Austin Peay
Atlantic Sun
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating-1.5#180
Expected Predictive Rating-0.3#177
Pace70.4#157
Improvement-1.3#276

Offense
Total Offense-2.8#244
First Shot-2.4#245
After Offensive Rebound-0.4#198
Layup/Dunks+0.0#171
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.2#298
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.8#99
Freethrows-3.0#331
Improvement+1.5#68

Defense
Total Defense+1.3#130
First Shot-3.1#278
After Offensive Rebounds+4.4#4
Layups/Dunks-4.1#308
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.7#143
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.9#251
Freethrows+2.1#64
Improvement-2.8#348
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 17.5% 20.5% 15.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.6 14.4 14.8
.500 or above 78.5% 88.8% 70.2%
.500 or above in Conference 87.7% 91.2% 84.8%
Conference Champion 23.4% 28.0% 19.5%
Last Place in Conference 0.6% 0.4% 0.7%
First Four1.2% 0.7% 1.6%
First Round17.0% 20.2% 14.4%
Second Round0.6% 0.9% 0.4%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: UT Rio Grande Valley (Away) - 44.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 20 - 30 - 4
Quad 33 - 43 - 8
Quad 415 - 418 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Sat, Nov 8 331 @Air Force W 74-54 71%     1 - 0 +12.8 -2.6 +15.0
  Tue, Nov 11 107 @Wyoming L 65-79 20%     1 - 1 -6.7 -9.5 +4.0
  Sat, Nov 15 281 @UNC Greensboro W 69-63 58%     2 - 1 +2.5 -9.5 +11.7
  Tue, Nov 18 57 @Mississippi L 65-72 9%     2 - 2 +6.0 +0.7 +5.2
  Fri, Nov 21 89 @Tulsa L 75-84 16%     2 - 3 +0.0 +6.1 -6.3
  Tue, Nov 25 333 Northern Illinois W 77-59 86%     3 - 3 +4.7 +3.2 +3.0
  Wed, Dec 3 121 @Kent St. L 84-96 24%     3 - 4 -6.2 +7.4 -13.0
  Sun, Dec 7 209 @UT Rio Grande Valley L 74-75 45%    
  Fri, Dec 12 117 East Tennessee St. L 71-73 44%    
  Sun, Dec 21 346 @UMKC W 75-67 76%    
  Thu, Jan 1 344 North Florida W 86-73 89%    
  Sat, Jan 3 291 Jacksonville W 73-64 79%    
  Thu, Jan 8 174 @Florida Gulf Coast L 74-77 38%    
  Sat, Jan 10 347 @Stetson W 75-67 75%    
  Thu, Jan 15 269 Eastern Kentucky W 79-72 74%    
  Sat, Jan 17 161 @Lipscomb L 71-75 36%    
  Thu, Jan 22 174 Florida Gulf Coast W 77-74 59%    
  Sat, Jan 24 347 Stetson W 78-64 89%    
  Wed, Jan 28 269 @Eastern Kentucky W 76-75 55%    
  Sat, Jan 31 318 @West Georgia W 74-70 65%    
  Thu, Feb 5 161 Lipscomb W 74-72 57%    
  Sat, Feb 7 200 North Alabama W 73-69 64%    
  Wed, Feb 11 196 @Queens L 76-78 42%    
  Sat, Feb 14 292 Bellarmine W 78-69 78%    
  Thu, Feb 19 344 @North Florida W 83-76 73%    
  Sat, Feb 21 291 @Jacksonville W 70-67 60%    
  Wed, Feb 25 279 Central Arkansas W 75-67 75%    
  Sat, Feb 28 292 @Bellarmine W 75-72 60%    
Projected Record 16 - 12 12 - 6




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic Sun Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.8 3.0 6.3 6.6 4.3 1.9 0.4 23.4 1st
2nd 0.0 0.8 4.2 6.6 4.7 1.5 0.1 0.0 17.9 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.7 4.1 6.2 3.4 0.7 0.0 15.1 3rd
4th 0.4 3.1 5.7 3.0 0.4 0.0 12.6 4th
5th 0.2 2.2 4.9 2.5 0.3 0.0 10.0 5th
6th 0.1 1.2 3.6 2.3 0.2 0.0 7.4 6th
7th 0.0 0.6 2.5 2.0 0.3 5.4 7th
8th 0.0 0.3 1.4 1.6 0.3 0.0 3.6 8th
9th 0.1 0.7 1.1 0.4 0.0 2.3 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.7 0.3 0.0 1.4 10th
11th 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.6 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 12th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.8 3.5 5.8 8.6 11.3 13.3 14.5 13.5 11.7 8.2 4.4 1.9 0.4 Total



Atlantic Sun Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.4    0.4
17-1 99.6% 1.9    1.8 0.0
16-2 96.7% 4.3    3.8 0.5 0.0
15-3 81.1% 6.6    4.8 1.7 0.1
14-4 54.3% 6.3    3.1 2.5 0.6 0.1 0.0
13-5 22.5% 3.0    0.7 1.3 0.8 0.2 0.0
12-6 5.4% 0.8    0.1 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.0
11-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0% 0.0    0.0
9-9 0.0%
Total 23.4% 23.4 14.8 6.3 1.9 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.4% 50.4% 50.4% 12.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2
17-1 1.9% 46.1% 46.1% 13.1 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.0 1.0
16-2 4.4% 38.8% 38.8% 13.6 0.1 0.6 0.8 0.2 2.7
15-3 8.2% 32.5% 32.5% 14.1 0.0 0.5 1.3 0.8 0.1 5.5
14-4 11.7% 27.5% 27.5% 14.4 0.0 0.3 1.3 1.4 0.1 8.5
13-5 13.5% 22.7% 22.7% 14.7 0.1 1.0 1.6 0.4 10.4
12-6 14.5% 16.5% 16.5% 15.1 0.0 0.4 1.3 0.6 12.1
11-7 13.3% 11.7% 11.7% 15.4 0.0 0.1 0.7 0.7 11.8
10-8 11.3% 9.2% 9.2% 15.7 0.0 0.3 0.7 10.2
9-9 8.6% 6.2% 6.2% 15.8 0.1 0.4 8.0
8-10 5.8% 3.5% 3.5% 16.0 0.0 0.2 5.6
7-11 3.5% 2.4% 2.4% 16.0 0.1 3.4
6-12 1.8% 1.5% 1.5% 16.0 0.0 1.8
5-13 0.8% 1.7% 1.7% 16.0 0.0 0.8
4-14 0.3% 0.3
3-15 0.1% 0.1
2-16 0.0% 0.0
1-17 0.0% 0.0
0-18
Total 100% 17.5% 17.5% 0.0% 14.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 2.1 5.2 6.4 3.4 82.5 0.0%