UC Davis
Big West
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
Switch to All-time Team Page
Predictive Rating -1.3 180
Expected Predictive Rating +0.8 147
Pace 70.7 123
Improvement -1.0 229

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense C #183 C+ D+ D+ B+ C-
Defense C #187 C- C B- D+ D

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 36% 257 61% 109 -0.5 193
2 Pt. Jumpers 21% 172 34% 296 -0.6 212
Three Pointers 43% 133 37% 67 +3.0 83
1st FG Attempt 1.06 116 +1.9 116
Second Chance 26.8% 286 1.04 156 0.28 257
Turnovers 18.1% 261
Freethrows 0.35 54 76% 71 0.26 35
Total Offense -0.8 183

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 42% 95 58% 175 -1.9 246
2 Pt. Jumpers 16% 316 36% 97 +2.1 34
Three Pointers 42% 137 36% 268 -1.9 280
1st FG Attempt 1.05 236 -1.7 235
Second Chance 31.1% 205 0.99 121 0.31 170
Turnovers 18.6% 84
Freethrows 0.33 273 73% 207 0.24 264
Total Defense -0.5 187

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Selection -0.2 222 +0.8 320
Shot Type Accuracy +2.0 104 +0.8 214
Possession Length 16.3 77 17.6 232
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.18 138 0.19 231
Improvement -0.7 #230 -0.2 #206

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 4% 6% 4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 13.5 13.3 13.7
.500 or above 91% 99% 88%
.500 or above in Conference 90% 98% 87%
Conference Champion 1% 3% 0%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0%
First Four0% 0% 0%
First Round4% 6% 4%
Second Round0% 0% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%

Next Game: UC San Diego (Away) - 31.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b1 - 11 - 1
Quad 21 - 32 - 4
Quad 36 - 68 - 11
Quad 49 - 317 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Wed, Nov 5 146 North Dakota St. W 80 - 68 53% +2  51% 1 - 0 B +10 B- +4 A A F B+ +6 A+ D- C+
 Sun, Nov 9 206 @Portland L 63 - 67 44% +0  38% 1 - 1 C- -4 F -11 F B- F B+ +7 B B+ A
 Fri, Nov 14 254 Sacramento St. W 77 - 73 75% -2  31% 2 - 1 C- -4 D- -7 D- D+ D+ C+ +2 C C- B+
 Tue, Nov 18 66 @Nevada W 75 - 71 12% -0  35% 3 - 1 A- +15 C -0 A+ F F A+ +15 C+ A+ A+
 Fri, Nov 21 77 @Colorado L 79 - 95 14% -6  5% 3 - 2 D+ -6 B +7 B- A+ C- F -13 F D+ C+
 Mon, Nov 24 290 Louisiana W 77 - 56 81% +8  98% 4 - 2 B +11 C+ +3 A- D+ B A- +9 B+ B A-
 Thu, Dec 4 102 @Hawaii L 69 - 75 19% -6  3% 4 - 3 0 - 1 C+ +2 C -0 C D B- C+ +2 F+ C+ B
 Sat, Dec 13 80 @Oregon L 62 - 104 15% -30  0% 4 - 4 F -32 F -11 F+ D D F -20 F F C
 Wed, Dec 17 132 Seattle L 78 - 79 50% -4  14% 4 - 5 C- -2 B- +4 A+ F B+ D -6 C- F B
 Sun, Dec 21 250 @Idaho St. W 93 - 83 53% +8  90% 5 - 5 B +8 A+ +20 A+ C+ A+ F -11 F C- C-
 Thu, Jan 1 186 Cal St. Northridge W 89 - 80 63% +6  76% 6 - 5 1 - 1 C+ +4 B- +4 A+ F F+ C +0 C+ B B+
 Sat, Jan 3 322 Cal St. Bakersfield L 79 - 81 86% +2  67% 6 - 6 1 - 2 F+ -15 D+ -4 C+ C- D F -11 D D- F
 Thu, Jan 8 133 @UC Santa Barbara W 93 - 86 28% -3  42% 7 - 6 2 - 2 B+ +12 A+ +15 A B+ B D+ -4 F A+ F
 Sat, Jan 10 265 @Cal Poly L 78 - 84 56% +6  88% 7 - 7 2 - 3 D -9 D+ -4 D- D- B- D+ -5 B- C- F
 Thu, Jan 15 210 Cal St. Fullerton W 74 - 69 67% +9  98% 8 - 7 3 - 3 C -1 D- -7 D+ B F B+ +6 A- D+ A-
 Sat, Jan 17 119 UC Irvine W 75 - 72 45% +2  70% 9 - 7 4 - 3 C+ +3 B +5 D+ A B+ C- -2 D C B+
 Thu, Jan 22 139 UC San Diego L 74 - 80 52% -1  36% 9 - 8 4 - 4 D+ -8 D -5 D D- B- C- -2 D- B A
 Sat, Jan 24 293 UC Riverside W 74 - 66 81% +10  98% 10 - 8 5 - 4 C- -3 D -4 B- D F+ C+ +2 B F C
 Thu, Jan 29 186 @Cal St. Northridge L 78 - 94 40% -4  44% 10 - 9 5 - 5 F+ -15 D- -7 D+ D C- D -6 F A D+
 Sat, Jan 31 322 @Cal St. Bakersfield W 80 - 72 71% +0  50% 11 - 9 6 - 5 C +1 C+ +2 D B- B+ C -1 F D+ B
 Thu, Feb 5 133 UC Santa Barbara W 85 - 75 50% +5  78% 12 - 9 7 - 5 B +9 A +13 A+ F B C- -3 C+ C- B-
 Sat, Feb 7 265 Cal Poly W 67 - 58 77% -2  25% 13 - 9 8 - 5 C +0 F -13 F+ F+ F A+ +13 A+ B A+
 Thu, Feb 12 139 @UC San Diego L 71 - 76 31%
 Sat, Feb 14 251 Long Beach St. W 79 - 72 73%
 Thu, Feb 19 210 @Cal St. Fullerton L 79 - 80 44%
 Sat, Feb 21 293 @UC Riverside W 76 - 73 62%
 Thu, Feb 26 102 Hawaii L 72 - 75 38%
 Thu, Mar 5 251 @Long Beach St. W 76 - 75 52%
 Sat, Mar 7 119 @UC Irvine L 68 - 75 25%
Totals 16 - 13 11 - 9 -1 C -1 C+ D+ D+ C +0 C- C B-



