UC Davis
Big West
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating-0.9#168
Expected Predictive Rating+2.4#147
Pace68.0#218
Improvement-0.4#218

Offense
Total Offense-2.2#227
First Shot+0.5#166
After Offensive Rebound-2.7#324
Layup/Dunks-1.2#218
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.1#174
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.2#182
Freethrows+1.9#81
Improvement+0.4#146

Defense
Total Defense+1.3#127
First Shot-1.4#216
After Offensive Rebounds+2.7#44
Layups/Dunks+0.1#175
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.6#168
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.5#276
Freethrows+0.5#154
Improvement-0.8#262
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 6.2% 10.1% 5.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.5 13.1 13.6
.500 or above 67.3% 87.3% 63.9%
.500 or above in Conference 67.3% 79.7% 65.2%
Conference Champion 4.6% 8.1% 4.0%
Last Place in Conference 2.7% 1.2% 2.9%
First Four0.1% 0.0% 0.1%
First Round6.1% 10.1% 5.4%
Second Round0.4% 1.0% 0.3%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Oregon (Away) - 14.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 21 - 31 - 5
Quad 34 - 66 - 10
Quad 411 - 417 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Wed, Nov 5 149 North Dakota St. W 80-68 56%     1 - 0 +9.4 +8.2 +1.4
  Sun, Nov 9 270 @Portland L 63-67 58%     1 - 1 -7.1 -11.1 +4.0
  Fri, Nov 14 274 Sacramento St. W 77-73 78%     2 - 1 -5.2 -2.1 -3.2
  Tue, Nov 18 105 @Nevada W 75-71 22%     3 - 1 +11.3 +1.3 +9.8
  Fri, Nov 21 64 @Colorado L 79-95 12%     3 - 2 -4.2 +10.0 -14.4
  Mon, Nov 24 318 Louisiana W 77-56 85%     4 - 2 +9.1 +6.6 +4.1
  Thu, Dec 4 108 @Hawaii L 69-75 22%     4 - 3 0 - 1 +1.3 +1.8 -0.4
  Sat, Dec 13 80 @Oregon L 66-77 15%    
  Wed, Dec 17 114 Seattle L 68-69 44%    
  Sun, Dec 21 167 @Idaho St. L 65-68 39%    
  Thu, Jan 1 253 Cal St. Northridge W 79-72 75%    
  Sat, Jan 3 280 Cal St. Bakersfield W 75-66 79%    
  Thu, Jan 8 148 @UC Santa Barbara L 69-73 34%    
  Sat, Jan 10 243 @Cal Poly W 79-78 53%    
  Thu, Jan 15 303 Cal St. Fullerton W 83-73 81%    
  Sat, Jan 17 125 UC Irvine L 66-67 48%    
  Thu, Jan 22 102 UC San Diego L 70-73 40%    
  Sat, Jan 24 271 UC Riverside W 75-67 76%    
  Thu, Jan 29 253 @Cal St. Northridge W 76-75 54%    
  Sat, Jan 31 280 @Cal St. Bakersfield W 72-69 59%    
  Thu, Feb 5 148 UC Santa Barbara W 72-70 55%    
  Sat, Feb 7 243 Cal Poly W 82-75 72%    
  Thu, Feb 12 102 @UC San Diego L 67-76 21%    
  Sat, Feb 14 286 Long Beach St. W 74-65 78%    
  Thu, Feb 19 303 @Cal St. Fullerton W 80-76 64%    
  Sat, Feb 21 271 @UC Riverside W 72-70 58%    
  Thu, Feb 26 108 Hawaii L 70-72 42%    
  Thu, Mar 5 286 @Long Beach St. W 71-68 61%    
  Sat, Mar 7 125 @UC Irvine L 63-70 27%    
Projected Record 16 - 13 11 - 9




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big West Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.4 1.1 1.5 1.0 0.4 0.1 4.6 1st
2nd 0.0 0.4 1.6 3.1 2.9 1.1 0.2 0.0 9.3 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.7 2.9 4.9 3.5 1.1 0.2 13.3 3rd
4th 0.1 1.4 4.5 6.6 3.7 1.0 0.0 17.3 4th
5th 0.0 0.2 1.8 5.8 6.2 3.0 0.5 0.0 17.5 5th
6th 0.2 1.6 5.5 4.7 1.4 0.2 13.6 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 1.3 3.8 3.3 0.9 0.1 9.6 7th
8th 0.1 0.9 2.6 2.3 0.7 0.0 6.6 8th
9th 0.0 0.5 2.0 1.4 0.4 0.0 4.4 9th
10th 0.1 0.4 1.0 0.8 0.2 0.0 2.5 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.3 0.1 1.4 11th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.0 2.0 3.9 5.7 8.3 11.3 13.0 13.0 13.0 10.7 8.1 5.1 2.8 1.2 0.5 0.1 Total



Big West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1 100.0% 0.1    0.1
18-2 97.0% 0.4    0.4 0.1
17-3 86.1% 1.0    0.8 0.3 0.0
16-4 53.0% 1.5    0.7 0.6 0.1 0.0
15-5 21.7% 1.1    0.4 0.4 0.2 0.1
14-6 5.1% 0.4    0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0
13-7 0.7% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 4.6% 4.6 2.4 1.6 0.5 0.1



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
18-2 0.5% 34.1% 34.1% 12.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.3
17-3 1.2% 30.7% 30.7% 12.4 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.8
16-4 2.8% 23.7% 23.7% 12.9 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.1 0.0 2.1
15-5 5.1% 21.4% 21.4% 13.1 0.2 0.6 0.3 0.0 4.0
14-6 8.1% 14.8% 14.8% 13.5 0.1 0.5 0.5 0.1 6.9
13-7 10.7% 10.1% 10.1% 13.8 0.0 0.4 0.5 0.2 9.6
12-8 13.0% 5.4% 5.4% 13.9 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.0 12.3
11-9 13.0% 3.3% 3.3% 14.6 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.0 12.5
10-10 13.0% 2.1% 2.1% 14.5 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 12.7
9-11 11.3% 0.9% 0.9% 15.6 0.0 0.1 11.2
8-12 8.3% 0.6% 0.6% 15.9 0.0 0.0 8.2
7-13 5.7% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 5.6
6-14 3.9% 3.9
5-15 2.0% 2.0
4-16 1.0% 1.0
3-17 0.4% 0.4
2-18 0.1% 0.1
1-19 0.0% 0.0
0-20 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 6.2% 6.2% 0.0% 13.5 0.1 0.8 2.3 1.9 0.9 0.2 93.9 0.0%