New Orleans
Southland
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
Switch to All-time Team Page
Predictive Rating -3.4 225
Expected Predictive Rating -1.8 199
Pace 73.3 60
Improvement +0.0 184

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense C #149 C- B- D A- C-
Defense D+ #297 C D+ D D- D+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 40% 133 55% 251 -0.1 179
2 Pt. Jumpers 25% 84 39% 156 +1.9 81
Three Pointers 34% 311 35% 121 -2.6 276
1st FG Attempt 1.00 199 -0.8 201
Second Chance 34.5% 71 1.05 148 0.36 84
Turnovers 19.3% 314
Freethrows 0.36 28 76% 66 0.28 20
Total Offense +0.6 149

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 40% 149 54% 77 +0.9 139
2 Pt. Jumpers 18% 265 44% 345 +0.0 198
Three Pointers 42% 127 33% 140 -0.2 196
1st FG Attempt 1.01 158 +0.6 158
Second Chance 35.3% 334 1.02 166 0.36 297
Turnovers 14.8% 310
Freethrows 0.36 321 74% 266 0.26 324
Total Defense -4.0 297

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Selection -0.5 251 +0.4 253
Shot Type Accuracy -0.3 181 -1.1 138
Possession Length 17.1 145 16.1 22
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.15 240 0.19 240
Improvement -0.3 #203 +0.3 #171

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 2% 2% 1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 15.2 15.0 15.5
.500 or above 8% 12% 2%
.500 or above in Conference 80% 93% 64%
Conference Champion 0% 0% 0%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0%
First Four0% 0% 0%
First Round2% 2% 1%
Second Round0% 0% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%

Next Game: Houston Christian (Away) - 55.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b1 - 21 - 4
Quad 21 - 42 - 8
Quad 32 - 54 - 13
Quad 410 - 614 - 18


