North Texas
American Athletic
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +1.1 144
Expected Predictive Rating -0.3 166
Pace 63.3 322
Improvement +0.2 178

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense D+ #293 D C C- C+ B
Defense B #46 B C- A D- C+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 49% 6 57% 205 +5.3 25
2 Pt. Jumpers 19% 211 29% 358 -2.3 294
Three Pointers 32% 338 27% 363 -7.5 355
1st FG Attempt 0.93 318 -4.6 318
Second Chance 33.4% 94 0.97 272 0.32 148
Turnovers 17.9% 246
Freethrows 0.34 77 70% 265 0.24 126
Total Offense -4.5 293

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 39% 183 55% 87 +1.2 131
2 Pt. Jumpers 22% 107 36% 116 -0.3 216
Three Pointers 39% 249 30% 41 +3.3 51
1st FG Attempt 0.93 54 +4.2 54
Second Chance 32.9% 284 1.02 161 0.33 242
Turnovers 22.7% 6
Freethrows 0.38 345 71% 109 0.27 334
Total Defense +5.6 46

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Selection +0.9 61 -0.2 125
Shot Type Accuracy -5.3 337 -3.9 49
Possession Length 18.5 296 17.5 227
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.23 51 0.19 235
Improvement -0.2 #188 +0.3 #165

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 2% 2% 2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 13.6 13.2 13.9
.500 or above 55% 75% 42%
.500 or above in Conference 25% 42% 13%
Conference Champion 0% 0% 0%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0%
First Four0% 0% 0%
First Round2% 2% 2%
Second Round0% 0% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%

Next Game: Memphis (Home) - 41.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 3
Quad 21 - 51 - 8
Quad 35 - 56 - 13
Quad 49 - 215 - 15


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Thu, Nov 6 280 Northwestern St. W 80 - 53 85% +8  95% 1 - 0 A- +17 A+ +15 A A+ D+ B+ +7 C A+ A+
 Sun, Nov 9 277 Loyola Chicago W 64 - 62 77% +4  75% 2 - 0 C- -5 F -11 F+ F F B+ +7 A+ C C+
 Wed, Nov 12 178 @Oregon St. L 64 - 66 47% +6  90% 2 - 1 C -0 D+ -3 B- C+ F B- +3 B+ B- D-
 Fri, Nov 14 40 @St. Mary's L 49 - 80 9% -23  4% 2 - 2 F+ -15 F -15 F D B+ C -1 A F A+
 Thu, Nov 20 190 Central Arkansas W 74 - 56 72% +5  75% 3 - 2 B+ +13 D+ -3 F D+ A A+ +16 A- A A+
 Tue, Nov 25 229 Eastern Washington W 79 - 71 OT 77% +2  69% 4 - 2 C +1 D -5 F C+ C B+ +6 A- B B-
 Sun, Nov 30 336 Prairie View W 72 - 69 92% -2  24% 5 - 2 D- -11 F -10 B- F F C -1 C- D C
 Tue, Dec 2 298 Houston Christian W 77 - 75 87% +1  58% 6 - 2 D -9 B- +5 A+ B F F -13 F A+ F
 Sun, Dec 7 50 TCU L 55 - 65 26% -2  24% 6 - 3 C- -2 F -12 D- C- C A- +9 A F+ A+
 Sun, Dec 14 191 @South Alabama W 58 - 57 50% +4  79% 7 - 3 C+ +2 F+ -10 F B F A +12 A+ F A-
 Wed, Dec 17 44 Santa Clara L 60 - 63 15% +2  60% 7 - 4 B +9 F+ -9 F A B+ A+ +18 A+ F A+
 Wed, Dec 31 86 @Memphis L 48 - 57 22% -8  0% 7 - 5 0 - 1 C +0 F -16 F C F A+ +16 C- B- A+
 Sun, Jan 4 70 Tulsa W 72 - 67 35% -0  39% 8 - 5 1 - 1 B +10 B- +4 C A B+ B+ +6 A+ F+ A+
 Wed, Jan 7 62 South Florida L 70 - 74 33% -0  43% 8 - 6 1 - 2 C+ +2 C- -2 C+ C+ C B- +3 B- F A+
 Sun, Jan 11 96 @Wichita St. L 67 - 78 24% -8  4% 8 - 7 1 - 3 C- -3 D -4 F B+ C C+ +2 F B- A+
 Sun, Jan 18 174 @Tulane W 71 - 63 46% +6  87% 9 - 7 2 - 3 B +10 C- -0 C- D+ F A +11 A+ C B-
 Wed, Jan 21 350 Texas San Antonio W 81 - 62 93% +14  99% 10 - 7 3 - 3 C+ +3 C +1 C A+ F+ B- +3 C+ A+ A-
 Fri, Jan 23 252 East Carolina L 59 - 63 81% -3  3% 10 - 8 3 - 4 D- -12 F -14 F C- A+ C+ +1 B- F A+
 Wed, Jan 28 70 @Tulsa L 66 - 82 18% -4  5% 10 - 9 3 - 5 D+ -5 F+ -8 D- D- C- B- +3 B D- B+
 Sat, Jan 31 118 UAB L 68 - 72 55% -0  49% 10 - 10 3 - 6 C- -4 D+ -4 D- D A+ C -1 F C+ A+
 Wed, Feb 4 220 @Rice L 83 - 86 2OT 55% +1  45% 10 - 11 3 - 7 C- -3 D -5 F+ D+ B B- +2 A F A+
 Sat, Feb 7 350 @Texas San Antonio W 81 - 58 84% +10  57% 11 - 11 4 - 7 B+ +13 C +1 D+ B+ D- A +12 B- C+ A+
 Thu, Feb 12 86 Memphis L 64 - 66 42%
 Sun, Feb 15 148 @Temple L 64 - 67 40%
 Wed, Feb 18 174 Tulane W 68 - 63 68%
 Sun, Feb 22 114 Florida Atlantic W 69 - 68 54%
 Wed, Feb 25 168 @Charlotte L 65 - 66 44%
 Sun, Mar 1 118 @UAB L 65 - 70 33%
 Wed, Mar 4 220 Rice W 69 - 62 74%
Totals 15 - 14 8 - 10 +1 D+ -4 D C C- B +6 B C- A



