Idaho St.
Big Sky
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -5.3 257
Expected Predictive Rating -6.5 266
Pace 62.8 328
Improvement -8.5 365

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense C 158 C+ C C- C+ B-
Defense D 324 D+ C- D D C-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 38% 199 C- 56% 226 -1.1 226
2 Pt. Jumpers 15% 296 C+ 40% 114 -1.8 270
Three Pointers 47% 53 B- 36% 96 +4.5 40
Shot Selection/Accuracy B- +0.7 97 C+ +0.9 138
1st FG Attempt C+ 1.05 120
Second Chance C+ 32.9% 110 C- 0.99 241 C 0.32 146
Turnovers C- 17.5% 224
Freethrows C+ 0.32 150 C+ 73% 153 C+ 0.23 135
Total Offense C +0.2 158

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 41% 110 C- 60% 248 -2.7 268
2 Pt. Jumpers 19% 216 F 50% 365 -1.8 318
Three Pointers 39% 235 C+ 33% 122 +1.5 121
Shot Selection/Accuracy C- +0.7 97 D+ +0.9 138
1st FG Attempt 1.08 278 D+ -2.9 280
Second Chance C 30.4% 176 D+ 1.10 290 C- 0.33 239
Turnovers D 14.7% 314
Freethrows C- 0.32 246 F 78% 361 D 0.25 305
Total Defense D -5.5 324

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 19.7 357 17.0 134
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.11 343 0.19 257
Improvement -2.9 #316 -5.6 #360

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 2% 2% 2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 16.0 15.9 16.0
.500 or above 0% 0% 0%
.500 or above in Conference 0% 0% 0%
Conference Champion 0% 0% 0%
Last Place in Conference 42% 21% 50%
First Four2% 2% 2%
First Round2% 2% 1%
Second Round0% 0% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%

Next Game: Idaho (Away) - 28.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 30 - 5
Quad 33 - 103 - 15
Quad 47 - 510 - 20


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Fri, Nov 7 215 @San Diego W 71 - 68 30% +7  78% 1 - 0 C+ +3 C+ +2 C- D+ A- C+ +1 C B- D+
 Sun, Nov 9 43 @San Diego St. L 57 - 73 4% -11  0% 1 - 1 C -1 C +0 A- C F C- -3 F A+ B
 Sat, Nov 15 134 @Seattle L 74 - 83 17% -9  1% 1 - 2 C- -4 A+ +16 B+ A+ C F -21 F F B-
 Tue, Nov 18 44 @Santa Clara L 55 - 64 4% -5  2% 1 - 3 B- +6 F+ -9 C- F F+ A+ +15 A+ B- D-
 Wed, Nov 26 120 Sam Houston St. L 81 - 84 22% -1  29% 1 - 4 C -0 B- +4 A F F D+ -4 C F C+
 Fri, Nov 28 185 Cal St. Northridge W 82 - 50 36% +18  82% 2 - 4 A+ +30 C- -1 B- A D- A+ +29 A+ B B
 Wed, Dec 3 357 @UMKC W 68 - 59 74% +0  26% 3 - 4 C- -3 C +0 D B+ D- C- -2 D C+ B-
 Sat, Dec 6 247 Denver W 93 - 79 59% +6  81% 4 - 4 B- +6 A +12 A- B A- D+ -5 C F C
 Wed, Dec 10 101 @Utah Valley L 69 - 73 11% +1  40% 4 - 5 C+ +4 C- -0 B- F B- B +4 C+ A- A-
 Sun, Dec 21 187 UC Davis L 83 - 93 48% -8  2% 4 - 6 F+ -15 A +11 A+ C+ B F -27 F D- F
 Thu, Jan 1 263 Sacramento St. W 97 - 84 63% +10  93% 5 - 6 1 - 0 C+ +4 C+ +3 A- D+ A- C -0 B- D- C-
 Sat, Jan 3 144 Portland St. L 87 - 93 OT 37% +5  75% 5 - 7 1 - 1 D+ -8 A- +10 A+ D+ A F -18 F A+ F
 Thu, Jan 8 171 @Northern Colorado L 72 - 85 23% -11  1% 5 - 8 1 - 2 D -11 C+ +2 D+ C D- F -14 F B F
 Sat, Jan 10 315 @Northern Arizona W 81 - 79 53% +2  60% 6 - 8 2 - 2 C- -4 B +7 A- A- F F+ -11 B- F C+
 Thu, Jan 15 202 Idaho W 76 - 68 51% -2  15% 7 - 8 3 - 2 C+ +2 C +1 A- F B- C+ +1 A+ F D
 Sat, Jan 17 221 Eastern Washington L 66 - 84 54% -15  0% 7 - 9 3 - 3 F -24 F -13 F B- A F -12 F A+ C-
 Thu, Jan 22 157 @Montana St. L 62 - 74 22% -5  4% 7 - 10 3 - 4 D -9 D -4 D+ B+ B D -6 C F+ F
 Sat, Jan 24 174 @Montana L 60 - 69 23% -8  1% 7 - 11 3 - 5 D+ -7 F -10 F B- F+ B- +3 C A+ F+
 Sat, Jan 31 224 @Weber St. L 79 - 81 32% +4  86% 7 - 12 3 - 6 C- -2 B- +4 A F C D -7 C- D- C
 Mon, Feb 2 144 @Portland St. L 65 - 88 18% -13  4% 7 - 13 3 - 7 F -19 B- +4 C- A+ F F -26 F F F
 Thu, Feb 5 315 Northern Arizona L 73 - 79 74% -4  15% 7 - 14 3 - 8 F -18 C+ +2 B- B A F -21 F A- F
 Sat, Feb 7 171 Northern Colorado L 61 - 69 43% -3  24% 7 - 15 3 - 9 D- -12 F -12 F B- B- C +0 C F+ B+
 Thu, Feb 12 221 @Eastern Washington L 75 - 88 31% -7  24% 7 - 16 3 - 10 D- -13 C+ +2 D B+ D- F -16 F C+ F
 Sat, Feb 14 202 @Idaho L 70 - 76 29%
 Thu, Feb 19 174 Montana L 73 - 75 43%
 Sat, Feb 21 157 Montana St. L 70 - 72 42%
 Sat, Feb 28 224 Weber St. W 77 - 76 54%
 Mon, Mar 2 263 @Sacramento St. L 78 - 81 41%
Totals 9 - 19 5 - 13 -5 F +0 F+ C+ B- D+ -5 B- C+ C+



