Appalachian St.
Sun Belt
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-0.7#171
Expected Predictive Rating-0.7#179
Pace64.6#292
Improvement+1.9#62

Offense
Total Offense-3.4#271
First Shot-4.1#298
After Offensive Rebound+0.7#145
Layup/Dunks-3.4#292
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.6#126
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.7#224
Freethrows+0.4#156
Improvement-0.7#250

Defense
Total Defense+2.7#105
First Shot+3.1#87
After Offensive Rebounds-0.4#212
Layups/Dunks-3.2#293
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.2#281
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.6#50
Freethrows+3.9#9
Improvement+2.7#16
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 7.6% 8.8% 5.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.9 13.8 14.2
.500 or above 68.9% 77.2% 53.6%
.500 or above in Conference 77.4% 84.7% 64.0%
Conference Champion 9.8% 13.1% 3.7%
Last Place in Conference 1.3% 0.4% 2.8%
First Four0.1% 0.1% 0.2%
First Round7.6% 8.8% 5.2%
Second Round0.5% 0.6% 0.3%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Louisiana (Away) - 64.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 21 - 21 - 4
Quad 34 - 54 - 9
Quad 411 - 416 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 195   Miami (OH) L 63-77 65%     0 - 1 -18.6 -12.4 -5.9
  Nov 10, 2024 35   @ Wisconsin L 56-87 8%     0 - 2 -15.9 -11.6 -4.6
  Nov 19, 2024 280   Queens W 65-53 79%     1 - 2 +2.8 -9.3 +13.0
  Nov 24, 2024 225   William & Mary W 79-76 71%     2 - 2 -3.3 +4.4 -7.6
  Nov 27, 2024 128   Sam Houston St. W 66-63 39%     3 - 2 +5.0 -3.2 +8.4
  Nov 29, 2024 224   Colgate W 72-50 60%     4 - 2 +18.7 +11.1 +11.7
  Nov 30, 2024 142   @ UNC Wilmington L 61-76 32%     4 - 3 -11.0 -1.4 -11.9
  Dec 14, 2024 134   High Point L 59-65 42%     4 - 4 -4.6 -17.6 +13.1
  Dec 18, 2024 304   @ Louisiana W 70-66 65%    
  Dec 20, 2024 72   @ North Texas L 53-64 15%    
  Jan 02, 2025 127   Troy W 67-66 51%    
  Jan 04, 2025 138   Texas St. W 66-65 55%    
  Jan 08, 2025 274   Coastal Carolina W 67-59 78%    
  Jan 11, 2025 112   James Madison L 68-69 45%    
  Jan 16, 2025 318   @ Old Dominion W 71-66 67%    
  Jan 18, 2025 112   @ James Madison L 65-72 25%    
  Jan 23, 2025 111   @ Arkansas St. L 64-71 25%    
  Jan 25, 2025 326   @ Louisiana Monroe W 68-62 69%    
  Jan 29, 2025 318   Old Dominion W 74-63 84%    
  Feb 01, 2025 253   Georgia St. W 72-65 75%    
  Feb 05, 2025 282   Southern Miss W 72-63 78%    
  Feb 13, 2025 274   @ Coastal Carolina W 64-62 58%    
  Feb 15, 2025 253   @ Georgia St. W 69-68 55%    
  Feb 20, 2025 235   Georgia Southern W 73-67 71%    
  Feb 22, 2025 186   Marshall W 71-67 62%    
  Feb 25, 2025 235   @ Georgia Southern W 70-69 51%    
  Feb 28, 2025 186   @ Marshall L 68-70 42%    
Projected Record 15 - 12 11 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Sun Belt Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 1.2 2.9 3.1 1.7 0.6 0.1 9.8 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 1.9 4.3 3.5 1.1 0.1 0.0 11.2 2nd
3rd 0.1 2.1 5.2 4.0 0.9 0.0 12.4 3rd
4th 0.1 1.5 5.6 4.5 0.9 0.0 12.6 4th
5th 0.0 0.8 4.6 4.9 1.1 0.0 11.5 5th
6th 0.0 0.4 3.5 5.2 1.4 0.1 10.5 6th
7th 0.2 1.9 4.7 1.9 0.1 0.0 8.8 7th
8th 0.0 0.8 3.5 2.4 0.3 7.0 8th
9th 0.0 0.3 2.2 2.6 0.4 0.0 5.6 9th
10th 0.1 1.3 2.2 0.6 0.0 4.2 10th
11th 0.0 0.6 1.5 0.7 0.0 2.9 11th
12th 0.0 0.3 0.9 0.7 0.1 1.9 12th
13th 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.1 0.0 1.1 13th
14th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.5 14th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.0 2.0 3.9 6.2 9.1 11.9 13.5 14.5 12.9 10.5 7.4 4.2 1.8 0.6 0.1 Total



Sun Belt Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
17-1 99.6% 0.6    0.5 0.0
16-2 93.7% 1.7    1.4 0.3 0.0
15-3 73.7% 3.1    1.8 1.1 0.2 0.0
14-4 39.9% 2.9    1.0 1.4 0.5 0.1 0.0
13-5 11.4% 1.2    0.1 0.4 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0
12-6 1.2% 0.2    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 9.8% 9.8 5.0 3.3 1.2 0.3 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.1% 31.6% 31.6% 11.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
17-1 0.6% 31.9% 31.9% 12.3 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.4
16-2 1.8% 25.1% 25.1% 12.6 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 1.4
15-3 4.2% 22.6% 22.6% 13.1 0.2 0.5 0.2 0.0 3.3
14-4 7.4% 17.4% 17.4% 13.5 0.1 0.6 0.5 0.1 6.1
13-5 10.5% 13.7% 13.7% 13.9 0.0 0.4 0.7 0.3 0.0 9.1
12-6 12.9% 10.2% 10.2% 14.2 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.5 0.0 11.6
11-7 14.5% 6.2% 6.2% 14.4 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.1 13.6
10-8 13.5% 3.9% 3.9% 14.7 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.0 13.0
9-9 11.9% 2.7% 2.7% 15.1 0.0 0.2 0.1 11.6
8-10 9.1% 1.4% 1.4% 15.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 8.9
7-11 6.2% 1.1% 1.1% 16.0 0.0 0.1 6.1
6-12 3.9% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.0 3.9
5-13 2.0% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 2.0
4-14 1.0% 1.0
3-15 0.3% 0.3
2-16 0.1% 0.1
1-17 0.0% 0.0
0-18 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 7.6% 7.6% 0.0% 13.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.7 2.0 2.7 1.8 0.4 92.4 0.0%