Missouri St.
Conference USA
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating-5.2#254
Expected Predictive Rating-5.2#247
Pace61.3#356
Improvement+1.0#114

Offense
Total Offense-4.1#279
First Shot-4.7#310
After Offensive Rebound+0.6#142
Layup/Dunks-1.3#232
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.6#271
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.0#251
Freethrows+0.3#150
Improvement-0.2#196

Defense
Total Defense-1.2#206
First Shot-0.8#196
After Offensive Rebounds-0.3#218
Layups/Dunks+3.0#73
2 Pt Jumpshots-3.6#354
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.1#194
Freethrows-0.2#190
Improvement+1.2#106
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 1.1% 1.5% 0.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.8 14.7 15.1
.500 or above 10.4% 16.6% 5.5%
.500 or above in Conference 19.0% 28.7% 11.4%
Conference Champion 0.7% 1.2% 0.2%
Last Place in Conference 25.4% 12.0% 35.8%
First Four0.3% 0.3% 0.3%
First Round1.0% 1.4% 0.6%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Delaware (Away) - 43.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 20 - 40 - 5
Quad 33 - 93 - 14
Quad 47 - 511 - 19


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Tue, Nov 11 136 Arkansas St. L 85-86 35%     0 - 1 -2.3 -0.2 -2.0
  Sat, Nov 15 167 @Texas Arlington L 49-67 23%     0 - 2 -15.6 -18.1 +2.0
  Sat, Nov 22 191 UT Rio Grande Valley W 74-67 49%     1 - 2 +2.0 +7.8 -5.0
  Mon, Nov 24 206 LIU Brooklyn L 61-75 53%     1 - 3 -19.9 -8.0 -13.5
  Sat, Dec 6 92 @Tulsa L 74-98 10%     1 - 4 -14.9 +5.7 -21.7
  Fri, Dec 12 97 @Xavier L 57-75 10%     1 - 5 -9.5 -5.0 -6.4
  Tue, Dec 16 303 Oral Roberts W 63-62 71%     2 - 5 -10.0 -9.2 -0.7
  Tue, Dec 23 229 Lindenwood W 70-65 57%     3 - 5 -2.1 -3.6 +1.5
  Mon, Dec 29 284 @Delaware L 64-66 44%    
  Fri, Jan 2 202 UTEP W 64-63 52%    
  Sun, Jan 4 127 New Mexico St. L 64-68 34%    
  Wed, Jan 7 152 @Kennesaw St. L 68-77 21%    
  Sat, Jan 10 182 Florida International L 71-72 47%    
  Wed, Jan 14 145 @Western Kentucky L 67-76 20%    
  Sat, Jan 17 158 @Middle Tennessee L 63-71 22%    
  Thu, Jan 22 127 @New Mexico St. L 61-71 18%    
  Sat, Jan 24 202 @UTEP L 61-67 32%    
  Wed, Jan 28 122 Sam Houston St. L 70-75 33%    
  Sat, Jan 31 236 Jacksonville St. W 65-63 58%    
  Sat, Feb 7 102 @Liberty L 60-73 12%    
  Thu, Feb 12 187 Louisiana Tech L 60-61 49%    
  Sat, Feb 14 284 Delaware W 67-63 65%    
  Wed, Feb 18 152 Kennesaw St. L 71-74 40%    
  Sat, Feb 21 182 @Florida International L 68-75 28%    
  Thu, Feb 26 187 @Louisiana Tech L 58-64 28%    
  Sat, Feb 28 122 @Sam Houston St. L 67-78 17%    
  Thu, Mar 5 145 Western Kentucky L 70-73 39%    
  Sat, Mar 7 158 Middle Tennessee L 66-68 42%    
Projected Record 10 - 18 7 - 13




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference USA Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.7 1st
2nd 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0 1.5 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.3 1.0 0.8 0.2 0.0 2.4 3rd
4th 0.0 0.4 1.5 1.3 0.3 0.0 3.4 4th
5th 0.0 0.3 1.8 2.2 0.6 0.0 0.0 4.8 5th
6th 0.0 0.3 2.0 2.9 1.0 0.1 6.3 6th
7th 0.2 1.9 4.1 1.9 0.1 8.2 7th
8th 0.0 0.2 1.8 5.1 2.8 0.4 0.0 10.4 8th
9th 0.0 0.3 2.2 5.4 4.3 0.7 0.0 13.0 9th
10th 0.0 0.7 2.8 5.8 4.6 1.1 0.0 15.0 10th
11th 0.0 0.2 1.4 4.2 6.1 4.3 1.2 0.1 17.4 11th
12th 0.2 1.1 3.0 4.6 4.6 2.7 0.7 0.1 0.0 17.0 12th
Total 0.2 1.1 3.2 6.0 9.5 11.8 13.1 13.2 12.8 10.0 7.3 5.2 3.2 1.7 0.9 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 Total



Conference USA Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2 100.0% 0.0    0.0
17-3 94.7% 0.1    0.1 0.0
16-4 77.8% 0.1    0.1 0.0
15-5 43.8% 0.2    0.1 0.1 0.0
14-6 21.4% 0.2    0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
13-7 4.2% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.5% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 0.7% 0.7 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2 0.0% 0.0
17-3 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.1
16-4 0.2% 15.6% 15.6% 13.3 0.0 0.0 0.1
15-5 0.4% 10.9% 10.9% 13.4 0.0 0.0 0.4
14-6 0.9% 11.7% 11.7% 13.9 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.8
13-7 1.7% 8.2% 8.2% 14.3 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 1.6
12-8 3.2% 4.8% 4.8% 14.6 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 3.0
11-9 5.2% 3.2% 3.2% 14.9 0.0 0.1 0.0 5.0
10-10 7.3% 1.5% 1.5% 15.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 7.2
9-11 10.0% 0.9% 0.9% 15.8 0.0 0.1 9.9
8-12 12.8% 0.8% 0.8% 16.0 0.1 12.7
7-13 13.2% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.1 13.2
6-14 13.1% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 13.1
5-15 11.8% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 11.8
4-16 9.5% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 9.5
3-17 6.0% 6.0
2-18 3.2% 3.2
1-19 1.1% 1.1
0-20 0.2% 0.2
Total 100% 1.1% 1.1% 0.0% 14.8 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.3 98.9 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.2%