Austin Peay
Atlantic Sun
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
Switch to All-time Team Page
Predictive Rating +0.1 152
Expected Predictive Rating +3.2 111
Pace 71.6 100
Improvement +1.9 109

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense C #184 C- C C+ C- C
Defense C+ #137 D+ A- B- B- C-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 40% 147 54% 274 -0.9 217
2 Pt. Jumpers 21% 163 39% 148 +0.5 146
Three Pointers 39% 222 33% 235 -1.7 244
1st FG Attempt 0.98 242 -2.2 241
Second Chance 27.6% 264 1.16 36 0.32 150
Turnovers 16.4% 148
Freethrows 0.29 226 73% 168 0.21 204
Total Offense -0.9 184

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 40% 132 64% 317 -3.3 292
2 Pt. Jumpers 20% 189 39% 232 -0.1 201
Three Pointers 39% 233 35% 218 +0.4 166
1st FG Attempt 1.08 281 -3.0 284
Second Chance 30.6% 183 0.72 3 0.22 13
Turnovers 18.8% 73
Freethrows 0.30 163 68% 17 0.20 103
Total Defense +1.0 137

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Selection +0.0 195 +0.2 196
Shot Type Accuracy -2.1 249 +2.8 287
Possession Length 16.8 124 16.8 104
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.19 115 0.20 287
Improvement +5.3 #7 -3.4 #331

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 33% 33% 28%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 13.8 13.8 14.2
.500 or above 100% 100% 100%
.500 or above in Conference 100% 100% 100%
Conference Champion 90% 93% 78%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0%
First Four0% 0% 0%
First Round33% 33% 28%
Second Round1% 1% 1%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%

Next Game: Bellarmine (Home) - 83.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 15 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 20 - 30 - 4
Quad 33 - 33 - 7
Quad 418 - 121 - 8


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Sat, Nov 8 349 @Air Force W 74 - 54 82% +10  95% 1 - 0 B +10 D -5 C D F A+ +15 C+ B+ A+
 Tue, Nov 11 106 @Wyoming L 65 - 79 25% -5  2% 1 - 1 D+ -7 F -13 F C F B+ +8 C+ A A-
 Sat, Nov 15 302 @UNC Greensboro W 69 - 63 69% +3  74% 2 - 1 C +1 F -14 F C D- A+ +15 C+ A+ C+
 Tue, Nov 18 65 @Mississippi L 65 - 72 15% -7  0% 2 - 2 C+ +4 D+ -2 D- B- C+ B+ +7 A+ F B+
 Fri, Nov 21 70 @Tulsa L 75 - 84 16% +2  60% 2 - 3 C+ +2 C+ +3 B C- B+ C- -2 F+ A+ C+
 Tue, Nov 25 314 Northern Illinois W 77 - 59 87% +7  79% 3 - 3 B- +6 B- +4 A B B B- +3 B+ B+ F
 Wed, Dec 3 147 @Kent St. L 84 - 96 36% -3  11% 3 - 4 D -8 B +5 A F C+ F -13 F C C-
 Sun, Dec 7 149 @UT Rio Grande Valley L 50 - 63 37% -0  42% 3 - 5 D -9 F -22 F D- C A +13 B+ D- A+
 Fri, Dec 12 126 East Tennessee St. W 76 - 75 54% +6  98% 4 - 5 C -0 C -0 C F+ A- C +0 D A+ B-
 Thu, Jan 1 345 North Florida W 102 - 83 92% +8  86% 5 - 5 1 - 0 C+ +4 C+ +3 F A+ A C -1 D+ A+ C+
 Sat, Jan 3 308 Jacksonville W 71 - 68 87% +2  65% 6 - 5 2 - 0 D -9 F+ -8 F D- A- C -1 F D+ A+
 Thu, Jan 8 243 @Florida Gulf Coast W 82 - 71 57% +3  67% 7 - 5 3 - 0 B +9 B +7 D+ A+ B B- +3 D+ B A-
 Sat, Jan 10 333 @Stetson W 81 - 69 78% +7  92% 8 - 5 4 - 0 C+ +4 C +1 F+ C+ A+ B- +3 C+ D+ B-
 Thu, Jan 15 267 Eastern Kentucky W 74 - 72 81% +1  58% 9 - 5 5 - 0 D+ -7 C- -0 D- A C- D -6 F A+ A+
 Sat, Jan 17 187 @Lipscomb L 78 - 82 46% -2  22% 9 - 6 5 - 1 C- -3 C- -2 D C+ D+ C -1 D- A+ C
 Thu, Jan 22 243 Florida Gulf Coast W 83 - 62 77% +12  96% 10 - 6 6 - 1 B+ +13 B +7 C B+ A B+ +7 C B A+
 Fri, Jan 23 333 Stetson W 73 - 65 90% +0  34% 11 - 6 7 - 1 D+ -6 D- -7 F A+ D- C+ +1 C- A C-
 Wed, Jan 28 267 @Eastern Kentucky W 90 - 82 62% +10  97% 12 - 6 8 - 1 B- +5 B- +5 B+ C+ F C -1 A- A- F
 Sat, Jan 31 317 @West Georgia W 81 - 78 74% +6  89% 13 - 6 9 - 1 C- -4 D+ -3 F F+ B- C -0 D+ A F
 Wed, Feb 4 187 Lipscomb W 87 - 76 68% +4  60% 14 - 6 10 - 1 B- +6 B +7 A+ F B C -1 D+ B C
 Sat, Feb 7 344 North Alabama W 91 - 62 92% +17  90% 15 - 6 11 - 1 B+ +14 A+ +19 A+ B+ B+ C -2 D+ A- B-
 Wed, Feb 11 218 @Queens W 95 - 87 50% +5  83% 16 - 6 12 - 1 B +8 A- +10 C+ A C C- -2 F A+ D
 Sat, Feb 14 283 Bellarmine W 83 - 73 83%
 Thu, Feb 19 345 @North Florida W 89 - 80 81%
 Sat, Feb 21 308 @Jacksonville W 73 - 67 71%
 Wed, Feb 25 190 Central Arkansas W 78 - 73 69%
 Sat, Feb 28 283 @Bellarmine W 80 - 76 65%
Totals 20 - 7 16 - 2 +0 C -1 C- C C+ C+ +1 D+ A- B-



