Sacramento St.
Big Sky
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating-6.1#278
Expected Predictive Rating-8.0#288
Pace77.0#33
Improvement-0.9#244

Offense
Total Offense-4.0#277
First Shot-6.6#346
After Offensive Rebound+2.6#44
Layup/Dunks-1.2#222
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.2#188
3 Pt Jumpshots-8.1#355
Freethrows+3.0#41
Improvement-1.0#260

Defense
Total Defense-2.1#236
First Shot-0.7#194
After Offensive Rebounds-1.4#285
Layups/Dunks-1.5#233
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.4#177
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.6#206
Freethrows+1.1#121
Improvement+0.1#177
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 2.7% 4.5% 2.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.6 15.3 15.7
.500 or above 5.2% 13.1% 3.9%
.500 or above in Conference 23.9% 33.3% 22.3%
Conference Champion 2.2% 4.0% 2.0%
Last Place in Conference 33.4% 24.4% 34.9%
First Four1.5% 1.6% 1.5%
First Round2.1% 3.8% 1.8%
Second Round0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: California Baptist (Away) - 14.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 3
Quad 20 - 30 - 5
Quad 32 - 92 - 14
Quad 46 - 69 - 20


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Tue, Nov 11 141 UC Santa Barbara L 87-92 33%     0 - 1 -6.7 +5.5 -12.0
  Fri, Nov 14 170 @UC Davis L 73-77 22%     0 - 2 -2.0 +0.6 -2.4
  Sun, Nov 16 262 Presbyterian W 64-62 59%     1 - 2 -6.5 -7.9 +1.6
  Tue, Nov 18 27 @UCLA L 48-79 3%     1 - 3 -14.1 -17.6 +3.9
  Fri, Nov 21 76 @California L 67-91 7%     1 - 4 -13.4 -5.8 -5.9
  Sat, Nov 29 137 @Pacific L 54-68 16%     1 - 5 -9.3 -16.6 +7.4
  Tue, Dec 2 34 @Baylor L 88-110 3%     1 - 6 -6.0 +13.0 -17.3
  Sat, Dec 20 131 @California Baptist L 68-79 15%    
  Mon, Dec 22 261 @Cal St. Northridge L 79-83 37%    
  Thu, Jan 1 168 @Idaho St. L 68-76 22%    
  Sat, Jan 3 195 @Weber St. L 75-82 26%    
  Sat, Jan 10 171 @Portland St. L 70-78 23%    
  Thu, Jan 15 251 Northern Arizona W 76-74 57%    
  Sat, Jan 17 157 Northern Colorado L 76-79 40%    
  Thu, Jan 22 173 @Idaho L 73-81 23%    
  Sat, Jan 24 234 @Eastern Washington L 78-83 33%    
  Thu, Jan 29 164 Montana St. L 72-75 41%    
  Sat, Jan 31 206 Montana L 80-81 49%    
  Mon, Feb 2 195 Weber St. L 78-79 46%    
  Sat, Feb 7 171 Portland St. L 73-75 43%    
  Thu, Feb 12 157 @Northern Colorado L 73-82 22%    
  Sat, Feb 14 251 @Northern Arizona L 73-77 35%    
  Thu, Feb 19 234 Eastern Washington W 81-80 54%    
  Sat, Feb 21 173 Idaho L 76-78 43%    
  Thu, Feb 26 206 @Montana L 77-83 29%    
  Sat, Feb 28 164 @Montana St. L 69-78 22%    
  Mon, Mar 2 168 Idaho St. L 71-73 42%    
Projected Record 8 - 19 7 - 11




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Sky Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.7 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.2 1st
2nd 0.4 1.5 1.2 0.5 0.1 0.0 3.7 2nd
3rd 0.3 2.0 1.8 0.6 0.0 4.6 3rd
4th 0.2 2.3 2.8 0.7 0.1 0.0 6.0 4th
5th 0.0 0.1 2.1 4.0 1.1 0.0 7.3 5th
6th 0.1 1.9 4.8 2.1 0.1 9.0 6th
7th 0.2 1.9 5.6 3.3 0.3 11.3 7th
8th 0.0 0.4 2.5 6.0 4.6 0.6 0.0 14.2 8th
9th 0.0 0.2 1.2 4.2 6.6 4.7 1.0 0.0 17.9 9th
10th 0.4 1.9 4.3 6.4 6.4 3.7 0.7 0.0 23.8 10th
Total 0.4 1.9 4.5 7.6 11.1 13.0 13.4 13.2 11.0 8.9 6.4 4.2 2.4 1.3 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 Total



Big Sky Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
17-1 100.0% 0.0    0.0
16-2 100.0% 0.0    0.0
15-3 94.9% 0.2    0.2 0.0
14-4 82.4% 0.5    0.4 0.1 0.0
13-5 54.8% 0.7    0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0
12-6 24.1% 0.6    0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0
11-7 5.9% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0
9-9 0.0%
Total 2.2% 2.2 1.1 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.0% 0.0
17-1 0.0% 0.0 0.0
16-2 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
15-3 0.2% 30.5% 30.5% 14.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
14-4 0.6% 20.0% 20.0% 14.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.5
13-5 1.3% 16.1% 16.1% 14.6 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 1.1
12-6 2.4% 12.4% 12.4% 15.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.0 2.1
11-7 4.2% 9.5% 9.5% 15.5 0.0 0.2 0.2 3.8
10-8 6.4% 7.8% 7.8% 15.9 0.0 0.1 0.4 5.9
9-9 8.9% 4.7% 4.7% 16.0 0.0 0.4 8.5
8-10 11.0% 2.3% 2.3% 16.0 0.3 10.8
7-11 13.2% 1.3% 1.3% 16.0 0.2 13.1
6-12 13.4% 1.0% 1.0% 16.0 0.1 13.2
5-13 13.0% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.1 12.9
4-14 11.1% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 11.1
3-15 7.6% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 7.6
2-16 4.5% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 4.4
1-17 1.9% 1.9
0-18 0.4% 0.4
Total 100% 2.7% 2.7% 0.0% 15.6 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.8 97.3 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.2%