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings C C+ D+ B B- 36% 21% 43% C- C+ D+ C D+ D+ B B B+ C C B- D+ C- 42% 16% 42% D C- C C+ C B- D+ C D+
1.07 61% 34% 37% +2 0 1.06 27% 1.0 .28 18% .35 76% .26 1.09 58% 36% 36% +1 +1 1.05 31% 1.0 .31 19% .33 73% .25
Nov
5		 North Dakota St. B- B+ F A+ A- 58% 9% 33% A+ A A+ C+ A F A D- B+ B+ C+ B A+ A+ 46% 17% 37% F A+ F B+ D- C+ B- F D
1.16 69% 25% 47% +12 +3 1.31 44% 0.9 .40 26% .33 71% .24 0.99 56% 33% 10% -15 +1 0.74 47% 0.9 .40 17% .25 93% .23
Nov
9		 Portland F F A+ F F 25% 16% 59% C- F B C- B- F C B- C+ B+ A- A+ D+ B+ 38% 19% 43% C+ B D+ A+ B+ A F C+ F
0.91 38% 50% 23% -12 0 0.76 38% 1.0 .38 23% .30 75% .22 0.96 50% 22% 35% -5 0 0.91 32% 0.8 .27 24% .42 73% .30
Nov
14		 Sacramento St. D- C+ A- F F+ 41% 8% 51% B- D- F+ A- D+ D+ A+ B A+ C+ B C B B- 52% 22% 26% F C D B- C- B+ D+ D D
1.06 60% 50% 24% -6 +2 0.94 26% 1.3 .34 18% .45 78% .35 1.01 50% 36% 31% -6 +1 0.92 31% 1.1 .34 19% .36 81% .29
Nov
18		 Nevada C A B A+ A+ 29% 17% 54% C A+ F F F F A+ B- A+ A+ B+ A+ F B- 46% 17% 37% F C+ A A+ A+ A+ F B F
1.01 67% 43% 45% +13 0 1.27 15% 0.8 .11 27% .50 74% .37 0.96 48% 13% 47% -2 +1 1.00 27% 0.4 .12 23% .51 72% .37
Nov
21		 Colorado B A+ F F C+ 41% 19% 41% B B- D+ A+ A+ C- F A+ F+ F D B+ F F 51% 22% 27% D+ F A- F D+ C+ D+ F D-
1.13 73% 30% 27% 0 0 1.04 24% 2.0 .48 17% .16 100% .16 1.36 68% 33% 60% +15 +1 1.33 27% 1.3 .35 14% .35 86% .30
Nov
24		 Louisiana C+ A A- A- A 35% 23% 43% D- A- F A+ D+ B A+ D A+ A- F A B B 12% 36% 52% A B+ D+ A+ B A- C+ D C
1.18 71% 44% 41% +11 0 1.23 22% 1.3 .30 15% .58 69% .40 0.86 67% 28% 31% -5 -4 0.84 29% 0.6 .17 21% .21 73% .16
Dec
4		 Hawaii C D+ B+ F+ C+ 42% 30% 28% D- C D- C D B- B B B+ C+ F A+ F F 49% 15% 37% C- F+ A+ F C+ B F A+ F
0.97 50% 44% 27% -5 -1 0.91 21% 1.0 .21 15% .35 71% .25 1.05 70% 17% 40% +6 +2 1.17 17% 1.8 .31 21% .55 58% .32
Dec
13		 Oregon F F C+ F F+ 27% 23% 50% C F+ F B D D B+ B A- F F+ F F F 43% 16% 41% C- F F F F C F D+ F
0.86 43% 42% 27% -8 -1 0.83 19% 1.0 .19 19% .33 79% .26 1.44 67% 50% 45% +12 +1 1.29 50% 1.6 .79 17% .45 74% .33
Dec
17		 Seattle B- F+ A+ A+ A+ 38% 15% 46% B- A+ F F F B+ C+ D+ C D B- B+ F C- 41% 19% 41% C+ C- F C- F B C+ D- C
1.06 45% 75% 46% +9 +1 1.21 16% 0.4 .06 18% .31 68% .21 1.07 55% 30% 41% +1 0 1.06 38% 0.9 .33 20% .27 75% .20
Dec
21		 Idaho St. A+ A+ A F A+ 45% 25% 29% C- A+ D A C+ A+ A- A+ A+ F C F F F 35% 8% 58% D F D B- C- C- F D+ F
1.41 91% 54% 27% +16 0 1.33 26% 1.3 .35 9% .38 91% .35 1.26 57% 67% 48% +14 +1 1.33 37% 0.9 .33 17% .60 76% .46
Jan
1		 Cal St. Northridge B- A C- A+ A+ 24% 29% 47% F A+ D F F F+ C- B- C C C A+ C+ B- 55% 7% 38% F C+ C- A B B+ F B F+