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings D+ C- F F D- 49% 19% 32% B D B- D+ C C- B- D+ C+ B B- C+ B+ B 39% 22% 39% C+ B D+ C C- A F+ C+ D-
1.02 57% 29% 27% -5 +1 0.93 33% 1.0 .32 18% .34 70% .24 1.01 55% 36% 30% -4 0 0.93 33% 1.0 .33 23% .38 71% .24
Nov
6		 Northwestern St. A+ A- A A+ A+ 38% 14% 48% C A A+ B A+ D+ A+ F B B+ A+ F B+ D+ 16% 41% 44% A+ C F A+ A+ A+ F C F
1.35 69% 50% 45% +14 +1 1.31 46% 1.3 .58 19% .46 64% .29 0.90 40% 54% 29% 0 -4 0.94 33% 0.3 .10 27% .63 74% .46
Nov
9		 Loyola Chicago F C+ F D+ F 50% 21% 29% B F+ B F F F A+ B- A+ B+ B- A+ A+ A+ 39% 11% 50% C A+ D B+ C C+ F C F
0.97 57% 11% 33% -6 +1 0.90 35% 0.5 .16 18% .50 81% .41 0.94 53% 20% 18% -16 +1 0.73 36% 0.8 .30 20% .59 68% .40
Nov
12		 Oregon St. D+ D+ A+ C C+ 56% 7% 37% A B- A- F+ C+ F C F+ D+ B- A+ F C- A 37% 9% 53% F+ B+ A- D- B- D- F D- F
1.02 52% 67% 33% -1 +3 1.05 40% 0.8 .33 22% .33 69% .22 1.05 31% 50% 35% -8 +1 0.88 20% 1.3 .27 14% .52 82% .43
Nov
14		 St. Mary's F F F C- F 47% 17% 36% A- F D+ F D B+ C A+ B C A+ A+ D A+ 47% 13% 40% F+ A F D+ F A+ F+ C F+
0.73 16% 22% 32% -24 +1 0.57 21% 0.7 .15 12% .24 86% .20 1.20 43% 17% 39% -7 +2 0.91 54% 1.2 .62 22% .41 81% .33
Nov
20		 Central Arkansas D+ A F F F 43% 25% 32% D+ F B- F D+ A A+ A+ A+ A+ A- A+ C A 37% 16% 47% C- A- F+ A+ A A+ F A+ F
1.08 74% 18% 14% -8 0 0.86 31% 0.9 .29 15% .55 84% .46 0.82 50% 17% 33% -7 +1 0.89 33% 0.5 .15 28% .64 56% .36
Nov
25		 Eastern Washington D C+ D F F 42% 17% 42% C- F C- B+ C+ C A+ F A+ B+ C+ A- A- A- 40% 26% 34% C+ A- D- A+ B B- D+ D- D
1.08 60% 38% 20% -8 +1 0.88 32% 1.3 .41 16% .49 67% .33 0.97 55% 31% 29% -5 -1 0.90 36% 0.8 .28 21% .33 79% .26
Nov
30		 Prairie View F A+ F A+ B- 52% 20% 27% C+ B- D+ F F F A+ D+ A C C+ C- A+ C+ 49% 27% 24% F C- B F D C D+ F+ D-
1.02 74% 0% 50% +7 +1 1.18 34% 0.6 .21 27% .51 69% .35 0.98 54% 38% 25% -5 0 0.92 18% 1.5 .27 16% .37 82% .30
Dec
2		 Houston Christian B- C+ F A+ A+ 61% 5% 34% A+ A+ C+ A- B F A+ F C- F F C- F F 39% 18% 43% C- F A A+ A+ F F A+ F
1.24 64% 0% 64% +17 +4 1.44 35% 1.2 .42 24% .40 47% .19 1.21 71% 38% 42% +10 0 1.23 21% 0.3 .06 6% .55 59% .33
Dec
7		 TCU F C F F F 59% 14% 27% A+ D- F A+ C- C A- B- B+ A- C+ F A+ A 40% 30% 30% A A D D- F+ A+ F A D
0.82 54% 17% 17% -12 +2 0.82 14% 1.8 .24 21% .32 71% .23 0.97 59% 46% 15% -6 -1 0.88 38% 1.2 .47 25% .44 64% .28
Dec
14		 South Alabama F+ C A+ F F 20% 4% 76% C+ F C- A+ B F A+ F+ A A A- B A+ A+ 67% 14% 19% F A+ F+ F F A- F D+ F
0.91 60% 50% 19% -16 +1 0.71 31% 1.4 .43 22% .32 69% .22 0.89 46% 33% 0% -18 +3 0.71 29% 1.4 .42 17% .41 68% .28
Dec
17		 Santa Clara F+ D B F F 61% 12% 27% A F B- A+ A B+ A+ D+ A+ A+ B+ C A+ A+ 33% 20% 47% B A+ F+ F F A+ D A+ C
