UT Rio Grande Valley
Southland
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -3.4 #218
Expected Predictive Rating -5.0 #236
Pace 69.2 #169
Improvement -2.0 #271

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #259 C D C- F C
Defense #181 C B- C C- C

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 37% #237 1.14 #196 -1.6 #242
2 Pt. Jumpers 18% #212 0.67 #305 -1.6 #262
Three Pointers 45% #105 1.10 #73 +3.9 #63
1st FG Attempt 1.03 #158 +0.7 #157
Freethrows 12.4 #361 74% #131 9.1 #356
Second Chance 26.2% #297 1.01 #223 0.27 #284
Turnovers 17.2% #228
Total Offense -3.0 #259

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 36% #255 1.23 #275 +0.2 #171
2 Pt. Jumpers 20% #183 0.67 #50 +1.0 #114
Three Pointers 44% #100 0.99 #152 -1.0 #222
1st FG Attempt 1.01 #173 +0.2 #171
Freethrows 19.0 #257 72% #172 13.7 #255
Second Chance 30.3% #161 0.96 #63 0.29 #105
Turnovers 16.3% #195
Total Defense -0.4 #181

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 0.2% #182 -0.3% #139
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 1.2% #161 -0.1% #182
Possession Length 17.6 #205 17.1 #152
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.14 #263 0.18 #202
Improvement -1.9 #293 -0.1 #194

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 1.5% 2.0% 0.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.1 15.0 15.4
.500 or above 11.2% 16.7% 4.4%
.500 or above in Conference 37.0% 49.5% 21.8%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 3.8% 1.1% 7.0%
First Four0.2% 0.2% 0.2%
First Round1.4% 1.9% 0.8%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Houston Christian (Away) - 55.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 3
Quad 20 - 20 - 5
Quad 33 - 54 - 10
Quad 49 - 812 - 18


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 41 @Baylor L 81 - 96 5% -6  0 - 1 +0 +5 A+ F C -3 F A+ C+
 Sat, Nov 8 284 @Southern Utah W 95 - 72 52% +11  1 - 1 +19 +18 A+ C- F +0 C+ A- F
 Tue, Nov 11 66 @Boise St. L 65 - 85 9% -9  1 - 2 -9 -6 B+ D F -1 C F A+
 Sat, Nov 22 179 @Missouri St. L 67 - 74 31% +2  1 - 3 -5 +2 F A+ F -8 C- A+ F
 Mon, Nov 24 9 @Illinois L 73 - 87 1% -8  1 - 4 +9 +9 B+ C+ A+ +0 C- A+ B+
 Wed, Dec 3 105 @Stephen F. Austin L 60 - 73 15% -8  1 - 5 0 - 1 -6 -6 F F A+ -0 B+ B+ F
 Sun, Dec 7 171 Austin Peay W 63 - 50 52% +0  2 - 5 +9 -9 F A+ F +18 A+ A+ B
 Thu, Dec 11 156 Texas Arlington L 50 - 58 48% -0  2 - 6 -11 -10 D- F D+ -2 C C+ B+
 Tue, Dec 16 211 @Lamar W 83 - 72 38% +12  3 - 6 1 - 1 +11 +13 A+ F A -2 F A+ B-
 Mon, Dec 29 235 New Orleans L 69 - 85 64% -8  3 - 7 1 - 2 -23 -11 B- F F -12 C F F
 Wed, Dec 31 232 Nicholls St. L 69 - 71 64% -2  3 - 8 1 - 3 -9 -8 F B+ F -1 B- D- A+
 Sat, Jan 3 186 TX A&M Corpus Christi L 59 - 63 55% -1  3 - 9 1 - 4 -9 -6 F F B+ -4 C F B
 Mon, Jan 5 223 Incarnate Word W 80 - 67 63% +8  4 - 9 2 - 4 +6 +10 C A+ B- -3 B+ B+ D+
 Sat, Jan 10 308 @East Texas A&M L 69 - 77 58% -9  4 - 10 2 - 5 -13 +1 B F C- -15 F F C-
 Mon, Jan 12 276 @Northwestern St. L 63 - 64 50% +4  4 - 11 2 - 6 -4 -10 F F F +6 B+ B+ B+
 Sat, Jan 17 87 McNeese St. W 79 - 76 24% +10  5 - 11 3 - 6 +7 +14 A+ C+ A -7 B A+ D
 Mon, Jan 19 272 SE Louisiana W 68 - 65 71% +4  6 - 11 4 - 6 -6 -2 C- F A+ -4 D- A+ D
 Sat, Jan 24 298 @Houston Christian W 72 - 71 55%
 Mon, Jan 26 186 @TX A&M Corpus Christi L 66 - 71 33%
 Sat, Jan 31 223 @Incarnate Word L 69 - 72 40%
 Mon, Feb 2 298 Houston Christian W 75 - 68 76%
 Sat, Feb 7 235 @New Orleans L 77 - 79 41%
 Mon, Feb 9 232 @Nicholls St. L 74 - 76 41%
 Sat, Feb 14 105 Stephen F. Austin L 67 - 72 32%
 Mon, Feb 16 211 Lamar W 69 - 66 60%
 Sat, Feb 21 272 @SE Louisiana L 68 - 69 49%
 Mon, Feb 23 87 @McNeese St. L 66 - 79 11%
 Sat, Feb 28 308 East Texas A&M W 76 - 68 77%
 Mon, Mar 2 276 Northwestern St. W 75 - 69 71%
Totals 12 - 17 10 - 12 -3 -3 C D C- +0 C B- C




