Sacramento St.
Big Sky
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating-6.2#276
Expected Predictive Rating-10.2#318
Pace76.3#36
Improvement-1.2#260

Offense
Total Offense-3.9#276
First Shot-6.8#350
After Offensive Rebound+2.9#35
Layup/Dunks-3.8#306
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.8#79
3 Pt Jumpshots-6.5#340
Freethrows+1.7#86
Improvement-0.2#194

Defense
Total Defense-2.4#245
First Shot+0.3#159
After Offensive Rebounds-2.6#333
Layups/Dunks+0.5#154
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.4#170
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.3#179
Freethrows-1.0#254
Improvement-1.0#257
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 2.8% 4.3% 2.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.8 15.6 15.8
.500 or above 3.2% 8.2% 1.8%
.500 or above in Conference 26.4% 46.4% 20.8%
Conference Champion 2.3% 6.1% 1.2%
Last Place in Conference 28.9% 14.5% 33.0%
First Four2.0% 2.5% 1.8%
First Round2.1% 3.2% 1.7%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Idaho St. (Away) - 22.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 3
Quad 20 - 20 - 5
Quad 32 - 92 - 14
Quad 47 - 68 - 20


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Tue, Nov 11 150 UC Santa Barbara L 87-92 35%     0 - 1 -7.3 +6.2 -13.3
  Fri, Nov 14 176 @UC Davis L 73-77 22%     0 - 2 -2.2 -1.5 -0.5
  Sun, Nov 16 286 Presbyterian W 64-62 63%     1 - 2 -7.6 -8.6 +1.0
  Tue, Nov 18 30 @UCLA L 48-79 2%     1 - 3 -13.6 -18.3 +5.0
  Fri, Nov 21 65 @California L 67-91 6%     1 - 4 -12.7 -4.8 -6.3
  Sat, Nov 29 138 @Pacific L 54-68 15%     1 - 5 -9.3 -17.2 +8.0
  Tue, Dec 2 27 @Baylor L 88-110 2%     1 - 6 -4.2 +13.3 -15.8
  Sat, Dec 20 134 @California Baptist L 67-74 15%     1 - 7 -2.3 -0.8 -1.8
  Mon, Dec 22 212 @Cal St. Northridge L 88-100 28%     1 - 8 -12.3 +1.6 -12.2
  Thu, Jan 1 175 @Idaho St. L 69-77 22%    
  Sat, Jan 3 223 @Weber St. L 76-81 31%    
  Sat, Jan 10 173 @Portland St. L 69-77 22%    
  Thu, Jan 15 289 Northern Arizona W 75-72 63%    
  Sat, Jan 17 171 Northern Colorado L 77-80 41%    
  Thu, Jan 22 177 @Idaho L 71-79 23%    
  Sat, Jan 24 258 @Eastern Washington L 80-84 36%    
  Thu, Jan 29 168 Montana St. L 72-75 40%    
  Sat, Jan 31 209 Montana L 79-80 50%    
  Mon, Feb 2 223 Weber St. W 79-78 52%    
  Sat, Feb 7 173 Portland St. L 72-74 43%    
  Thu, Feb 12 171 @Northern Colorado L 74-83 22%    
  Sat, Feb 14 289 @Northern Arizona L 72-75 41%    
  Thu, Feb 19 258 Eastern Washington W 83-81 58%    
  Sat, Feb 21 177 Idaho L 74-76 42%    
  Thu, Feb 26 209 @Montana L 77-83 29%    
  Sat, Feb 28 168 @Montana St. L 69-78 22%    
  Mon, Mar 2 175 Idaho St. L 72-74 43%    
Projected Record 8 - 19 7 - 11




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Sky Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.8 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.3 1st
2nd 0.0 0.3 1.4 1.3 0.5 0.1 0.0 3.7 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.4 2.0 2.1 0.6 0.1 5.2 3rd
4th 0.2 2.3 3.3 0.8 0.1 6.7 4th
5th 0.2 2.2 4.5 1.3 0.0 8.2 5th
6th 0.0 0.1 2.0 5.5 2.5 0.1 10.2 6th
7th 0.0 0.2 2.0 6.0 3.8 0.4 0.0 12.3 7th
8th 0.0 0.5 2.6 6.1 4.7 0.7 14.6 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 1.1 3.9 6.6 4.8 1.0 0.0 17.5 9th
10th 0.2 1.2 3.1 5.4 5.4 3.1 0.8 0.0 19.3 10th
Total 0.2 1.2 3.3 6.5 9.8 12.6 13.8 13.9 12.3 10.0 7.1 4.6 2.6 1.3 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 Total



Big Sky Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
17-1 100.0% 0.0    0.0
16-2 100.0% 0.0    0.0
15-3 88.5% 0.2    0.2 0.0
14-4 84.9% 0.5    0.3 0.1 0.0
13-5 60.1% 0.8    0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0
12-6 22.9% 0.6    0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0
11-7 4.1% 0.2    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0
10-8 0.0% 0.0    0.0
9-9 0.0%
Total 2.3% 2.3 1.1 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.0% 0.0
17-1 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
16-2 0.0% 0.0 0.0
15-3 0.2% 14.8% 14.8% 14.6 0.0 0.0 0.2
14-4 0.6% 20.9% 20.9% 14.7 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.5
13-5 1.3% 12.9% 12.9% 15.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 1.1
12-6 2.6% 11.4% 11.4% 15.3 0.0 0.2 0.1 2.3
11-7 4.6% 8.6% 8.6% 15.9 0.0 0.4 4.2
10-8 7.1% 6.7% 6.7% 16.0 0.5 6.6
9-9 10.0% 5.1% 5.1% 16.0 0.0 0.5 9.5
8-10 12.3% 2.8% 2.8% 16.0 0.3 12.0
7-11 13.9% 1.6% 1.6% 16.0 0.2 13.7
6-12 13.8% 0.9% 0.9% 16.0 0.1 13.6
5-13 12.6% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.1 12.5
4-14 9.8% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 9.8
3-15 6.5% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 6.5
2-16 3.3% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 3.3
1-17 1.2% 1.2
0-18 0.2% 0.2
Total 100% 2.8% 2.8% 0.0% 15.8 0.0 0.1 0.4 2.3 97.2 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.2%