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 50 @TCU W 78 - 74 6% +12  89% 1 - 0 A +18 B +6 B+ A+ F A +11 A+ D D
 Mon, Nov 10 57 @LSU L 58 - 93 7% -17  0% 1 - 1 F -22 F -15 F C A- D -6 C+ B- F
 Fri, Nov 14 174 @Tulane W 85 - 63 30% +11  99% 2 - 1 A+ +24 A+ +16 A+ A+ F+ A- +9 A+ A- F
 Tue, Nov 18 291 @Pepperdine L 79 - 90 55% -6  12% 2 - 2 F+ -16 C- -1 C- B- F F -14 D- B- F
 Fri, Nov 21 140 @Fresno St. L 76 - 85 23% -4  11% 2 - 3 C- -5 C- -2 D+ C+ F+ C- -2 B F C+
 Mon, Nov 24 79 @Mississippi St. L 78 - 81 OT 11% +4  68% 2 - 4 B- +7 C +2 C B- F B +6 A- F B
 Wed, Nov 26 16 @Texas Tech L 50 - 82 2% -12  6% 2 - 5 D -11 F -16 F C+ F B +6 A+ F B
 Wed, Dec 3 86 @Memphis L 70 - 86 12% -16  0% 2 - 6 D+ -7 C+ +3 C+ D- B F+ -9 F A+ C-
 Sat, Dec 6 298 Houston Christian L 76 - 85 76% -4  16% 2 - 7 0 - 1 F -20 C- -1 D+ D A F -19 D+ F F
 Mon, Dec 8 255 Incarnate Word W 84 - 83 69% +8  95% 3 - 7 1 - 1 D+ -7 B- +4 A+ D F F -12 F+ F C
 Sat, Dec 13 5 @Houston L 57 - 99 1% -25  0% 3 - 8 F+ -16 D -4 D A+ F F -13 F A D
 Mon, Dec 29 149 @UT Rio Grande Valley W 85 - 69 25% +8  88% 4 - 8 2 - 1 A +20 A +12 C A+ B+ B+ +7 D+ A+ A
 Wed, Dec 31 198 @TX A&M Corpus Christi L 69 - 83 35% -6  17% 4 - 9 2 - 2 D- -14 C- -2 D C D- F -12 B+ F F
 Sat, Jan 3 280 @Northwestern St. L 68 - 74 52% +5  81% 4 - 10 2 - 3 D -10 D -5 F C- C+ D -6 A F D
 Mon, Jan 5 300 East Texas A&M W 83 - 73 77% +8  99% 5 - 10 3 - 3 C -1 B- +4 D+ F A D -5 C B+ F+
 Sat, Jan 10 266 Nicholls St. L 77 - 90 70% -7  4% 5 - 11 3 - 4 F -22 B +6 C+ A D F -30 F F F
 Mon, Jan 12 270 @SE Louisiana W 79 - 76 49% +1  51% 6 - 11 4 - 4 C -0 B +6 D- A+ D- D -6 A- F F
 Sat, Jan 17 105 Stephen F. Austin L 79 - 84 32% -1  33% 6 - 12 4 - 5 C- -4 B+ +7 A- A C- F -11 F+ A- F
 Mon, Jan 19 196 Lamar W 89 - 76 58% +4  68% 7 - 12 5 - 5 B- +8 B+ +9 A C C- C- -2 D+ B+ C-
 Sat, Jan 24 88 @McNeese St. L 63 - 82 13% -9  2% 7 - 13 5 - 6 D -10 D- -8 C D F C- -2 B+ D+ C+
 Tue, Jan 27 266 @Nicholls St. W 80 - 62 48% +9  86% 8 - 13 6 - 6 A- +15 C- -0 F+ A D- A+ +15 A B- B
 Sat, Jan 31 280 Northwestern St. W 75 - 64 73% +4  73% 9 - 13 7 - 6 C +1 D+ -2 D- A+ D B- +4 C- A C-
 Mon, Feb 2 300 @East Texas A&M W 94 - 85 56% +11  99% 10 - 13 8 - 6 C+ +4 A- +9 A+ F C+ D -6 C- F+ F+
 Sat, Feb 7 149 UT Rio Grande Valley L 76 - 95 46% -16  1% 10 - 14 8 - 7 F -21 D -5 D A D+ F -16 D F C+
 Mon, Feb 9 198 TX A&M Corpus Christi W 84 - 78 OT 58% -1  41% 11 - 14 9 - 7 C +0 D- -7 D+ D F B+ +7 B+ C A-
 Sat, Feb 14 298 @Houston Christian W 76 - 75 55%
 Mon, Feb 16 255 @Incarnate Word L 78 - 79 47%
 Sat, Feb 21 196 @Lamar L 73 - 77 35%
 Mon, Feb 23 105 @Stephen F. Austin L 71 - 82 16%
 Sat, Feb 28 88 McNeese St. L 75 - 81 28%
 Mon, Mar 2 270 SE Louisiana W 76 - 70 71%
Totals 14 - 17 12 - 10 -3 C +1 C- B- D D+ -4 C D+ D