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings C C- C+ B- C+ 38% 15% 47% B- C+ C+ C- C C- C+ C+ C+ D C- F C+ D+ 41% 19% 39% C- D+ C D+ C- D C- F D
1.09 56% 40% 36% +1 +1 1.05 33% 1.0 .32 18% .32 73% .23 1.16 60% 50% 33% +2 0 1.08 30% 1.1 .33 15% .32 78% .25
Nov
7		 San Diego C+ F A A- D+ 46% 9% 46% B+ C- B F D+ A- C+ F D+ C+ A F F B- 49% 16% 35% F C D- A B- D+ D+ B- C-
1.12 48% 50% 38% -1 +2 1.04 41% 0.8 .34 16% .36 63% .22 1.07 46% 50% 41% 0 +1 1.04 34% 0.8 .26 16% .26 71% .19
Nov
9		 San Diego St. C A- F C B+ 40% 12% 49% A- A- A- F+ C F B- C- C+ C- F B- D+ F 46% 20% 35% F F A A+ A+ B A- C A-
0.92 65% 20% 33% 0 +1 1.05 35% 0.7 .23 31% .33 71% .23 1.18 90% 33% 38% +16 +1 1.35 24% 0.6 .14 19% .24 75% .18
Nov
15		 Seattle A+ D+ F A+ B 49% 9% 42% A B+ A+ B A+ C B- B B F D+ F F F 43% 14% 43% D+ F D F F B- B- F C
1.19 50% 25% 42% 0 +2 1.07 48% 1.0 .48 21% .32 75% .24 1.33 63% 83% 53% +21 +1 1.45 29% 1.5 .43 19% .26 77% .20
Nov
18		 Santa Clara F+ A+ F F+ C- 30% 15% 55% C- C- F+ F F F+ B C B- A+ A+ F A+ A+ 47% 6% 47% F A+ F+ A+ B- D- F B- F
0.86 75% 17% 27% -4 0 0.95 23% 0.7 .16 25% .37 72% .27 1.00 39% 67% 17% -19 +2 0.69 43% 0.8 .36 12% .36 70% .25
Nov
26		 Sam Houston St. B- A+ A+ C+ A 34% 11% 55% B A C+ F F F A+ A A+ D+ B+ F C C 38% 19% 43% C C F D+ F C+ F F F
1.12 77% 50% 33% +7 +1 1.18 32% 0.6 .18 23% .74 78% .58 1.16 50% 56% 35% +1 0 1.04 52% 1.1 .55 18% .47 79% .37
Nov
28		 Cal St. Northridge C- F A+ C B 25% 22% 53% D B- C- A+ A D- C B C+ A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ 21% 26% 53% A+ A+ B- B B B C F D-
1.09 46% 73% 33% +4 -1 1.08 25% 1.9 .46 19% .31 79% .24 0.66 25% 13% 20% -24 -2 0.49 30% 0.9 .26 20% .31 79% .25
Dec
3		 UMKC C A+ F F D- 37% 11% 52% B- D A C+ B+ D- D+ B+ C C- C F A+ D 43% 26% 31% D D C- B- C+ B- F+ F+ F
1.12 76% 20% 25% -2 +1 1.00 45% 1.0 .45 20% .25 75% .18 0.97 56% 55% 23% -2 0 0.98 29% 0.8 .23 21% .34 75% .25
Dec
6		 Denver A F A+ A+ A 38% 8% 55% B- A- B C+ B A- C- A C+ D+ C- F A- C+ 40% 23% 36% D- C D F F C F B- F
1.38 45% 50% 52% +11 +2 1.26 39% 1.2 .45 9% .29 78% .23 1.18 58% 55% 29% +1 0 1.04 33% 1.4 .47 15% .47 74% .35
Dec
