Virginia
Atlantic Coast
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating+14.9#23
Expected Predictive Rating+16.5#24
Pace65.4#289
Improvement+1.8#60

Offense
Total Offense+10.1#13
First Shot+5.4#48
After Offensive Rebound+4.7#7
Layup/Dunks-0.1#173
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.2#295
3 Pt Jumpshots+6.6#22
Freethrows+1.1#116
Improvement+0.4#147

Defense
Total Defense+4.8#51
First Shot+6.5#24
After Offensive Rebounds-1.6#294
Layups/Dunks+2.4#93
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.4#239
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.8#79
Freethrows+1.7#79
Improvement+1.4#73
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
#1 Seed 1.0% 1.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 3.7% 3.7% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 19.6% 19.6% 4.1%
Top 6 Seed 45.4% 45.4% 20.3%
NCAA Tourney Bid 88.6% 88.7% 66.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 87.6% 87.7% 64.3%
Average Seed 6.5 6.5 7.6
.500 or above 99.7% 99.7% 94.6%
.500 or above in Conference 90.6% 90.7% 75.7%
Conference Champion 9.5% 9.6% 2.7%
Last Place in Conference 0.1% 0.1% 1.4%
First Four4.1% 4.1% 4.1%
First Round86.7% 86.7% 63.5%
Second Round59.3% 59.3% 37.8%
Sweet Sixteen24.8% 24.8% 17.6%
Elite Eight9.6% 9.6% 10.8%
Final Four3.6% 3.6% 1.4%
Championship Game1.2% 1.2% 0.0%
National Champion0.4% 0.4% 0.0%

Next Game: Maryland Eastern Shore (Home) - 99.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 7 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a2 - 32 - 3
Quad 1b4 - 25 - 6
Quad 27 - 213 - 8
Quad 35 - 018 - 9
Quad 46 - 024 - 9


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 336 Rider W 87-53 99%     1 - 0 +20.4 +17.0 +6.6
  Fri, Nov 7 350 NC Central W 81-62 99%     2 - 0 +3.5 +12.1 -6.4
  Tue, Nov 11 208 Hampton W 91-53 96%     3 - 0 +31.8 +18.9 +14.5
  Sat, Nov 15 172 Marshall W 104-78 95%     4 - 0 +21.9 +21.1 -1.1
  Fri, Nov 21 61 Northwestern W 83-78 71%     5 - 0 +14.0 +11.6 +2.3
  Sun, Nov 23 55 Butler L 73-80 68%     5 - 1 +3.1 +5.0 -2.0
  Fri, Nov 28 196 Queens W 94-69 96%     6 - 1 +19.7 +22.5 -0.6
  Wed, Dec 3 46 @Texas W 88-69 54%     7 - 1 +32.9 +25.8 +8.5
  Sat, Dec 6 70 Dayton W 86-73 74%     8 - 1 +21.1 +13.8 +6.6
  Tue, Dec 9 345 Maryland Eastern Shore W 81-51 99.8%   
  Sat, Dec 20 93 Maryland W 81-69 88%    
  Mon, Dec 22 242 American W 86-64 98%    
  Wed, Dec 31 67 @Virginia Tech W 77-74 63%    
  Sat, Jan 3 36 @North Carolina St. L 79-80 47%    
  Wed, Jan 7 76 California W 79-69 83%    
  Sat, Jan 10 85 Stanford W 82-71 85%    
  Tue, Jan 13 13 @Louisville L 76-82 28%    
  Sat, Jan 17 40 @SMU L 77-78 50%    
  Sat, Jan 24 22 North Carolina W 78-75 60%    
  Tue, Jan 27 58 @Notre Dame W 72-70 59%    
  Sat, Jan 31 145 @Boston College W 75-64 84%    
  Tue, Feb 3 95 Pittsburgh W 77-64 87%    
  Sat, Feb 7 60 Syracuse W 77-68 78%    
  Tue, Feb 10 101 @Florida St. W 82-75 74%    
  Sat, Feb 14 24 Ohio St. W 77-76 50%    
  Wed, Feb 18 135 @Georgia Tech W 78-68 82%    
  Sat, Feb 21 32 Miami (FL) W 77-73 66%    
  Tue, Feb 24 36 North Carolina St. W 82-77 67%    
  Sat, Feb 28 3 @Duke L 67-78 17%    
  Tue, Mar 3 50 Wake Forest W 80-73 74%    
  Sat, Mar 7 67 Virginia Tech W 80-71 80%    
Projected Record 23 - 8 12 - 6