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings C C- C C+ C 40% 25% 34% C- C- B- C+ B- D B+ B A- D+ B- F+ C+ C+ 40% 18% 42% D+ C D- C D+ D D D+ D-
1.10 55% 39% 35% 0 0 1.00 34% 1.0 .36 19% .36 76% .28 1.14 54% 44% 33% -1 0 1.01 35% 1.0 .36 15% .36 74% .27
Nov
3		 TCU B B- D+ A+ A- 40% 30% 30% D+ B+ A+ C+ A+ F A A+ A+ A B- A- A+ A+ 44% 12% 44% D A+ B F D D D- C- D-
1.04 58% 36% 43% +3 -1 1.06 43% 1.1 .46 25% .34 79% .27 0.98 56% 29% 12% -16 +1 0.72 31% 1.4 .44 13% .40 73% .29
Nov
10		 LSU F F F F F 35% 23% 42% C- F D A C A- D+ B+ C- D C A+ F B- 46% 11% 44% F+ C+ F A+ B- F F+ C+ D-
0.80 40% 8% 25% -19 -1 0.63 24% 1.1 .26 12% .27 71% .19 1.28 62% 0% 40% +2 +2 1.09 43% 0.9 .38 10% .43 75% .32
Nov
14		 Tulane A+ F A+ A+ A+ 29% 17% 55% C- A+ B- A+ A+ F+ A+ C+ A+ A- F+ F A+ A+ 36% 13% 51% D+ A+ C+ A+ A- F F A- F
1.29 42% 57% 57% +17 0 1.36 38% 1.3 .50 21% .54 71% .39 0.96 69% 50% 9% -14 +1 0.76 21% 0.8 .15 8% .56 71% .40
Nov
18		 Pepperdine C- F A A D 51% 4% 45% A- C- B+ D+ B- F A+ C- A+ F C- F D+ F+ 40% 24% 36% C- D- D+ A- B- F F F F
1.07 40% 50% 41% -4 +3 1.00 38% 1.0 .38 23% .42 71% .30 1.22 59% 46% 35% +3 0 1.07 31% 0.7 .22 8% .41 89% .37
Nov
21		 Fresno St. C- B+ F F D 43% 16% 41% B D+ B- C+ C+ F+ A+ F A+ C- C- B- A+ B+ 44% 6% 50% F B B- F F C+ F D+ F
0.98 68% 25% 19% -7 +1 0.90 31% 1.1 .33 23% .52 65% .34 1.10 62% 33% 25% -5 +2 0.96 27% 2.0 .55 19% .45 79% .35
Nov
24		 Mississippi St. C F C- B C+ 25% 39% 36% F+ C A D- B- F C+ A+ A B A+ F A A 30% 22% 48% C+ A- C- F F B F A+ D
1.01 43% 36% 35% -4 -3 0.88 36% 0.9 .31 19% .27 94% .26 1.05 38% 67% 27% -5 -1 0.91 34% 1.3 .45 18% .46 52% .24
Nov
26		 Texas Tech F C+ F F F 40% 33% 27% C+ F F+ A+ C+ F D+ D- D B A A C- A+ 38% 25% 37% C A+ F D- F B F A+ F+
0.71 58% 25% 8% -15 -2 0.69 17% 1.5 .26 24% .24 62% .15 1.16 50% 31% 37% -3 -1 0.94 43% 1.2 .50 17% .43 60% .26
Dec
3		 Memphis C+ B F C C+ 37% 21% 42% C+ C+ B+ F D- B B C+ B F+ C- F F F 38% 19% 43% D+ F F+ A+ A+ C- B+ C B
1.00 63% 18% 32% -4 0 0.94 38% 0.5 .20 18% .37 71% .26 1.22 60% 70% 43% +13 0 1.28 43% 0.5 .23 18% .24 71% .17
Dec
6		 Houston Christian C- D+ F A D 44% 12% 44% C+ D+ D D+ D A A- F B- F C+ F+ C- D+ 46% 19% 35% D+ D+ F F F F F F F
1.15 59% 17% 41% +3 +2 1.10 29% 1.0 .29 14% .35 65% .23 1.29 55% 44% 35% 0 +1 1.04 36% 1.3 .45 8% .49 77% .38
Dec
8		 Incarnate Word B- B+ A A+ A+ 50% 24% 26% D+ A+ B F D F A+ A A+ F A+ F F+ F 22% 28% 50% A- F+ D F F C F C- F
1.22 67% 50% 64% +19 0 1.40 38% 0.8 .29 26% .51 81% .41 1.21 36% 64% 40% +7 -2 1.12 35% 1.3 .47 16% .36 71% .26
Dec
13		 Houston D F B+ D C- 20% 45% 35% F D B- A+ A+ F A+ A+ A+ F F F F F 25% 40% 36% A- F B+ A A D F C+ F
0.84 25% 39% 29% -9 -4 0.75 31% 1.6 .50 31% .49 83% .41 1.46 77% 52% 47% +18 -3 1.30 34% 0.8 .28 9% .50 77% .39
Dec
29		 UT Rio Grande Valley A F+ A+ C+ C- 44% 19% 37% B C B A+ A+ B+ C A+ A B+ D- A+ F D 31% 20% 49% B D+ D- A+ A+ A F A+ C-
1.22 50% 50% 35% -1 +1 1.02 35% 1.6 .56 14% .33 90% .30 0.99 67% 20% 42% +5 -1 1.10 33% 0.5 .15 23% .32 59% .19
Dec