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings C D+ C C- D+ 40% 21% 39% C C- D+ B+ C C+ C- C C- C+ D C- C- D+ 40% 20% 39% C- D+ C A+ A- B- C+ A- B-
1.07 54% 39% 33% -2 0 0.98 28% 1.2 .32 16% .29 73% .21 1.07 64% 39% 35% +3 0 1.08 31% 0.7 .22 19% .30 68% .20
Nov
8		 Air Force D B- A+ D+ C+ 30% 23% 47% D+ C C- D- D F A+ F A+ A+ D A+ D C 32% 18% 50% B+ C+ F A+ B+ A+ F A+ B
1.03 64% 55% 32% +4 -1 1.09 28% 0.9 .25 24% .53 59% .31 0.75 64% 0% 36% -3 0 0.95 38% 0.5 .18 31% .48 33% .16
Nov
11		 Wyoming F B- F F F 46% 10% 44% B F C- B C F C C+ C+ B+ A F+ F B- 52% 12% 37% D C+ B A+ A A- D A- C-
0.85 61% 0% 18% -13 +2 0.80 24% 1.0 .24 21% .40 71% .28 1.03 44% 50% 42% -1 +2 1.04 33% 0.7 .23 21% .38 70% .26
Nov
15		 UNC Greensboro F D- F F F 39% 22% 39% C F D+ B C D- C F D+ A+ C- C B+ C+ 35% 22% 43% C- C+ A+ A+ A+ C+ D+ A- C+
0.95 52% 25% 29% -8 0 0.85 27% 1.2 .32 16% .26 63% .16 0.86 59% 36% 29% -3 -1 0.94 14% 0.6 .08 16% .39 63% .25
Nov
18		 Mississippi D+ F D+ D- F+ 29% 21% 50% C D- A- D B- C+ F A+ F B+ C- A A+ A+ 29% 35% 37% C A+ D F F B+ F+ B D
0.95 38% 33% 29% -11 -1 0.79 38% 0.9 .36 18% .12 86% .11 1.06 64% 29% 22% -8 -3 0.82 35% 1.3 .45 16% .37 71% .26
Nov
21		 Tulsa C+ D- A A+ B 49% 17% 34% B B C- C C- B+ C D C- C- F+ B F F 35% 6% 59% C+ F+ B+ A+ A+ C+ B+ F C
1.10 50% 44% 44% +3 +1 1.09 25% 1.1 .28 13% .27 69% .19 1.23 67% 33% 43% +11 +2 1.27 27% 0.8 .20 16% .28 94% .26
Nov
25		 Northern Illinois B- A+ D A A 36% 14% 50% C- A C+ A- B B B+ F C- B- F C A+ B 38% 21% 40% B+ B+ B- A B+ F B- A+ A+
1.19 75% 33% 41% +11 +1 1.25 33% 1.2 .41 15% .40 59% .24 0.91 75% 36% 10% -9 0 0.85 29% 0.7 .20 17% .32 41% .13
Dec
3		 Kent St. B D B- A+ A- 41% 9% 50% B+ A C- F F C+ D- D D- F F D F F 40% 10% 50% D- F A+ F C C- F B- F
1.14 52% 40% 46% +7 +2 1.20 30% 0.5 .16 15% .26 69% .18 1.31 68% 40% 54% +20 +1 1.44 23% 1.7 .38 18% .53 72% .38
Dec
7		 UT Rio Grande Valley F F F F F 58% 14% 28% A+ F F C+ D- C C F D+ A B- F A B 28% 26% 47% A B+ F+ C D- A+ C F+ C-
0.72 41% 14% 14% -21 +2 0.64 21% 0.9 .19 17% .33 63% .21 0.91 54% 50% 27% -3 -1 0.94 34% 1.1 .38 29% .22 82% .18
Dec
12		 East Tennessee St. C D+ A+ C+ C 39% 12% 49% C+ C C+ F F+ A- C A+ B+ C D D C D 41% 16% 43% C- D C A+ A+ B- A C- A-
1.09 55% 50% 36% +2 +1 1.08 32% 0.5 .16 16% .29 88% .25 1.07 65% 44% 33% +4 +1 1.11 26% 0.7 .18 17% .24 79% .19
Jan
1		 North Florida C+ D A F F 39% 18% 44% C- F B- A+ A+ A B A A- C B C F D+ 37% 10% 53% D D+ B+ A+ A+ C+ F D+ F
1.31 54% 55% 26% -4 0 0.95 40% 1.6 .65 8% .32 78% .25 1.07 53% 40% 41% +4 +1 1.12 20% 0.6 .11 19% .43 81% .35
Jan
3		 Jacksonville F+ C- F F F 44% 20% 35% C F D- D D- A- C- A C+ C F+ B F F 38% 20% 42% C F C D D+ A+ F A+ C-
