Sam Houston St.
Conference USA
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +2.7 121
Expected Predictive Rating +3.4 107
Pace 74.7 38
Improvement -0.6 210

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense C+ #120 C+ B- C D C+
Defense C #145 C+ C C+ C- C

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 42% 103 58% 183 +1.6 119
2 Pt. Jumpers 21% 179 36% 245 -0.3 200
Three Pointers 38% 250 37% 54 +0.2 168
1st FG Attempt 1.05 130 +1.4 128
Second Chance 35.2% 57 0.99 224 0.35 98
Turnovers 17.3% 203
Freethrows 0.27 300 71% 239 0.19 302
Total Offense +1.9 120

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 37% 244 61% 263 +0.1 179
2 Pt. Jumpers 20% 196 39% 207 +0.2 172
Three Pointers 44% 97 31% 50 +0.9 145
1st FG Attempt 1.00 137 +1.1 137
Second Chance 30.6% 184 1.05 221 0.32 212
Turnovers 17.5% 142
Freethrows 0.33 258 70% 79 0.23 232
Total Defense +0.8 145

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Selection +0.2 165 +0.0 159
Shot Type Accuracy +1.1 127 -1.0 141
Possession Length 16.0 59 16.9 116
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.25 27 0.17 188
Improvement -1.7 #287 +1.1 #119

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 20% 23% 18%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 13.0 12.8 13.1
.500 or above 99% 100% 99%
.500 or above in Conference 99% 100% 98%
Conference Champion 0% 1% 0%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0%
First Four0% 0% 0%
First Round20% 23% 18%
Second Round1% 1% 1%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%

Next Game: Kennesaw St. (Away) - 48.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 1
Quad 20 - 30 - 4
Quad 38 - 59 - 9
Quad 410 - 219 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Fri, Nov 7 16 @Texas Tech L 77 - 98 5% -8  9% 0 - 1 C +0 A- +11 C A+ D F+ -10 B- F C+
 Sat, Nov 15 110 @Utah L 79 - 85 34% -9  5% 0 - 2 C +1 C +1 C- D B- C -0 C- B A
 Wed, Nov 19 106 Wyoming W 78 - 70 55% +3  86% 1 - 2 B +9 C +1 C- B F A- +8 C- A+ A
 Wed, Nov 26 250 Idaho St. W 84 - 81 77% +1  61% 2 - 2 C- -2 C +1 C- A+ D- C- -3 F+ A+ A+
 Fri, Nov 28 189 Idaho W 94 - 68 67% +4  56% 3 - 2 A+ +24 A+ +27 A+ A+ A+ C -0 D+ C- D
 Tue, Dec 2 59 @Oklahoma St. L 83 - 93 19% -0  49% 3 - 3 C+ +2 C+ +3 A F C+ C +0 C+ F A-
 Sat, Dec 6 309 @Texas Southern W 82 - 70 79% +6  71% 4 - 3 B- +6 D -6 F D D+ A +10 A+ C- B-
 Wed, Dec 17 178 @Oregon St. W 85 - 75 53% +8  97% 5 - 3 B+ +12 B +5 B- B D- B +6 C A D
 Sun, Dec 21 167 @New Mexico St. L 78 - 87 51% -13  3% 5 - 4 0 - 1 D+ -6 C- -2 D D+ C- D+ -4 F B- F
 Fri, Jan 2 160 @Western Kentucky L 91 - 102 50% +1  64% 5 - 5 0 - 2 D -8 A- +10 C+ B+ B F -17 D+ F B
 Sun, Jan 4 173 @Middle Tennessee L 67 - 68 52% -5  20% 5 - 6 0 - 3 C +1 D -5 B- B- F B+ +6 C A+ D+
 Thu, Jan 8 279 Delaware W 72 - 60 88% +7  99% 6 - 6 1 - 3 C+ +2 C +0 D C A B- +3 B+ B- F+
 Sat, Jan 10 95 Liberty L 74 - 82 51% -5  8% 6 - 7 1 - 4 D+ -6 D -5 C+ D F C -1 C- B- B+
 Wed, Jan 14 184 @Jacksonville St. W 77 - 62 55% +7  98% 7 - 7 2 - 4 A- +16 A +14 A+ B+ D- B +5 B B- D-
 Sat, Jan 17 188 @Florida International W 76 - 63 56% +7  93% 8 - 7 3 - 4 B+ +14 D+ -4 C D D- A+ +17 A+ A A+
 Wed, Jan 21 154 Kennesaw St. W 93 - 87 71% +5  93% 9 - 7 4 - 4 C+ +3 A +11 A+ B- A- D- -9 C- D F
 Sat, Jan 24 160 Western Kentucky W 73 - 58 72% +14  93% 10 - 7 5 - 4 B+ +12 C +1 D+ A+ A A +11 B+ F A+
 Wed, Jan 28 179 @Missouri St. W 80 - 71 53% +4  87% 11 - 7 6 - 4 B +11 B +7 B D+ D B- +4 C F+ C
 Sat, Jan 31 223 Louisiana Tech W 83 - 67 80% +6  92% 12 - 7 7 - 4 B +10 A +14 B- A+ A+ C- -3 A- F C+
 Wed, Feb 4 239 UTEP W 70 - 66 83% +4  86% 13 - 7 8 - 4 C- -3 D- -7 F B- B- B- +4 B A F
 Sat, Feb 7 223 @Louisiana Tech L 78 - 87 61% +0  51% 13 - 8 8 - 5 D -9 C- -1 B+ D- F+ D- -7 D- C- D
 Sat, Feb 14 154 @Kennesaw St. L 82 - 83 49%
 Wed, Feb 18 173 Middle Tennessee W 78 - 72 73%
 Sat, Feb 21 184 Jacksonville St. W 76 - 69 75%
 Thu, Feb 26 188 Florida International W 87 - 79 76%
 Sat, Feb 28 179 Missouri St. W 78 - 71 74%
 Thu, Mar 5 279 @Delaware W 76 - 69 73%
 Sat, Mar 7 95 @Liberty L 74 - 80 30%
Totals 17 - 11 12 - 8 +3 C+ +2 C+ B- C C +1 C+ C C+



