California
Atlantic Coast
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
Switch to All-time Team Page
Predictive Rating +7.7 73
Expected Predictive Rating +10.9 54
Pace 68.5 187
Improvement -3.3 314

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense B- #79 B C- B B+ D+
Defense B- #73 B+ B C- B- C-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 34% 309 62% 87 -1.5 238
2 Pt. Jumpers 23% 121 39% 138 +1.3 105
Three Pointers 43% 136 38% 23 +4.1 54
1st FG Attempt 1.10 71 +3.9 71
Second Chance 27.6% 263 1.08 97 0.30 207
Turnovers 14.7% 49
Freethrows 0.34 73 78% 15 0.27 32
Total Offense +4.1 79

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 38% 201 54% 73 +1.9 111
2 Pt. Jumpers 19% 232 38% 184 +0.7 134
Three Pointers 43% 104 28% 10 +2.4 83
1st FG Attempt 0.92 43 +5.0 43
Second Chance 27.7% 74 0.94 59 0.26 57
Turnovers 16.3% 211
Freethrows 0.29 155 65% 3 0.19 67
Total Defense +3.7 73

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Selection -0.7 276 +0.2 205
Shot Type Accuracy +4.5 53 -5.1 31
Possession Length 16.6 104 17.9 280
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.17 176 0.14 74
Improvement -1.6 #281 -1.7 #286

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 10% 12% 6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 9% 12% 6%
Average Seed 10.7 10.6 10.8
.500 or above 100% 100% 100%
.500 or above in Conference 43% 56% 21%
Conference Champion 0% 0% 0%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0%
First Four7% 8% 4%
First Round5% 7% 3%
Second Round1% 2% 1%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%

Next Game: Boston College (Away) - 60.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 31 - 3
Quad 1b3 - 44 - 7
Quad 22 - 46 - 11
Quad 36 - 112 - 12
Quad 48 - 020 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 322 Cal St. Bakersfield W 87 - 60 96% +14  99% 1 - 0 B+ +14 C+ +2 A C D+ A +11 B A+ A-
 Thu, Nov 6 150 Wright St. W 77 - 67 83% +6  88% 2 - 0 B- +8 C- -0 C F B+ A- +8 A+ C+ F
 Mon, Nov 10 210 Cal St. Fullerton W 93 - 65 89% +16  98% 3 - 0 A +22 B+ +7 D+ C A+ A +12 A- B+ B
 Thu, Nov 13 101 @Kansas St. L 96 - 99 49% -14  4% 3 - 1 B- +5 A +13 A+ B D- D- -8 F F A
 Tue, Nov 18 272 Presbyterian W 67 - 57 93% +3  77% 4 - 1 C +1 C+ +2 B C F+ C+ +1 A+ F C-
 Fri, Nov 21 254 Sacramento St. W 91 - 67 93% +18  94% 5 - 1 A- +16 B- +4 A+ F+ C A +10 A+ C C-
 Tue, Nov 25 34 UCLA W 80 - 72 26% +2  52% 6 - 1 A +22 A- +10 A F A+ A +12 A+ C+ B-
 Tue, Dec 2 110 Utah W 79 - 72 74% +1  64% 7 - 1 B- +8 B- +4 B C+ C+ B- +4 B+ C+ C-
 Sat, Dec 6 115 Pacific W 67 - 61 77% +9  99% 8 - 1 B- +6 C+ +2 B C+ C+ B +5 A C+ C
 Sat, Dec 13 280 Northwestern St. W 79 - 70 94% +1  50% 9 - 1 C -1 C+ +3 D+ A- C- C- -3 D- C B+
 Fri, Dec 19 352 Morgan St. W 97 - 50 98% +22  96% 10 - 1 A+ +30 A +13 A A B A+ +18 A B B-
 Sun, Dec 21 200 Columbia W 74 - 56 89% +11  96% 11 - 1 B+ +12 C- -2 C D- A A+ +15 B- A+ C+
 Tue, Dec 30 11 Louisville L 70 - 90 20% -16  0% 11 - 2 0 - 1 C- -3 C -0 D C- A+ C- -3 C+ C- C-
 Fri, Jan 2 82 Notre Dame W 72 - 71 65% -2  34% 12 - 2 1 - 1 C+ +5 B +6 B- D+ A+ C -1 B+ A F
 Wed, Jan 7 23 @Virginia L 60 - 84 14% -12  3% 12 - 3 1 - 2 C- -5 D -4 D- F A- C -1 C C- C+
 Sat, Jan 10 55 @Virginia Tech L 75 - 78 30% +2  61% 12 - 4 1 - 3 B +10 A- +10 B+ A C- C +0 B B- C
 Wed, Jan 14 3 Duke L 56 - 71 12% -3  37% 12 - 5 1 - 4 B- +6 D+ -4 C- F+ B+ A- +8 A+ B C-
 Sat, Jan 17 26 North Carolina W 84 - 78 33% +11  98% 13 - 5 2 - 4 A +18 A +12 A A+ F+ B+ +6 B A B+
 Sat, Jan 24 74 @Stanford W 78 - 66 39% +1  57% 14 - 5 3 - 4 A +23 B +6 B- C- A A+ +16 A+ A+ F
 Wed, Jan 28 93 @Florida St. L 61 - 63 48% -5  14% 14 - 6 3 - 5 B- +6 F+ -8 F C- A- A+ +14 B+ A+ F+
 Sat, Jan 31 41 @Miami (FL) W 86 - 85 22% -2  36% 15 - 6 4 - 5 A- +17 A+ +22 A- C A+ D+ -5 B- F F
 Wed, Feb 4 131 Georgia Tech W 90 - 85 80% +6  87% 16 - 6 5 - 5 C+ +4 B +7 A+ F D D+ -4 C+ C- F
 Sat, Feb 7 38 Clemson L 55 - 77 37% -13  17% 16 - 7 5 - 6 D -11 F+ -8 C+ F D- D+ -5 F+ C- C+
 Wed, Feb 11 67 @Syracuse L 100 - 107 2OT 37% +0  48% 16 - 8 5 - 7 C+ +4 B +7 B- A+ B- C -1 D+ B- D
 Sat, Feb 14 129 @Boston College W 70 - 67 61%
 Sat, Feb 21 74 Stanford W 76 - 73 61%
 Wed, Feb 25 37 SMU L 78 - 81 37%
 Sat, Feb 28 99 Pittsburgh W 73 - 68 69%
 Wed, Mar 4 131 @Georgia Tech W 78 - 75 60%
 Sat, Mar 7 63 @Wake Forest L 74 - 78 36%
Totals 19 - 11 8 - 10 +8 B- +4 B C- B B- +4 B+ B C-