1.16 69% 38% 50% +14 -2 1.25 22% 0.9 .19 20% .29 78% .23 1.05 58% 0% 33% -3 +3 1.02 33% 0.8 .26 21% .43 62% .26
Jan
3		 Cal St. Bakersfield D+ F C- A+ C+ 34% 11% 55% C+ C+ D C+ C- D A+ B- A+ F C+ D+ C- D 36% 25% 40% D- D C- F D- F F+ F F
1.10 47% 40% 42% +3 +1 1.09 33% 1.1 .36 20% .62 75% .47 1.13 53% 38% 33% -2 -1 0.96 33% 1.2 .39 14% .42 85% .36
Jan
8		 UC Santa Barbara A+ A+ D+ A A+ 22% 22% 57% D- A C A+ B+ B B A+ A D+ D- B F F 37% 18% 45% C F A+ C- A+ F F A+ D+
1.31 91% 36% 41% +13 -1 1.25 27% 1.4 .37 15% .40 83% .33 1.21 68% 33% 52% +15 0 1.33 14% 1.0 .14 13% .40 64% .26
Jan
10		 Cal Poly D+ D F B+ D+ 20% 33% 47% F D- F B+ D- B- B- A+ A- D+ D+ F A- C+ 28% 11% 60% B+ B- A+ F C- F F F F
1.06 55% 28% 38% -1 -3 0.95 23% 1.2 .28 15% .32 85% .27 1.14 60% 50% 28% -3 0 0.96 20% 1.6 .31 14% .44 93% .41
Jan
15		 Cal St. Fullerton D- C+ C+ F D- 47% 11% 42% B+ D+ A- C- B F A+ D A+ B+ A- A+ D+ A 40% 17% 42% D+ A- D+ D+ D+ A- F A+ F
0.99 62% 40% 26% -3 +2 1.00 38% 1.0 .38 27% .57 68% .39 0.93 48% 11% 36% -7 +1 0.88 28% 1.0 .28 20% .54 59% .32
Jan
17		 UC Irvine B D F C D+ 28% 21% 51% C- D+ C A+ A B+ A+ D- A+ C- B- D F+ D 46% 28% 26% C- D C+ C- C B+ A- F D+
1.09 46% 20% 33% -8 -1 0.85 33% 1.2 .41 15% .51 67% .34 1.05 52% 43% 38% 0 0 1.02 29% 1.1 .32 20% .24 100% .24
Jan
22		 UC San Diego D F D A+ D- 38% 16% 47% B- D D D- D- B- B+ D+ B C- F+ F B D- 45% 8% 47% D D- F A+ B A F D+ F
0.99 27% 33% 41% -8 +1 0.88 24% 0.9 .22 15% .33 67% .22 1.08 68% 75% 30% +5 +2 1.16 34% 0.6 .22 22% .46 70% .33
Jan
24		 UC Riverside D B- F A+ B 43% 23% 34% C- B- D D D F+ A+ C- A C+ A B B A 48% 6% 46% F B C F F C D A+ B
1.08 63% 30% 47% +7 0 1.16 26% 0.9 .22 19% .45 68% .31 0.96 46% 33% 30% -9 +3 0.90 28% 1.3 .36 19% .34 53% .18
Jan
29		 Cal St. Northridge D- D+ F A- C- 35% 25% 40% D+ D+ D+ D D C- A- F C+ D F A+ D- F 48% 8% 43% F+ F A- A- A D+ D+ A+ B-
0.98 55% 21% 39% -2 -1 0.96 23% 1.1 .26 16% .37 64% .24 1.18 76% 20% 38% +10 +2 1.27 26% 0.8 .21 16% .34 52% .18
Jan
31		 Cal St. Bakersfield C+ C C D- D+ 29% 29% 42% F D D- A+ B- B+ A+ A A+ C B- D- F F 39% 30% 30% D+ F B+ F D+ B C- B C
1.15 57% 43% 30% -1 -2 0.96 31% 1.4 .44 14% .52 81% .42 1.03 50% 43% 43% +2 -1 1.04 28% 1.3 .34 22% .37 70% .26
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Feb
5		 UC Santa Barbara A B+ F A+ A+ 50% 14% 36% A- A+ C F F B A+ A+ A+ C- B+ F D B+ 68% 2% 30% F C+ F A C- B- F C+ F
1.31 68% 17% 56% +14 +2 1.34 28% 0.4 .12 15% .48 88% .42 1.16 53% 100% 38% 0 +5 1.11 42% 0.8 .33 20% .41 76% .31
Feb
7		 Cal Poly F C F F+ F 42% 15% 44% C+ F+ B F F+ F B- A+ A A+ A+ F A A+ 41% 2% 57% D- A+ D+ A+ B A+ B- F D
0.97 60% 14% 29% -6 +1 0.92 38% 0.7 .25 22% .31 88% .28 0.84 32% 100% 27% -15 +3 0.76 33% 0.7 .23 27% .28 100% .28