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings C+ C C- B C+ 42% 21% 38% C+ C+ B C- B- C D C- D C D+ C B C+ 37% 20% 44% C C+ C C- C C+ C- B- C-
1.11 58% 36% 37% +1 0 1.05 35% 1.0 .35 17% .27 71% .19 1.07 61% 39% 31% -1 0 1.00 31% 1.0 .32 17% .33 70% .19
Nov
7		 Texas Tech A- D+ D- A+ C+ 28% 43% 28% F+ C A+ C A+ D A B A F+ C C- D B- 29% 20% 51% C B- F D+ F C+ F A F
1.09 53% 30% 40% -2 -4 0.91 45% 0.9 .43 20% .35 70% .25 1.39 62% 44% 39% +6 -1 1.13 50% 1.1 .55 16% .72 65% .47
Nov
15		 Utah C F B+ B C- 46% 18% 36% B- C- C- F+ D B- D- A+ C- C B- F C- C+ 48% 6% 46% F C- F A+ B A F F+ F
1.07 46% 45% 36% -3 +1 0.98 29% 0.8 .24 14% .20 85% .17 1.15 57% 67% 36% +3 +3 1.13 43% 0.6 .24 20% .51 80% .41
Nov
19		 Wyoming C B A F C 32% 23% 45% F+ C- A- C B F A+ A+ A+ A- F D+ A+ C- 46% 22% 32% B C- D+ A+ A+ A D- A+ A+
1.10 64% 50% 25% -1 -1 0.98 33% 0.9 .30 21% .59 88% .52 0.99 70% 45% 25% +3 0 1.08 39% 0.5 .18 21% .39 41% .16
Nov
26		 Idaho St. C F+ A C+ C- 38% 19% 43% C- C- A+ C- A+ D- A+ C+ A+ C- F F C+ F+ 34% 11% 55% C- F+ C A+ A+ A+ F D- F
1.16 50% 56% 35% +1 0 1.04 52% 1.1 .55 18% .47 79% .37 1.12 77% 50% 33% +7 +1 1.18 32% 0.6 .18 23% .74 78% .58
Nov
28		 Idaho A+ C C A+ A+ 30% 26% 44% D+ A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ F F+ F C F F B+ D+ 22% 10% 67% C+ D+ B- F+ C- D B- A+ A+
1.48 59% 40% 56% +15 -1 1.30 43% 1.3 .57 9% .16 67% .10 1.07 73% 60% 30% +2 0 1.06 25% 1.1 .28 14% .27 47% .13
Dec
2		 Oklahoma St. C+ B- A+ A A+ 25% 17% 58% D+ A B- F F C+ F A+ F+ C D C+ A+ B- 54% 11% 35% D+ C+ F F F A- F A- D-
1.05 60% 50% 40% +8 0 1.17 31% 0.3 .10 18% .17 82% .14 1.18 66% 33% 26% 0 +2 1.06 40% 1.4 .54 19% .44 68% .30
Dec
6		 Texas Southern D D F F F 55% 11% 34% B+ F C+ F D D+ A+ C A A B A+ A+ A+ 41% 19% 41% D- A+ D+ C+ C- B- F D F
1.03 55% 17% 22% -10 +2 0.87 35% 0.9 .33 18% .49 72% .35 0.88 50% 18% 21% -15 0 0.73 29% 1.0 .29 19% .44 75% .33
Dec
17		 Oregon St. B C- D B C+ 46% 12% 42% B B- A- D+ B D- B C B B F A+ A C 24% 15% 62% C+ C A+ F A D A- B A
1.14 54% 33% 36% -1 +2 1.04 41% 0.9 .38 17% .37 74% .28 1.01 92% 25% 26% -1 0 1.00 11% 1.8 .20 15% .30 74% .22
Dec
21		 New Mexico St. C- F A+ C F+ 38% 14% 48% B+ D B+ F D+ C- B F C D+ C- F D+ F 41% 23% 36% F+ F A+ F B- F A+ C- A+
1.05 33% 50% 33% -8 +1 0.88 38% 0.8 .31 16% .42 69% .29 1.17 60% 64% 36% +8 0 1.18 21% 1.3 .27 9% .16 73% .12
Jan
2		 Western Kentucky A- B+ C C B- 33% 25% 43% C C+ A C+ B+ B F C- F F B- A- C- C- 35% 13% 53% D+ D+ F F F B F C- F
1.18 65% 40% 35% +3 -1 1.07 39% 0.9 .34 15% .29 68% .20 1.32 47% 29% 34% -4 +1 0.95 49% 1.5 .73 17% .42 74% .31
Jan
