Preseason Rankings
New Orleans
Southland
2025-26
Overall
Predictive Rating-8.5#312
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace72.2#68
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense-2.8#251
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense-5.7#340
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 1.3% 3.7% 1.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.3 13.8 14.7
.500 or above 6.7% 24.3% 6.3%
.500 or above in Conference 25.3% 48.0% 24.7%
Conference Champion 1.1% 3.9% 1.0%
Last Place in Conference 22.1% 9.1% 22.4%
First Four0.3% 0.4% 0.3%
First Round1.2% 3.7% 1.2%
Second Round0.0% 0.5% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.2% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: TCU (Away) - 2.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 30 - 3
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 5
Quad 20 - 30 - 8
Quad 31 - 72 - 15
Quad 47 - 89 - 23


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 03, 2025 55   @ TCU L 62-83 2%    
  Nov 10, 2025 52   @ LSU L 65-87 2%    
  Nov 14, 2025 116   @ Tulane L 67-82 9%    
  Nov 18, 2025 239   @ Pepperdine L 73-80 26%    
  Nov 21, 2025 198   @ Fresno St. L 74-83 21%    
  Nov 24, 2025 33   @ Mississippi St. L 64-89 1%    
  Nov 26, 2025 12   @ Texas Tech L 60-89 1%    
  Dec 03, 2025 53   @ Memphis L 67-89 3%    
  Dec 06, 2025 289   Houston Christian W 72-70 56%    
  Dec 08, 2025 209   Incarnate Word L 71-74 41%    
  Dec 13, 2025 1   @ Houston L 49-85 0.1%   
  Dec 29, 2025 270   @ UT Rio Grande Valley L 75-81 32%    
  Dec 31, 2025 221   @ TX A&M Corpus Christi L 69-77 25%    
  Jan 03, 2026 255   @ Northwestern St. L 67-73 30%    
  Jan 05, 2026 333   East Texas A&M W 75-70 66%    
  Jan 10, 2026 233   Nicholls St. L 74-75 45%    
  Jan 12, 2026 243   @ SE Louisiana L 70-77 27%    
  Jan 17, 2026 212   Stephen F. Austin L 71-73 42%    
  Jan 19, 2026 218   Lamar L 69-71 43%    
  Jan 24, 2026 96   @ McNeese St. L 63-80 8%    
  Jan 26, 2026 233   @ Nicholls St. L 71-78 27%    
  Jan 31, 2026 255   Northwestern St. L 69-70 49%    
  Feb 02, 2026 333   @ East Texas A&M L 72-73 46%    
  Feb 07, 2026 270   UT Rio Grande Valley W 79-78 51%    
  Feb 09, 2026 221   TX A&M Corpus Christi L 72-74 43%    
  Feb 14, 2026 289   @ Houston Christian L 69-73 36%    
  Feb 16, 2026 209   @ Incarnate Word L 68-77 24%    
  Feb 21, 2026 218   @ Lamar L 66-74 25%    
  Feb 23, 2026 212   @ Stephen F. Austin L 68-76 24%    
  Feb 28, 2026 96   McNeese St. L 66-77 19%    
  Mar 02, 2026 243   SE Louisiana L 73-74 47%    
Projected Record 9 - 22 8 - 14




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southland Finish

0-22 1-21 2-20 3-19 4-18 5-17 6-16 7-15 8-14 9-13 10-12 11-11 12-10 13-9 14-8 15-7 16-6 17-5 18-4 19-3 20-2 21-1 22-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 1.1 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.7 0.8 0.5 0.2 0.0 2.8 2nd
3rd 0.2 0.9 1.3 1.1 0.4 0.1 0.0 3.9 3rd
4th 0.0 0.3 1.4 1.9 1.0 0.3 0.0 0.0 5.0 4th
5th 0.0 0.4 1.8 2.4 1.2 0.3 0.0 6.1 5th
6th 0.0 0.5 2.3 2.9 1.5 0.2 0.0 7.4 6th
7th 0.0 0.5 2.6 3.6 1.6 0.3 0.0 8.7 7th
8th 0.1 0.9 2.9 3.9 2.0 0.3 0.0 10.1 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 1.1 3.5 4.3 1.8 0.3 0.0 11.3 9th
10th 0.1 0.5 2.0 3.9 4.3 1.9 0.3 0.0 12.9 10th
11th 0.0 0.3 1.3 3.3 4.7 3.8 1.5 0.2 0.0 15.2 11th
12th 0.5 1.7 3.0 4.1 3.3 2.2 0.7 0.1 0.0 15.5 12th
Total 0.5 1.8 3.3 5.4 7.2 9.0 9.5 10.3 9.9 9.3 8.7 6.9 5.9 4.3 3.0 2.2 1.4 0.9 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 Total



Southland Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
22-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
21-1 100.0% 0.0    0.0
20-2 100.0% 0.1    0.1 0.0
19-3 75.5% 0.2    0.1 0.0
18-4 60.4% 0.3    0.2 0.1 0.0
17-5 31.6% 0.3    0.2 0.1 0.0
16-6 11.9% 0.2    0.1 0.1 0.0
15-7 3.4% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
14-8 0.8% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
13-9 0.0%
12-10 0.0%
11-11 0.0%
Total 1.1% 1.1 0.7 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
22-0 0.0% 50.0% 50.0% 12.0 0.0 0.0
21-1 0.0% 57.0% 57.0% 12.5 0.0 0.0 0.0
20-2 0.1% 46.7% 46.7% 12.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
19-3 0.2% 32.6% 32.6% 13.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
18-4 0.5% 24.3% 24.3% 13.5 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.3
17-5 0.9% 15.9% 15.9% 13.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.7
16-6 1.4% 13.5% 13.5% 14.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 1.2
15-7 2.2% 9.3% 9.3% 15.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 2.0
14-8 3.0% 5.3% 5.3% 15.7 0.0 0.1 0.0 2.9
13-9 4.3% 4.1% 4.1% 17.4 0.0 0.1 0.1 4.1
12-10 5.9% 1.9% 1.9% 17.4 0.0 0.1 5.8
11-11 6.9% 0.9% 0.9% 17.0 0.0 0.1 6.8
10-12 8.7% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 8.6
9-13 9.3% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 9.3
8-14 9.9% 9.9
7-15 10.3% 10.3
6-16 9.5% 9.5
5-17 9.0% 9.0
4-18 7.2% 7.2
3-19 5.4% 5.4
2-20 3.3% 3.3
1-21 1.8% 1.8
0-22 0.5% 0.5
Total 100% 1.3% 1.3% 0.0% 15.3 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.4 98.7 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.4%