Preseason Rankings
Northwestern St.
Southland
2025-26
Overall
Predictive Rating-5.0#255
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace61.5#340
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense-3.4#276
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense-1.6#223
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 4.3% 9.9% 4.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.6 13.5 14.1
.500 or above 28.5% 66.5% 27.7%
.500 or above in Conference 50.0% 79.3% 49.4%
Conference Champion 4.2% 9.9% 4.0%
Last Place in Conference 8.3% 1.0% 8.4%
First Four0.3% 0.6% 0.3%
First Round4.3% 10.3% 4.1%
Second Round0.2% 1.0% 0.2%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.6% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Texas A&M (Away) - 2.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 2
Quad 20 - 30 - 6
Quad 32 - 63 - 12
Quad 410 - 612 - 18


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 03, 2025 35   @ Texas A&M L 55-76 2%    
  Nov 06, 2025 89   @ North Texas L 51-65 10%    
  Nov 11, 2025 195   @ North Alabama L 63-69 29%    
  Nov 18, 2025 75   @ San Francisco L 59-74 9%    
  Nov 21, 2025 80   @ Grand Canyon L 62-77 9%    
  Nov 29, 2025 186   Southern L 65-66 49%    
  Dec 05, 2025 96   @ McNeese St. L 57-70 12%    
  Dec 07, 2025 243   @ SE Louisiana L 64-67 38%    
  Dec 13, 2025 91   @ California L 60-74 12%    
  Dec 29, 2025 218   Lamar W 63-62 55%    
  Dec 31, 2025 212   Stephen F. Austin W 65-64 53%    
  Jan 03, 2026 312   New Orleans W 73-67 70%    
  Jan 05, 2026 233   @ Nicholls St. L 64-68 36%    
  Jan 10, 2026 221   TX A&M Corpus Christi W 66-65 55%    
  Jan 12, 2026 270   UT Rio Grande Valley W 72-68 62%    
  Jan 17, 2026 209   @ Incarnate Word L 62-67 33%    
  Jan 19, 2026 289   @ Houston Christian L 63-64 47%    
  Jan 24, 2026 333   East Texas A&M W 69-61 75%    
  Jan 26, 2026 212   @ Stephen F. Austin L 62-67 34%    
  Jan 31, 2026 312   @ New Orleans W 70-69 51%    
  Feb 02, 2026 233   Nicholls St. W 67-65 56%    
  Feb 07, 2026 333   @ East Texas A&M W 66-64 57%    
  Feb 09, 2026 218   @ Lamar L 60-65 35%    
  Feb 14, 2026 243   SE Louisiana W 67-64 58%    
  Feb 16, 2026 96   McNeese St. L 60-67 27%    
  Feb 21, 2026 289   Houston Christian W 66-61 65%    
  Feb 23, 2026 209   Incarnate Word W 65-64 53%    
  Feb 28, 2026 221   @ TX A&M Corpus Christi L 63-68 35%    
  Mar 02, 2026 270   @ UT Rio Grande Valley L 69-71 43%    
Projected Record 12 - 17 11 - 11




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southland Finish

0-22 1-21 2-20 3-19 4-18 5-17 6-16 7-15 8-14 9-13 10-12 11-11 12-10 13-9 14-8 15-7 16-6 17-5 18-4 19-3 20-2 21-1 22-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.0 1.0 0.7 0.4 0.2 0.0 4.2 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 0.9 1.9 2.3 1.5 0.8 0.2 0.0 7.9 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.3 1.5 2.9 2.6 1.1 0.2 0.0 0.0 8.7 3rd
4th 0.0 0.4 2.0 3.6 2.6 0.9 0.1 0.0 9.7 4th
5th 0.0 0.5 2.5 4.0 2.4 0.6 0.1 0.0 10.0 5th
6th 0.0 0.5 2.6 4.2 2.2 0.5 0.0 10.1 6th
7th 0.0 0.5 2.6 3.9 2.3 0.4 0.0 9.7 7th
8th 0.0 0.7 2.5 4.0 2.2 0.4 0.0 9.9 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.7 2.5 3.6 1.9 0.3 0.0 9.1 9th
10th 0.0 0.2 1.1 2.5 2.9 1.6 0.3 8.6 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.4 2.1 2.0 0.9 0.1 0.0 7.1 11th
12th 0.0 0.3 0.8 1.3 1.4 0.9 0.3 0.0 0.0 5.2 12th
Total 0.0 0.3 0.9 1.7 3.0 4.2 5.6 7.1 8.3 9.2 9.5 9.8 9.0 8.2 7.0 5.7 4.1 2.7 1.8 1.0 0.4 0.2 0.0 Total



Southland Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
22-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
21-1 100.0% 0.2    0.2 0.0
20-2 91.4% 0.4    0.3 0.1
19-3 75.5% 0.7    0.6 0.1
18-4 55.7% 1.0    0.7 0.3 0.0
17-5 36.1% 1.0    0.4 0.5 0.1 0.0
16-6 13.9% 0.6    0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
15-7 3.7% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
14-8 0.4% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
13-9 0.0% 0.0    0.0
12-10 0.0%
11-11 0.0%
Total 4.2% 4.2 2.5 1.3 0.3 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
22-0 0.0% 100.0% 66.8% 33.2% 10.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
21-1 0.2% 41.4% 41.4% 11.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
20-2 0.4% 40.0% 40.0% 12.4 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3
19-3 1.0% 39.8% 39.8% 13.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.6
18-4 1.8% 27.9% 27.9% 13.3 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 1.3
17-5 2.7% 25.0% 25.0% 13.6 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 2.0
16-6 4.1% 15.9% 15.9% 14.3 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.0 3.4
15-7 5.7% 12.0% 12.0% 15.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.1 5.0
14-8 7.0% 6.3% 6.3% 16.4 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 6.6
13-9 8.2% 2.9% 2.9% 17.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 8.0
12-10 9.0% 1.6% 1.6% 18.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 8.9
11-11 9.8% 1.3% 1.3% 16.4 0.0 0.1 9.7
10-12 9.5% 0.9% 0.9% 16.8 0.1 9.4
9-13 9.2% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 9.2
8-14 8.3% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 8.3
7-15 7.1% 7.1
6-16 5.6% 5.6
5-17 4.2% 4.2
4-18 3.0% 3.0
3-19 1.7% 1.7
2-20 0.9% 0.9
1-21 0.3% 0.3
0-22 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 4.3% 4.2% 0.0% 14.6 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.9 1.4 1.0 0.6 95.7 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.0%