4		 Middle Tennessee D F+ A A+ B- 51% 27% 22% C B- B C B- F F F F B+ A+ C+ F C- 26% 30% 44% A- C A- A+ A+ D+ A F C+
0.98 48% 46% 45% +1 0 1.04 31% 1.0 .31 25% .23 67% .16 1.00 43% 38% 46% +4 -2 1.06 23% 0.2 .05 15% .17 90% .15
Jan
8		 Delaware C B+ F C- D- 35% 25% 40% C D B+ D- C A B A+ A- B- F A+ A- A- 27% 10% 63% D+ B+ B- C+ B- F+ C+ A B
1.15 67% 15% 33% -3 -1 0.94 37% 0.8 .29 10% .32 89% .28 0.96 69% 20% 29% -3 0 0.96 17% 0.8 .14 14% .22 67% .15
Jan
10		 Liberty D F A+ A+ C 46% 16% 38% B+ C+ A- F D F C+ A- B C D- F B- C- 58% 6% 36% D C- A+ F B- B+ F F F
1.04 35% 75% 42% 0 +1 1.04 40% 0.8 .31 22% .25 79% .20 1.15 69% 67% 33% +8 +3 1.24 8% 2.0 .16 17% .39 78% .30
Jan
14		 Jacksonville St. A A+ F A+ A+ 49% 11% 40% A- A+ C+ A+ B+ D- F F+ F B B+ F A B+ 47% 13% 40% C B C+ B- B- D- C+ B+ B-
1.24 74% 20% 47% +14 +2 1.34 30% 1.3 .39 19% .14 71% .10 1.00 48% 50% 28% -7 +2 0.91 29% 0.9 .26 14% .36 63% .23
Jan
17		 Florida International D+ A+ F D C+ 29% 20% 51% D C D+ D D D- A+ F C+ A+ A+ A+ D- A+ 37% 21% 42% B- A+ C A+ A A+ F A- F
1.01 73% 30% 31% +1 -1 1.02 33% 0.9 .30 23% .45 54% .24 0.84 25% 11% 39% -15 0 0.72 32% 0.7 .22 24% .68 62% .42
Jan
21		 Kennesaw St. A A+ F A+ A+ 41% 23% 36% D+ A+ F+ A+ B- A- F F F D- D A+ D- D+ 33% 21% 47% A C- C- D D F A- D B
1.26 74% 23% 50% +12 0 1.25 22% 1.6 .34 12% .29 63% .19 1.18 63% 17% 37% -1 0 1.00 36% 1.1 .38 11% .29 74% .21
Jan
24		 Western Kentucky C C C- F D- 49% 16% 35% A D+ C A+ A+ A D F F A B+ A+ B+ A- 37% 14% 49% D+ B+ B F F A+ D+ C- D
1.09 56% 38% 28% -4 +1 0.96 28% 1.6 .46 13% .34 40% .14 0.87 44% 17% 29% -12 +1 0.79 29% 1.4 .41 28% .33 75% .25
Jan
28		 Missouri St. B A+ D+ C- B 43% 33% 24% B- B C+ F+ D+ D C- C C- B- F B+ F D 27% 43% 31% A+ C A- F F+ C B- B+ B
1.16 77% 35% 33% +7 -1 1.14 34% 0.9 .31 20% .35 74% .26 1.03 77% 29% 40% +4 -4 1.02 26% 1.7 .44 17% .32 61% .19
Jan
31		 Louisiana Tech A B- C F C+ 59% 17% 24% B+ B- B+ A A+ A+ A+ F+ A+ C- A C+ A B+ 36% 30% 34% A- A- D- F F C+ F+ C+ D-
1.28 59% 38% 27% -2 +2 1.02 39% 1.3 .52 9% .61 67% .41 1.03 41% 36% 25% -11 -1 0.77 41% 1.3 .54 18% .36 63% .23
Feb
4		 UTEP D- F+ F F F 47% 16% 37% A- F C+ B- B- B- A B+ A+ B- B F A+ B- 29% 41% 31% A- B A A+ A F B+ D+ B
1.00 48% 13% 22% -15 +1 0.73 36% 1.1 .40 17% .47 78% .36 0.95 53% 46% 22% -4 -3 0.88 19% 0.8 .14 9% .22 71% .16
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Feb
7		 Louisiana Tech C- F B- A+ A- 30% 22% 48% D- B+ F A+ D- F+ C+ C- C+ D- D F A+ D 60% 17% 23% F D- F B C- D F F F
1.02 38% 42% 46% +4 -1 1.07 18% 1.5 .26 21% .35 71% .25 1.14 59% 67% 8% -3 +2 1.00 43% 0.7 .31 16% .54 74% .40



