Nevada
Mountain West
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +7.5 #80
Expected Predictive Rating +9.4 #63
Pace 64.1 #308
Improvement +3.0 #52

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #69 C B A+ A+ D
Defense #105 B C C C- C

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 41% #127 1.04 #314 -1.2 #230
2 Pt. Jumpers 29% #40 0.76 #165 +3.2 #45
Three Pointers 31% #351 1.25 #3 -1.7 #242
1st FG Attempt 1.02 #167 +0.3 #167
Freethrows 21.8 #15 77% #25 16.8 #8
Second Chance 34.9% #62 1.06 #152 0.37 #75
Turnovers 12.7% #14
Total Offense +5.0 #69

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 38% #212 1.04 #47 +2.7 #87
2 Pt. Jumpers 19% #211 0.73 #134 +0.7 #137
Three Pointers 43% #116 0.96 #108 +0.1 #175
1st FG Attempt 0.95 #73 +3.5 #73
Freethrows 19.3 #269 72% #147 13.8 #259
Second Chance 27.6% #74 1.16 #308 0.32 #183
Turnovers 16.8% #162
Total Defense +2.4 #105

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -1.8% #296 0.2% #184
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 2.4% #141 -7.1% #62
Possession Length 17.1 #153 18.5 #328
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.22 #59 0.16 #130
Improvement +1.5 #102 +1.5 #92

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 10.0% 15.4% 8.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 2.4% 5.7% 1.3%
Average Seed 10.9 10.6 11.0
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 99.9%
.500 or above in Conference 96.9% 99.7% 95.9%
Conference Champion 9.7% 20.7% 5.6%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four1.9% 4.0% 1.1%
First Round8.8% 13.0% 7.3%
Second Round2.2% 3.5% 1.6%
Sweet Sixteen0.4% 0.4% 0.3%
Elite Eight0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: New Mexico (Away) - 27.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b1 - 41 - 5
Quad 25 - 46 - 9
Quad 310 - 116 - 10
Quad 46 - 122 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Tue, Nov 4 228 Louisiana Tech W 77 - 50 90% +16  1 - 0 +20 +14 C A+ B +10 A+ C+ A
 Sat, Nov 8 132 Pacific W 78 - 77 80% +2  2 - 0 -0 +7 C A- B -7 D+ A+ F
 Wed, Nov 12 146 Southern Illinois W 86 - 81 OT 82% -1  3 - 0 +3 +5 F D- A+ -3 B A+ F
 Sat, Nov 15 54 @Santa Clara L 83 - 98 28% -13  3 - 1 -2 +16 A F A+ -17 F F C
 Tue, Nov 18 181 UC Davis L 71 - 75 87% +0  3 - 2 -8 -8 D F F +0 F A+ A+
 Sat, Nov 22 144 UC Santa Barbara W 77 - 64 82% +8  4 - 2 +11 +2 C F D +10 A+ D- A+
 Thu, Nov 27 47 Washington L 66 - 83 37% -7  4 - 3 -6 -4 F C A -2 D+ A+ A+
 Fri, Nov 28 101 San Francisco W 81 - 65 61% +5  5 - 3 +21 +18 A C A+ +5 A+ F A+
 Tue, Dec 2 109 UC San Diego W 76 - 70 74% +4  6 - 3 +7 +10 B+ A- A -2 A+ F F
 Sun, Dec 7 141 @Washington St. W 78 - 64 63% +5  7 - 3 +18 +14 F A+ A+ +6 A+ C- A+
 Sat, Dec 13 118 Duquesne W 78 - 75 77% +5  8 - 3 +3 +8 D A+ A+ -5 A+ F C+
 Sat, Dec 20 66 Boise St. W 81 - 66 58% +10  9 - 3 1 - 0 +20 +22 A+ B- A+ +1 C- A A+
 Tue, Dec 30 96 @Colorado St. W 75 - 62 46% +4  10 - 3 2 - 0 +21 +10 F A+ A +13 A+ D D+
 Sat, Jan 3 143 @Fresno St. W 66 - 65 63% -2  11 - 3 3 - 0 +5 +3 D+ B+ A +2 C F A+
 Tue, Jan 6 46 San Diego St. L 68 - 73 47% +2  11 - 4 3 - 1 +3 +7 F A+ A+ -5 A- F A
 Sat, Jan 10 108 Wyoming W 92 - 83 73% +4  12 - 4 4 - 1 +10 +31 A+ A+ A -20 F F F
 Wed, Jan 14 39 @Utah St. L 62 - 71 21% -3  12 - 5 4 - 2 +7 -1 B- F C +7 B+ A+ B-
 Sat, Jan 17 340 @Air Force W 81 - 66 92% +10  13 - 5 5 - 2 +7 +9 A+ D- F -2 F A+ C
 Tue, Jan 20 238 San Jose St. W 87 - 54 91% +16  14 - 5 6 - 2 +26 +21 C+ A- A+ +9 A+ A F
 Sat, Jan 24 51 @New Mexico L 71 - 77 27%
 Tue, Jan 27 79 Grand Canyon W 72 - 69 61%
 Fri, Jan 30 114 UNLV W 79 - 72 74%
 Tue, Feb 3 66 @Boise St. L 68 - 72 36%
 Sat, Feb 7 143 Fresno St. W 76 - 67 81%
 Sat, Feb 14 46 @San Diego St. L 68 - 75 27%
 Tue, Feb 17 238 @San Jose St. W 75 - 66 79%
 Sat, Feb 21 39 Utah St. L 74 - 76 41%
 Tue, Feb 24 51 New Mexico L 74 - 75 48%
 Sat, Feb 28 114 @UNLV W 76 - 75 54%
 Tue, Mar 3 108 @Wyoming W 73 - 72 51%
 Sat, Mar 7 340 Air Force W 78 - 56 98%
Totals 21 - 10 13 - 7 +7 +5 C B A+ +2 B C C