31		 TX A&M Corpus Christi C- F+ B- D+ D+ 36% 34% 30% F D B- D C D- A+ F+ A F A B- C A- 60% 23% 17% D- B+ F F+ F F F+ F F
1.00 50% 40% 31% -4 -2 0.91 33% 0.9 .31 23% .55 66% .36 1.21 41% 33% 33% -12 +1 0.81 50% 1.1 .56 13% .42 76% .32
Jan
3		 Northwestern St. D A+ B+ F D- 23% 33% 44% F F B- F C- C+ F A+ D- D A+ B+ B- A+ 44% 20% 36% F A F F F D F F F
1.03 75% 47% 22% -1 -3 0.94 37% 0.9 .34 17% .24 85% .20 1.13 35% 33% 31% -13 +1 0.78 34% 1.5 .51 15% .47 81% .38
Jan
5		 East Texas A&M B- D A+ D- D+ 40% 15% 44% C- D+ A+ F F A A+ B A+ D A+ D F C+ 41% 9% 50% F+ C C- A+ B+ F+ D- F F
1.17 52% 63% 30% -1 +1 1.02 44% 0.4 .20 13% .48 73% .36 1.03 27% 40% 44% -4 +2 0.96 26% 0.5 .14 14% .30 83% .25
Jan
10		 Nicholls St. B C C- A+ C+ 40% 20% 40% C- C+ A+ F A D A+ A+ A+ F D+ D F F 35% 10% 56% D F F D- F F A- F B-
1.23 63% 38% 44% +8 0 1.18 64% 0.8 .52 24% .50 88% .44 1.44 61% 40% 45% +10 +1 1.25 40% 1.1 .46 11% .22 75% .16
Jan
12		 SE Louisiana B B F D D- 38% 27% 35% D+ D- A- A+ A+ D- A+ B+ A+ D B+ B A+ A- 27% 36% 38% A+ A- F D+ F F F C+ F
1.14 64% 20% 31% -4 -1 0.92 40% 1.5 .60 23% .73 79% .58 1.09 50% 31% 24% -10 -3 0.76 38% 1.0 .38 13% .64 67% .43
Jan
17		 Stephen F. Austin B+ C A+ C A+ 30% 37% 33% F A- B A A C- F F F F C- F F F+ 38% 28% 34% C- F+ F+ A+ A- F F D F
1.16 56% 60% 33% +7 -3 1.11 34% 1.3 .44 18% .20 55% .11 1.23 58% 50% 41% +7 -1 1.14 39% 0.6 .22 7% .47 70% .33
Jan
19		 Lamar B+ A A+ F A 61% 27% 12% B A A+ F C C- A+ B+ A+ C- A- F D+ D+ 30% 30% 41% D+ D+ F A+ B+ C- D+ D+ D
1.24 72% 55% 20% +10 +1 1.24 45% 0.7 .31 18% .69 73% .51 1.06 44% 50% 36% +1 -2 1.00 41% 0.6 .26 15% .26 75% .20
Jan
24		 McNeese St. D- D+ B- C C- 49% 13% 38% A- C F B+ D F A+ C- A+ C- C+ A+ A+ A 63% 8% 29% F B+ F A D+ C+ F F F
0.91 53% 40% 33% -3 +2 1.00 27% 1.3 .33 33% .54 72% .39 1.18 56% 25% 20% -8 +3 0.92 48% 0.8 .38 14% .50 83% .42
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Jan
27		 Nicholls St. C- D- F B F 50% 23% 27% C F+ B+ A- A D- A+ B A+ A+ A+ C+ C A 32% 11% 57% D+ A B+ D B- B B- A+ B+
1.09 54% 27% 38% -3 +1 0.98 42% 1.2 .52 25% .47 81% .38 0.85 29% 33% 33% -10 +1 0.83 21% 1.1 .23 19% .25 53% .14
Jan
31		 Northwestern St. D+ F B C+ D- 43% 25% 32% D D- B+ A+ A+ D A+ C+ A+ B- B F A- C- 40% 26% 34% C- C- C+ A+ A C- A+ D A+
1.11 47% 45% 36% -2 0 0.98 39% 1.4 .55 19% .49 74% .37 0.95 48% 57% 28% -2 -1 0.96 23% 0.8 .17 16% .16 78% .12
Feb
2		 East Texas A&M A- B- C- A+ A+ 51% 27% 22% D A+ D+ F F C+ A+ A A+ D B+ F B- C- 39% 16% 45% C- C- A- F F+ F+ F F F
1.20 62% 36% 73% +14 0 1.29 29% 0.1 .03 17% .55 78% .43 1.09 50% 63% 30% -2 +1 1.00 18% 1.7 .29 14% .55 76% .42
Feb
7		 UT Rio Grande Valley D B+ D+ F D+ 40% 31% 29% D D D- A+ A D+ A+ B A+ F C C+ F+ D 35% 13% 52% D+ D F F F C+ F F F
1.02 68% 33% 21% -3 -1 0.94 24% 1.6 .39 19% .48 76% .36 1.27 59% 33% 40% +4 +1 1.13 47% 1.3 .61 19% .46 86% .40
Feb
9		 TX A&M Corpus Christi D- D+ C- F D 56% 24% 20% C+ D+ D- C- D F A+ B A+ B+ F+ A+ A+ A- 47% 19% 34% D B+ C- C+ C A- F D F
0.96 56% 36% 22% -5 +1 0.93 23% 1.0 .23 25% .86 75% .65 0.90 64% 10% 17% -11 +1 0.81 30% 0.9 .28 22% .54 70% .38



