IN CC Stats - NCAA Basketball

North Texas
American Athletic
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating	+7.8	#73
Expected Predictive Rating	+18.6	#10

Pace	57.5	#362
Improvement	-	-

Offense
Total Offense	+1.8	#128

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebound	-	-

Layup/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

Defense
Total Defense	+6.0	#31

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebounds	-	-

Layups/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

	Now	Win Next	Lose Next
#1 Overall Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
#1 Seed	0.2%	0.3%	0.0%
Top 2 Seed	0.5%	0.8%	0.1%
Top 4 Seed	1.9%	3.1%	0.7%
Top 6 Seed	4.4%	7.1%	1.8%
NCAA Tourney Bid	28.3%	36.3%	20.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier	15.1%	21.6%	9.4%
Average Seed	9.5	9.2	10.2

.500 or above	93.3%	97.4%	89.4%
.500 or above in Conference	84.9%	89.3%	80.8%
Conference Champion	20.0%	24.4%	15.8%
Last Place in Conference	1.0%	0.4%	1.5%

First Four	6.0%	7.7%	4.4%
First Round	25.3%	32.5%	18.4%
Second Round	11.6%	15.8%	7.5%
Sweet Sixteen	4.0%	5.8%	2.3%
Elite Eight	1.4%	2.1%	0.7%
Final Four	0.5%	0.8%	0.2%
Championship Game	0.2%	0.3%	0.1%
National Champion	0.1%	0.1%	0.0%

Next Game: McNeese St. (Away) - 48.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding

Not in Tournament

Projected Record by Quad
Quad	Projected	Projected Cumulative
Quad 1a	0 - 1	0 - 1
Quad 1b	1 - 1	1 - 2
Quad 2	4 - 3	5 - 5
Quad 3	8 - 3	13 - 8
Quad 4	8 - 1	20 - 9

Date	Opponent		Result/Prediction			Record	Conf		Rating	Offense	Defense
Nov 05, 2024	248	Evansville	W	80-63	91%	1 - 0			+9.7	+11.4	-0.1
Nov 13, 2024	88	@ Minnesota	W	54-51	45%	2 - 0			+12.1	-1.2	+14.0
Nov 18, 2024	99	@ McNeese St.	L	61-62	49%
Nov 25, 2024	103	Oregon St.	W	63-57	71%
Nov 28, 2024	128	Northern Iowa	W	65-60	69%
Dec 06, 2024	125	@ High Point	W	68-66	57%
Dec 18, 2024	364	Mississippi Valley	W	75-44	99.7%
Dec 20, 2024	203	Appalachian St.	W	68-55	88%
Dec 22, 2024	358	Houston Christian	W	78-53	99%
Dec 31, 2024	101	UAB	W	70-64	69%
Jan 05, 2025	34	@ Memphis	L	64-71	28%
Jan 08, 2025	191	Rice	W	68-55	87%
Jan 14, 2025	154	@ East Carolina	W	63-59	64%
Jan 18, 2025	238	@ Texas San Antonio	W	72-64	77%
Jan 22, 2025	112	Temple	W	67-60	73%
Jan 26, 2025	74	Florida Atlantic	W	72-69	60%
Jan 29, 2025	86	@ Wichita St.	L	63-65	43%
Feb 01, 2025	238	Texas San Antonio	W	75-61	88%
Feb 03, 2025	101	@ UAB	L	66-67	50%
Feb 08, 2025	145	Tulane	W	73-63	80%
Feb 11, 2025	191	@ Rice	W	65-58	71%
Feb 19, 2025	142	Tulsa	W	72-62	79%
Feb 23, 2025	120	@ South Florida	W	64-62	56%
Feb 27, 2025	74	@ Florida Atlantic	L	69-72	40%
Mar 03, 2025	86	Wichita St.	W	66-62	63%
Mar 06, 2025	133	Charlotte	W	65-56	78%
Mar 09, 2025	112	@ Temple	W	64-63	53%
Projected Record						19 - 8	12 - 6

Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.