1.03 58% 18% 26% -8 0 0.87 23% 0.9 .20 12% .36 77% .28 0.99 65% 33% 42% +7 0 1.16 29% 1.1 .32 25% .38 55% .21
Jan
8		 Florida Gulf Coast B F F B+ D 35% 10% 54% B- D+ C A+ A+ B B+ D+ B B- C F B- D 24% 31% 45% B+ D+ B- B+ B A- D A C-
1.19 47% 20% 38% -2 +1 1.00 31% 1.7 .53 14% .42 72% .31 1.03 58% 60% 32% +5 -2 1.08 28% 0.9 .25 22% .31 65% .20
Jan
10		 Stetson C F+ A F F+ 40% 31% 29% D- F+ F A+ C+ A+ A+ F A B- D B- A- B- 30% 17% 54% D+ C+ F+ B- D+ B- A+ B+ A
1.15 52% 50% 27% -2 -1 0.96 22% 1.9 .42 7% .49 56% .28 0.98 63% 33% 28% -5 0 0.93 32% 0.9 .29 20% .20 64% .12
Jan
15		 Eastern Kentucky C- D D C- F 46% 17% 38% B D- A- B A C- C B- C D F F F F 26% 28% 47% B- F D+ A+ A+ A+ B+ A+ A
1.18 55% 38% 33% -2 +1 1.00 42% 1.1 .47 16% .32 76% .25 1.15 91% 58% 50% +25 -2 1.49 35% 0.5 .17 27% .20 56% .11
Jan
17		 Lipscomb C- F B- C+ D+ 33% 33% 34% D- D D A+ C+ D+ D+ B- C- C D F B+ D 62% 7% 31% F D- C- A+ A+ C C F F+
1.04 47% 42% 35% -2 -2 0.95 26% 1.3 .34 19% .26 75% .20 1.10 65% 50% 29% +3 +3 1.15 26% 0.5 .13 16% .24 100% .24
Jan
22		 Florida Gulf Coast B D A+ C C+ 28% 24% 48% D- C C+ A B+ A F C- F B+ C- C+ C C+ 37% 27% 37% C- C F A+ B A+ A A+ A+
1.24 53% 54% 35% +3 -1 1.06 33% 1.3 .42 12% .25 73% .19 0.92 61% 38% 33% +1 -1 1.02 40% 0.6 .26 27% .18 44% .08
Jan
23		 Stetson D- B C F F+ 33% 31% 37% F F C+ A+ A+ D- C+ B- C+ C+ F+ C B+ C- 32% 23% 45% C+ C- C A+ A C- F+ C- D-
1.09 69% 40% 22% -2 -2 0.94 34% 1.7 .57 18% .29 75% .22 0.97 67% 36% 29% -1 -1 0.98 26% 0.5 .13 18% .36 70% .25
Jan
28		 Eastern Kentucky B- B C- A+ A- 37% 29% 34% D B+ F A+ C+ F A+ A+ A+ C D- A+ B+ B+ 25% 31% 44% B+ A- F A+ A- F F F F
1.22 67% 42% 50% +12 -1 1.24 23% 1.6 .36 23% .67 92% .61 1.11 64% 24% 29% -6 -2 0.85 43% 0.6 .27 12% .42 89% .37
Jan
31		 West Georgia D+ D A+ F F 44% 11% 44% C+ F F D F+ B- A+ A+ A+ C C- B C- D+ 43% 31% 26% D- D+ A+ A- A F F B F+
1.08 55% 60% 20% -8 +2 0.89 22% 0.9 .19 13% .63 83% .53 1.04 56% 33% 33% -3 -1 0.95 21% 0.9 .18 11% .37 68% .25
Feb
4		 Lipscomb B A+ D+ A+ A+ 36% 36% 27% F+ A+ F C F B D D- D- C F A+ A D+ 51% 9% 40% D- D+ B- B- B C A- F B
1.21 85% 35% 60% +19 -2 1.36 8% 1.0 .08 15% .25 67% .16 1.06 71% 20% 27% +1 +2 1.09 22% 1.0 .22 17% .17 90% .15
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Feb
7		 North Alabama A+ B- A+ A+ A+ 54% 6% 40% A A+ D A+ B+ B+ F F F C B- F A+ C- 59% 18% 24% F+ D+ F A+ A- B- A+ F A
1.47 63% 100% 55% +19 +3 1.46 30% 1.7 .52 11% .16 67% .11 1.00 50% 56% 25% -5 +2 0.96 45% 0.5 .21 19% .18 78% .14
Feb
11		 Queens A- A- A+ F C+ 52% 25% 23% C C+ C A+ A C A+ A A+ C- D- F F F 47% 16% 37% D+ F A A+ A+ D F A+ F
1.29 68% 50% 27% +6 0 1.15 33% 1.5 .50 15% .51 81% .41 1.18 67% 50% 42% +11 +1 1.25 22% 0.4 .08 14% .53 62% .33



