Sam Houston St.
Conference USA
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +2.5 #124
Expected Predictive Rating +3.3 #112
Pace 74.2 #56
Improvement -0.7 #222

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #121 C+ C+ C- D- C
Defense #145 C C+ C C- C

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 39% #161 1.16 #171 +0.2 #168
2 Pt. Jumpers 21% #167 0.74 #197 -0.1 #178
Three Pointers 40% #193 1.13 #41 +2.0 #114
1st FG Attempt 1.06 #119 +2.2 #117
Freethrows 14.7 #321 72% #187 10.6 #311
Second Chance 36.9% #30 0.96 #289 0.35 #104
Turnovers 17.2% #230
Total Offense +1.8 #121

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 35% #271 1.25 #286 +0.2 #166
2 Pt. Jumpers 18% #246 0.74 #140 +1.0 #112
Three Pointers 46% #47 0.92 #69 -0.5 #199
1st FG Attempt 1.00 #157 +0.8 #157
Freethrows 19.1 #261 70% #70 13.4 #225
Second Chance 30.5% #175 0.97 #82 0.30 #118
Turnovers 16.8% #163
Total Defense +0.6 #145

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 0.0% #193 0.2% #176
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 4.2% #108 -1.7% #152
Possession Length 15.9 #51 17.0 #135
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.23 #43 0.17 #188
Improvement -1.5 #270 +0.9 #130

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 14.7% 16.0% 11.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 12.9 12.9 13.2
.500 or above 94.3% 97.0% 87.8%
.500 or above in Conference 90.1% 94.4% 79.8%
Conference Champion 3.2% 4.1% 1.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.1% 0.0% 0.2%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round14.7% 16.0% 11.4%
Second Round1.0% 1.2% 0.6%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Western Kentucky (Home) - 70.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 30 - 5
Quad 38 - 58 - 11
Quad 410 - 118 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Fri, Nov 7 15 @Texas Tech L 77 - 98 5% -8  0 - 1 +0 +13 C+ A+ F -13 B- F C+
 Sat, Nov 15 104 @Utah L 79 - 85 31% -9  0 - 2 +2 +3 D+ D B -2 C B+ A+
 Wed, Nov 19 108 Wyoming W 78 - 70 55% +3  1 - 2 +9 +3 D A+ F +6 C A+ A
 Wed, Nov 26 219 Idaho St. W 84 - 81 72% +1  2 - 2 -0 +4 C A+ D- -5 F A+ A+
 Fri, Nov 28 183 Idaho W 94 - 68 65% +4  3 - 2 +24 +29 A+ A+ A+ -2 C- C+ D+
 Tue, Dec 2 61 @Oklahoma St. L 83 - 93 18% -0  3 - 3 +2 +5 A F C -2 B- F A+
 Sat, Dec 6 335 @Texas Southern W 82 - 70 84% +6  4 - 3 +4 -4 F F F +7 A+ C C+
 Wed, Dec 17 195 @Oregon St. W 85 - 75 57% +8  5 - 3 +11 +7 C+ B+ F +3 C A+ F
 Sun, Dec 21 133 @New Mexico St. L 78 - 87 42% -13  5 - 4 0 - 1 -4 +1 D D C -5 F B+ F
 Fri, Jan 2 162 @Western Kentucky L 91 - 102 49% +1  5 - 5 0 - 2 -8 +12 C A B -19 C- F B+
 Sun, Jan 4 128 @Middle Tennessee L 67 - 68 40% -5  5 - 6 0 - 3 +4 -0 A- C+ F +4 C A+ D+
 Thu, Jan 8 295 Delaware W 72 - 60 89% +7  6 - 6 1 - 3 +1 +3 D C A+ -0 B+ B F
 Sat, Jan 10 94 Liberty L 74 - 82 50% -5  6 - 7 1 - 4 -5 -2 C+ D- F -4 D- B A+
 Wed, Jan 14 216 @Jacksonville St. W 77 - 62 61% +7  7 - 7 2 - 4 +15 +14 A+ A- F +2 B+ B- D-
 Sat, Jan 17 192 @Florida International W 76 - 63 56% +7  8 - 7 3 - 4 +14 -2 C F D- +15 A+ A+ A+
 Wed, Jan 21 150 Kennesaw St. W 93 - 87 68% +5  9 - 7 4 - 4 +4 +14 A+ B- A -11 C D F
 Sat, Jan 24 162 Western Kentucky W 84 - 78 71%
 Wed, Jan 28 179 @Missouri St. W 75 - 74 53%
 Sat, Jan 31 228 Louisiana Tech W 73 - 64 81%
 Wed, Feb 4 256 UTEP W 79 - 68 84%
 Sat, Feb 7 228 @Louisiana Tech W 70 - 67 62%
 Sat, Feb 14 150 @Kennesaw St. L 83 - 84 45%
 Wed, Feb 18 128 Middle Tennessee W 76 - 73 63%
 Sat, Feb 21 216 Jacksonville St. W 77 - 68 79%
 Thu, Feb 26 192 Florida International W 86 - 78 76%
 Sat, Feb 28 179 Missouri St. W 78 - 71 74%
 Thu, Mar 5 295 @Delaware W 75 - 68 74%
 Sat, Mar 7 94 @Liberty L 73 - 79 29%
Totals 17 - 11 12 - 8 +2 +2 C+ C+ C- +1 C C+ C