Projected American Athletic Finish

	0-18	1-17	2-16	3-15	4-14	5-13	6-12	7-11	8-10	9-9	10-8	11-7	12-6	13-5	14-4	15-3	16-2	17-1	18-0		Total
1st												0.0	0.3	1.8	4.4	5.7	4.8	2.4	0.7		20.0	1st
2nd											0.0	0.5	3.0	6.4	5.6	2.4	0.5	0.0			18.5	2nd
3rd										0.0	0.3	2.9	5.8	4.2	1.0	0.1					14.4	3rd
4th									0.0	0.2	2.2	5.4	3.2	0.6	0.0						11.6	4th
5th									0.1	1.2	4.3	3.1	0.4	0.0							9.1	5th
6th								0.0	0.5	3.4	2.8	0.6	0.0								7.4	6th
7th							0.0	0.3	2.0	3.0	0.6	0.0									5.9	7th
8th							0.1	1.2	2.4	0.9	0.0										4.6	8th
9th						0.1	0.5	1.8	1.0	0.0											3.4	9th
10th					0.0	0.3	1.0	0.8	0.1	0.0											2.3	10th
11th				0.0	0.2	0.7	0.6	0.2													1.6	11th
12th			0.0	0.1	0.3	0.4	0.1	0.0													0.9	12th
13th	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.0														0.4	13th

Total	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.3	0.6	1.5	2.3	4.2	6.1	8.7	10.4	12.5	12.8	12.9	11.0	8.2	5.3	2.4	0.7			Total

American Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record	Champion	Total		Outright	2-Way	3-Way	4-Way	5-Way	6-Way	7-Way	8-Way
18-0	100.0%	0.7		0.7
17-1	98.2%	2.4		2.2	0.2
16-2	90.2%	4.8		3.9	0.9	0.0
15-3	69.7%	5.7		3.6	1.9	0.2
14-4	39.7%	4.4		1.9	1.9	0.5	0.1
13-5	13.9%	1.8		0.3	0.8	0.5	0.1	0.0
12-6	2.2%	0.3		0.0	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.0	0.0
11-7	0.1%	0.0		0.0				0.0		0.0
10-8	0.0%
9-9	0.0%

Total	20.0%	20.0		12.5	5.8	1.4	0.2	0.0	0.0	0.0

NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf Record	Record Chance		Tourney Bid	Auto	At-Large	Avg Seed		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	No Bid		At-Large if not Auto
18-0	0.7%		97.9%	55.4%	42.6%	3.6		0.1	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0						0.0		95.4%
17-1	2.4%		94.9%	46.9%	48.0%	5.5		0.1	0.2	0.2	0.5	0.4	0.3	0.2	0.1	0.2	0.1	0.1	0.0					0.1		90.4%
16-2	5.3%		88.0%	40.2%	47.9%	7.8		0.0	0.0	0.1	0.3	0.5	0.6	0.6	0.6	0.6	0.6	0.7	0.1					0.6		80.0%
15-3	8.2%		73.0%	31.9%	41.1%	9.4			0.0	0.0	0.0	0.2	0.3	0.5	0.6	0.8	1.2	1.9	0.5					2.2		60.3%
14-4	11.0%		50.4%	24.3%	26.1%	10.5					0.0	0.0	0.1	0.1	0.2	0.5	1.1	2.8	0.8	0.0				5.5		34.5%
13-5	12.9%		32.0%	19.2%	12.8%	11.1								0.0	0.1	0.1	0.5	2.2	1.2	0.0				8.8		15.8%
12-6	12.8%		19.4%	14.2%	5.3%	11.4										0.0	0.1	1.3	1.0	0.1				10.3		6.1%
11-7	12.5%		10.6%	9.1%	1.4%	11.6											0.0	0.5	0.7	0.1	0.0			11.2		1.6%
10-8	10.4%		6.6%	6.2%	0.4%	11.9												0.2	0.5	0.1				9.7		0.4%
9-9	8.7%		3.7%	3.6%	0.1%	12.1												0.0	0.2	0.1	0.0	0.0		8.4		0.1%
8-10	6.1%		2.2%	2.2%		12.5												0.0	0.1	0.0	0.0			6.0
7-11	4.2%		0.6%	0.6%		13.3													0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0		4.1
6-12	2.3%		1.1%	1.1%		14.4														0.0	0.0	0.0		2.3
5-13	1.5%		0.7%	0.7%		15.0																0.0		1.5
4-14	0.6%																							0.6
3-15	0.3%																							0.3
2-16	0.1%																							0.1
1-17	0.0%																							0.0
0-18	0.0%																							0.0

Total	100%		28.3%	15.5%	12.8%	9.5		0.2	0.3	0.5	0.9	1.1	1.4	1.4	1.7	2.3	3.6	9.6	4.9	0.4	0.0	0.0		71.7		15.1%

Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

	Chance	Tourney Bid	Avg Seed	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16
Win Out	0.2%	100.0%	2.5	30.9	29.1	12.7	20.0	3.6	3.6