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic Sun Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 5.7 23.2 37.6 23.8 90.3 1st
2nd 0.1 1.5 5.0 2.7 9.3 2nd
3rd 0.1 0.2 0.3 3rd
4th 0.0 0.0 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
Total 0.2 2.0 10.7 25.8 37.6 23.8 Total



Atlantic Sun Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1 100.0% 23.8    23.8
16-2 100.0% 37.6    35.5 2.1
15-3 89.6% 23.2    15.5 7.7
14-4 52.9% 5.7    1.6 3.3 0.7
13-5 8.7% 0.2    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0
12-6 5.0% 0.0    0.0
11-7
10-8
9-9
Total 90.3% 90.3 76.4 13.1 0.8 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1 23.8% 38.1% 38.1% 13.2 0.0 1.2 4.8 3.0 0.1 14.7
16-2 37.6% 33.4% 33.4% 13.9 0.2 3.0 7.6 1.8 0.0 25.0
15-3 25.8% 30.7% 30.7% 14.2 0.8 4.4 2.7 0.1 17.9
14-4 10.7% 23.9% 23.9% 14.5 0.1 1.2 1.2 0.1 8.1
13-5 2.0% 22.6% 22.6% 14.8 0.1 0.3 0.1 1.5
12-6 0.2% 0.2
11-7
10-8
9-9
8-10
7-11
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 32.6% 32.6% 0.0% 13.8 67.5 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 9.1% 100.0% 13.2 0.1 13.7 52.4 32.9 1.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 4.6%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 6.8%