0.89 52% 40% 9% -13 +3 0.80 34% 1.3 .45 18% .49 70% .34 0.93 53% 44% 24% -7 0 0.87 43% 1.6 .70 31% .28 62% .17
Dec
31		 Memphis F D+ C- F F 52% 13% 35% A F D A C F F F F A+ D+ F A C- 39% 24% 37% C+ C- C- B+ B- A+ D+ A+ A+
0.72 54% 33% 6% -17 +2 0.72 26% 1.1 .29 27% .17 63% .10 0.86 63% 50% 27% +1 0 1.02 38% 1.0 .38 30% .32 27% .09
Jan
4		 Tulsa B- C+ F B+ C 44% 27% 29% C- C B- A+ A B+ B+ B+ A- B+ A D+ A A+ 51% 16% 33% B- A+ C F F+ A+ F D F
1.16 60% 25% 38% -1 0 1.00 29% 1.4 .42 13% .33 78% .26 1.08 45% 43% 29% -8 +1 0.88 32% 1.6 .50 21% .51 84% .43
Jan
7		 South Florida C- B D- C+ C+ 46% 26% 28% C+ C+ C+ C+ C+ C B F F+ B- C A+ A B- 50% 11% 39% C B- C- F F A+ F C- F
1.02 61% 31% 36% 0 0 1.02 32% 1.0 .32 19% .36 45% .16 1.08 58% 25% 27% -6 +2 0.95 39% 1.5 .58 25% .70 75% .53
Jan
11		 Wichita St. D F F B+ F 60% 25% 15% A F A- C+ B+ C A B- A C+ C F+ F F 52% 25% 23% C- F D A B- A+ F D- F
0.94 39% 29% 38% -13 +1 0.78 36% 1.0 .36 17% .37 73% .27 1.10 57% 45% 50% +7 0 1.16 43% 0.8 .36 25% .55 72% .40
Jan
18		 Tulane C- F+ D B+ D+ 47% 13% 40% B+ C- A F D+ F A+ A+ A+ A A+ A+ D+ A+ 25% 23% 52% A- A+ C C+ C B- F C+ F
1.06 48% 33% 39% -2 +2 1.00 44% 0.6 .28 22% .52 81% .42 0.94 36% 10% 35% -11 -1 0.77 21% 1.1 .24 16% .59 76% .44
Jan
21		 Texas San Antonio C C+ F B- C- 43% 12% 45% B- C A+ C A+ F+ A+ F A+ B- A D B- C 27% 27% 45% A C+ A- A+ A+ A- F F F
1.19 62% 17% 36% +1 +1 1.06 54% 1.1 .59 19% .47 62% .29 0.91 42% 42% 30% -6 -2 0.86 24% 0.5 .12 22% .45 83% .38
Jan
23		 East Carolina F C- F F F 41% 26% 33% C- F C- C C- A+ C+ D- C C+ A+ A+ F C+ 33% 30% 38% B+ B- F F F A+ F D+ F
0.92 55% 21% 17% -14 -1 0.72 29% 1.2 .33 11% .28 69% .19 0.98 38% 25% 40% -7 -2 0.85 45% 1.2 .55 28% .50 74% .37
Jan
28		 Tulsa F+ F+ A+ F F 56% 12% 33% A D- B- F D- C- A F B B- C+ B B- A- 56% 6% 38% F+ B C+ F D- B+ D+ F+ D-
0.93 48% 50% 24% -9 +2 0.88 30% 0.7 .21 17% .37 64% .24 1.16 56% 33% 33% -2 +3 1.04 31% 1.6 .48 18% .36 86% .31
Jan
31		 UAB D+ C+ C- F F+ 50% 23% 27% B- D- C- F D A+ A+ C A+ C F F+ C F 43% 23% 34% C F A- F C+ A+ C- A+ B-
1.02 62% 33% 14% -7 +1 0.88 25% 0.7 .17 9% .38 74% .28 1.08 70% 45% 31% +6 0 1.13 27% 1.3 .33 18% .33 61% .20
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Feb
4		 Rice D A+ D+ F D- 31% 41% 28% F+ F+ B F D+ B B+ F C+ B- F A+ B+ A- 13% 37% 50% A+ A F C- F A+ F C- F
1.03 79% 32% 18% -3 -3 0.90 37% 0.8 .29 14% .39 67% .26 1.07 71% 25% 30% -6 -4 0.81 51% 1.0 .49 27% .44 69% .31
Feb
7		 Texas San Antonio C A- F F D 48% 19% 33% C+ D+ A+ D- B+ D- A+ A+ A+ A F+ A- A+ B- 41% 30% 28% B+ B- B- C- C+ A+ F B F+
1.16 70% 22% 25% -2 +1 1.00 53% 1.0 .50 19% .41 83% .33 0.83 63% 29% 15% -9 -1 0.83 27% 0.9 .24 26% .35 67% .23