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic Coast Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.3 1.6 3.2 3.0 1.2 0.2 9.5 1st
2nd 0.0 0.5 3.5 6.7 4.1 1.0 0.1 16.0 2nd
3rd 0.3 3.4 6.9 3.7 0.5 0.0 14.8 3rd
4th 0.1 2.1 6.4 4.0 0.6 0.0 13.3 4th
5th 0.0 0.8 4.9 4.3 0.7 0.0 10.7 5th
6th 0.0 0.2 2.7 4.6 1.2 0.0 8.7 6th
7th 0.0 0.9 4.0 2.0 0.1 7.0 7th
8th 0.2 2.1 2.9 0.4 5.6 8th
9th 0.0 0.8 2.6 0.8 0.0 4.3 9th
10th 0.0 0.2 1.7 1.3 0.1 3.3 10th
11th 0.0 0.6 1.4 0.3 0.0 2.4 11th
12th 0.2 0.9 0.7 0.0 1.8 12th
13th 0.0 0.4 0.7 0.1 1.2 13th
14th 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.2 0.8 14th
15th 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.4 15th
16th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 16th
17th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 17th
18th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 18th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.2 2.6 4.9 7.6 11.3 14.4 15.9 15.5 12.6 7.9 4.0 1.3 0.2 Total



Atlantic Coast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.2    0.2
17-1 94.8% 1.2    1.0 0.2 0.0
16-2 74.5% 3.0    1.8 1.1 0.1 0.0
15-3 41.0% 3.2    1.2 1.5 0.5 0.1 0.0
14-4 12.9% 1.6    0.3 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0
13-5 2.0% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
12-6 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 9.5% 9.5 4.5 3.4 1.2 0.4 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.2% 100.0% 35.8% 64.2% 1.6 0.1 0.1 0.0 100.0%
17-1 1.3% 100.0% 28.6% 71.4% 2.3 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
16-2 4.0% 100.0% 22.6% 77.4% 3.0 0.3 0.9 1.3 1.0 0.3 0.0 0.0 100.0%
15-3 7.9% 100.0% 17.7% 82.3% 3.9 0.2 0.8 2.0 2.7 1.5 0.6 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
14-4 12.6% 99.8% 13.7% 86.1% 4.8 0.0 0.4 1.6 3.4 3.7 2.4 0.9 0.2 0.0 0.0 99.8%
13-5 15.5% 99.7% 9.8% 89.8% 5.8 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.9 3.9 4.3 3.0 1.3 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.1 99.6%
12-6 15.9% 98.4% 6.5% 91.8% 6.8 0.0 0.1 0.7 2.1 3.8 4.3 2.7 1.4 0.5 0.1 0.3 98.3%
11-7 14.4% 94.5% 4.1% 90.4% 7.8 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.8 2.9 3.4 2.9 1.6 0.3 0.8 94.2%
10-8 11.3% 86.1% 2.2% 83.9% 8.8 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.1 2.2 2.9 2.2 0.8 1.6 85.8%
9-9 7.6% 71.0% 1.7% 69.3% 9.5 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.8 1.3 1.9 1.0 0.0 2.2 70.5%
8-10 4.9% 47.0% 0.8% 46.2% 10.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.1 0.1 2.6 46.6%
7-11 2.6% 19.5% 0.1% 19.4% 10.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.0 2.1 19.4%
6-12 1.2% 4.8% 0.6% 4.2% 10.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.1 4.2%
5-13 0.5% 0.7% 0.7% 11.0 0.0 0.5 0.7%
4-14 0.2% 0.2
3-15 0.1% 0.1
2-16 0.0% 0.0
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 88.6% 8.0% 80.6% 6.5 1.0 2.7 6.1 9.8 12.3 13.5 12.6 10.8 9.1 7.2 3.5 0.1 11.4 87.6%