10		 Utah Valley C- F A+ A- C+ 45% 10% 45% A- B- D- F F B- D+ D+ D B F D- A+ C 44% 16% 40% B- C+ D- A+ A- A- D+ F F
1.01 43% 60% 39% -1 +2 1.04 24% 0.8 .18 19% .31 71% .22 1.06 75% 43% 22% +1 +1 1.07 41% 0.8 .31 25% .33 82% .27
Dec
21		 UC Davis A C A+ A+ A+ 35% 8% 58% B- A+ B+ D+ C+ B A+ B- A+ F F F A+ F 45% 25% 29% C F C F D- F D F F
1.26 57% 67% 48% +14 +1 1.33 37% 0.9 .33 17% .60 76% .46 1.41 91% 54% 27% +16 0 1.33 26% 1.3 .35 9% .38 91% .35
Jan
1		 Sacramento St. C+ F+ C A+ A- 37% 12% 51% C- A- D- B D+ A- A- D B+ C A+ F B+ B- 37% 31% 31% C+ B- C+ F D- C- F B+ F
1.20 48% 43% 48% +8 +1 1.19 26% 1.2 .32 12% .38 70% .27 1.04 35% 53% 29% -6 -1 0.87 26% 1.5 .38 15% .54 73% .39
Jan
3		 Portland St. A- B- B- A+ A+ 35% 10% 56% B- A+ B- F D+ A A F B F F F C- F 45% 17% 38% C- F A A+ A+ F F F F
1.18 61% 40% 41% +8 +1 1.19 33% 0.7 .24 14% .47 67% .31 1.26 75% 67% 35% +13 +1 1.30 22% 0.5 .11 11% .40 85% .33
Jan
8		 Northern Colorado C+ B C- F D 53% 17% 30% B D+ A- F C D- A D+ A- F F F F F 27% 10% 63% C- F B+ B- B F D+ C D+
1.11 64% 38% 14% -6 +2 0.94 33% 0.9 .31 15% .42 74% .31 1.31 71% 60% 42% +14 +1 1.31 23% 1.0 .23 12% .26 73% .19
Jan
10		 Northern Arizona B A A+ C A 41% 20% 39% D+ A- A+ D A- F A+ A- A+ F+ C+ B- A B+ 60% 14% 26% F B- F F F C+ F F F
1.26 72% 67% 35% +12 0 1.27 48% 1.0 .48 22% .42 81% .34 1.23 56% 33% 27% -5 +2 0.98 38% 1.6 .62 17% .49 77% .38
Jan
15		 Idaho C F A+ A+ A- 39% 25% 36% C+ A- D+ F F B- A A- A+ C+ D- F A+ A+ 38% 13% 49% D+ A+ B F F D F A F
1.14 41% 64% 50% +9 -1 1.18 23% 0.6 .13 13% .43 80% .35 1.02 65% 50% 14% -11 +1 0.82 23% 2.0 .46 13% .54 65% .35
Jan
17		 Eastern Washington F F A+ F F 41% 13% 46% C+ F C B B- A B- A+ A F B+ F F F 38% 33% 29% A- F A- A+ A+ C- F F F
0.98 42% 67% 19% -13 +1 0.78 33% 1.3 .42 12% .35 90% .32 1.24 50% 50% 67% +15 -2 1.29 24% 0.3 .08 18% .61 82% .50
Jan
22		 Montana St. D C- D- F+ D 44% 7% 49% A- D+ C A+ B+ B A- F C D A D+ F C 35% 22% 43% D C D- D- F+ F A B A
0.99 55% 33% 27% -7 +2 0.93 31% 1.3 .41 14% .34 61% .21 1.18 44% 45% 41% +1 0 1.04 34% 1.2 .40 10% .18 70% .12
Jan
24		 Montana F F D- D+ F 31% 21% 48% C- F C- A B- F+ C- D+ D+ B- D+ D+ B C+ 46% 13% 41% D- C A- A+ A+ F+ A+ F A+