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings B- B- C+ B+ B 34% 23% 43% D+ B D+ B- C- B B B+ B+ B- B- C A- B+ 38% 19% 43% C- B+ B- B B C- C+ A+ B-
1.14 62% 39% 38% +4 -1 1.10 28% 1.1 .30 15% .34 78% .27 1.03 54% 38% 28% -5 0 0.92 28% 0.9 .26 16% .29 65% .22
Nov
3		 Cal St. Bakersfield C+ A+ A+ F A 47% 14% 39% B A B- C- C D+ B+ C B+ A A B- B+ B+ 51% 33% 16% D- B C+ A+ A+ A- F A+ F
1.19 75% 86% 25% +9 +2 1.24 40% 1.0 .40 19% .42 72% .30 0.82 43% 33% 29% -10 -1 0.80 31% 0.5 .14 23% .54 63% .34
Nov
6		 Wright St. C- A A+ F C+ 36% 23% 41% D+ C C- F F B+ A+ A+ A+ A- A+ F A+ A+ 31% 17% 52% C+ A+ A- F C+ F B- A+ A
1.11 69% 60% 22% +2 0 1.05 29% 0.5 .15 14% .52 84% .44 0.96 35% 67% 21% -12 0 0.78 25% 1.4 .34 11% .29 56% .16
Nov
10		 Cal St. Fullerton B+ D- F B+ D 36% 15% 49% C D+ C- C+ C A+ A+ A+ A+ A D+ C A+ A 38% 23% 39% B- A- C- A+ B+ B A+ A+ A+
1.20 52% 22% 38% -1 0 1.00 29% 1.1 .31 10% .43 87% .38 0.84 61% 36% 21% -7 0 0.87 27% 0.6 .16 18% .17 45% .08
Nov
13		 Kansas St. A B C+ A+ A+ 33% 19% 48% C A+ C- A+ B D- D- A D+ D- F+ B- F F 62% 5% 33% F F A F F A F B+ D-
1.23 61% 40% 54% +16 0 1.33 32% 1.4 .46 22% .23 79% .18 1.26 71% 33% 50% +15 +4 1.40 26% 2.0 .52 22% .34 67% .23
Nov
18		 Presbyterian C+ B A+ C+ B+ 43% 25% 32% D B A- F+ C F+ B F C- C+ A+ C- B A+ 32% 30% 39% B+ A+ F D+ F C- A C+ A-
1.16 63% 55% 36% +7 0 1.16 38% 0.8 .31 19% .34 56% .19 0.99 29% 38% 29% -12 -2 0.75 46% 1.1 .49 19% .26 67% .17
Nov
21		 Sacramento St. B- A- A+ A- A+ 32% 11% 58% C- A+ D F F+ C C F F A A+ A+ A A+ 35% 24% 41% D+ A+ F A+ C C- F D+ F
1.21 67% 83% 39% +12 +1 1.28 29% 0.9 .26 16% .30 53% .16 0.89 26% 23% 27% -19 -1 0.63 36% 0.9 .32 15% .47 80% .37
Nov
25		 UCLA A- F D A+ A+ 38% 23% 38% C+ A F F F A+ B+ B A- A B A- A A+ 33% 29% 38% C A+ C B C+ B- D A+ B+
1.13 45% 33% 55% +6 0 1.13 21% 0.7 .15 11% .35 77% .27 1.02 56% 31% 29% -6 -2 0.87 33% 1.1 .36 16% .39 57% .22
Dec
2		 Utah B- C A B- B+ 38% 28% 34% D- B D+ A C+ C+ A+ A+ A+ B- C B- B+ A- 41% 11% 48% D+ B+ B C- C+ C- C- C C-
1.16 58% 50% 35% +4 -1 1.08 27% 1.3 .33 15% .41 92% .38 1.06 59% 33% 31% -2 +1 1.00 26% 1.0 .26 15% .33 74% .24
Dec
6		 Pacific C+ B C- A+ A- 25% 36% 39% F+ B B- C- C+ C+ A+ F C+ B A+ A+ F+ A+ 45% 23% 32% C A F A+ C+ C A- D B+
1.10 64% 38% 41% +5 -3 1.07 27% 1.0 .27 15% .44 57% .25 1.00 43% 27% 40% -6 0 0.89 45% 0.7 .33 20% .20 80% .16
Dec
13		 Northwestern St. C+ D+ F A+ D+ 38% 15% 48% C D+ C- A+ A- C- B- A A- C- D+ A- F F 26% 28% 46% B D- A F C B+ B- F C-
1.18 56% 0% 43% 0 +1 1.04 31% 1.6 .50 18% .38 81% .31 1.04 58% 31% 43% +4 -2 1.07 17% 1.6 .28 21% .28 87% .25
Dec
19		 Morgan St. A B F A+ A 50% 14% 36% C A F A+ A B F+ A+ B+ A+ D+ D- A+ A 35% 29% 35% C- A A+ F B B- C A+ A-
1.40 68% 29% 50% +12 +2 1.30 22% 2.6 .57 13% .38 96% .36 0.72 59% 43% 6% -13 -1 0.73 16% 1.2 .19 20% .34 58% .20
Dec
21		 Columbia C- A+ F C+ B- 33% 29% 38% F+ C D- D D- A A A- A+ A+ B- F A+ A- 64% 6% 30% F B- A+ A+ A+ C+ B A+ A+