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference USA Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 0.9 1.5 0.7 3.2 1st
2nd 0.2 2.9 8.8 9.4 3.7 0.5 25.5 2nd
3rd 0.1 2.6 10.1 8.8 2.4 0.2 0.0 24.3 3rd
4th 0.0 1.0 7.4 7.0 1.3 0.0 16.8 4th
5th 0.2 4.1 6.2 1.4 0.0 11.9 5th
6th 0.0 1.5 4.8 1.5 0.1 7.9 6th
7th 0.3 2.8 1.9 0.1 5.1 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 1.0 1.6 0.2 2.9 8th
9th 0.3 0.9 0.3 0.0 1.5 9th
10th 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.0 0.7 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 0.0 12th
Total 0.0 0.2 0.8 2.5 6.4 12.1 18.0 21.5 19.2 12.7 5.4 1.1 Total



Conference USA Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4 57.0% 0.7    0.4 0.3 0.0
15-5 27.6% 1.5    0.5 0.9 0.1 0.0
14-6 6.8% 0.9    0.1 0.4 0.3 0.0 0.0
13-7 1.0% 0.2    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0% 0.0    0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 3.2% 3.2 1.0 1.6 0.5 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4 1.1% 31.1% 31.1% 11.6 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.8
15-5 5.4% 28.3% 28.3% 12.3 0.1 1.0 0.5 0.0 3.9
14-6 12.7% 23.4% 23.4% 12.6 0.0 1.4 1.4 0.2 0.0 9.7
13-7 19.2% 19.5% 19.5% 12.9 0.0 1.0 2.2 0.5 0.0 15.5
12-8 21.5% 14.5% 14.5% 13.1 0.5 1.8 0.9 0.0 18.3
11-9 18.0% 10.2% 10.2% 13.4 0.2 0.9 0.7 0.1 16.2
10-10 12.1% 5.9% 5.9% 13.6 0.0 0.3 0.4 0.1 11.4
9-11 6.4% 4.5% 4.5% 14.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 6.1
8-12 2.5% 3.4% 3.4% 15.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 2.4
7-13 0.8% 2.6% 2.6% 16.0 0.0 0.8
6-14 0.2% 0.2
5-15 0.0% 0.0
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 14.7% 14.7% 0.0% 12.9 85.3 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.4% 100.0% 11.6 46.5 49.3 4.2
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.2%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.3%