Big Sky
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
152 Montana St. 21.7%   9 - 8 6 - 1 +0.5      0.0 166 +0.6 147 65.2 277 +0.3 159 +6.8 2
153 Portland St. 22.8%   14   9 - 5 6 - 0 +0.5      -3.1 262 +3.7 77 70.2 148 +2.4 124 +11.9 1
161 Montana 18.3%   8 - 8 5 - 2 -0.2      +0.5 150 -0.6 190 72.0 95 -0.9 174 +1.9 3
183 Idaho 11.5%   9 - 7 4 - 2 -1.6      +0.3 156 -1.9 240 66.3 257 +0.2 160 0.0 4
185 Northern Colorado 8.1%   8 - 9 1 - 6 -1.7      +0.5 148 -2.3 247 70.8 130 -2.4 210 -11.8 9
217 Weber St. 6.6%   8 - 10 4 - 3 -3.4      -1.2 198 -2.2 246 71.5 107 -4.3 229 -2.2 5
219 Idaho St. 5.6%   7 - 10 3 - 4 -3.5      +0.6 147 -4.1 295 63.6 317 -3.6 224 -5.6 7
243 Eastern Washington 4.1%   3 - 15 2 - 4 -4.5      -0.8 187 -3.7 284 71.2 114 -8.9 311 -4.9 6
290 Sacramento St. 1.2%   3 - 12 2 - 4 -7.3      -3.2 265 -4.1 296 78.0 19 -7.9 295 -6.2 8
315 Northern Arizona 0.4%   3 - 14 0 - 7 -9.4      -3.5 272 -5.9 338 63.7 316 -11.0 332 -18.1 10


Recent Games

Date Team Points Team Points Interest
Mon, Jan 19 152 Montana St. 73 185 Northern Colorado 68   
Mon, Jan 19 161 Montana 98 315 Northern Arizona 72   
Thu, Jan 22 243 Eastern Washington 61 153 Portland St. 65   
Thu, Jan 22 219 Idaho St. 62 152 Montana St. 74   
Thu, Jan 22 161 Montana 81 217 Weber St. 65   
Thu, Jan 22 183 Idaho 86 290 Sacramento St. 76   


Upcoming Games

Date Team Points Team Points Chance Interest
Sat, Jan 24 183 Idaho 72 153 Portland St. 71 53%   
Sat, Jan 24 219 Idaho St. 72 161 Montana 79 73%   
Sat, Jan 24 152 Montana St. 77 217 Weber St. 70 75%   
Sat, Jan 24 243 Eastern Washington 85 290 Sacramento St. 79 71%   
Sat, Jan 24 315 Northern Arizona 72 185 Northern Colorado 77 68%   




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Season

Projected Place
Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th
Montana St. 2.0 41.7 32.4 15.0 6.8 2.9 0.9 0.3 0.1 0.0
Portland St. 1.8 53.4 24.0 12.9 6.0 2.5 0.9 0.3 0.1
Montana 2.9 18.6 26.2 26.9 15.3 7.6 3.3 1.5 0.5 0.1
Idaho 3.9 7.9 15.0 21.5 23.7 15.3 8.8 4.7 2.2 0.8 0.1
Northern Colorado 6.6 0.1 0.8 3.4 8.9 14.3 19.0 20.0 19.6 11.6 2.4
Weber St. 5.0 1.8 6.5 12.0 19.2 22.0 17.1 11.8 7.0 2.5 0.2
Idaho St. 6.0 0.4 2.4 6.5 12.0 16.8 20.1 19.6 14.5 7.1 0.7
Eastern Washington 6.4 0.3 1.4 4.5 9.5 15.1 19.3 18.7 16.7 12.3 2.2
Sacramento St. 7.7 0.1 0.5 1.4 3.1 6.2 9.7 14.7 22.5 34.8 7.1
Northern Arizona 9.6 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.9 2.1 6.0 16.2 74.5

