IN CC Stats - NCAA Basketball

Troy
Sun Belt
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating	+3.0	#121
Expected Predictive Rating	+8.0	#59

Pace	72.7	#93
Improvement	-	-

Offense
Total Offense	-0.8	#191

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebound	-	-

Layup/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

Defense
Total Defense	+3.8	#75

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebounds	-	-

Layups/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

	Now	Win Next	Lose Next
#1 Overall Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
#1 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 2 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 4 Seed	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%
Top 6 Seed	0.1%	0.5%	0.1%
NCAA Tourney Bid	18.4%	26.8%	16.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier	0.2%	0.9%	0.1%
Average Seed	12.7	12.0	12.9

.500 or above	86.4%	95.8%	84.8%
.500 or above in Conference	85.0%	91.7%	83.9%
Conference Champion	21.5%	32.7%	19.5%
Last Place in Conference	0.7%	0.3%	0.8%

First Four	0.2%	0.4%	0.1%
First Round	18.3%	26.5%	16.9%
Second Round	3.2%	6.3%	2.6%
Sweet Sixteen	0.7%	1.5%	0.6%
Elite Eight	0.1%	0.2%	0.1%
Final Four	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Championship Game	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
National Champion	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Next Game: Oregon (Away) - 15.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding

Not in Tournament

Projected Record by Quad
Quad	Projected	Projected Cumulative
Quad 1a	0 - 2	0 - 2
Quad 1b	0 - 1	0 - 3
Quad 2	1 - 2	1 - 5
Quad 3	5 - 4	6 - 8
Quad 4	12 - 2	18 - 11

Date	Opponent		Result/Prediction			Record	Conf		Rating	Offense	Defense
Nov 04, 2024	149	Toledo	W	84-74	69%	1 - 0			+8.0	+1.9	+5.5
Nov 09, 2024	347	@ New Orleans	W	78-61	87%	2 - 0			+7.7	-6.3	+12.6
Nov 13, 2024	19	@ Arkansas	L	49-65	11%	2 - 1			+0.5	-13.4	+13.6
Nov 17, 2024	39	@ Oregon	L	65-76	15%
Nov 19, 2024	349	@ West Georgia	W	78-65	88%
Nov 25, 2024	238	Texas San Antonio	W	81-71	81%
Nov 29, 2024	206	Merrimack	W	70-61	78%
Dec 01, 2024	225	Eastern Kentucky	W	79-70	80%
Dec 10, 2024	2	@ Houston	L	56-76	4%
Dec 21, 2024	223	@ Georgia St.	W	74-71	61%
Jan 02, 2025	203	@ Appalachian St.	W	70-68	59%
Jan 04, 2025	200	@ Marshall	W	75-73	58%
Jan 09, 2025	146	Texas St.	W	70-65	68%
Jan 11, 2025	115	Arkansas St.	W	74-72	59%
Jan 15, 2025	319	@ Louisiana Monroe	W	74-65	78%
Jan 18, 2025	198	@ South Alabama	W	72-70	58%
Jan 23, 2025	231	Southern Miss	W	78-69	79%
Jan 25, 2025	198	South Alabama	W	75-67	76%
Jan 30, 2025	197	Georgia Southern	W	79-71	76%
Feb 01, 2025	319	Louisiana Monroe	W	77-62	90%
Feb 05, 2025	126	@ James Madison	L	73-76	42%
Feb 12, 2025	188	@ Louisiana	W	71-70	55%
Feb 15, 2025	115	@ Arkansas St.	L	71-75	38%
Feb 20, 2025	188	Louisiana	W	74-67	74%
Feb 22, 2025	268	Coastal Carolina	W	75-63	84%
Feb 25, 2025	146	@ Texas St.	L	67-68	47%
Feb 28, 2025	231	@ Southern Miss	W	75-72	61%
Projected Record						17 - 10	12 - 6

Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.

