Appalachian St.
Sun Belt
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+2.6#123
Expected Predictive Rating+1.2#150
Pace62.0#339
Improvement+6.3#9

Offense
Total Offense-1.7#222
First Shot-2.6#248
After Offensive Rebound+0.8#132
Layup/Dunks-1.3#230
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.1#177
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.8#233
Freethrows+0.6#136
Improvement+2.7#48

Defense
Total Defense+4.3#62
First Shot+3.8#64
After Offensive Rebounds+0.5#135
Layups/Dunks-0.2#175
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.8#260
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.8#108
Freethrows+3.0#22
Improvement+3.6#22
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 17.1% 21.4% 15.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.4 13.1 13.6
.500 or above 98.0% 99.7% 97.2%
.500 or above in Conference 99.6% 100.0% 99.4%
Conference Champion 32.5% 57.0% 21.4%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round17.1% 21.4% 15.2%
Second Round1.3% 2.3% 0.9%
Sweet Sixteen0.2% 0.5% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Arkansas St. (Away) - 31.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 21 - 21 - 4
Quad 35 - 46 - 8
Quad 413 - 319 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 153   Miami (OH) L 63-77 67%     0 - 1 -16.0 -12.6 -3.0
  Nov 10, 2024 18   @ Wisconsin L 56-87 8%     0 - 2 -12.4 -9.1 -3.6
  Nov 19, 2024 210   Queens W 65-53 77%     1 - 2 +6.8 -6.7 +14.4
  Nov 24, 2024 189   William & Mary W 79-76 74%     2 - 2 -1.0 +4.9 -5.8
  Nov 27, 2024 170   Sam Houston St. W 66-63 61%     3 - 2 +2.6 -4.4 +7.2
  Nov 29, 2024 198   Colgate W 72-50 66%     4 - 2 +20.3 +12.6 +11.9
  Nov 30, 2024 141   @ UNC Wilmington L 61-76 44%     4 - 3 -10.7 -1.7 -11.3
  Dec 14, 2024 105   High Point L 59-65 46%     4 - 4 -2.3 -17.9 +15.7
  Dec 18, 2024 307   @ Louisiana L 62-68 78%     4 - 5 0 - 1 -11.4 -9.4 -2.3
  Dec 20, 2024 65   @ North Texas L 64-68 21%     4 - 6 +7.2 +13.8 -7.6
  Jan 02, 2025 117   Troy L 61-69 60%     4 - 7 0 - 2 -8.0 -4.1 -4.8
  Jan 04, 2025 167   Texas St. W 72-61 71%     5 - 7 1 - 2 +8.0 +3.3 +5.9
  Jan 08, 2025 292   Coastal Carolina W 74-51 88%     6 - 7 2 - 2 +12.7 +10.9 +6.8
  Jan 11, 2025 149   James Madison W 86-66 66%     7 - 7 3 - 2 +18.3 +10.1 +7.7
  Jan 16, 2025 283   @ Old Dominion W 62-43 75%     8 - 7 4 - 2 +14.7 +2.2 +16.9
  Jan 18, 2025 149   @ James Madison W 58-50 45%     9 - 7 5 - 2 +11.8 -4.4 +17.3
  Jan 23, 2025 100   @ Arkansas St. L 65-70 31%    
  Jan 25, 2025 347   @ Louisiana Monroe W 70-58 87%    
  Jan 29, 2025 283   Old Dominion W 70-58 88%    
  Feb 01, 2025 280   Georgia St. W 73-61 88%    
  Feb 05, 2025 258   Southern Miss W 72-61 85%    
  Feb 08, 2025 147   @ Ohio L 69-70 44%    
  Feb 13, 2025 292   @ Coastal Carolina W 66-59 75%    
  Feb 15, 2025 280   @ Georgia St. W 71-64 73%    
  Feb 20, 2025 272   Georgia Southern W 74-62 86%    
  Feb 22, 2025 179   Marshall W 70-64 72%    
  Feb 25, 2025 272   @ Georgia Southern W 71-65 71%    
  Feb 28, 2025 179   @ Marshall W 67-66 52%    
Projected Record 18 - 10 13 - 5




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Sun Belt Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.2 3.5 12.7 12.4 3.8 32.5 1st
2nd 0.1 2.9 12.2 10.4 2.1 0.1 27.8 2nd
3rd 0.0 1.2 8.4 7.4 1.3 18.2 3rd
4th 0.3 3.3 5.5 0.8 0.0 9.8 4th
5th 0.0 1.4 3.4 1.2 0.0 6.0 5th
6th 0.2 1.7 1.3 0.0 3.2 6th
7th 0.0 0.6 0.8 0.1 1.5 7th
8th 0.1 0.4 0.1 0.5 8th
9th 0.2 0.1 0.3 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.1 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.0 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 12th
13th 13th
14th 14th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.4 1.3 4.2 9.3 18.2 23.9 24.4 14.5 3.8 Total



Sun Belt Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2 98.7% 3.8    3.4 0.4
15-3 85.4% 12.4    7.5 4.5 0.5
14-4 51.9% 12.7    4.0 6.0 2.4 0.3
13-5 14.5% 3.5    0.4 1.1 1.4 0.5 0.1
12-6 1.2% 0.2    0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 32.5% 32.5 15.3 11.8 4.3 0.9 0.2 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2 3.8% 29.7% 29.7% 12.2 0.2 0.6 0.3 0.1 2.7
15-3 14.5% 23.9% 23.9% 12.8 0.0 1.2 1.7 0.6 0.0 11.1
14-4 24.4% 21.3% 21.3% 13.3 0.6 2.6 1.8 0.2 19.2
13-5 23.9% 16.6% 16.6% 13.7 0.1 1.5 1.9 0.5 19.9
12-6 18.2% 12.4% 12.4% 13.9 0.0 0.5 1.3 0.4 0.0 15.9
11-7 9.3% 7.5% 7.5% 14.4 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.0 8.6
10-8 4.2% 7.4% 7.4% 14.8 0.1 0.2 0.0 3.9
9-9 1.3% 3.8% 3.8% 15.4 0.0 0.0 1.3
8-10 0.4% 2.7% 2.7% 15.0 0.0 0.4
7-11 0.0% 0.0
6-12 0.0% 0.0
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 17.1% 17.1% 0.0% 13.4 0.2 2.5 6.7 6.0 1.6 0.1 82.9 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.7% 100.0% 11.8 26.9 68.7 4.5
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.4%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.5%