1.10 71% 27% 35% +1 -1 1.02 24% 0.9 .21 9% .39 79% .31 0.84 53% 67% 27% -5 +4 1.00 24% 0.1 .03 22% .23 50% .12
Dec
30		 Louisville C F D- C- F+ 31% 21% 48% B- D D- A- C- A+ A+ A A+ C- B+ D- F B- 43% 3% 53% D C+ D B- C- C- A F A-
0.98 31% 27% 32% -12 -1 0.77 19% 1.1 .21 11% .43 78% .33 1.26 56% 50% 42% +6 +3 1.19 39% 0.9 .37 14% .23 86% .20
Jan
2		 Notre Dame B A+ A+ F B- 20% 18% 62% C- B- C- D D+ A+ F C+ F+ C A+ F C- A- 25% 17% 58% C B+ C+ A+ A F F A F
1.14 73% 60% 26% 0 -1 1.00 22% 0.9 .20 5% .20 75% .15 1.13 42% 50% 36% 0 0 1.00 32% 0.6 .19 11% .46 62% .29
Jan
7		 Virginia D A- D+ F D 27% 37% 37% F+ D- F F F A- A A+ A+ C D F A C 39% 12% 49% C C C+ D C- C+ F A- D-
0.88 62% 33% 17% -10 -3 0.76 16% 0.7 .11 13% .37 86% .32 1.23 65% 83% 28% +4 +1 1.12 39% 1.2 .48 16% .40 65% .26
Jan
10		 Virginia Tech A- B C+ C B+ 40% 21% 40% C+ B+ A B- A C- A+ A+ A+ C D- A+ A+ A- 44% 11% 44% F B D A B- C F F F
1.12 63% 40% 32% +1 0 1.04 41% 1.1 .45 19% .39 90% .35 1.17 70% 20% 25% -3 +2 1.00 37% 0.9 .33 15% .55 87% .47
Jan
14		 Duke D+ F A+ F C 24% 33% 43% D- C- D F F+ B+ A+ A- A+ A- C F A+ A+ 39% 4% 57% C A+ C A- B C- B A+ A+
0.87 33% 56% 24% -7 -3 0.84 18% 0.3 .06 17% .32 76% .24 1.10 63% 100% 21% -6 +2 0.94 40% 1.1 .43 15% .31 47% .15
Jan
17		 North Carolina A D- B- A+ A 25% 31% 43% D+ A C A+ A+ F+ A- B+ A B+ F A C+ B 31% 20% 49% B+ B A- B+ A B+ F A D-
1.19 46% 38% 45% +4 -2 1.06 25% 2.3 .56 18% .28 75% .21 1.11 73% 30% 33% +3 -1 1.06 28% 1.0 .28 16% .47 61% .29
Jan
24		 Stanford B C+ F A+ B 24% 29% 47% D- B- C- C C- A A B+ A A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ 44% 6% 50% D+ A+ B- A+ A+ F F D F
1.09 58% 21% 43% +2 -2 1.02 25% 1.1 .28 14% .41 80% .33 0.93 39% 0% 23% -19 +2 0.69 33% 0.5 .17 10% .48 77% .37
Jan
28		 Florida St. F+ D- F D+ F+ 19% 31% 50% F F F A+ C- A- C- C+ C- A+ D- C- A+ B- 27% 29% 44% A+ B+ A- A+ A+ F+ D A+ B
0.90 50% 25% 31% -8 -3 0.81 21% 1.3 .26 16% .26 73% .19 0.93 67% 38% 25% -4 -2 0.91 27% 0.3 .07 10% .34 52% .18
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Jan
31		 Miami (FL) A+ A+ F+ A A 26% 30% 44% D- A- C- B- C A+ A+ A A+ D+ F B A C+ 44% 31% 24% A+ B- A+ F F F F C- F
1.28 77% 27% 41% +6 -2 1.10 22% 1.1 .25 10% .53 75% .40 1.26 75% 36% 27% +4 -1 1.09 25% 2.1 .54 10% .55 70% .38
Feb
4		 Georgia Tech B C B- A+ A+ 23% 32% 45% F+ A+ D- F F D A+ C+ A+ D+ C+ F A- B+ 48% 10% 43% F C+ A F C- F A+ A+ A+
1.17 55% 40% 57% +15 -3 1.28 22% 0.5 .11 18% .62 72% .44 1.10 57% 50% 30% -2 +2 1.02 24% 1.6 .38 10% .20 50% .10
Feb
7		 Clemson F+ C- C C+ B- 37% 37% 26% D- C+ F+ F F D- C+ A+ B+ D+ D F F F 33% 15% 52% B F+ A+ F C- C+ C A+ A-
0.85 53% 35% 33% -3 -2 0.91 14% 0.0 .00 22% .30 87% .26 1.19 67% 57% 42% +12 0 1.26 15% 2.3 .33 15% .35 58% .20
Feb
11		 Syracuse B C D+ B- B 36% 24% 39% D+ B- C+ A+ A+ B- B B- B C F D A C- 51% 15% 34% D- D+ C B B- D F A- F
1.11 54% 31% 35% -3 -1 0.95 32% 1.6 .50 18% .34 76% .26 1.18 74% 44% 29% +6 +2 1.18 33% 0.9 .30 13% .54 60% .32