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected American Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 0.0 0.0 2nd
3rd 0.1 0.5 0.6 3rd
4th 1.4 0.4 1.7 4th
5th 0.3 2.9 0.1 3.3 5th
6th 2.5 1.9 4.4 6th
7th 0.6 7.5 0.3 8.4 7th
8th 0.2 6.9 5.7 0.0 12.8 8th
9th 0.2 6.5 14.8 1.2 22.6 9th
10th 0.1 4.1 14.3 4.3 0.0 22.8 10th
11th 0.2 3.9 10.5 4.9 0.2 19.7 11th
12th 0.7 1.8 1.1 0.1 3.6 12th
13th 13th
Total 0.8 5.9 15.9 26.0 26.7 17.3 6.5 1.0 Total



American Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7 1.0% 7.8% 7.8% 12.3 0.1 0.0 1.0
10-8 6.5% 5.2% 5.2% 12.6 0.2 0.2 0.0 6.2
9-9 17.3% 2.4% 2.4% 12.9 0.1 0.3 0.0 0.0 16.8
8-10 26.7% 1.5% 1.5% 13.7 0.1 0.2 0.0 26.3
7-11 26.0% 1.5% 1.5% 14.4 0.0 0.2 0.2 25.6
6-12 15.9% 1.1% 1.1% 15.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 15.7
5-13 5.9% 0.5% 0.5% 15.3 0.0 0.0 5.8
4-14 0.8% 0.8
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 1.8% 1.8% 0.0% 13.6 98.2 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.4%