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mountain West Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 1.1 3.8 3.6 1.0 0.2 9.7 1st
2nd 0.0 1.6 6.9 5.9 1.0 0.0 15.5 2nd
3rd 0.0 1.1 8.4 8.0 1.1 0.0 18.5 3rd
4th 0.0 0.9 7.5 9.6 1.8 0.0 19.8 4th
5th 0.0 0.6 5.6 9.6 2.3 0.0 18.2 5th
6th 0.2 2.6 5.6 1.9 0.1 10.4 6th
7th 0.1 0.9 2.9 1.3 0.0 5.2 7th
8th 0.0 0.2 1.1 0.8 0.1 2.2 8th
9th 0.0 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.5 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 11th
12th 12th
Total 0.1 0.6 2.4 7.0 13.4 20.1 21.9 17.8 10.8 4.7 1.1 0.2 Total



Mountain West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2 100.0% 0.2    0.2 0.0
17-3 95.9% 1.0    0.9 0.2
16-4 77.2% 3.6    2.0 1.4 0.2
15-5 35.3% 3.8    1.0 1.8 0.9 0.1
14-6 6.0% 1.1    0.1 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.1
13-7 0.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 9.7% 9.7 4.1 3.6 1.5 0.5 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2 0.2% 75.0% 37.5% 37.5% 8.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 60.0%
17-3 1.1% 55.0% 21.1% 33.9% 10.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.5 43.0%
16-4 4.7% 32.3% 17.3% 15.0% 10.5 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.0 0.0 3.2 18.2%
15-5 10.8% 19.8% 13.4% 6.4% 10.8 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.7 0.1 8.6 7.4%
14-6 17.8% 11.8% 10.2% 1.6% 11.0 0.0 0.2 1.8 0.1 15.7 1.8%
13-7 21.9% 8.1% 7.5% 0.6% 11.1 0.1 1.5 0.2 20.2 0.6%
12-8 20.1% 5.6% 5.5% 0.1% 11.3 0.0 0.8 0.3 0.0 19.0 0.1%
11-9 13.4% 3.3% 3.3% 11.4 0.3 0.2 0.0 13.0
10-10 7.0% 2.0% 2.0% 11.4 0.1 0.1 0.0 6.9
9-11 2.4% 1.4% 1.4% 11.9 0.0 0.0 2.4
8-12 0.6% 0.9% 0.9% 13.0 0.0 0.6
7-13 0.1% 0.1
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 10.0% 7.7% 2.3% 10.9 90.0 2.4%