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic Coast Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 0.0 0.0 4th
5th 0.2 0.2 5th
6th 0.5 1.3 1.8 6th
7th 0.4 3.7 0.9 4.9 7th
8th 0.3 5.7 6.5 0.2 12.7 8th
9th 0.2 6.9 15.1 2.8 24.9 9th
10th 0.0 3.7 16.6 5.1 0.1 25.5 10th
11th 0.5 8.2 5.7 0.2 14.7 11th
12th 0.0 2.3 5.4 0.7 8.4 12th
13th 0.2 2.9 1.2 0.0 4.3 13th
14th 0.5 1.5 0.1 2.0 14th
15th 0.4 0.1 0.5 15th
16th 0.1 0.1 16th
17th 0.0 0.0 17th
18th 18th
Total 1.2 7.3 18.7 30.2 26.5 13.5 2.6 Total



Atlantic Coast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7 2.6% 48.5% 48.5% 10.1 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.5 1.4 48.5%
10-8 13.5% 25.2% 0.3% 24.9% 10.5 0.1 0.3 0.9 2.2 0.0 10.1 25.0%
9-9 26.5% 13.3% 0.0% 13.3% 10.9 0.1 0.4 2.9 0.1 22.9 13.3%
8-10 30.2% 4.1% 0.1% 4.0% 11.0 0.1 1.1 0.1 29.0 4.0%
7-11 18.7% 0.4% 0.1% 0.4% 11.1 0.1 0.0 18.7 0.4%
6-12 7.3% 7.3
5-13 1.2% 1.2
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 9.5% 0.1% 9.4% 10.7 90.5 9.4%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.2% 68.2% 9.9 9.1 9.1 31.8 18.2
Lose Out 0.9%