0.89 40% 30% 30% -10 -1 0.81 28% 1.3 .35 19% .28 67% .18 1.03 64% 43% 32% +2 +2 1.09 16% 0.4 .06 16% .16 89% .14
Jan
31		 Weber St. B- C+ A+ A+ A 47% 12% 41% B A F F F C D- A D+ D A C- F D 40% 22% 38% A- C- D- D D- C C- F D-
1.17 63% 67% 43% +11 +2 1.27 19% 0.4 .08 16% .27 80% .21 1.20 45% 36% 47% +2 0 1.06 36% 1.1 .39 16% .36 80% .28
Feb
2		 Portland St. B- C+ F C- D+ 51% 14% 35% B+ C- A+ B A+ F A+ C A+ F B F F F 54% 20% 26% D+ F C F F F C- F D
1.05 58% 0% 31% -7 +2 0.92 47% 1.1 .50 24% .58 74% .43 1.42 52% 60% 54% +9 +1 1.22 31% 1.3 .41 6% .33 79% .26
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Feb
5		 Northern Arizona C+ A- D- D+ C+ 52% 7% 41% A- B- F A+ B A C+ C+ C+ F F F F F 38% 21% 40% C- F A+ F A- F C- F+ D+
1.23 70% 33% 33% +5 +3 1.18 24% 1.8 .43 12% .31 75% .23 1.33 72% 60% 47% +18 0 1.38 9% 1.5 .14 8% .28 73% .20
Feb
7		 Northern Colorado F F F C- F 44% 19% 37% C F C- A+ B- B- D- F F+ C D+ D+ C- C- 41% 24% 35% B- C B+ F F+ B+ A F B
0.94 39% 20% 32% -13 +1 0.77 24% 1.4 .34 11% .28 69% .19 1.07 65% 42% 35% +4 0 1.10 23% 1.7 .38 20% .15 88% .14
Feb
12		 Eastern Washington C+ A- F+ F D- 39% 15% 46% C D A+ D+ B+ D- A+ B A+ F F D- C+ F 45% 18% 37% D- F A+ F C+ F F F F
1.14 69% 33% 26% -2 +1 1.00 45% 1.1 .48 20% .57 80% .45 1.34 77% 44% 33% +9 +1 1.22 22% 1.4 .30 9% .43 92% .40



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Sky Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 0.0 0.0 4th
5th 0.0 0.3 0.3 5th
6th 0.5 0.7 1.2 6th
7th 0.4 3.1 0.6 4.0 7th
8th 1.3 7.9 4.8 0.1 14.1 8th
9th 1.8 14.9 27.7 15.9 1.1 61.4 9th
10th 5.8 9.3 3.6 0.2 18.9 10th
Total 7.6 24.3 32.5 24.4 9.6 1.7 Total



Big Sky Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9
8-10 1.7% 5.4% 5.4% 15.6 0.0 0.1 1.6
7-11 9.6% 3.6% 3.6% 16.0 0.3 9.2
6-12 24.4% 2.9% 2.9% 16.0 0.7 23.7
5-13 32.5% 2.0% 2.0% 16.0 0.7 31.9
4-14 24.3% 1.7% 1.7% 16.0 0.4 23.9
3-15 7.6% 1.2% 1.2% 16.0 0.1 7.5
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 2.3% 2.3% 0.0% 16.0 97.7 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.1%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.3%
Lose Out 3.3%