62 84%    
  Feb 25, 2025 138   @ Texas St. L 69-71 43%    
  Feb 28, 2025 282   @ Southern Miss W 75-69 69%    
Projected Record 17 - 10 12 - 6




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Sun Belt Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.3 1.9 4.9 5.9 3.7 1.5 0.3 18.5 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 2.5 6.4 5.7 2.0 0.2 0.0 17.1 2nd
3rd 0.2 2.3 6.4 5.0 1.3 0.1 15.3 3rd
4th 0.1 1.4 5.6 4.9 1.0 0.0 13.1 4th
5th 0.0 0.6 4.0 4.7 1.2 0.1 10.6 5th
6th 0.2 2.3 4.1 1.4 0.1 8.0 6th
7th 0.1 1.2 3.3 1.5 0.1 0.0 6.1 7th
8th 0.0 0.5 2.0 1.8 0.2 0.0 4.5 8th
9th 0.1 1.1 1.4 0.3 0.0 2.9 9th
10th 0.0 0.4 1.0 0.3 0.0 1.8 10th
11th 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.3 0.0 0.0 1.1 11th
12th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.0 0.6 12th
13th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.3 13th
14th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 14th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 1.5 2.9 5.2 8.3 11.3 14.4 15.4 14.5 11.9 7.9 4.0 1.5 0.3 Total



Sun Belt Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.3    0.3
17-1 99.7% 1.5    1.4 0.0
16-2 94.0% 3.7    3.2 0.6 0.0
15-3 73.9% 5.9    3.7 1.9 0.3 0.0
14-4 41.3% 4.9    1.8 2.2 0.8 0.1 0.0
13-5 13.5% 1.9    0.3 0.7 0.7 0.2 0.0 0.0
12-6 1.8% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 18.5% 18.5 10.6 5.5 1.9 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.3% 50.7% 50.7% 10.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1
17-1 1.5% 44.4% 44.4% 11.9 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.1 0.8
16-2 4.0% 38.1% 38.1% 12.3 0.1 0.9 0.5 0.0 2.5
15-3 7.9% 29.4% 29.4% 12.7 0.0 0.9 1.2 0.2 0.0 5.6
14-4 11.9% 26.2% 26.2% 13.1 0.0 0.6 1.7 0.8 0.0 8.8
13-5 14.5% 20.7% 20.7% 13.4 0.2 1.4 1.2 0.2 11.5
12-6 15.4% 15.3% 15.3% 13.7 0.1 0.8 1.2 0.3 0.0 13.1
11-7 14.4% 9.9% 9.9% 14.0 0.0 0.3 0.7 0.4 0.0 13.0
10-8 11.3% 7.3% 7.3% 14.3 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.3 0.0 10.5
9-9 8.3% 4.9% 4.9% 14.5 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 7.9
8-10 5.2% 2.9% 2.9% 15.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 5.0
7-11 2.9% 2.4% 2.4% 15.5 0.0 0.0 2.8
6-12 1.5% 1.1% 1.1% 15.8 0.0 0.0 1.4
5-13 0.6% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 0.6
4-14 0.3% 0.8% 0.8% 16.0 0.0 0.2
3-15 0.1% 0.1
2-16 0.0% 0.0
1-17 0.0% 0.0
0-18
Total 100% 16.0% 16.0% 0.0% 13.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 3.2 6.2 4.7 1.5 0.1 84.0 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 10.5 1.4 1.4 5.6 4.2 7.0 14.1 42.3 23.9
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.0%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.0%