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference USA Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.2 0.4 1st
2nd 0.0 1.5 13.7 25.7 17.8 4.5 63.1 2nd
3rd 0.2 5.8 11.2 2.9 0.1 20.1 3rd
4th 1.3 5.7 2.2 0.1 9.3 4th
5th 0.1 2.4 2.0 0.1 4.5 5th
6th 0.0 0.4 1.2 0.1 1.7 6th
7th 0.0 0.4 0.2 0.6 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.2 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.1 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
Total 0.1 1.0 5.3 15.1 27.2 28.7 17.9 4.7 Total



Conference USA Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5 4.9% 0.2    0.0 0.2
14-6 0.7% 0.1    0.0 0.1
13-7 0.0%
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 0.4% 0.4 0.0 0.3



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5 4.7% 30.3% 30.3% 12.1 0.2 1.0 0.2 3.3
14-6 17.9% 27.3% 27.3% 12.6 0.0 2.1 2.4 0.4 13.0
13-7 28.7% 22.7% 22.7% 13.0 1.5 3.9 1.2 0.0 22.2
12-8 27.2% 18.6% 18.6% 13.3 0.6 2.6 1.8 0.1 22.1
11-9 15.1% 11.9% 11.9% 13.5 0.1 0.8 0.8 0.1 13.3
10-10 5.3% 8.2% 8.2% 13.6 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.0 4.8
9-11 1.0% 3.8% 3.8% 15.3 0.0 0.0 1.0
8-12 0.1% 0.0 0.1
7-13
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 20.2% 20.2% 0.0% 13.0 79.8 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 1.4% 100.0% 12.1 10.6 73.2 16.2
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 1.1%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 1.0%