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big West Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.6 0.4 1.1 1st
2nd 0.2 2.0 2.1 0.2 4.5 2nd
3rd 0.4 5.2 7.3 1.5 0.0 14.4 3rd
4th 0.7 9.0 14.9 4.1 0.1 28.9 4th
5th 0.2 5.9 13.5 4.4 0.1 24.2 5th
6th 0.1 2.5 10.4 3.8 0.2 16.9 6th
7th 0.6 4.6 3.1 0.2 8.5 7th
8th 0.7 0.9 0.1 1.6 8th
9th 0.1 0.1 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
Total 1.5 8.2 20.1 26.9 24.9 13.6 4.3 0.7 Total



Big West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5 66.2% 0.4    0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0
14-6 13.6% 0.6    0.0 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0
13-7 1.0% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 1.1% 1.1 0.1 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5 0.7% 16.9% 16.9% 12.6 0.0 0.1 0.5
14-6 4.3% 15.5% 15.5% 12.9 0.2 0.4 0.1 3.6
13-7 13.6% 7.4% 7.4% 13.3 0.0 0.6 0.4 12.6
12-8 24.9% 5.4% 5.4% 13.6 0.0 0.5 0.7 0.1 23.5
11-9 26.9% 3.0% 3.0% 13.9 0.2 0.5 0.1 26.1
10-10 20.1% 1.6% 1.6% 14.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 19.7
9-11 8.2% 0.5% 0.5% 15.0 0.0 8.2
8-12 1.5% 1.4% 1.4% 15.5 0.0 0.0 1.4
7-13
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 4.3% 4.3% 0.0% 13.5 95.7 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.4%
Lose Out 1.0%