California
Atlantic Coast
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating+8.0#69
Expected Predictive Rating+13.7#38
Pace70.3#165
Improvement-0.1#201

Offense
Total Offense+5.0#63
First Shot+6.9#28
After Offensive Rebound-1.9#291
Layup/Dunks-0.7#202
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.0#117
3 Pt Jumpshots+6.3#24
Freethrows+0.3#169
Improvement+0.0#173

Defense
Total Defense+3.0#88
First Shot+4.2#57
After Offensive Rebounds-1.2#266
Layups/Dunks+0.4#160
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.3#102
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.0#219
Freethrows+3.5#18
Improvement-0.2#207
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.2% 0.3% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 1.7% 2.0% 0.5%
NCAA Tourney Bid 21.9% 24.0% 12.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 21.5% 23.5% 12.5%
Average Seed 9.2 9.2 9.5
.500 or above 90.9% 93.7% 78.6%
.500 or above in Conference 42.9% 45.1% 32.9%
Conference Champion 0.7% 0.8% 0.4%
Last Place in Conference 4.7% 4.1% 7.4%
First Four6.4% 6.9% 3.9%
First Round18.3% 20.0% 10.6%
Second Round7.5% 8.3% 4.0%
Sweet Sixteen1.6% 1.9% 0.5%
Elite Eight0.5% 0.6% 0.2%
Final Four0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Pacific (Home) - 81.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 31 - 3
Quad 1b2 - 43 - 7
Quad 24 - 47 - 11
Quad 35 - 112 - 12
Quad 47 - 019 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 280 Cal St. Bakersfield W 87-60 94%     1 - 0 +17.5 +6.6 +9.7
  Thu, Nov 6 160 Wright St. W 77-67 85%     2 - 0 +6.7 +3.9 +2.9
  Mon, Nov 10 303 Cal St. Fullerton W 93-65 95%     3 - 0 +17.1 +5.8 +8.7
  Thu, Nov 13 71 @Kansas St. L 96-99 39%     3 - 1 +7.8 +16.5 -8.4
  Tue, Nov 18 257 Presbyterian W 67-57 93%     4 - 1 +1.6 +6.6 -2.9
  Fri, Nov 21 274 Sacramento St. W 91-67 94%     5 - 1 +14.8 +8.2 +5.0
  Tue, Nov 25 31 UCLA W 80-72 30%     6 - 1 +21.6 +12.8 +8.7
  Tue, Dec 2 117 Utah W 79-72 77%     7 - 1 +7.2 +7.4 +0.0
  Sat, Dec 6 139 Pacific W 78-69 82%    
  Sat, Dec 13 302 Northwestern St. W 83-64 96%    
  Fri, Dec 19 359 Morgan St. W 90-65 99%    
  Sun, Dec 21 140 Columbia W 81-71 81%    
  Tue, Dec 30 14 Louisville L 77-84 26%    
  Fri, Jan 2 56 Notre Dame W 73-72 56%    
  Wed, Jan 7 26 @Virginia L 70-79 20%    
  Sat, Jan 10 70 @Virginia Tech L 76-79 40%    
  Wed, Jan 14 3 Duke L 69-80 16%    
  Sat, Jan 17 21 North Carolina L 76-80 36%    
  Sat, Jan 24 84 @Stanford L 76-78 44%    
  Wed, Jan 28 100 @Florida St. W 81-80 50%    
  Sat, Jan 31 34 @Miami (FL) L 72-80 24%    
  Wed, Feb 4 134 Georgia Tech W 79-70 80%    
  Sat, Feb 7 33 Clemson L 72-74 42%    
  Wed, Feb 11 61 @Syracuse L 72-76 36%    
  Sat, Feb 14 132 @Boston College W 72-69 61%    
  Sat, Feb 21 84 Stanford W 79-75 65%    
  Wed, Feb 25 40 SMU L 78-79 47%    
  Sat, Feb 28 92 Pittsburgh W 75-69 69%    
  Wed, Mar 4 134 @Georgia Tech W 76-73 62%    
  Sat, Mar 7 53 @Wake Forest L 75-80 32%    
Projected Record 19 - 11 8 - 10




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic Coast Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.7 1st
2nd 0.0 0.3 0.8 0.7 0.3 0.0 2.0 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.1 1.4 0.4 0.0 2.9 3rd
4th 0.0 1.0 2.0 0.7 0.1 3.8 4th
5th 0.0 0.7 2.7 1.6 0.1 5.2 5th
6th 0.2 2.2 2.7 0.5 0.0 5.5 6th
7th 0.0 1.3 3.9 1.3 0.1 6.6 7th
8th 0.0 0.5 3.5 3.0 0.3 0.0 7.3 8th
9th 0.1 2.2 5.0 1.1 0.0 8.3 9th
10th 0.0 0.8 4.8 2.5 0.1 8.2 10th
11th 0.2 3.4 4.6 0.7 8.9 11th
12th 0.0 1.5 4.9 1.9 0.1 8.3 12th
13th 0.0 0.5 3.8 3.3 0.3 8.1 13th
14th 0.2 2.1 3.8 1.0 0.0 7.2 14th
15th 0.0 0.1 1.2 3.2 1.5 0.1 6.0 15th
16th 0.0 0.7 2.3 1.9 0.3 0.0 5.2 16th
17th 0.0 0.2 1.4 1.4 0.4 0.0 3.4 17th
18th 0.1 0.3 0.7 0.8 0.3 0.0 2.3 18th
Total 0.1 0.4 1.0 2.9 5.4 8.3 11.1 13.7 14.3 13.2 11.0 8.1 5.5 3.1 1.4 0.6 0.1 0.0 Total



Atlantic Coast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1 100.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
16-2 78.4% 0.1    0.1 0.0
15-3 49.7% 0.3    0.1 0.1 0.0
14-4 17.5% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
13-5 1.6% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-6 0.1% 0.0    0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.7% 0.7 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
16-2 0.1% 100.0% 100.0% 5.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
15-3 0.6% 99.4% 12.3% 87.1% 5.5 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.3%
14-4 1.4% 99.0% 7.1% 91.9% 6.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 98.9%
13-5 3.1% 92.3% 3.6% 88.7% 7.9 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 0.8 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.2 92.0%
12-6 5.5% 81.4% 2.1% 79.3% 8.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.9 1.4 1.1 0.5 0.0 1.0 81.0%
11-7 8.1% 62.0% 1.0% 61.0% 9.7 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.4 1.9 1.2 0.0 3.1 61.6%
10-8 11.0% 39.0% 0.3% 38.7% 10.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.8 1.8 0.0 6.7 38.9%
9-9 13.2% 17.7% 0.0% 17.7% 10.5 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.4 0.0 10.8 17.7%
8-10 14.3% 5.4% 0.1% 5.3% 10.9 0.1 0.6 0.1 13.5 5.3%
7-11 13.7% 0.9% 0.1% 0.8% 10.9 0.0 0.1 0.0 13.6 0.8%
6-12 11.1% 0.1% 0.1% 11.0 0.0 11.1 0.1%
5-13 8.3% 8.3
4-14 5.4% 5.4
3-15 2.9% 2.9
2-16 1.0% 1.0
1-17 0.4% 0.4
0-18 0.1% 0.1
Total 100% 21.9% 0.5% 21.4% 9.2 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.0 1.7 2.6 4.3 5.9 5.5 0.2 78.1 21.5%