Sacramento St.
Big Sky
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating-6.2#274
Expected Predictive Rating-8.2#287
Pace76.7#37
Improvement-0.6#233

Offense
Total Offense-3.9#274
First Shot-6.4#336
After Offensive Rebound+2.5#51
Layup/Dunks-0.8#208
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.7#212
3 Pt Jumpshots-7.7#353
Freethrows+2.9#47
Improvement-1.1#268

Defense
Total Defense-2.3#242
First Shot-0.8#198
After Offensive Rebounds-1.5#285
Layups/Dunks-1.6#238
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.7#153
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.7#200
Freethrows+0.8#132
Improvement+0.5#141
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 2.5% 3.9% 2.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.6 15.3 15.6
.500 or above 5.1% 13.3% 3.7%
.500 or above in Conference 23.1% 33.5% 21.3%
Conference Champion 1.9% 3.5% 1.6%
Last Place in Conference 30.7% 21.8% 32.2%
First Four1.4% 1.7% 1.4%
First Round2.0% 3.2% 1.8%
Second Round0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: California Baptist (Away) - 14.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 3
Quad 20 - 30 - 5
Quad 32 - 92 - 15
Quad 46 - 59 - 20


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Tue, Nov 11 148 UC Santa Barbara L 87-92 36%     0 - 1 -7.5 +5.9 -13.1
  Fri, Nov 14 168 @UC Davis L 73-77 22%     0 - 2 -1.9 +0.6 -2.4
  Sun, Nov 16 257 Presbyterian W 64-62 59%     1 - 2 -6.4 -7.3 +1.0
  Tue, Nov 18 31 @UCLA L 48-79 3%     1 - 3 -14.4 -17.4 +3.4
  Fri, Nov 21 69 @California L 67-91 6%     1 - 4 -13.0 -5.9 -5.4
  Sat, Nov 29 139 @Pacific L 54-68 16%     1 - 5 -9.5 -16.9 +7.6
  Tue, Dec 2 28 @Baylor L 88-110 3%     1 - 6 -5.2 +13.3 -16.8
  Sat, Dec 20 130 @California Baptist L 67-78 15%    
  Mon, Dec 22 253 @Cal St. Northridge L 80-84 36%    
  Thu, Jan 1 167 @Idaho St. L 67-75 21%    
  Sat, Jan 3 192 @Weber St. L 75-82 26%    
  Sat, Jan 10 156 @Portland St. L 72-81 20%    
  Thu, Jan 15 263 Northern Arizona W 77-74 59%    
  Sat, Jan 17 151 Northern Colorado L 76-79 38%    
  Thu, Jan 22 187 @Idaho L 72-79 26%    
  Sat, Jan 24 251 @Eastern Washington L 78-82 35%    
  Thu, Jan 29 152 Montana St. L 72-75 38%    
  Sat, Jan 31 197 Montana L 80-81 48%    
  Mon, Feb 2 192 Weber St. L 78-79 47%    
  Sat, Feb 7 156 Portland St. L 75-78 39%    
  Thu, Feb 12 151 @Northern Colorado L 73-82 21%    
  Sat, Feb 14 263 @Northern Arizona L 74-77 38%    
  Thu, Feb 19 251 Eastern Washington W 81-79 57%    
  Sat, Feb 21 187 Idaho L 75-76 46%    
  Thu, Feb 26 197 @Montana L 77-84 28%    
  Sat, Feb 28 152 @Montana St. L 69-78 21%    
  Mon, Mar 2 167 Idaho St. L 70-72 42%    
Projected Record 8 - 19 7 - 11




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Sky Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.1 1.9 1st
2nd 0.0 0.3 1.2 1.2 0.4 0.1 0.0 3.3 2nd
3rd 0.2 1.7 1.9 0.7 0.1 0.0 4.6 3rd
4th 0.0 0.2 1.9 2.9 0.8 0.1 5.8 4th
5th 0.2 2.2 3.9 1.3 0.1 7.6 5th
6th 0.1 2.3 5.4 2.0 0.1 10.0 6th
7th 0.0 0.3 2.2 6.0 3.3 0.3 12.1 7th
8th 0.0 0.6 3.2 6.3 4.7 0.5 0.0 15.3 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 1.6 4.5 6.4 4.2 0.9 0.0 17.7 9th
10th 0.4 1.9 4.2 6.1 5.8 2.8 0.6 0.0 21.7 10th
Total 0.4 1.9 4.3 7.7 10.9 12.6 13.3 14.0 11.7 8.4 6.3 4.1 2.6 1.0 0.5 0.2 0.1 Total



Big Sky Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2 100.0% 0.1    0.1 0.0
15-3 96.3% 0.2    0.1 0.0
14-4 80.7% 0.4    0.3 0.1 0.0
13-5 48.3% 0.5    0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0
12-6 24.5% 0.6    0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0
11-7 2.5% 0.1    0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 1.9% 1.9 0.9 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2 0.1% 55.6% 55.6% 14.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
15-3 0.2% 25.9% 25.9% 14.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
14-4 0.5% 20.7% 20.7% 14.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4
13-5 1.0% 16.6% 16.6% 14.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.8
12-6 2.6% 9.3% 9.3% 15.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 2.3
11-7 4.1% 10.0% 10.0% 15.6 0.0 0.1 0.3 3.7
10-8 6.3% 6.4% 6.4% 15.9 0.0 0.0 0.4 5.9
9-9 8.4% 3.9% 3.9% 15.9 0.0 0.3 8.1
8-10 11.7% 2.1% 2.1% 16.0 0.2 11.4
7-11 14.0% 1.4% 1.4% 16.0 0.2 13.8
6-12 13.3% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.1 13.2
5-13 12.6% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.1 12.6
4-14 10.9% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.1 10.8
3-15 7.7% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.0 7.7
2-16 4.3% 4.3
1-17 1.9% 1.9
0-18 0.4% 0.4
Total 100% 2.5% 2.5% 0.0% 15.6 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.7 97.5 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.2%