Projected Wins
Team Exp Conf Record Exp Overall Record 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
Montana St. 13 - 5 16 - 12 0.0 0.1 0.7 2.5 5.9 12.1 18.0 21.4 20.0 13.0 5.2 1.1
Portland St. 13 - 5 16 - 10 0.0 0.1 0.5 2.2 5.1 9.3 15.6 19.2 19.5 15.1 9.1 3.6 0.8
Montana 12 - 6 15 - 12 0.0 0.2 1.0 3.2 7.6 14.5 19.3 21.3 17.6 10.3 4.3 0.8
Idaho 10 - 8 15 - 13 0.0 0.4 1.5 4.3 9.4 15.6 19.3 19.7 15.3 9.3 3.9 1.2 0.1
Northern Colorado 7 - 11 14 - 14 0.0 0.3 1.2 3.6 8.9 15.0 20.3 21.2 16.5 9.0 3.5 0.6
Weber St. 9 - 9 13 - 16 0.2 1.5 5.2 11.5 18.1 21.0 19.3 13.1 6.9 2.5 0.6 0.1
Idaho St. 8 - 10 12 - 16 0.2 1.6 5.3 12.2 18.4 21.5 18.5 12.8 6.5 2.4 0.5 0.1
Eastern Washington 8 - 10 9 - 21 0.2 0.8 3.4 8.3 14.4 19.4 20.5 16.2 10.2 4.6 1.6 0.4 0.0
Sacramento St. 6 - 12 7 - 20 1.4 5.9 13.2 18.4 21.0 17.0 12.0 6.8 2.9 1.1 0.3 0.1
Northern Arizona 3 - 15 6 - 22 4.0 13.2 21.9 23.0 18.0 11.5 5.6 2.0 0.7 0.2 0.0

Projected Regular Season Champion
Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Montana St. 41.7% 27.2 11.8 2.4 0.3 0.0
Portland St. 53.4% 38.8 12.0 2.4 0.3 0.0
Montana 18.6% 9.3 6.9 2.1 0.3 0.0
Idaho 7.9% 3.4 3.0 1.3 0.2 0.0
Northern Colorado 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Weber St. 1.8% 0.6 0.7 0.5 0.1 0.0
Idaho St. 0.4% 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
Eastern Washington 0.3% 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
Sacramento St. 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Northern Arizona


NCAA Tournament Selection and Simulation

Tournament Selection
TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Montana St. 21.7% 21.7% 0.0% 0.1 0.8 5.0 9.2 5.8 0.8 78.3 0.0%
Portland St. 22.8% 22.8% 0.0% 14   0.1 1.4 6.7 10.0 4.3 0.3 77.2 0.0%
Montana 18.3% 18.3% 0.0% 0.0 0.5 3.5 7.2 5.8 1.2 81.7 0.0%
Idaho 11.5% 11.5% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 1.6 4.4 4.4 0.9 88.5 0.0%
Northern Colorado 8.1% 8.1% 0.0% 0.2 1.1 2.5 3.0 1.3 91.9 0.0%
Weber St. 6.6% 6.6% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.7 2.7 2.9 93.5 0.0%
Idaho St. 5.6% 5.6% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.5 2.3 2.7 94.4 0.0%
Eastern Washington 4.1% 4.1% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.1 4.0 95.9 0.0%
Sacramento St. 1.2% 1.2% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 1.1 98.8 0.0%
Northern Arizona 0.4% 0.4% 0.0% 0.4 99.6 0.0%

Conference Totals
Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.0 100.0
1st Round 96.4% 1.0 3.6 96.4
2nd Round 2.9% 0.0 97.1 2.9
Sweet Sixteen 0.3% 0.0 99.7 0.3
Elite Eight 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Final Four 0.0% 0.0 100.0
Final Game 0.0% 0.0 100.0
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0

Tournament Simulation
TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Montana St. 21.7% 0.2% 21.6% 0.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Portland St. 22.8% 0.1% 22.7% 1.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Montana 18.3% 0.3% 18.1% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Idaho 11.5% 0.2% 11.4% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Northern Colorado 8.1% 0.6% 7.9% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Weber St. 6.6% 1.7% 5.9% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Idaho St. 5.6% 1.5% 4.9% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Eastern Washington 4.1% 3.7% 2.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sacramento St. 1.2% 1.0% 0.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Northern Arizona 0.4% 0.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%