Projected Sun Belt Finish

	0-18	1-17	2-16	3-15	4-14	5-13	6-12	7-11	8-10	9-9	10-8	11-7	12-6	13-5	14-4	15-3	16-2	17-1	18-0		Total
1st												0.0	0.4	2.1	5.0	6.3	4.8	2.3	0.6		21.5	1st
2nd											0.0	0.3	2.8	5.7	5.0	2.0	0.3	0.0			16.1	2nd
3rd										0.0	0.2	2.4	5.7	4.0	1.1	0.1					13.4	3rd
4th										0.1	1.4	4.8	3.7	0.8	0.0						10.8	4th
5th									0.0	0.6	3.9	3.7	0.8	0.0							9.0	5th
6th									0.2	2.4	3.6	1.1	0.1								7.4	6th
7th								0.0	1.2	3.3	1.4	0.1									6.0	7th
8th							0.0	0.5	2.3	1.8	0.2	0.0									4.8	8th
9th							0.2	1.3	1.9	0.3	0.0										3.7	9th
10th						0.1	0.6	1.4	0.7	0.0											2.9	10th
11th					0.0	0.3	0.9	0.8	0.1	0.0											2.2	11th
12th				0.0	0.2	0.5	0.5	0.1													1.3	12th
13th			0.0	0.1	0.2	0.2	0.1	0.0													0.7	13th
14th	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.1	0.0															0.3	14th

Total	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.2	0.6	1.2	2.4	4.1	6.4	8.5	10.7	12.4	13.4	12.6	11.0	8.4	5.1	2.3	0.6			Total

Sun Belt Regular Season Championship

Record	Champion	Total		Outright	2-Way	3-Way	4-Way	5-Way	6-Way	7-Way	8-Way
18-0	100.0%	0.6		0.6
17-1	99.9%	2.3		2.2	0.1
16-2	94.0%	4.8		4.1	0.7	0.0
15-3	75.4%	6.3		4.2	1.9	0.2	0.0
14-4	45.1%	5.0		2.1	2.2	0.6	0.0	0.0
13-5	16.8%	2.1		0.4	0.8	0.7	0.2	0.0
12-6	2.9%	0.4		0.0	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.0	0.0
11-7	0.1%	0.0				0.0		0.0
10-8	0.0%
9-9	0.0%

Total	21.5%	21.5		13.7	5.7	1.7	0.3	0.0	0.0

NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf Record	Record Chance		Tourney Bid	Auto	At-Large	Avg Seed		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	No Bid		At-Large if not Auto
18-0	0.6%		70.9%	62.1%	8.8%	9.0		0.0		0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.1	0.0				0.2		23.2%
17-1	2.3%		53.0%	50.2%	2.8%	11.0				0.0		0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.4	0.5	0.1	0.0			1.1		5.6%
16-2	5.1%		45.2%	44.6%	0.6%	12.0									0.0		0.0	0.5	1.3	0.4	0.0			2.8		1.1%
15-3	8.4%		36.2%	36.0%	0.1%	12.4										0.0	0.0	0.2	1.6	1.1	0.1	0.0		5.4		0.2%
14-4	11.0%		29.8%	29.7%	0.1%	12.7											0.0	0.1	1.2	1.6	0.3	0.0		7.7		0.1%
13-5	12.6%		23.4%	23.4%		13.1												0.0	0.7	1.5	0.7	0.1		9.7
12-6	13.4%		16.8%	16.8%		13.4													0.3	1.1	0.7	0.2		11.2
11-7	12.4%		11.9%	11.9%		13.6													0.1	0.6	0.6	0.2	0.0	10.9
10-8	10.7%		7.7%	7.7%		14.0													0.0	0.2	0.4	0.2	0.0	9.9
9-9	8.5%		4.8%	4.8%		14.3													0.0	0.1	0.2	0.2	0.0	8.1
8-10	6.4%		2.5%	2.5%		14.8														0.0	0.0	0.1	0.0	6.2
7-11	4.1%		2.0%	2.0%		15.4														0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	4.1
6-12	2.4%		0.7%	0.7%		16.0																	0.0	2.4
5-13	1.2%		0.3%	0.3%		16.0																	0.0	1.2
4-14	0.6%		0.6%	0.6%		16.0																	0.0	0.6
3-15	0.2%		1.6%	1.6%		16.0																	0.0	0.2
2-16	0.1%																						0.0	0.1
1-17	0.0%																							0.0
0-18	0.0%																							0.0

Total	100%		18.4%	18.3%	0.2%	12.7		0.0		0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.0	0.1	0.1	0.2	1.2	5.8	6.7	3.1	1.0	0.1	81.6		0.2%