Troy
Sun Belt
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+2.8#117
Expected Predictive Rating+0.9#155
Pace65.9#243
Improvement-0.2#195

Offense
Total Offense+0.8#153
First Shot-1.4#217
After Offensive Rebound+2.2#57
Layup/Dunks+3.4#67
2 Pt Jumpshots-3.8#354
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.6#258
Freethrows+1.5#89
Improvement+1.5#89

Defense
Total Defense+1.9#116
First Shot-0.5#194
After Offensive Rebounds+2.4#22
Layups/Dunks-2.1#265
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.6#52
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.1#301
Freethrows+3.2#17
Improvement-1.7#281
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 16.0% 16.6% 12.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.3 13.3 13.6
.500 or above 97.5% 98.5% 91.7%
.500 or above in Conference 97.9% 98.8% 92.2%
Conference Champion 10.4% 11.6% 3.2%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.1%
First Round16.0% 16.6% 12.5%
Second Round1.5% 1.5% 1.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.2% 0.2% 0.2%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.1%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Southern Miss (Home) - 85.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 3
Quad 21 - 21 - 5
Quad 34 - 45 - 9
Quad 414 - 319 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 194   Toledo W 84-74 75%     1 - 0 +5.7 +0.1 +5.0
  Nov 09, 2024 343   @ New Orleans W 78-61 86%     2 - 0 +8.0 -6.3 +13.0
  Nov 13, 2024 46   @ Arkansas L 49-65 15%     2 - 1 -2.2 -14.8 +12.2
  Nov 17, 2024 28   @ Oregon L 61-82 11%     2 - 2 -4.9 -7.1 +3.3
  Nov 19, 2024 349   @ West Georgia W 84-65 88%     3 - 2 +9.2 +14.6 -3.5
  Nov 25, 2024 229   Texas San Antonio W 86-72 81%     4 - 2 +7.4 +6.2 +1.0
  Nov 29, 2024 206   Merrimack L 68-72 77%     4 - 3 -8.9 +2.6 -11.9
  Dec 01, 2024 248   Eastern Kentucky W 84-74 83%     5 - 3 +2.4 +6.5 -3.9
  Dec 10, 2024 3   @ Houston L 42-62 3%     5 - 4 +4.3 -6.0 +4.9
  Dec 21, 2024 280   Georgia St. W 77-57 87%     6 - 4 1 - 0 +10.3 +4.0 +7.5
  Jan 02, 2025 123   @ Appalachian St. W 69-61 40%     7 - 4 2 - 0 +13.3 +10.0 +4.3
  Jan 04, 2025 179   @ Marshall W 58-57 53%     8 - 4 3 - 0 +2.9 -5.9 +8.9
  Jan 09, 2025 167   Texas St. L 73-74 71%     8 - 5 3 - 1 -4.0 +0.6 -4.7
  Jan 11, 2025 100   Arkansas St. L 78-84 53%     8 - 6 3 - 2 -4.0 +12.1 -16.5
  Jan 15, 2025 347   @ Louisiana Monroe W 77-58 87%     9 - 6 4 - 2 +9.7 +8.9 +2.7
  Jan 18, 2025 126   @ South Alabama L 63-64 41%     9 - 7 4 - 3 +4.1 -0.8 +4.9
  Jan 23, 2025 258   Southern Miss W 77-66 86%    
  Jan 25, 2025 126   South Alabama W 67-64 63%    
  Jan 30, 2025 272   Georgia Southern W 79-67 87%    
  Feb 01, 2025 347   Louisiana Monroe W 78-60 95%    
  Feb 05, 2025 149   @ James Madison L 69-70 45%    
  Feb 08, 2025 153   @ Miami (OH) L 71-72 46%    
  Feb 12, 2025 307   @ Louisiana W 74-66 77%    
  Feb 15, 2025 100   @ Arkansas St. L 69-74 32%    
  Feb 20, 2025 307   Louisiana W 77-63 90%    
  Feb 22, 2025 292   Coastal Carolina W 74-61 89%    
  Feb 25, 2025 167   @ Texas St. W 71-70 50%    
  Feb 28, 2025 258   @ Southern Miss W 74-69 69%    
Projected Record 17 - 11 12 - 6




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Sun Belt Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.2 2.6 5.3 2.4 10.4 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 2.7 9.3 4.3 0.2 16.6 2nd
3rd 0.0 1.4 9.5 7.9 0.7 0.0 19.5 3rd
4th 0.5 7.0 10.7 2.1 0.0 20.3 4th
5th 0.2 3.7 8.3 3.0 0.1 15.3 5th
6th 0.0 0.9 5.3 3.3 0.1 9.6 6th
7th 0.3 2.5 2.0 0.3 5.1 7th
8th 0.0 0.6 1.1 0.2 1.9 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.6 0.2 0.9 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.2 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 12th
13th 13th
14th 14th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.7 4.9 11.8 20.2 26.2 21.9 10.3 2.6 Total



Sun Belt Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 93.0% 2.4    1.5 0.8 0.1
14-4 51.5% 5.3    1.7 2.4 1.0 0.2
13-5 11.6% 2.6    0.2 0.8 1.0 0.5 0.1
12-6 0.8% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 10.4% 10.4 3.4 4.0 2.1 0.8 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 2.6% 28.5% 28.5% 12.2 0.1 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0 1.8
14-4 10.3% 28.6% 28.6% 12.8 0.0 1.0 1.5 0.4 0.0 7.4
13-5 21.9% 21.2% 21.2% 13.2 0.0 0.8 2.4 1.4 0.1 17.3
12-6 26.2% 16.2% 16.2% 13.6 0.2 1.7 1.9 0.4 21.9
11-7 20.2% 11.5% 11.5% 13.8 0.1 0.7 1.3 0.3 17.9
10-8 11.8% 7.6% 7.6% 14.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.2 10.9
9-9 4.9% 4.3% 4.3% 14.7 0.1 0.1 0.0 4.7
8-10 1.7% 1.8% 1.8% 15.0 0.0 1.7
7-11 0.3% 3.1% 3.1% 16.0 0.0 0.3
6-12 0.1% 0.1
5-13 0.0% 0.0
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 16.0% 16.0% 0.0% 13.3 0.1 2.5 6.7 5.5 1.2 0.0 84.0 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.5% 100.0% 11.9 20.0 73.3 6.7
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.3%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.4%