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southland Finish

0-22 1-21 2-20 3-19 4-18 5-17 6-16 7-15 8-14 9-13 10-12 11-11 12-10 13-9 14-8 15-7 16-6 17-5 18-4 19-3 20-2 21-1 22-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.2 2nd
3rd 0.2 1.5 2.6 1.6 0.3 0.0 6.2 3rd
4th 0.2 3.0 5.1 2.5 0.3 0.0 11.2 4th
5th 0.1 3.1 7.6 4.1 0.5 0.0 15.4 5th
6th 0.0 1.8 8.4 5.7 0.6 0.0 16.5 6th
7th 0.0 0.8 6.8 7.4 1.1 0.0 16.1 7th
8th 0.2 3.7 7.4 1.8 0.0 13.2 8th
9th 0.0 1.7 5.7 2.5 0.1 10.0 9th
10th 0.0 0.5 3.3 2.5 0.2 0.0 6.4 10th
11th 0.0 0.2 1.4 1.7 0.2 3.6 11th
12th 0.1 0.4 0.7 0.2 0.0 1.3 12th
Total 0.1 0.5 2.6 7.1 12.9 18.7 21.1 17.6 11.3 5.7 1.9 0.4 0.0 Total



Southland Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
22-0
21-1
20-2
19-3
18-4
17-5
16-6 0.0%
15-7 0.0%
14-8 0.0%
13-9 0.0%
12-10 0.0%
11-11 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
22-0
21-1
20-2
19-3
18-4
17-5
16-6 0.0% 0.0 0.0
15-7 0.4% 13.6% 13.6% 13.6 0.0 0.0 0.4
14-8 1.9% 6.4% 6.4% 13.7 0.0 0.1 0.0 1.8
13-9 5.7% 5.8% 5.8% 14.7 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 5.4
12-10 11.3% 2.8% 2.8% 15.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.0 11.0
11-11 17.6% 1.5% 1.5% 15.4 0.2 0.1 17.3
10-12 21.1% 1.4% 1.4% 15.9 0.0 0.3 20.8
9-13 18.7% 0.4% 0.4% 15.9 0.0 0.1 18.6
8-14 12.9% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 12.9
7-15 7.1% 7.1
6-16 2.6% 2.6
5-17 0.5% 0.5
4-18 0.1% 0.1
3-19
2-20
1-21
0-22
Total 100% 1.5% 1.5% 0.0% 15.1 98.5 0.0%