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southland Finish

0-22 1-21 2-20 3-19 4-18 5-17 6-16 7-15 8-14 9-13 10-12 11-11 12-10 13-9 14-8 15-7 16-6 17-5 18-4 19-3 20-2 21-1 22-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 0.0 0.0 0.0 2nd
3rd 0.0 2.3 5.5 3.0 0.4 11.1 3rd
4th 0.1 4.7 15.0 9.0 1.2 0.0 30.0 4th
5th 0.0 3.1 15.8 11.1 1.4 0.0 31.4 5th
6th 0.7 9.0 8.9 1.3 0.0 19.9 6th
7th 2.0 3.9 0.7 6.6 7th
8th 0.8 0.1 0.9 8th
9th 0.1 0.1 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
Total 3.6 16.3 30.1 29.7 15.8 4.2 0.4 Total



Southland Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
22-0
21-1
20-2
19-3
18-4
17-5
16-6
15-7 0.0%
14-8 0.0%
13-9 0.0%
12-10 0.0%
11-11 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
22-0
21-1
20-2
19-3
18-4
17-5
16-6
15-7 0.4% 2.6% 2.6% 13.0 0.0 0.4
14-8 4.2% 4.3% 4.3% 14.2 0.0 0.1 0.1 4.0
13-9 15.8% 4.7% 4.7% 14.9 0.1 0.6 0.0 15.1
12-10 29.7% 2.2% 2.2% 15.4 0.4 0.3 29.1
11-11 30.1% 0.8% 0.8% 15.8 0.0 0.2 29.8
10-12 16.3% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.1 16.2
9-13 3.6% 0.8% 0.8% 16.0 0.0 3.5
8-14
7-15
6-16
5-17
4-18
3-19
2-20
1-21
0-22
Total 100% 1.9% 1.9% 0.0% 15.2 98.1 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 2.3%