Missouri St.
Conference USA
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating-4.5#242
Expected Predictive Rating-10.0#309
Pace61.3#354
Improvement-0.3#212

Offense
Total Offense-3.5#259
First Shot-2.7#252
After Offensive Rebound-0.8#223
Layup/Dunks-1.5#234
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.7#268
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.6#287
Freethrows+4.1#19
Improvement+0.3#157

Defense
Total Defense-1.0#201
First Shot+1.9#114
After Offensive Rebounds-2.9#328
Layups/Dunks+1.6#115
2 Pt Jumpshots-6.8#361
3 Pt Jumpshots+5.5#26
Freethrows+1.6#96
Improvement-0.6#237
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 1.7% 3.1% 1.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.6 14.0 14.7
.500 or above 15.6% 34.9% 13.3%
.500 or above in Conference 26.6% 40.0% 25.0%
Conference Champion 1.1% 2.2% 1.0%
Last Place in Conference 19.6% 9.9% 20.8%
First Four0.2% 0.0% 0.3%
First Round1.6% 3.1% 1.4%
Second Round0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Tulsa (Away) - 10.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 21 - 41 - 5
Quad 33 - 83 - 13
Quad 47 - 611 - 19


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Tue, Nov 11 155 Arkansas St. L 85-86 44%     0 - 1 -4.0 +0.6 -4.5
  Sat, Nov 15 190 @Texas Arlington L 49-67 30%     0 - 2 -17.1 -20.3 +2.7
  Sat, Nov 22 213 UT Rio Grande Valley W 74-67 56%     1 - 2 +0.8 +5.8 -4.2
  Mon, Nov 24 230 LIU Brooklyn L 61-75 60%     1 - 3 -21.0 -7.7 -15.0
  Sat, Dec 6 91 @Tulsa L 61-74 11%    
  Fri, Dec 12 77 @Xavier L 61-76 8%    
  Tue, Dec 16 311 Oral Roberts W 75-68 73%    
  Tue, Dec 23 246 Lindenwood W 71-68 62%    
  Mon, Dec 29 287 @Delaware L 66-67 48%    
  Fri, Jan 2 241 UTEP W 64-61 61%    
  Sun, Jan 4 116 New Mexico St. L 62-67 33%    
  Wed, Jan 7 162 @Kennesaw St. L 70-77 27%    
  Sat, Jan 10 207 Florida International W 70-69 55%    
  Wed, Jan 14 123 @Western Kentucky L 66-76 17%    
  Sat, Jan 17 138 @Middle Tennessee L 64-73 21%    
  Thu, Jan 22 116 @New Mexico St. L 59-70 17%    
  Sat, Jan 24 241 @UTEP L 61-64 40%    
  Wed, Jan 28 133 Sam Houston St. L 69-72 38%    
  Sat, Jan 31 238 Jacksonville St. W 64-61 60%    
  Sat, Feb 7 98 @Liberty L 61-74 13%    
  Thu, Feb 12 188 Louisiana Tech W 63-62 51%    
  Sat, Feb 14 287 Delaware W 69-64 68%    
  Wed, Feb 18 162 Kennesaw St. L 73-74 47%    
  Sat, Feb 21 207 @Florida International L 67-72 34%    
  Thu, Feb 26 188 @Louisiana Tech L 59-65 31%    
  Sat, Feb 28 133 @Sam Houston St. L 66-75 21%    
  Thu, Mar 5 123 Western Kentucky L 69-73 35%    
  Sat, Mar 7 138 Middle Tennessee L 67-70 39%    
Projected Record 10 - 18 8 - 12




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference USA Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 1.1 1st
2nd 0.0 0.3 0.7 0.9 0.5 0.1 0.0 2.5 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.3 1.1 1.4 0.7 0.1 0.0 3.7 3rd
4th 0.0 0.3 1.7 2.1 0.7 0.1 0.0 4.9 4th
5th 0.0 0.4 1.9 2.7 1.2 0.1 0.0 6.3 5th
6th 0.0 0.3 2.3 3.5 1.7 0.2 0.0 8.0 6th
7th 0.0 0.3 2.4 4.2 2.4 0.2 9.5 7th
8th 0.0 0.3 2.6 5.4 2.5 0.5 0.0 11.3 8th
9th 0.0 0.5 3.1 5.0 3.5 0.7 0.0 12.9 9th
10th 0.1 0.9 3.0 5.5 3.4 0.7 0.0 13.5 10th
11th 0.0 0.3 1.4 4.0 4.7 2.8 0.5 0.0 13.8 11th
12th 0.3 1.2 2.4 3.5 3.2 1.5 0.4 0.0 12.5 12th
Total 0.3 1.2 2.8 4.9 8.1 9.7 12.0 11.9 12.4 10.1 8.5 6.6 4.9 3.0 1.9 1.0 0.4 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 Total



Conference USA Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
19-1 100.0% 0.0    0.0
18-2 100.0% 0.1    0.1 0.0
17-3 66.7% 0.1    0.1 0.0
16-4 65.8% 0.2    0.2 0.1 0.0
15-5 39.8% 0.4    0.2 0.2 0.1
14-6 9.6% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
13-7 2.7% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.4% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 1.1% 1.1 0.5 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.0% 0.0
19-1 0.0% 0.0
18-2 0.1% 33.3% 33.3% 12.8 0.0 0.0 0.1
17-3 0.1% 18.5% 18.5% 12.6 0.0 0.0 0.1
16-4 0.4% 20.7% 20.7% 13.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3
15-5 1.0% 15.6% 15.6% 13.5 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.9
14-6 1.9% 10.0% 10.0% 13.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 1.7
13-7 3.0% 9.7% 9.7% 14.2 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.0 2.7
12-8 4.9% 5.6% 5.6% 14.6 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 4.7
11-9 6.6% 3.5% 3.5% 14.9 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 6.4
10-10 8.5% 2.0% 2.0% 15.5 0.1 0.1 8.3
9-11 10.1% 1.0% 1.0% 15.9 0.0 0.1 10.0
8-12 12.4% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.1 12.3
7-13 11.9% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 11.9
6-14 12.0% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 12.0
5-15 9.7% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 9.7
4-16 8.1% 8.1
3-17 4.9% 4.9
2-18 2.8% 2.8
1-19 1.2% 1.2
0-20 0.3% 0.3
Total 100% 1.7% 1.7% 0.0% 14.6 0.1 0.2 0.6 0.4 0.4 98.3 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.1%