Big Sky
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
142 Portland St. 27.9%   14   13 - 6 10 - 1 +1.2      -3.5 262 +4.6 61 69.4 162 +3.0 114 +8.8 1
162 Montana St. 17.4%   11 - 11 8 - 4 -0.3      -0.6 179 +0.3 158 65.2 273 -1.1 183 +0.7 2
170 Montana 16.6%   11 - 10 8 - 4 -0.6      -1.5 208 +0.9 141 72.2 86 -0.9 178 +0.5 3
175 Northern Colorado 12.1%   12 - 10 5 - 7 -1.0      +1.0 141 -1.9 236 70.8 118 -1.1 180 -4.7 8
189 Idaho 9.5%   10 - 11 5 - 6 -1.9      -1.2 199 -0.8 200 68.2 198 -1.8 200 -3.4 5
229 Eastern Washington 5.8%   6 - 17 5 - 6 -3.7      +0.3 154 -4.0 292 69.4 161 -5.9 259 -2.6 4
232 Weber St. 5.0%   10 - 13 6 - 6 -4.0      0.0 161 -4.0 293 71.5 106 -4.9 242 -3.9 7
250 Idaho St. 2.5%   7 - 15 3 - 9 -5.0      +0.1 159 -5.1 318 62.8 329 -6.2 262 -9.5 10
254 Sacramento St. 2.9%   6 - 14 5 - 6 -5.4      -1.2 200 -4.2 301 76.7 22 -5.3 247 -3.7 6
311 Northern Arizona 0.3%   6 - 16 3 - 9 -9.0      -1.8 215 -7.2 349 62.3 337 -8.1 298 -8.9 9


Upcoming Games

Date Team Points Team Points Chance Interest
Thu, Feb 12 189 Idaho 80 232 Weber St. 75 69%   
Thu, Feb 12 229 Eastern Washington 78 250 Idaho St. 73 66%   
Thu, Feb 12 175 Northern Colorado 86 254 Sacramento St. 79 76%   
Thu, Feb 12 311 Northern Arizona 66 142 Portland St. 73 75%   
Sat, Feb 14 170 Montana 74 162 Montana St. 71 60%   
Sat, Feb 14 175 Northern Colorado 74 142 Portland St. 73 53%   
Sat, Feb 14 229 Eastern Washington 82 232 Weber St. 78 63%   
Sat, Feb 14 189 Idaho 76 250 Idaho St. 70 72%   
Sat, Feb 14 311 Northern Arizona 78 254 Sacramento St. 79 52%   




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Season

Projected Place
Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th
Portland St. 1.1 93.2 5.6 1.1 0.1 0.0
Montana St. 2.4 10.7 50.6 28.6 7.1 2.2 0.6 0.1 0.0
Montana 2.5 9.5 46.9 31.4 8.4 2.7 0.8 0.3 0.0
Northern Colorado 5.3 0.0 2.4 10.4 21.4 23.2 19.3 13.7 8.4 1.2 0.1
Idaho 4.9 0.3 4.3 15.9 26.4 20.0 14.8 10.5 6.6 1.2 0.1
Eastern Washington 5.2 0.2 3.2 12.0 23.4 21.0 16.6 12.7 8.9 1.7 0.4
Weber St. 5.7 0.1 2.7 7.8 14.0 18.9 21.6 20.1 12.8 2.0 0.1
Idaho St. 8.7 0.1 0.5 1.3 3.6 7.1 16.5 52.5 18.5
Sacramento St. 6.3 0.0 1.5 5.1 10.3 16.1 17.8 21.0 21.6 5.8 0.8
Northern Arizona 9.4 0.1 0.3 0.7 2.1 6.8 33.3 56.7

Projected Wins
Team Exp Conf Record Exp Overall Record 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
Portland St. 14 - 4 17 - 9 0.2 1.3 6.4 17.1 27.0 27.7 16.6 3.8
Montana St. 12 - 6 15 - 13 0.7 4.8 15.2 26.8 29.6 17.9 5.0
Montana 11 - 7 14 - 13 0.9 5.9 17.6 27.9 28.8 14.9 4.1
Northern Colorado 9 - 9 16 - 12 0.5 3.7 12.9 26.3 31.3 19.6 5.8
Idaho 9 - 9 14 - 14 0.3 2.6 9.3 21.5 28.5 23.8 11.6 2.4
Eastern Washington 9 - 9 10 - 20 0.5 3.9 12.5 24.4 28.4 20.4 8.4 1.6
Weber St. 8 - 10 12 - 17 7.0 20.9 30.0 24.6 13.3 3.8 0.5
Idaho St. 5 - 13 9 - 19 4.9 17.4 29.7 27.0 15.5 4.8 0.7
Sacramento St. 8 - 10 9 - 18 3.0 13.0 25.2 28.3 19.9 8.1 2.3 0.3
Northern Arizona 5 - 13 8 - 20 16.6 34.6 29.1 14.6 4.3 0.7 0.1

Projected Regular Season Champion
Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Portland St. 93.2% 81.5 10.2 1.5 0.1
Montana St. 10.7% 3.5 5.8 1.4 0.1
Montana 9.5% 2.6 5.5 1.4 0.1
Northern Colorado 0.0% 0.0
Idaho 0.3% 0.2 0.1 0.0
Eastern Washington 0.2% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0
Weber St. 0.1% 0.0 0.1 0.0
Idaho St.
Sacramento St. 0.0% 0.0 0.0
Northern Arizona


NCAA Tournament Selection and Simulation

Tournament Selection
TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Portland St. 27.9% 27.9% 0.0% 14   0.1 1.6 9.8 13.3 3.1 0.1 72.1 0.0%
Montana St. 17.4% 17.4% 0.0% 0.3 2.2 6.7 6.6 1.7 82.6 0.0%
Montana 16.6% 16.6% 0.0% 0.2 2.3 6.7 6.5 0.9 83.4 0.0%
Northern Colorado 12.1% 12.1% 0.0% 0.4 2.9 5.1 3.1 0.6 87.9 0.0%
Idaho 9.5% 9.5% 0.0% 0.1 0.8 3.0 4.6 1.1 90.5 0.0%
Eastern Washington 5.8% 5.8% 0.0% 0.2 5.6 94.2 0.0%
Weber St. 5.0% 5.0% 0.0% 0.1 0.3 1.4 3.3 95.0 0.0%
Idaho St. 2.5% 2.5% 0.0% 0.1 2.4 97.5 0.0%
Sacramento St. 2.9% 2.9% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 2.8 97.1 0.0%
Northern Arizona 0.3% 0.3% 0.0% 0.3 99.7 0.0%

Conference Totals
Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.0 100.0
1st Round 95.0% 0.9 5.0 95.0
2nd Round 2.2% 0.0 97.8 2.2
Sweet Sixteen 0.2% 0.0 99.8 0.2
Elite Eight 0.0% 0.0 100.0
Final Four 0.0% 0.0 100.0
Final Game 0.0% 0.0 100.0
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0

Tournament Simulation
TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Portland St. 27.9% 0.0% 27.9% 1.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Montana St. 17.4% 0.6% 17.2% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Montana 16.6% 0.2% 16.5% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Northern Colorado 12.1% 0.1% 12.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Idaho 9.5% 0.3% 9.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Eastern Washington 5.8% 5.2% 4.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Weber St. 5.0% 2.1% 4.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Idaho St. 2.5% 2.1% 1.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sacramento St. 2.9% 2.5% 1.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Northern Arizona 0.3% 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%