Sacramento St.
Big Sky
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -7.3 #290
Expected Predictive Rating -7.9 #295
Pace 78.0 #19
Improvement -0.9 #230

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #265 F B- C+ B- F
Defense #296 D C C- C F

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 35% #290 0.99 #345 -5.2 #338
2 Pt. Jumpers 29% #38 0.71 #244 +2.5 #65
Three Pointers 37% #277 0.84 #351 -5.6 #334
1st FG Attempt 0.85 #359 -8.3 #359
Freethrows 18.5 #144 77% #51 14.2 #103
Second Chance 29.6% #217 1.21 #24 0.36 #99
Turnovers 15.5% #122
Total Offense -3.2 #265

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 43% #78 1.18 #207 -2.7 #275
2 Pt. Jumpers 14% #337 0.95 #363 +0.9 #128
Three Pointers 43% #117 1.05 #219 -1.7 #259
1st FG Attempt 1.09 #292 -3.6 #291
Freethrows 17.8 #188 74% #252 13.1 #208
Second Chance 31.7% #234 1.03 #166 0.33 #206
Turnovers 15.8% #224
Total Defense -4.1 #296

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -2.7% #326 2.1% #347
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -14.0% #357 4.8% #268
Possession Length 16.0 #56 16.2 #30
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.20 #104 0.23 #331
Improvement +1.8 #86 -2.7 #323

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 1.2% 2.0% 0.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.9 15.9 16.0
.500 or above 0.3% 0.8% 0.1%
.500 or above in Conference 11.2% 22.5% 6.5%
Conference Champion 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 14.9% 6.1% 18.5%
First Four1.0% 1.6% 0.8%
First Round0.8% 1.4% 0.5%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Eastern Washington (Away) - 29.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 3
Quad 20 - 20 - 5
Quad 31 - 111 - 16
Quad 46 - 58 - 21


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Tue, Nov 11 144 UC Santa Barbara L 87 - 92 31% -6  0 - 1 -7 +6 A- C C -12 C C F
 Fri, Nov 14 181 @UC Davis L 73 - 77 20% +2  0 - 2 -2 -2 F B- D -1 A D C
 Sun, Nov 16 266 Presbyterian W 64 - 62 56% -4  1 - 2 -7 -9 F A+ F +3 A+ A D-
 Tue, Nov 18 36 @UCLA L 48 - 79 2% -19  1 - 3 -15 -18 F D B +4 B+ F A+
 Fri, Nov 21 75 @California L 67 - 91 6% -18  1 - 4 -13 -5 F B B+ -7 F B+ B-
 Sat, Nov 29 132 @Pacific L 54 - 68 13% -6  1 - 5 -9 -18 F D C- +9 B- B+ B+
 Tue, Dec 2 41 @Baylor L 88 - 110 3% -7  1 - 6 -7 +13 F A+ D+ -18 F F B+
 Sat, Dec 20 142 @California Baptist L 67 - 74 15% -2  1 - 7 -3 -0 F A+ D -3 A+ F B-
 Mon, Dec 22 207 @Cal St. Northridge L 88 - 100 24% -4  1 - 8 -12 +3 F F A+ -13 F A+ F
 Thu, Jan 1 219 @Idaho St. L 84 - 97 26% -10  1 - 9 0 - 1 -13 -2 F B- C- -9 F B F
 Sat, Jan 3 217 @Weber St. L 82 - 95 25% -10  1 - 10 0 - 2 -13 +1 B- F F -13 F F C-
 Sat, Jan 10 153 @Portland St. L 69 - 96 16% -14  1 - 11 0 - 3 -23 -1 F F A+ -22 F A- F
 Thu, Jan 15 315 Northern Arizona W 83 - 69 69% +1  2 - 11 1 - 3 +2 +7 D- A+ A+ -5 D- C+ B+
 Sat, Jan 17 185 Northern Colorado W 93 - 89 OT 40% -7  3 - 11 2 - 3 -1 +5 C C+ A- -6 D B+ C
 Thu, Jan 22 183 @Idaho L 76 - 86 21% -7  3 - 12 2 - 4 -9 +1 F A+ B+ -9 F A- C+
 Sat, Jan 24 243 @Eastern Washington L 79 - 85 29%
 Thu, Jan 29 152 Montana St. L 74 - 79 33%
 Sat, Jan 31 161 Montana L 80 - 84 34%
 Mon, Feb 2 217 Weber St. L 81 - 82 46%
 Sat, Feb 7 153 Portland St. L 74 - 79 32%
 Thu, Feb 12 185 @Northern Colorado L 77 - 86 21%
 Sat, Feb 14 315 @Northern Arizona L 77 - 78 46%
 Thu, Feb 19 243 Eastern Washington W 83 - 82 51%
 Sat, Feb 21 183 Idaho L 77 - 80 40%
 Thu, Feb 26 161 @Montana L 77 - 87 18%
 Sat, Feb 28 152 @Montana St. L 71 - 82 16%
 Mon, Mar 2 219 Idaho St. L 78 - 79 46%
Totals 7 - 20 6 - 12 -7 -3 F B- C+ -4 D C C-




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Sky Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.1 1st
2nd 0.0 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.5 2nd
3rd 0.1 0.6 0.6 0.1 0.0 1.4 3rd
4th 0.1 1.3 1.4 0.2 0.0 3.1 4th
5th 0.1 2.0 3.3 0.8 0.0 6.2 5th
6th 0.2 2.2 5.4 1.9 0.1 9.7 6th
7th 0.0 0.2 3.0 7.5 3.7 0.2 14.7 7th
8th 0.0 0.6 4.4 10.6 6.2 0.8 0.0 22.5 8th
9th 0.4 3.2 10.0 13.0 7.1 1.1 0.0 34.8 9th
10th 1.0 2.7 2.6 0.7 0.1 7.1 10th
Total 1.4 5.9 13.2 18.4 21.0 17.0 12.0 6.8 2.9 1.1 0.3 0.1 Total



Big Sky Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5 36.4% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
12-6 10.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.1% 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5 0.1% 0.1
12-6 0.3% 18.6% 18.6% 14.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2
11-7 1.1% 11.2% 11.2% 15.8 0.0 0.1 1.0
10-8 2.9% 5.0% 5.0% 16.0 0.1 2.8
9-9 6.8% 3.5% 3.5% 16.0 0.2 6.6
8-10 12.0% 1.8% 1.8% 16.0 0.2 11.7
7-11 17.0% 0.8% 0.8% 16.0 0.1 16.9
6-12 21.0% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.1 20.9
5-13 18.4% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.1 18.3
4-14 13.2% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.1 13.1
3-15 5.9% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 5.9
2-16 1.4% 1.4
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 1.2% 1.2% 0.0% 15.9 98.8 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.8%