North Texas
American Athletic
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+7.6#72
Expected Predictive Rating+7.0#91
Pace58.9#360
Improvement+0.2#172

Offense
Total Offense-0.2#176
First Shot-3.6#287
After Offensive Rebound+3.4#22
Layup/Dunks-3.6#301
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.2#301
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.1#210
Freethrows+3.3#34
Improvement-1.4#292

Defense
Total Defense+7.8#10
First Shot+4.1#66
After Offensive Rebounds+3.7#5
Layups/Dunks+7.2#15
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.1#192
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.3#241
Freethrows-1.9#304
Improvement+1.6#61
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.2% 0.2% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.6% 0.6% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 19.4% 19.4% 8.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 1.8% 1.8% 1.4%
Average Seed 11.3 11.3 11.9
.500 or above 97.2% 97.3% 88.6%
.500 or above in Conference 93.1% 93.1% 86.1%
Conference Champion 21.0% 21.0% 7.6%
Last Place in Conference 0.3% 0.3% 0.0%
First Four1.1% 1.1% 1.3%
First Round18.9% 18.9% 7.6%
Second Round6.0% 6.0% 3.8%
Sweet Sixteen1.8% 1.8% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.4% 0.4% 0.0%
Final Four0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Mississippi Valley (Home) - 99.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 11 - 2
Quad 23 - 34 - 6
Quad 38 - 312 - 9
Quad 49 - 121 - 10


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 05, 2024 268   Evansville W 80-63 93%     1 - 0 +8.3 +10.7 -0.9
  Nov 13, 2024 114   @ Minnesota W 54-51 55%     2 - 0 +9.3 -2.1 +12.1
  Nov 18, 2024 92   @ McNeese St. L 61-68 44%     2 - 1 +2.0 -2.0 +3.3
  Nov 25, 2024 67   Oregon St. W 58-55 59%     3 - 1 +8.2 +0.2 +8.6
  Nov 28, 2024 99   Northern Iowa W 68-48 59%     4 - 1 +25.3 +2.1 +24.9
  Nov 29, 2024 47   Utah St. L 57-61 38%     4 - 2 +6.7 -4.9 +11.2
  Dec 06, 2024 134   @ High Point L 71-76 62%     4 - 3 -0.6 -2.9 +2.3
  Dec 18, 2024 364   Mississippi Valley W 74-42 99.8%   
  Dec 20, 2024 171   Appalachian St. W 64-53 86%    
  Dec 22, 2024 356   Houston Christian W 74-50 99%    
  Dec 31, 2024 137   UAB W 72-63 80%    
  Jan 05, 2025 34   @ Memphis L 64-72 24%    
  Jan 08, 2025 197   Rice W 67-55 87%    
  Jan 14, 2025 164   @ East Carolina W 63-58 68%    
  Jan 18, 2025 234   @ Texas San Antonio W 71-63 78%    
  Jan 22, 2025 118   Temple W 67-59 75%    
  Jan 26, 2025 84   Florida Atlantic W 71-67 64%    
  Jan 29, 2025 100   @ Wichita St. L 64-65 48%    
  Feb 01, 2025 234   Texas San Antonio W 74-60 90%    
  Feb 03, 2025 137   @ UAB W 69-66 62%    
  Feb 08, 2025 203   Tulane W 70-57 87%    
  Feb 11, 2025 197   @ Rice W 64-58 71%    
  Feb 19, 2025 247   Tulsa W 71-56 92%    
  Feb 23, 2025 145   @ South Florida W 66-62 64%    
  Feb 27, 2025 84   @ Florida Atlantic L 68-70 43%    
  Mar 03, 2025 100   Wichita St. W 68-62 69%    
  Mar 06, 2025 170   Charlotte W 66-55 84%    
  Mar 09, 2025 118   @ Temple W 64-62 56%    
Projected Record 19 - 9 12 - 6




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected American Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 1.5 4.3 6.3 5.3 2.8 0.6 21.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.7 4.0 8.9 8.8 4.6 1.1 0.1 28.3 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.6 3.6 7.3 5.0 1.2 0.1 17.7 3rd
4th 0.2 2.3 5.4 3.3 0.5 0.0 11.8 4th
5th 0.1 1.2 3.7 2.3 0.4 0.0 7.7 5th
6th 0.0 0.5 2.4 1.8 0.3 0.0 5.0 6th
7th 0.0 0.2 1.3 1.6 0.3 0.0 3.4 7th
8th 0.0 0.6 1.3 0.3 0.0 2.2 8th
9th 0.0 0.2 0.7 0.4 0.0 1.4 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.0 0.8 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.5 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.3 12th
13th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 13th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.9 1.9 3.6 5.7 8.8 12.3 15.2 15.9 14.3 11.0 6.5 2.9 0.6 Total



American Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.6    0.6
17-1 96.6% 2.8    2.5 0.3
16-2 82.3% 5.3    4.0 1.3 0.0
15-3 57.2% 6.3    3.6 2.4 0.2 0.0
14-4 29.9% 4.3    1.6 2.0 0.6 0.0
13-5 9.2% 1.5    0.3 0.6 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0
12-6 1.4% 0.2    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 21.0% 21.0 12.5 6.8 1.4 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.6% 83.9% 48.4% 35.5% 6.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 68.8%
17-1 2.9% 61.6% 41.0% 20.5% 9.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.6 0.1 1.1 34.8%
16-2 6.5% 42.9% 36.1% 6.9% 10.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 1.8 0.4 0.0 3.7 10.8%
15-3 11.0% 31.7% 30.1% 1.7% 11.3 0.0 0.0 0.2 2.1 1.2 0.0 7.5 2.4%
14-4 14.3% 23.4% 23.2% 0.3% 11.6 0.0 1.4 1.8 0.1 0.0 10.9 0.3%
13-5 15.9% 19.7% 19.6% 0.0% 11.9 0.7 2.2 0.2 0.0 12.7 0.0%
12-6 15.2% 14.1% 14.1% 12.0 0.2 1.6 0.3 0.0 13.0
11-7 12.3% 9.6% 9.6% 0.0% 12.2 0.1 0.8 0.3 0.0 11.1 0.0%
10-8 8.8% 6.5% 6.5% 12.4 0.0 0.3 0.2 0.0 8.2
9-9 5.7% 4.7% 4.7% 12.6 0.1 0.1 0.0 5.5
8-10 3.6% 3.5% 3.5% 12.9 0.0 0.1 0.0 3.4
7-11 1.9% 2.5% 2.5% 14.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.9
6-12 0.9% 1.6% 1.6% 15.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.9
5-13 0.4% 1.1% 1.1% 15.5 0.0 0.0 0.4
4-14 0.1% 1.5% 1.5% 15.0 0.0 0.1
3-15 0.0% 0.0
2-16 0.0% 0.0
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 19.4% 17.9% 1.5% 11.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.4 1.0 6.9 8.6 1.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 80.6 1.8%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.3% 100.0% 4.3 7.0 8.5 15.5 29.6 16.2 12.0 4.2 4.2 2.8
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.2% 80.0% 8.6 1.3 1.3 12.0 9.3 13.3 12.0 13.3 16.0 1.3
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.1% 71.1% 9.0 2.6 2.6 7.9 13.2 15.8 13.2 15.8