Liberty
Conference USA
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating+4.9#102
Expected Predictive Rating+5.8#95
Pace63.8#321
Improvement-2.7#331

Offense
Total Offense+3.6#93
First Shot+5.4#49
After Offensive Rebound-1.8#295
Layup/Dunks+9.8#3
2 Pt Jumpshots-4.6#363
3 Pt Jumpshots+5.3#36
Freethrows-5.1#365
Improvement-3.9#361

Defense
Total Defense+1.4#126
First Shot+3.0#87
After Offensive Rebounds-1.6#300
Layups/Dunks+1.5#122
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.0#308
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.6#115
Freethrows+1.8#71
Improvement+1.2#108
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 28.2% 31.1% 23.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Average Seed 12.3 12.2 12.6
.500 or above 96.2% 98.3% 92.6%
.500 or above in Conference 94.1% 97.1% 88.8%
Conference Champion 41.7% 49.9% 27.4%
Last Place in Conference 0.3% 0.1% 0.6%
First Four0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
First Round28.1% 31.1% 23.1%
Second Round4.2% 5.0% 3.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.7% 0.8% 0.5%
Elite Eight0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Florida International (Away) - 63.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 13 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b1 - 01 - 1
Quad 22 - 22 - 3
Quad 39 - 511 - 8
Quad 410 - 121 - 10


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Fri, Nov 7 169 College of Charleston W 90-75 79%     1 - 0 +11.4 +25.4 -12.3
  Sun, Nov 9 114 Florida Atlantic W 88-68 67%     2 - 0 +20.4 +16.7 +4.4
  Mon, Nov 24 178 Vermont W 79-73 73%     3 - 0 +4.7 +5.8 -0.9
  Tue, Nov 25 128 Towson L 69-72 61%     3 - 1 -0.8 +5.7 -6.8
  Wed, Nov 26 108 Bradley L 64-74 54%     3 - 2 -6.1 +0.0 -7.0
  Sat, Dec 6 364 Coppin St. W 92-50 99%     4 - 2 +19.8 +12.1 +9.0
  Wed, Dec 10 28 @North Carolina St. L 45-85 12%     4 - 3 -22.2 -18.9 -4.9
  Sat, Dec 20 68 @Dayton W 64-61 28%     5 - 3 +14.1 +8.9 +5.7
  Sun, Dec 28 182 @Florida International W 77-74 63%    
  Fri, Jan 2 152 Kennesaw St. W 81-74 76%    
  Sun, Jan 4 236 Jacksonville St. W 73-61 88%    
  Thu, Jan 8 187 @Louisiana Tech W 66-62 64%    
  Sat, Jan 10 122 @Sam Houston St. L 76-77 48%    
  Thu, Jan 15 127 New Mexico St. W 72-66 71%    
  Sat, Jan 17 202 UTEP W 73-62 84%    
  Wed, Jan 21 145 @Western Kentucky W 76-75 53%    
  Sat, Jan 24 284 Delaware W 76-61 91%    
  Wed, Jan 28 158 @Middle Tennessee W 72-70 57%    
  Wed, Feb 4 284 @Delaware W 73-64 78%    
  Sat, Feb 7 254 Missouri St. W 73-60 88%    
  Wed, Feb 11 127 @New Mexico St. L 69-70 50%    
  Sat, Feb 14 202 @UTEP W 70-65 66%    
  Thu, Feb 19 182 Florida International W 80-71 80%    
  Sat, Feb 21 145 Western Kentucky W 79-72 73%    
  Thu, Feb 26 152 @Kennesaw St. W 78-77 55%    
  Sat, Feb 28 236 @Jacksonville St. W 70-64 71%    
  Thu, Mar 5 187 Louisiana Tech W 69-59 81%    
  Sat, Mar 7 122 Sam Houston St. W 79-74 69%    
Projected Record 19 - 9 14 - 6




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference USA Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.7 3.7 8.2 10.4 9.0 6.2 2.7 0.7 41.7 1st
2nd 0.0 0.8 3.8 6.9 5.5 2.2 0.5 0.0 19.8 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.5 3.2 5.3 3.2 0.8 0.1 13.0 3rd
4th 0.0 0.2 2.0 4.0 2.0 0.4 0.0 8.6 4th
5th 0.1 1.1 2.8 1.7 0.2 0.0 5.9 5th
6th 0.0 0.5 1.9 1.4 0.2 4.0 6th
7th 0.0 0.2 1.2 1.2 0.2 0.0 2.8 7th
8th 0.1 0.7 0.9 0.3 0.0 2.0 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.6 0.2 0.0 1.2 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.6 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 12th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.8 1.7 2.9 4.6 7.0 10.0 12.0 14.2 14.4 12.7 9.5 6.2 2.7 0.7 Total



Conference USA Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.7    0.7
19-1 100.0% 2.7    2.7 0.0
18-2 99.2% 6.2    6.0 0.2
17-3 94.5% 9.0    8.0 1.0 0.0
16-4 81.8% 10.4    7.6 2.5 0.2
15-5 56.6% 8.2    4.5 2.9 0.7 0.0
14-6 26.3% 3.7    1.1 1.6 0.9 0.2 0.0
13-7 6.1% 0.7    0.1 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.5% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 41.7% 41.7 30.7 8.6 2.0 0.3 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.7% 64.3% 57.0% 7.2% 9.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3 16.8%
19-1 2.7% 56.8% 55.7% 1.1% 11.2 0.0 0.1 1.0 0.4 0.0 1.2 2.5%
18-2 6.2% 47.6% 47.5% 0.1% 11.6 0.0 1.1 1.7 0.1 3.3 0.1%
17-3 9.5% 42.5% 42.4% 0.0% 12.0 0.7 2.8 0.5 5.5 0.1%
16-4 12.7% 37.0% 37.0% 12.2 0.3 3.1 1.2 0.0 8.0
15-5 14.4% 31.7% 31.7% 12.5 0.1 2.3 2.0 0.1 9.9
14-6 14.2% 27.3% 27.3% 12.7 0.0 1.5 2.1 0.2 10.3
13-7 12.0% 22.5% 22.5% 12.9 0.0 0.7 1.6 0.4 0.0 9.3
12-8 10.0% 17.6% 17.6% 13.1 0.3 1.0 0.5 0.0 8.2
11-9 7.0% 12.7% 12.7% 13.4 0.1 0.5 0.3 0.0 6.1
10-10 4.6% 8.2% 8.2% 13.6 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.0 4.2
9-11 2.9% 5.8% 5.8% 14.4 0.0 0.1 0.1 2.7
8-12 1.7% 5.1% 5.1% 14.9 0.0 0.1 0.0 1.6
7-13 0.8% 3.0% 3.0% 15.9 0.0 0.0 0.8
6-14 0.3% 4.1% 4.1% 16.0 0.0 0.3
5-15 0.2% 5.0% 5.0% 16.0 0.0 0.2
4-16 0.0% 0.0
3-17 0.0% 0.0
2-18 0.0% 0.0
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 28.2% 28.1% 0.1% 12.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 3.3 13.0 9.3 1.8 0.2 0.0 71.8 0.1%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.4% 100.0% 8.7 0.8 5.6 9.5 16.7 9.5 11.9 22.2 23.0 0.8
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.1% 28.1% 10.7 9.4 18.8
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.1% 11.9% 11.2 9.5 2.4